Large Normal 241: Random Pictures and Other Stuff | Endgame

[Datisi]

ok do i have any thoughts
yes i do

frogsterking is more and more reminding me of that bunnies mini normal where they were town and they were very annoying in trying to get the things their way and were posting constantly and whatever the fuck. i really really don't think scum-frogster is able to match this level of... posting.

s_s voting nero is... interesting, i guess. the "if i wanted to live, why wouldn't i just be pushing menalque" *feels* like it's supposed to be wifom on mena's alignment after s_s flips red. not 100% on that but it feels like a scummy post in my bones. idk if i can explain it but i guess.

i guess i'd like s_s to tell me how sure he really is that nero is scum, and how he thinks scum-nero navigated his two flipped buddies, bc like... i currently think nero looks the best out of all associates-wise.

uh, the fact that mena still isn't here is pain and i am still intent on waiting for him to get back and do more solving. because i am still intent on saying that town!mena would show some sorta WILL TO LIVE in this game. which is why i would KINDLY tell frogster to stop asking for a hammer because as the Resident Confirmed Town: no.

also, frogster: marci was killed for mechanical reasons. we're at evens, which means that scum CANNOT let another vig shot go off. pls stop bringing up her reads as a reason for her to get killed. thanks.

[Frogsterking]

I have a response

[scamper]

VOTE: mena

this slot is a problem regardless of alignment but i still believe it has a more than reasonable chance of flipping scum

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Mena

[Frogsterking]

I have created three separate responses in regards to 6625:

Response #1

Spoiler:

Response #2

frogsterking is more and more reminding me of that bunnies mini normal where they were town and they were very annoying in trying to get the things their way and were posting constantly and whatever the fuck. i really really don't think scum-frogster is able to match this level of... posting.

also, frogster: marci was killed for mechanical reasons. we're at evens, which means that scum CANNOT let another vig shot go off. pls stop bringing up her reads as a reason for her to get killed. thanks.

My play here isn't similar to my play in Bunnies and I can prove it with a

very high level of certainty

:

I have no idea what frog's talking about with the dann/scamper thing, although I don't think it is scummy

I was tinfoiling. You can tell I wasn't thinking clearly because I lost the presence of mind to add the

certainty

thing.

I mean I guess it looks kind of similar. I feel like the energy behind it is different. I have him in my solve as an edge case:

Menalque (high certainty) -> fire (moderate certainty) -> S_S (low certainty) -> Shea (low certainty) -> Dease (honorable mention)

I'm making an adjustment to my solve:

Menalque (high certainty) -> Dease (moderate certainty) -> fire (low certainty) -> S_S (low certainty) -> Shea (honorable mention)

I'm going to update my solve, I have it down to four names:

Menalque (high certainty) -> S_S (moderate certainty) -> Dease (low certainty) -> fire (very low certainty)

No matter how many rabbit holes I've fallen down this game I've demonstrated I can return to reality without mod interference and when I do my reads remain consistent with only minor logical adjustments. I have the presence of mind to include (or not include) some elements like my

level of certainty

which indicate to the reader how internally consistent I am feeling at the time of writing. Since settling on my D3 solve in 6177 I've been maintaining an easy-to-read list of who I want to vote and who I'm willing to vote which are by all accounts in accordance with what's acceptable to the clears and quasi-clears. The only dramatic change has already occurred and occurred semi-gradually over the course of D3, and it was going from me wanting to look for a busser on the Tweet wagon (5645) to me

not

wanting to look for a busser on the Tweet wagon (6141.)

Response #3

Spoiler:

which is why i would KINDLY tell frogster to stop asking for a hammer because as the Resident Confirmed Town: no.

Okay.

[Something_Smart]

I also don't want to cause this to get lost in the thread, because S_S flaked immediately after:

Can't think of any reason why I might have stopped posting at 2:40 am

[Ausuka]

SS can you explain why Nero is scum to you cos I really don't see it

[Something_Smart]

I want you to theory craft a brand new way you might be able to find scum reads that you haven't tried before and then do it.

This feels like kind of a bizarre request-- you're basically asking me to invent a tell, apply it without any evidence, and expect it to be at all good. I can give it a try... but I can't see the result not being garbage.

[Something_Smart]

SS can you explain why Nero is scum to you cos I really don't see it

He's trying to chain lim me and Mena and prevent people from reevaluating. Of course town-Nero can do that, but it feels pro-scum.

[Something_Smart]

I want you to theory craft a brand new way you might be able to find scum reads that you haven't tried before and then do it.

This feels like kind of a bizarre request-- you're basically asking me to invent a tell, apply it without any evidence, and expect it to be at all good. I can give it a try... but I can't see the result not being garbage.

All, right here goes:

I have enabled seconds on my control panel. I think I've done this maybe once before, and I don't think it was for this purpose, so I can reasonably confidently say that I have never tried this before.

When interacting in real-time, one would expect town to have a somewhat consistent time that it takes them to respond to a post (assuming they saw it, of course). Whereas, scum might take longer to write posts, either because they are choosing the angle they want to take more carefully, or checking the scum PT, or whatever.

So, I'll look at some people's ISOs and find cases where they posted soon after someone else's post, in response to that post, and try to aggregate how much time was between the posts in each case. Higher average time = more scum, and higher variance = more scum.

(This might take a while, and if so, I won't do it for everyone's entire ISO.)

[Something_Smart]

Forgot to mention a caveat about post length. I guess initially I'll try to do it only on short posts (1-2 sentences). I could try, like, dividing the time by the word count, but that will

definitely

take a while.

And I don't expect this tell to work anyway

[Datisi]

amazing

s_s voting nero is... interesting, i guess. the "if i wanted to live, why wouldn't i just be pushing menalque" *feels* like it's supposed to be wifom on mena's alignment after s_s flips red. not 100% on that but it feels like a scummy post in my bones. idk if i can explain it but i guess.

i guess i'd like s_s to tell me how sure he really is that nero is scum, and how he thinks scum-nero navigated his two flipped buddies, bc like... i currently think nero looks the best out of all associates-wise.

(this is a reminder not to forget about this once you are done analyzing timestamps)

[Ausuka]

oh i didn't see datisi asking my question but better rip

[Something_Smart]

this is taking forever lol. I'm only going to do the first 100 posts in everyone's ISO; it still produces a reasonable amount of data.

[Frogsterking]

Firebringer is here to bail out Gamma or is just oblivious?

I am going to word this nicely.
But was this post made with the intention of trying to annoy me or just made without thinking?
I don't know.

I am going to calm down now because this post shouldn't have bugged me as much as it should and you probably didn't intend it to.

ill probably do a deep dive analysis on GL, Conman and Dannflor sometime today or tomorrow. Those slots im interested in, everyone else is kind of w/e in my eyes right now.

SS can you explain why Nero is scum to you cos I really don't see it

He's trying to chain lim me and Mena and prevent people from reevaluating. Of course town-Nero can do that, but it feels pro-scum.

this is taking forever lol. I'm only going to do the first 100 posts in everyone's ISO; it still produces a reasonable amount of data.

[Nero Cain]

Oh darn it. I forgot to lock up my insidious plans to chain lim SS and mena. Good thing no one will ever figure out such a cunning plan.

Evil cackles

[Nero Cain]

I don't think that's a factual representation of my play and it's just a sheep from a bad tsq interpretation bc I think it was him accusing me of that shit earlier

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it does not take a genius to figure out that's what you were doing. I don't think Shea thought it was malicious.

[Nero Cain]

Thank mith that tsq and you are here to tell me what I'm doing but also naw, not really.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if one of me/Mena flips town, are you not going to push the other tomorrow?

[Nero Cain]

I did suggest that limming you/mena is better than hero limming redfire and correctly identified that you and mena are the lead wagons but the stuff about me preventing anything else from happening is hogwash

[Nero Cain]

I mean maybe I don't know the extent of my own power and I've posted X number of slots into submission and they are under my influence

[Nero Cain]

I mean, if one of me/Mena flips town, are you not going to push the other tomorrow?

I may or may not. Depends on how I feel about the rest of his posting/lack of. I don't think I've ever suggested that I'm going to vote one of you today and the other tomorrow. Where is this coming from?

[Nero Cain]

But still, the idea that I'm standing in the way of a redfire flip or anyone pushing elsewhere is my ridiculous

[Something_Smart]

I did suggest that limming you/mena is better than hero limming redfire and correctly identified that you and mena are the lead wagons but the stuff about me preventing anything else from happening is hogwash

I mean, you actively discouraged Shea when he brought up the possibility. You framed it as just being descriptive of how other people seemed to feel, but it seemed like you didn't want him to even try forming a new wagon, possibly just because you thought the effort would go to waste.

I appreciate the clarification, though.