Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

[hutmeil]

VOTE: Penguinpower

[hutmeil]

UNVOTE: Penguin

HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: PenguinPower

Just so we can move forward.

[hutmeil]

UNVOTE: Penguin

HEAL: Hyped
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: PenguinPower

Just so we can move forward.

A more effective way of moving forward would be to start engaging with the thread at large.
Do you have any early reads?
What do you make of the fact that there is virtually no resistance to this plan?

No I don't have any reads as of now since we're still in RVS.

But who from my list do you want removed from the coalition?

[hutmeil]

I think there's a decent amount of readable content so far

When did I suggest there are people on your list that I want removed from the coalition?

Hmmm not sure about that, anyway still no reads yet.

No you did not. I'm just trying to engage with you more. Do you want anyone removed from my coalition list? Who and why?

[hutmeil]

you can explain why i'm in there

Well like I said, I just want the game to move forward. We have no concrete information right now. Once the day moves forward, then we have something to work on.

@Penguin: You want out of my list?

[hutmeil]

@UKDG @Klick Why Penguin?

[hutmeil]

Hello.

VOTE: hutmeil

VOTE: BloodB0t

This is a peculiar choice, to immediately pivot votes like this.

What? That's RVS, what's so peculiar?

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg
Hello scum

What made them stand out out of everyone?

Sorry, forgot to actually respond to this
Cat.Jpeg popped in, put a naked vote on me, and otherwise said nothing of consequence. It reads an active choice to post nothing instead of the passive nothingness that others are giving. Cat is fine with how the game is currently going.

I’m not exactly feeling this
I need to read more to be sure about this but I’m feeling like there’s a good shot both scum voted for the passed coalition with 1 in and 1 out

I agree that both scum could have voted on that coalition. But why do you think 1 in and 1 out?

VOTE: PenguinPower

I think the other three are rather likely town

VOTE: hutmeil
I think the other is either penguin or UD rn, but hutmeil being the one voter of that coalition that wasn't in it does not reflect well on him.

Why doesn't it reflect well on me? Scum would have wanted IN the coalition. I was fine either way - I could be in or out. But no one "healed" me so...

We are sure there's at least 1 scum in the coalition, why are you voting out right now?

VOTE: Gamma

[hutmeil]

Even before I factor in any personal feelings, that nails hutmeil as scum because he's the only one who voted for it that wasn't in it.

Mafia NEEDS to be in the coalition or they lose D1. Town doesn't have to. Though it's nice to win D1, they have the luxury of not being in the coalition and still win the next days. So your logic that I'm scum because I didn't vote myself into the coalition doesn't hold much weight.

[hutmeil]

It's more to do with the easy pass and the fact you only voted it to "move the game along"
IN all honesty that logic is just about a scumclaim because there shouldn't be a next stage to move along to if the coalition is properly done, other than the postgame.

By move the game along, I want to get more info on who could be scum or not. I don't the stats, but does anyone know the percentage of town winning on D1 for coalition games?

Kyoko can you give me a more full look at your reads atm

I prefer Gamma over Penguin because I believe Penguin may be lazy Town:

Or lazy scum. He was like this too the last time I played with him and he was scum. So I think the point I'm making is current "lazy" play is NAI.

In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

I don't like how rigid this is. I appreciate math as a guide but I dont think its a good idea to follow it this surely. Also if you were scum right now saying that we will only vote in the coalition until we hit scum is an easy way to protect a non-coalition, scummier-acting partner from being voted, then you would only have to worry about not getting voted yourself.

I'm with Klick on this. I think it's better to vote in-coalition (at least for now), because we're 100% sure there's scum in it. There's also the chance that all of the scum are in the coalition so chances of hitting scum is higher if we go vote in-coalition.

[hutmeil]

Eh. I am still in mood of voting Klick, but if you need my vote...

I don't think Klick is informed. He's just assuming that there's 1 scum in and out of the coalition since that would be the best setup for scum.

[hutmeil]

Gooood Morning everyone!

Good morning!

Why did you vote Mala d1?

[hutmeil]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

Maybe this is the reason why Mala died. She was about to reveal some info but got NK'd for it.

VOTE: Gamma

[hutmeil]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

That crossed my mind yes. What do you think Mala wanted to say about you?

[hutmeil]

Gamma is town

Why is that?

[hutmeil]

We had 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out

Scenario 4 is a win for town so that's not an option for scum. So here are the probabilities for scum

inside

the coalition:
- 1/3 chance of 2 scum in
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum in

While here are the probabilities for scum

outside

the coalition:
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum out
- no chance of 2 scum out

If we elim inside:
(1/3) * (2/5) + (2/3) * (1/5) = 0.267 (27% total chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
(0/3) * (2/4) + (2/3) * (1/4) = 0.167 (17% total chance of hitting scum)

So we made the right decision of voting inside the coalition since it had a higher chance of hitting scum.

However the thing that bothers me is how we got scum on the first try. There was a 27% chance of hitting but that means there's a

63% chance of NOT

. So the chances of not hitting is greater than hitting scum. Which leads me to believe that scum bussed.

Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.

Now going back to the scenarios for D2:
1) Scum in
2) Scum out

So that's 50% chance for each scenario:

If we elim inside:
50% * (1/4) = 0.125 (13% chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
50% * (1/3) = 0.167 (17% chance of hitting scum)

There is now a higher chance of hitting scum outside coalition. Pair that with the D1 wagon:

Wagon: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald,

Enchant

, Klick (plus NK'd Mala)
Outside Coalition:

Enchant

, Cat, Hutmeil (plus NK'd Mala)

The common player in the groups is enchant. So:

UNVOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Enchant

[hutmeil]

It not being an option for scum does not mean it wasn't possible at the start

Sure. But we're now in the present looking back into the past.

Everyone has an equal chance of being scum after one scum is eliminated from the coalition

I think that's debatable. We could continue the scenarios or go with the 1/7 chance of hitting scum.

[hutmeil]

Don't try your math again, because i will beat you.

9 - 1 - 1 = 7 people left.

[hutmeil]

Hutmeil just seems to be trying to create any wagon that isnt him and also protecting himself by saying he thinks the other scum was bussing.

Or scum really bussed. I think that's the most logical thing for scum to do given that UKDG was inactive toward the end.

[hutmeil]

Hutmail smeels like VI.

Yeah thanks.

[hutmeil]

Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.

Do...you really think I point that out in this instance?

Maybe, but I chose to believe you given you also bussed (I mean your fellows scum) our last game together.

[hutmeil]

What we should do is execute hutmeil for making math boring

What do you mean you "chose to believe me." Believe me about what?

That you bussed a similar mini game to win.

[hutmeil]

Great, I might as well self-hammer. No one is talking, no discussions generated. Prods everywhere.

[hutmeil]

NO TIME TO EXPLAIN

I could see scum!enchant say that.

[hutmeil]

DO IT

Another scummy post from scummy Enchant.

I'll self-hammer in a few hours if no one objects to that. You'll have 5 players left and at least 2 days more to find scum. Don't know how you'll do that though considering the level of activity in this game.

Just want to point out a few things. Or maybe a readslist before I miselim myself:

hutmeil - Town. I don't know about you guys but I think I did my share for the game (helpful or not). Unfortunately, the game is full of lurkers. Apparently, my mistake was to NOT bring myself into the coalition and that looked scummy.

Klick - On post 51, the slot suggested to bring into the coalition the 5 most frequent posters. I see that as townie since that makes sense.

Gamma - I initially SRd the slot because of what Mala said in 192 but upon reading her ISO, the slot feels townie to me.

Cat - ISOd the slot and is townie to me.

Penguin - I don't know if this means anything, the slot is the only slot that didn't indicate his intention to be in the coalition. Yes he HEALED himself, but he didn't say he wanted in unlike the other 4 who directly stated their intentions to be in the coalition. Having said that, it's hard to read the slot.

Mohab/Bloodbot - They both agreed to Klick's suggestion to HEAL the 5 most frequent posters which I did too. My point here is, if you're sussing me for this, these 2 slots (now Jake/Enchant) should be sussed too.

Enchant - The point above plus his recent scummy posts make him my top SR.

[hutmeil]

Just figured out how to use the countdown lol.

Self-hammering (if no objections) in:

(expired on 2022-09-02 22:00:00)

[hutmeil]

I know you won't do it.

Lol. Reverse psychology? Try me. So far no one objects and the clock is ticking...

[hutmeil]

Like hell, obviously atleast one person will ask PLEASE DON'T HAMMER FIGHT FOR THE END.

And you like "Oh see peolle object".

You won't do it. Otherwise you would. Your manipulation doesn't work on ME

Not really. If everyone finds me scummy, then no one would object.

[hutmeil]

Let's see.

[hutmeil]

UNVOTE:

Only robbing you luxury of selfdisposing.

Lol what? If I'm scum then you would have won! Why the sudden unvote? I smell scummy scum... I would have flipped green and town would turn on you!

You hoped someone will do so, are u?

Sure, just so they can turn on you next day!

[hutmeil]

The self vote seems like a gambit,

Nope not a gambit. If you're convinced I'm scum, then vote me then ask Enchant to vote again.

which I guess worked because idk why enchant unvoted.

^This. Why? Because he's scum. He's scared when I flip green, town would turn on him.

[hutmeil]

VOTE: jake
I kinda think he’s coasting here

Agreed. He's on my SR list too.

[hutmeil]

Nononono.

If you are town, you will gladly selfhammer.

I was going to until YOU unvoted.

If you are mafia, you probably will make some excuse to not do so. Because hammering self is instalose for you and useless.

Therefore... I see no reason to let You decide this matter.

Did I make any excuse? Nope. You are the one making excuses now. You're scared that when I flip green, town will elim you next.

[hutmeil]

@Penguin / Jake: What do you think of Enchant?

[hutmeil]

Please elim enchant d2

[hutmeil]

*D3