Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[MalcolmTucker]

Hiw did you forget, people have been telling you all day?

I feel like it's maybe been mentioned a couple of times at best? And I didn't make the immediate connection between doctor>scum doctor protects whoever I target.

[Datisi]

vote count 3.10

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2022-08-02 23:30:00).

yeet

MalcolmTucker [4]:

Unsure, UNOwen, geraintm, Vivax

Enchant [3]:

Prince of Paterson, Greeting, MalcolmTucker

Prince of Paterson [3]:

Lowell, Malakittens, Andante

Malakittens [1]:

Firebringer

not voting [2]:

Crescent, Enchant

mod notes

~ Lowell is v/la till wednesday
~ this is a mod note.

flavour

[MalcolmTucker]

Sorry, I haven't had a chance to catch up yet. I will be able to do so in about 2 hours. I see there's been a lot of activity but I'd like to read the full context first. From the bits and pieces that I have read, though, I think that despite there being clear issues with Malcolm's play and how it connects to his claimed role, a part of me has trouble believing that scum would manage to do both of these:

a) recognize that this specific fakeclaim with this specific modifier makes sense with the setup (mafia doctor and gunsmith(s)) when it's a rather unusual role
b) not understand the implications of what the role would mean and how it could be used

This thought might be outdated, but it is my immediate reaction. More later.

I'll also add that I think this post is probably coming from town. Much as I doubt momentum will shift now Prince has been floated as a possible counterwagon at times and it's probably in the best interests of scum to get me out the game. Scum may want to position themselves against the wagon to look more prescient when I come back town but I'm not sure Prince is the member of a scum team to do that here.

[Andante]

VOTE: Lowell

[Malakittens]

Nooo andant eye on the prize

[MalcolmTucker]

Nevermind I see it.

VOTE: meg

This is an ISO read of someone who wanted to have a fun game but is disappointed to have drawn scum.

Malcolm also a good vote. Chipping at the edges of ideas without ideas.

VOTE: Meg. Here's a good wagon.

Fancy and prince are also scum.

This is pretty attacking from Lowell early on if scum. They were consistently going after Meg right from the start. First one is five posts in.

[Andante]

VOTE: Prince

[Crescent]

Gonna be honest seeing Andante changing votes like every 5 posts is making my head spin. I'm having a slow, mistake filled shift because I burned too much of my limited sleep energy on this earlier so that's fun.

Would vote Mala before Prince at this point in a second. Her only reason to ever vote him to begin with was "Enchant isn't scum". She has no reason to be clinging so hard to it, as she's never actually indicated any belief that he is scum.

But yeah decisions have to be made and I might collapse as soon as I get home.

[UNOwen]

For about the fifth time, scumreads can be wrong, especially D1. I'm not going to apologise for refusing to accidentally vig a doctor or some other important role D1 when they'd have had no chance to claim.

Not going to risk shooting an important role on N1, especially after a scum flip. No way.

Well yes, if the town want me to shoot overnight without revealing my target, I am open to doing that. This is not a contradictory or difficult to understand stance.

Sure I'll risk shooting an important role on N3, np.

[UNOwen]

vote count 2.09

with 15 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2022-07-27 13:15:00).

yeet

Malakittens [5]:

Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, Enchant, Unsure, Vivax

Fredrick A Campbell [4]:

Prince of Paterson, UNOwen, Andante, Lowell

Enchant [1]:

Fredrick A Campbel

Unsure [1]:

Greeting

Firebringer [1]:

geraintm

not voting [3]:

MalcolmTucker, Malakittens, Crescent

Is it still Fred or what? This wagon keeps getting to the end and dying. Let’s do it

VOTE: Fred

...

VOTE: Lowell

Nooo andant eye on the prize

Nevermind I see it.

VOTE: meg

This is an ISO read of someone who wanted to have a fun game but is disappointed to have drawn scum.

Malcolm also a good vote. Chipping at the edges of ideas without ideas.

VOTE: Meg. Here's a good wagon.

Fancy and prince are also scum.

This is pretty attacking from Lowell early on if scum. They were consistently going after Meg right from the start. First one is five posts in.

[MalcolmTucker]

For about the fifth time, scumreads can be wrong, especially D1. I'm not going to apologise for refusing to accidentally vig a doctor or some other important role D1 when they'd have had no chance to claim.

Not going to risk shooting an important role on N1, especially after a scum flip. No way.

Well yes, if the town want me to shoot overnight without revealing my target, I am open to doing that. This is not a contradictory or difficult to understand stance.

Sure I'll risk shooting an important role on N3, np.

You don't see the difference between a scumread on N1 and N3? We have much more info now than before.

[Prince of Paterson]

That's a very tempting solve, Owen. I'll take back my townread on Mala, at the very least, because I don't think it makes any sense to vote me due to sheeping her townread of Andante (1852), and then when Andante moves somewhere else, instead of following she tells Andante to stay where she was. That's not a town trajectory.

Catching up now.

[UNOwen]

For about the fifth time, scumreads can be wrong, especially D1. I'm not going to apologise for refusing to accidentally vig a doctor or some other important role D1 when they'd have had no chance to claim.

Not going to risk shooting an important role on N1, especially after a scum flip. No way.

Well yes, if the town want me to shoot overnight without revealing my target, I am open to doing that. This is not a contradictory or difficult to understand stance.

Sure I'll risk shooting an important role on N3, np.

You don't see the difference between a scumread on N1 and N3? We have much more info now than before.

You've been saying all day how difficult it's been for you to form any scum reads...

[Prince of Paterson]

Alright i looked Day 2, Malcolm was mostly abstent and just naked voted Fred in the end. But i never noticed "I Townread Enchant" even before from him. At best i was Null.
On this day he opened with "Enchant is my first suspect". Considering it's Gamma (who was locktown for everyone i believe) died, then i think same conclusion he supposed to had at moment of night...


So.
Malcolm, why you didn't shot me? DID YOU TOWNREAD ME? And if so, what SUDDENLY changed after Gamma death?

Hmm, this is a good point, and both improves my read on Enchant and makes me more suspicious of Malcolm.

Also glad to see that 1953 comes to a similar conclusion as I just saw Owen commenting on, in MT plus 2 of Lowell/Mala/Enchant.

[Prince of Paterson]

Malcolm you are not like your namesake at all.

The only way your role is provable is if you kill a townie at night, which you've just said you don't want to do for the risk of hitting a PR.

I would be willing to have a go at someone we may believe to be scum with town consensus. Then you'd know in advance who I was going to hit.

Good lord no. The problem with your claim to begin with is that scum can easily just save your target if you're town.

You're claiming a role that is openly detrimental to town once claimed.

Sure, I get this. Best to eliminate me. On D4, as I say, best looking at players who are positioning themselves around my wagon opportunistically.

Greeting constantly TR'ing me but then being willing to eliminate me pinged me a bit.

I think you're probably town in the end but I do have a tendency to read more analytical players in a more biased ways because it's the type of posting I like, I do fear you're trying to approach my elimination in a deliberately logical way that allows you to eliminate town without looking scummy. But then you've suspected Enchant anyway - no reason you couldn't have just let that go through.

I think Unsure is probably just tunnelled town.

Eh, I was starting to be swayed by Malcolm's posts, but I don't like this one at all. It doesn't feel like it accurately recreates a town mindset. The reads don't really fit with how he should be viewing the game at this point, especially the part where he implies that Enchant is town when mentioning Crescent's push there. There's an unsaid implication that Enchant is town IF Crescent is scum, but I don't think this is how that would be stated coming from someone voting Enchant. Instead, the Crescent read is predicated on the idea that she could have pushed town Enchant, and the fact that she hasn't makes her town. Someone who suspects Enchant would be considering the possibility of it being a bus, but there's no mention of that.

[Malakittens]

Gonna be honest seeing Andante changing votes like every 5 posts is making my head spin. I'm having a slow, mistake filled shift because I burned too much of my limited sleep energy on this earlier so that's fun.

Would vote Mala before Prince at this point in a second. Her only reason to ever vote him to begin with was "Enchant isn't scum". She has no reason to be clinging so hard to it, as she's never actually indicated any belief that he is scum.

But yeah decisions have to be made and I might collapse as soon as I get home.

It’s NAI

I have seen andante do it more as town than scum

So

[Malakittens]

That's a very tempting solve, Owen. I'll take back my townread on Mala, at the very least, because I don't think it makes any sense to vote me due to sheeping her townread of Andante (1852), and then when Andante moves somewhere else, instead of following she tells Andante to stay where she was. That's not a town trajectory.

Catching up now.

Where did I tell andante to vote somewhere else?!?

I was GETTING HER TO REVOTE YOU

[Greeting]

I think that the WIFOM fears with regard to

MalcolmTucker

's role are exaggerated. I don't like setup speculation in general, but since this is being brought up as a major argument, let's look at it with sensible and logical assumptions.

Let's say that the mafia do have a second roleblocker.

MegAzumarill

had only one shot. I think the setup would be really broken if the mafia had a second, unlimited roleblocker. Worst case scenario, the other roleblocker has one or maximum two shots. And, two nights have already passed. How certain are we that the mafia have not used at least one shot already? Or even two shots? They have to run out of shots eventually, if they haven't yet.

Let's say that the mafia do not have a second roleblocker. They have a choice: kill off

MalcolmTucker

or let him live. Letting him live, and letting us tell

MalcolmTucker

how to use his role to benefit the town cause means they are allowing a weaker Town Cop with unlimited shots run about. If

Malcolm

is aware that he's getting on the chopping block himself for not using his role any further, we should get evidence of him being a vig as soon as tonight. This scenario is a recipe for disaster for the mafia. It makes far more sense from the mafia perspective to kill him off. The death of

bugspray

also seems to indicate that the mafia's priority is killing off power roles, and this is what I would expect to happen.

If, for some reason, kills do not happen and

MalcolmTucker

is still alive, I will be the first one to organise a wagon against him on Day 5 or Day 6. That is, if I'm still alive. Feel free to remind me of this promise should I forget.

[Prince of Paterson]

That's a very tempting solve, Owen. I'll take back my townread on Mala, at the very least, because I don't think it makes any sense to vote me due to sheeping her townread of Andante (1852), and then when Andante moves somewhere else, instead of following she tells Andante to stay where she was. That's not a town trajectory.

Catching up now.

Where did I tell andante to vote somewhere else?!?

I was GETTING HER TO REVOTE YOU

I think you should reread my post. That's exactly what I said you did. It's suspicious because your only reason to vote me was to sheep Andante. Why not sheep Andante on Lowell? Why get her to revote me if the suspicion was hers originally, not yours?

[Greeting]

We have less than 24 hours left. Please leave

Malcolm

be for now and vote for someone else. Of the existing four wagons,

Enchant

and

Malakittens

I can wholeheartedly get behind. But we really should be making a decision now.

[Greeting]

And as for you,

@Malcolm

.

You are to use your role every Night for as long as you're alive in the game from now on and report whom you shot. Refusing to use your role is letting it go to waste. It's not a big deal if you kill off a suspicious townie. If you try to shoot a suspicious player and nothing happens, you must report this immediately, because there's a very good chance this means it's a scum.

If I had your role, I would use it on:

Malakittens

,

Enchant

(if he does not get eliminated today),

Unsure

,

UNOwen

and maybe

Lowell

. Order is from most preferable to least.

If you have no idea whom to shoot, because you have too many townreads, feel free to use mine or from any other player you townread the strongest. I would say that shooting someone who is not in

Firebringer

's town club is very strongly preferable.

If you refuse to work with us, then I will automatically assume that you're mafia and will push for your elimination. And there may come a time in this game when we can no longer afford to miseliminate a townie. If you're the townie who gets hunted for lack of cooperation in ELo, you will be widely blamed for our loss and rightfully so.

I hope I made myself clear.

[Prince of Paterson]

If it's in MT/Enchant/Mala/Lowell I'm ok with it right now, as there's no way that fourpack is clean.

Now that I've caught up and have seen Andante's claim, I agree with this as a list of elimination candidates, and I believe it contains all of the remaining scum. Outside chance still of Unsure if Malcolm is town, or possibly Firebringer if Mala is town, but I'm okay with leaving those slots alone for now.

My order of preference would be Mala, Lowell, Enchant, Malcolm. We can deal with Malcolm tomorrow. I will vote any of these four to secure an elimination, though.

VOTE: Malakittens

[Greeting]

Alright with this slot getting thrown out. I can't think of a single argument against it, only if the alternative is someone even more suspicious.

VOTE: Malakittens

[Crescent]

That's a very tempting solve, Owen. I'll take back my townread on Mala, at the very least, because I don't think it makes any sense to vote me due to sheeping her townread of Andante (1852), and then when Andante moves somewhere else, instead of following she tells Andante to stay where she was. That's not a town trajectory.

Catching up now.

Where did I tell andante to vote somewhere else?!?

I was GETTING HER TO REVOTE YOU

The point he was making was that you didn't sheep Andante onto Lowell, you nudged her back onto Prince, who you don't actually have a reason to be voting. Andante is kind of totally losing it and is super impressionable right now. I've been there!

Though, Prince kinda isn't correctly pointing out the reason Mala originally voted him to begin with. She voted him strictly as a counter to Enchant (Putting him -1 in the process). As for why she's doubled down on him to the point of asking Andante to come back to him (with zero other content in the vicinity of this post), there's really.. No reason at all that's given for it. It's like she's pushing Prince for the sole purpose of pushing Prince, and it doesn't feel like an attempt to actually vote off scum at all.

[Crescent]

Oh and for the record even if MT is town (he's not, but I digress), there's a sizeable chance we get nowhere anyway. I did some quick mental math that.. No one's really bothered to do on it.

If we vote town here, them even disregarding roleblocker fear, there could potentially be three scum doctors. He gets no result on them, no result on the people they save, and no result if he shoots scum's NK target. He has a mere 4/11 chance of actually producing a result under these circumstances. Someone who doesn't die has only a 50% chance of being scum.

Even if we vote off scum here, say we have two scum doctors remaining... That's still 5 people he won't get a result on, and his chances of getting one are 6/11. Someone who doesn't die still has only a 50% chance of being scum.

It's basically taking a claim that's a coinflip of actually producing a result, that will produce nothing but coinflip results, and acting like it's "easily testable/confirmable". If we let him live today, we pretty much have to also let him live tomorrow, because of how high the chance he produces nothing even if he's town. This basically means we have to leash someone just about everyone thinks is scum until we get tired of him producing no result, as it is perfectly feasible town MT could fail to do so for 2 or 3 consecutive nights depending on our upcoming flips.

That said, I did say I was perfectly alright just throwing Mala into a volcano earlier...