Open 857 | Frienemies | Postgame

[Aristeia]

it once again feels like everyone around me is playing 5d chess while i'm playing tic tac toe

i'm giving up on this for the night, see y'all tomorrow

I want to play tic tac toe with you dats <3

[Aristeia]

I feel that the VPB shot points to scum believing that the wagon was mason-driven because scum have to shoot masons to win this game, there is no other way they can really win if they do not shoot the masons. it also implies imo that scum will continue to shoot on the wagon to hunt where they believe the masons are - which means they will be narrowing things down for us in the future. If we wagon people on the wagon, we're kind of doing their work for them ~whereas if we hunt off wagon, we can let scum do our work for us and shoot people on the wagon.

from a scum POV a wagon of 7 that is heavily mason could have [2-3 masons] on it which leaves a leftover POE of [4-5 unknowns] whenever they miss a shot in the POE they are making the leftover POE on wagon smaller - [4-5] -> [3-4] which is not good for them if they are bussing or heavily bussing - typically I don't think scum teams are comfortable squeezing their own POE like that - it feels somewhat uncomfortable.

this was also more or less the realization i had and my thought process for why i wanted to hunt off wagon, which i didn't really want to get into the discussion of too heavily, but since it's been said now, yea i agree with this

I mean I don't see why the scum team wouldn't think this so I think it's fine to say out loud.

[Aristeia]

Vote Count 1.06

Malakittens (4):

Aristeia, Datisi, implosion, Andante

Vulture (2):

PenguinPower, hutmeil

Gamma Emerald (2):

fireisredsir, Malakittens

Andante (2):

Gamma Emerald, VP Baltar

Datisi (1):

GeorgeBailey

Not Voting (2):

Something_Smart, Vulture

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is July 8 at 5:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-07-08 17:00:00)

Notes:

PenguinPower is V/LA on weekends.

vc is here

vp switches to ari in 1038

gamma switches to me in 1040

that puts it at 4 on mala, 2 on vulture, 2 on gamma, and 1 each on datisi, ari, and me. there's a lot of lingering suspicion on hut around but no active wagon. gamma and vulture don't really have widespread support

georgebailey shows up and votes hut in 1067. i join the new hut wagon partly cause im starting to doubt my gamma read. ari votes me in 1077

penguin votes hut in 1079. penguin is under no real pressure atp, but if mala is scum then he would want to try to push an alternate wagon. i think he did make a mistake here, and may have lived if he voted me (he had the trajectory for it too, he was voting me earlier). but probably he judged that the hut wagon was more likely to go far since a few people had suspicion there that they hadnt acted on and im more talkative generally and might be hard to push.

i think these two votes were intended to try to push the hut wagon not above penguin, but above mala, because again, there was no penguin wagon yet. the penguin wagon came in response

there's also a good case in here for me+mala+peng which would be why he voted me instead of hut, which, okay whatever, ik that's wrong but i don't blame ari for seeing it. i think that george just kinda looked for a direction to go for a counter, found one, and then penguin hopped on as well after i did

a lot of the suspicion on penguin is now because he voted hut over me. switching to me suddenly will now draw a ton of scrutiny. so by the time it hits 1407 it's just too late, i think that's part of why scum didn't try to shift over to me

This is a sensible interpretation of how things went down.

[fireisredsir]

I mean I don't see why the scum team wouldn't think this so I think it's fine to say out loud.

yes that's fair, i tend to be overly cautious about such things but i think this is just a win anyway tbh

unless i have things completely upside down

which has been known to happen in the past

[fireisredsir]

ari have you considered the idea that if im scum with mala then your 1118 doesn't apply and therefore im not scum :>

[fireisredsir]

Malakittens (4): Aristeia, Datisi, implosion, Andante

Penguins vote on hutmeil was the third. This was the leading wagon.

When asked for his reasoning why he voted hutmeil, he said he had none and that he just liked wagons.

Well, let me say this in simple terms: That makes no sense when there was a larger wagon available.

Its a made up reason. If penguin wants to come admit that, I'll take the honesty under consideration.

Mala was at 3 when I voted hut. Ari had voted fire. I went from a 2 vote to create an equal counter wagon.

Anyway - I’ll be back in the morning to catch up on what I’ve missed.

Coming back to this with what I wanted to say since you didn't actually follow up: Why did you want to create an equal counter wagon instead of making a wagon on Mala (who you now think is scum I guess???) the lead wagon?

i like competing wagons for looking back on after a flip. seeing how they rise/fall, which one takes off, and how hard it is to get momentum on is good info.

So wouldn't it make sense for you to be voting hut here?

I know you say you don't have strong reads, but you were decidedly leaning scum on that slot before you switched to mala...

i think that this set of posts may have also contributed to vp dying. he saw the inconsistency with penguin not voting mala earlier when it was a lead wagon, and then voting mala when he was going to die, but hadn't quite publicly made the connection that penguin scum implies mala scum. but i think he probably would have gotten there if he had lived to morning

[Aristeia]

ari have you considered the idea that if im scum with mala then your 1118 doesn't apply and therefore im not scum :>

oh I forgot about that point because I was focusing on who made sense to be partner'd with Penguin and doing VCA.

I don't think it's impossible for scum!you to hardshield scum!mala tho I guess it might be unlikely?

[fireisredsir]

i think as scum of the set of [scumreads on town, townreads on scum, scumreads on scum, townreads on scum] im by far the worst at making townreads on scum, and that was prob my weakest link during invictus

[Malakittens]

I mean I think I been pretty *okay* at spotting town!gamma from scum!gamma. As I already mentioned I don't think Andante/Gamma share the same alignment and I feel like one of them are more than likely scum.

If i had to do a 3:1 EoL with them - id pick gamma for the scum over andante.

so i dont think gamma is a bad vote

Again, Am I wrong tho? I had you right in schadd's game even tho I was an alt. Then you replaced out and I felt bad, but i still remained tunneled on your slot.

You have a weird non-passion when you are playing scum. I don't see passion here, but I saw a hint when you were interacting with andante, but then it felt flat

I could be wrong. Maybe you are both town then, but i seriously doubt it.

Also it doesn't seem like you are doing much to sort me so w/e

[Malakittens]

VOTE: Gamma

Going back to this.

Again if I had a choice between Andante Gamma i'd yeet gamma b/c i think andante is town so

[Malakittens]

std feels town. I just recently played with a scum std x2 and this does not resemble the play in those games

[implosion]

Mala, how do you feel about STD's 1705/1709?

[implosion]

And also, do you have any feelings on how yesterday ultimately went down? On the Penguin wagon, or the hutmeil counterwagon, or the late counterwagon on you? It feels like most analysis so far today has focused on the wagonomics of yesterday, and you haven't touched on that discussion.

[fireisredsir]

Again if I had a choice between Andante Gamma i'd yeet gamma b/c i think andante is town so

what if nobody is actually offering that choice and there isn't really any reason to be choosing between those two names

[Datisi]

okay, after sleeping for some 5 hours and ingesting some caffeine, i can at least

understand

the points that fire and ari are making

i don't think the points are 100%, because "a wagon being mason-led" is not something i would ever think of, but maybe that's because i didn't have to think about it last night. it would be a possible explanation for the way the penguin wagon went and seemingly didn't budge, so there's that i guess.

i'm not going to follow the vca like gospel, but i'll take it into account. it's looking like a slow day at work, so i'll try to get some rereading done

[Datisi]

oh, also, if anyone could really dumb down the difference between this std and scum!std for me, that would be grand

[fireisredsir]

i still think his entrance was really towny. he felt excited to be posting and solving things and sorting people. and even when he was making Good Posts as scum they were mostly reactive, here he's being more proactive

and also vulture was town

you seem to mostly have issue with him relying mostly on gut reads but thats just kinda how he likes to play

he's also locktown for 1700 cause it was hilarious but i didn't want to say so at the time bc andante seemed annoyed

[fireisredsir]

imo i had the right idea with this post: viewtopic.php?p=13366432#p13366432

and i think his play in that game up to that point looks v different from here. this has the town energy that was lacking there. maybe he's just putting major effort into faking it but i don't really believe that

[Datisi]

you seem to mostly have issue with him relying mostly on gut reads but thats just kinda how he likes to play

i don't have issues with gut reads, i use them a lot too

my issue is that his progression on penguin looks really similar to his progression on me in coalition, and i have 3(?) people yelling at me that std is town because ~reasons i don't understand~ because i don't find his play townie

maybe if i'd actually been reading his posts in coalition, i'd know, but meh

[fireisredsir]

idk i just went back and reread and i don't think the progression is similar at all

there he was almost entirely focused on his mena tunnel, only ever really pushed back on you a tiny bit for your mena towncase, and then went "I dunno I dunno I dunno" and voted you. there wasn't ever really much of any talking about how you could be scum before that.

here he gave actual reasons for penguin being scum and helped push momentum in that direction using his words and not just his vote. and his vote in [post[1492[/post[ was a direct response to penguin acting scummy af right before that, and not a response to other people trying to convince him to vote there

[Datisi]

VOTE: vulture

this was when he decided to tie vulture's wagon with baltar's rather than vote for baltar to make him a leading wagon

maybe this is miniature town points for std? not sure

[Datisi]

idk i just went back and reread and i don't think the progression is similar at all

there he was almost entirely focused on his mena tunnel, only ever really pushed back on you a tiny bit for your mena towncase, and then went "I dunno I dunno I dunno" and voted you. there wasn't ever really much of any talking about how you could be scum before that.

here he gave actual reasons for penguin being scum and helped push momentum in that direction using his words and not just his vote. and his vote in [post[1492[/post[ was a direct response to penguin acting scummy af right before that, and not a response to other people trying to convince him to vote there

the way i see it is

in coalition, after our early shitfight for the ~*distance*~, he was lightly townreading me without much conviction, in a way that made him able to jump onto me there if needed, but while primarily pushing mena - then when shit hit the fan, he voted me

that's how i feel about his scumread on penguin here, while he was pushing fire

in what way do you think he helped push momentum towards penguin?

[fireisredsir]

is this really happening

calling out the mala counterwagon

penguin is doing nothing just shitposting. i thought his entrance was townie just on vibes but after seeing nothing happening with the slot i'm slowly getting more and more convinced it's just a scum slot doing nothing and lurking.

mala's attempts at catching up have seemed town, they remind me of the coalition game

saying "no, we should stay on penguin, and here's why"

actually pengu is probably just scum here for describing his town meta honestly but not doing it

after a few posts of considering mala, and even saying maybe andante is just right in 1532, comes back and is like "nah nvm heres another reason why penguin is scum"

pengu also was like "i don't care if you tr me" in the guardians of the fortress game i just helped to bungle but he's got none of that energy here

and then another reason that nobody else has mentioned yet (i talked about it, but with a different interpretation)



it just feels like he's sorting penguin live and you can see it happening, and he's openly sharing these thoughts and moving the conversation forward. there was none of that during that eod in coalition. like yea this is all after penguin is at e-1 and is likely the flip, but he just seems really comfortable to be here having this conversation about whether we should flip someone who would be his partner if he's scum, and giving actual good reasons for why, and i think its more likely that he's just town

[Datisi]

this is all after penguin is at e-1 and is likely the flip

this was going to be my response lol

i'm gonna take a look at eod coalition ig

[Aristeia]

i want penguin to catch up, i might vote there instead

probably not voting for hutmeil

this is the first time STD says he is considering voting Peng


this is right after SS ties the wagons at 5-5 and unvotes a bit later after I push him about not hammering.

so essentially he is making it 6-5 and it's kind of an important vote imo cuz it is kind of up in the air which one of them will be flipped.

it isn't like Coalition because realistically you were not going to flip bloodhail when he bussed you