Datisi's Café [game over!]

[Vivax]

Anyway, need to make my rounds, collect protection money, have a drink, then send my curriculum to the PLA /jk

But jjh is sort of implying he's neighbourized with Klick and thinks that's the scum, methinks

No, you're completely off, but I wouldn't really expect you to be on the same page as me

Thanks for the feedback. Taking wild guesses is something you don‘t like I suppose.
But my vote is still on Titus and we share the Roden townread,so I don‘t get your hostility.
I get it that I like to drift off from the main goal of this game for entertainment, but that can‘t be a bad thing since it‘s just that.

[Lukewarm]

mafia can have like 5000 kills a night regardless so you have to temper that amount of potential kp into something and i think being able to provide reasonable false positives and establish ways of pocketing/getting info/etc works well for the type of game the flips have presented to us so far

I do not believe that his claim makes him town.

I was showing why it is likely that he is true claiming. It is the reason why Peta's role pm had to be altered from the standard.

It was in response to Titus's

maybe the whole role is a fiction

[Lukewarm]

Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want

Wifom. Fake posts are posted.

Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want

Wifom. Fake posts are posted.

Just shouting wifom is a cop out. Scum can do literally anything, the point is which is more likely.

I just don't think it is very likely at all, that given the situation that he was in, he would take that avenue as scum. And therefore, it being the truth is the more likely reality we live in.

You don't think it's likely at all, because that fits your worldview.

Scum players and scum teams can and do have widely varying reactions. Maybe it's dead in water, maybe it's as little info as possible, maybe the amount wouldn't make sense, maybe the whole role is a fiction, maybe he's scum truth telling

Maybe Roden is town lying
Maybe he's telling the truth and is town

Whatever he said serves his purposes. As far as I know, there's no mech for any of it.

Arguing why that claim in particular supposes things that can't be known (if town).

I feel like this is a pretty scummy series of post on its own btw.

It take no stances, and makes no arguments. She just popped in to stir paranoia on any presented reason to town read Roden, without actually engaging with the reasons or talking about the reasons she believes him to be scum.

Like, it is just "oooohhhhh wifom scary" and "all things are unknowable"

She is not talking about Roden, she is talking in generalities, with the final conclusion being: so you can't make town reads.

[furtiveglance]

i skim roden's iso and it's like

mailman who can get messages back for free right ?

that claim is probably real ya but i don't get how alignment follows that one

If you were modding a 21 player and you gave Mafia 4 players (not confirmed), would you give 2 Mafia useless abilities?

Never alting again

[furtiveglance]

Much embarrassed, very shame ^^

[Lukewarm]

everyone point and laugh at the alt slipper

[furtiveglance]

Back to the game, I'd like more from JJH about their scumreads.

[mastina]

Have you considered that Ausuka and Malakittens could be mafia piggybacking the Roden vote? Town driven doesn't mean all town on it

I mean, sure.

It's possible Mala's scum; VCA and NKA both have her as highly likely to fit as scum.
Her play suggests town tho so she's less likely scum than other options.

For her to be scum you also need a coherent scumteam. She's not going to bus Roden after having been off of him, so for her to be scum, Roden must be town and she would need to have two other partners.

Who fits as a Malakittens partner?

There aren't many options.


Ausuka has looked town ten times over in ten different ways and none of them feel like deepscum. All feel natural, organic, sincere, and genuine, and Ausuka's content has felt like it has consistently been an attempt to further the wincon. I admit lack of familiarity with Ausuka so I don't know what Ausuka is capable of as scum, but if Ausuka were scum I would sincerely be incredibly impressed--this would genuinely be a Don Coralone level of performance imo in how well Ausuka has played.

Peta was actually so sure that Titus was scum, that he moved off the Ircher wagon and onto Titus.

I sincerely doubt that peta's read was as strong as you are implying it was. In fact, I'm reading petapan's iso from the bottom. There's only one mention of Titus (which is explicitly referring to pre-439 content) after this:

while most of my reads are weak vibes

So every suspicion peta had on Titus was BEFORE this post, and thus, per petapan, explicitly "weak vibes".

Did petapan state suspicion on Titus? Yes. But you are presenting the false narrative that his scumread there was strong. It is quite likely petapan's scumread was in fact quite weak. From what I know about petapan, he's more likely to have reads be weaker than what he says rather than stronger than what he says. Meaning that his Titus push is more likely to have been weaker than what he said rather than stronger. At many points peta said it was early. He even said his readslist was a vibelist not a readslist.

For someone who claims to have taken a look at peta's reads, you sure seem to have glossed over that peta's reads were not nearly as strong as you are implying they were!

(This is not all I am going to be quoting for the Lukewarm post but this part felt like it was important enough to stand out:

Lukewarm claims to have read petapan's iso but is lying about petapan's strength of read on Titus.

[mastina]

I got the feeling that she came up with the idea that she needed to push me, and then started trying to come up with reasons.

What in the gamestate meant Titus needed to push you?

Last I checked, Roden has consistently been near elimination, and you have consistently had 0-1 votes on you. Titus has never had more votes than Roden. She's been close, but never surpassed.

IF Titus were scum, she would know that Roden would flip town--and IF Roden flipped town, a push on you would be much harder for her to make due to you having increased credibility from it. Titus would know that pushing you wouldn't work. (Inevitably you'll bring up the difference between my stance describing you now versus 2007 but I'll nip that in the bud by stating it's a difference in perspective between Titus's view and Dannflor's view. How Titus views you differs from how Dannflor views you. Dannflor's view is the 2007 post, Titus's is this one.)

She wouldn't be able to get an elimination there. You could argue she's setting up an attempt to discredit you, but guess what? You're not going to convince me

Titus

is doing that when that's exactly what you've been doing to me. It'd literally be projection of you accusing Titus of doing the thing you are guilty of.

I realize Titus tends to think long-term, but it is specifically her thinking long-term which means her attacking of you makes her town. If she were scum, she'd know Roden would flip town and invalidate her stated world view. That would weaken her position and give her no leverage compared to you. She wouldn't be able to win a fight with you. The easier solution for her would be to just nightkill you, since Vivax has stated he won't be firing tonight.

Her narrative would, with a Roden townflip, require an entire revision. She would need to either discard all her reads (thus meaning she doesn't push you) or invent entirely new reasons for them (thus meaning she needs to bullshit extra reasons). In either case, it doesn't fit with a scum plan. It doesn't fit with a scum agenda.

Titus has no need to push you today as scum--but she also has no need to set you up for a push on future days, because of her stated world view and what a Roden townflip would do in regards to your/her stances.

You are trying to have it both ways. You earlier argued that this whole thing looked like her scum game, EXCEPT for her Ircher interaction.

I may have slightly misspoken if I said "looked like her scumgame". It'd be more accurate to say "looks like scum".

Her D1 posts look like scum. "overly careful, a sense of just being overly aware of how she's being perceived" looks like scum, but on reflection I don't think a scum-Titus actually looks that way. It's a thing that looks like scum but I don't think in hindsight actually IS scum. Even if it WERE something that

could

be scum, the important part:

especially in regards to treatment of scumbuddies.

Titus's treatment of scumbuddies is never "overly careful, overly aware of how she's being perceived".

my own position is that that Titus looks to me like she was trying to save him, all the way up til he hit E-1 and more people were voicing willingness to vote there.

If Titus were trying to save Ircher, her vote wouldn't be on Ircher.

Period.

So your stance is, explicitly, not one which can work with mine because my stance is that the vote explicitly is evidence she wasn't trying to save Ircher.

Because it feels like I have little thread control.

If it feels like you have very little thread control, why do you think Titus needs to push you???

I've explained my stance on the difference between Titus/Dannflor; your turn.

[mastina]

To actually get to him being mechanically town, you have to stop and think about the more specific details of the numbers. And not just the % points needed to direct the kills, but also the % points needed by the flipped townies. And while I saw those numbers when I looked at the flips, I did not do any of the mental math on what that would mean for the over all % points.

Okay Lukewarm, question:
What made you do the numbers with Ircher, but not do the numbers for Vivax?

[furtiveglance]

Mastina I'm also here. Thoughts about TA needing a false guilty and Roden's role fitting the bill? (Sorry if you already covered this, mostly skimming your posts)

Also, Titus drunk posting was definitely not insightful or solvey (can't remember the word you used)

[Andresvmb]

I read Roden’s ISO - I had forgotten just how horrific their D1 was. Also, their posting is too focused on self-preservation over trying to solve the game. Yeah they had some comments as prompted by me about Uncrowned, but outside of pushing what, mastina, is there a coherent push in there? I don’t remember one. Like they get upset at Ausuka for voting them and not really speaking about them before, and they make a point of saying that Vivax v. Lukewarm is TvT in 1228, but they really seem for the most part to be fighting the reasons people are expressing for SR’ing them or getting upset about questions about their role. I just don’t see a whole lot of actual curiosity about other people’s alignments. It could just be that they’re demoralized, but it’s been a very consistent apathy.

[jjh927]

Back to the game, I'd like more from JJH about their scumreads.

I'll let you know when I've identified someone I think is actually likely to flip scum as opposed to simply being at the bottom of my list

[mastina]

firing

Roden [8]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus, Uncrowned, PenguinPower

not voting [2]:

jjh927, Something_Smart

For the record, this basically clears Something_Smart of being scum.

I'm not honestly sure beyond that but you have to realize that you are getting a bunch of passive support from people who aren't really chasing their own directions at all.

This sounds reasonable until you realize that literally the only read those who support me on Roden have in common with me is Roden.

Everyone on the Roden wagon doesn't agree with me on the likes of you, Lukewarm, fire, etc. They mostly all have their own scumreads beyond that. Yes, they are not chasing those other reads. But town has strong incentive to not chase their other reads. If your point is that they have reads that are the same as mine, that's not the case; if your point is that they are not pursuing their other reads, then that isn't remotely scum-indicative and is actually town-indicative.

Town voting Roden are incentivized to

not

push elsewhere, because if they believe Roden is scum enough to vote him, pressing their other scumreads is likely to cause the Roden wagon to dissipate.

And we all mostly town read each other.

Guess what scum need to do with a scum elimination D1.

Generally, it's not that likely for scum to stick together in a block like that.

Generally, there isn't a scum elimination on D1 that is followed by a scum wagon on D2.

There being a scum elimination on D1 into a scum wagon on D2 has a funny way of making things diverge from the general case.

Klick is right on you btw; while 2053 is far townier, I see why Klick thinks it's suspect. You're townier now than you were because this is a more reasonable post--but it is still factually wrong, in a way that

could

be town but also could be scum.

[Lukewarm]

Peta was actually so sure that Titus was scum, that he moved off the Ircher wagon and onto Titus.

I sincerely doubt that peta's read was as strong as you are implying it was. In fact, I'm reading petapan's iso from the bottom. There's only one mention of Titus (which is explicitly referring to pre-439 content) after this:

while most of my reads are weak vibes

So every suspicion peta had on Titus was BEFORE this post, and thus, per petapan, explicitly "weak vibes".

Did petapan state suspicion on Titus? Yes. But you are presenting the false narrative that his scumread there was strong. It is quite likely petapan's scumread was in fact quite weak.

Mastina, this simply is not true.

Peta consistently called Titus scum. Like if you search his iso for titus, here is every post

Spoiler:

titus is definitely on the verge of joining best doggos alongside myself and RC

disagree

VOTE: Titus

On an unrelated note, I declare Titus and klick as Town Enough For Day 1 after reading 141.

*blinking*

good vibes:

penguinpower
furtiveglance
lukewarm
uncrowned
something_smart
ydrasse
malakittens
nero cain (for dumb reasons)
rce
fireisredsir
klick

no vibes:

bbt
andres
jjh
ircher
mastina
roden

(historically terrible at reading the last two so don't know if i will have a good idea anytime soon


bad vibes:

vivax
ausuka
titus

(latter two stronger than the former where i may not have a grasp of playstyle)

From the last 4ish pages, Titus +Town and PP +town. Everyone choosing to engage and re-engage the 4 scum/5 scum discussion tanking. Also hate the Titus vote timings. (As in the votes on Titus not the slot of Titus voting.)

i think titus is howling about as hard as someone can for less than 24 hours into day 1 but you do you

titus calling me town from vca IS pretty weird

someone will leap to titus's defense sayin she's weird as town which is generally true but kind of evades the task of actually evaluating her

i just don't buy a post like 221

I like that Titus calls some posts town straight up, it's town indicative I think.

the reasoning being deployed in the early game here is w i l d

i just don't buy a post like 221

go on

she's trying to set up two players as containing scum between them for highly suspect reasons, which is a maneuver i've seen her use before as scum. it doesn't really make a lot of sense that the supposed "slip" gets brought up to save s_s from pressure because it's not like could plan on ircher making a post like that and pushing it strategically so it's kind of ridiculous. but she's also been calling ircher frozen lock scum so if she thinks he's scum why should that possibly mean anything for s_s?

and i get that feeling with most of titus's posts, just "i don't believe this is real"


(i also think s_s is probably the townies he can get for day 1 of a game. i know that kind of contradicts a post i made earlier and i don't care)

How I draw lines is the subject of many questions, but having a semi-eidetic memory helps.

VOTE: petapan

For weird flails and misjudging vibes and cause by now Ircher seems too obvious to be scum.

lol

where am i flailing

it doesn't really make a lot of sense that the supposed "slip" gets brought up to save s_s from pressure because it's not like could plan on ircher making a post like that and pushing it strategically so it's kind of ridiculous

I understand your point here but the post was made and made very early into the game at that so couldn't it still be used? or am i missing something?

i mean just the idea that it was being brought up strategically to take pressure off a buddy, i really don't buy that being a thing someone (even titus) actually thinks about. stuff like that almost always gets found organically.


anyway don't want to spam so likely stepping back for a bit again. trying to limit my own output for the early game at least

who has experience playing with Mr vivax

i mean technically i have one game on MU but it was a large novelty game so not applicable to this one in a useful way

-He showed up to fuss at uncrowned for calling Titus town

-He moved off Ircher and on to Titus

-He showed up to fuss at me for calling Titus town.

-He put Titus at the very bottom of his reads list

-"i think titus is howling about as hard as someone can for less than 24 hours into day 1 but you do you"

-Doubled down
-Doubled down
-Doubled down
-Doubled down.

It was incredibly consistent

[Lukewarm]

For someone who claims to have taken a look at peta's reads, you sure seem to have glossed over that peta's reads were not nearly as strong as you are implying they were!

(This is not all I am going to be quoting for the Lukewarm post but this part felt like it was important enough to stand out: Lukewarm claims to have read petapan's iso but is lying about petapan's strength of read on Titus.

Like, its right there in the ISO, and everyone is welcome to read what Peta had to say about Titus. I even grabbed all of the relevant quotes.

[mastina]

assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with at least one another living player, via private topics or otherwise. you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all.

night abilities:

jailkeeper + 1 day neighbourizer [cost: 30%; +10% for each additional usage]

- furthermore, you will gain a private topic with that player: it will open at the end of the night, and stay open until the start of the following night.

MOD DATISI:

Say BBT had neighborized PlayerA N1. That topic would be open D2, and close N2.

PlayerA has no other private topics beyond the one formed on D2.
Both PlayerA and BBT live.

Would petapan see PlayerA as having a private topic?

[furtiveglance]

assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with at least one another living player, via private topics or otherwise. you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all.

night abilities:

jailkeeper + 1 day neighbourizer [cost: 30%; +10% for each additional usage]

- furthermore, you will gain a private topic with that player: it will open at the end of the night, and stay open until the start of the following night.

MOD DATISI:

Say BBT had neighborized PlayerA N1. That topic would be open D2, and close N2.

PlayerA has no other private topics beyond the one formed on D2.
Both PlayerA and BBT live.

Would petapan see PlayerA as having a private topic?

Ok so that could be a false guilty.

[furtiveglance]

Back to the game, I'd like more from JJH about their scumreads.

I'll let you know when I've identified someone I think is actually likely to flip scum as opposed to simply being at the bottom of my list

Have you changed on Malakittens then? Or were they always just bottom of the list rather than likely scum?

[Lukewarm]

To actually get to him being mechanically town, you have to stop and think about the more specific details of the numbers. And not just the % points needed to direct the kills, but also the % points needed by the flipped townies. And while I saw those numbers when I looked at the flips, I did not do any of the mental math on what that would mean for the over all % points.

Okay Lukewarm, question:
What made you do the numbers with Ircher, but not do the numbers for Vivax?

I don't actually think that there is much similar between the two situations other then the fact that you get to use the word "numbers" when talking about them lol.

In order to spot the Vivax thing, you have to look at 3 different numbers in the role flips, use those numbers to estimate the average town numbers, then work out the expected average to see if seem plausible for us to have gotten below 50%.

Like you actually have to stop and do math here.

that is a very different thing then seeing someone say this

As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.

And then thinking, "huh, where did those numbers come from?"

[Datisi]

assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with at least one another living player, via private topics or otherwise. you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all.

night abilities:

jailkeeper + 1 day neighbourizer [cost: 30%; +10% for each additional usage]

- furthermore, you will gain a private topic with that player: it will open at the end of the night, and stay open until the start of the following night.

MOD DATISI:

Say BBT had neighborized PlayerA N1. That topic would be open D2, and close N2.

PlayerA has no other private topics beyond the one formed on D2.
Both PlayerA and BBT live.

Would petapan see PlayerA as having a private topic?

if petapan were investigating playerA during night 1: yes.

if petapan were investigating playerA during night 2 (assuming BBT did not target playerA again on n2): no.

[jjh927]

I find speculating about specific reads from dead people being why they were killed to be incredibly unscientific and really not worth time at all

[Lukewarm]

Mastina I'm also here.

Thoughts about TA needing a false guilty and Roden's role fitting the bill?

(Sorry if you already covered this, mostly skimming your posts)

Also, Titus drunk posting was definitely not insightful or solvey (can't remember the word you used)

btw furtive, that was not my point.

we have already had a role flip to cause false guilties.

Spoiler:

My point was about the addition of the red words.

Compare Peta's role to the standard Wiki description

Each Night, you may

target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with another living player (you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all).

during the night,

target a player. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with

at least one

another living player,

via private topics or otherwise.

you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all.

I am saying that he added them because Roden's ability exists, and he wanted to make it very clear that that would come up as a guilty, even though it was not a PT.

[Lukewarm]

I find speculating about specific reads from dead people being why they were killed to be incredibly unscientific and really not worth time at all

That is not what that conversation was about, but okay.

[mastina]

Also, just from a game state perspective, the reason I haven’t been all that keen of moving away from Roden, is that I would naturally expect there to be a lot of resistance to the execution of a player if the Town were roughly moving in the right direction. And you can’t tell me that more than a few alternatives have not been offered to stop Roden from getting executed (Titus, Something_Smart, mastina, to name a few). This is purely circumstantial obviously, and it can be interpreted various different ways (a lot of Scum together pushing the wagon of a Town player stubbornly wouldn’t look that much different to this, except I don’t SR Klick, I think Ydrasse is Town, and I doubt Malakittens is insisting on me being Town just to pocket me).

This.

If Roden is Town, why have there been so many attempted counterwagons to him?

Vivax was a counterwagon shut down ONLY by Vivax's vig claim. He got like five votes prior to it.
Something_Smart was a counterwagon.
Titus was a counterwagon.

Which is, statistically, more likely?

The town collectively has resisted a wagon on town that has scum on it, and has tried multiple times to get counterwagons going...
...Or that the town collectively is voting together on a wagon that doesn't have scum, and the scum have tried multiple times to get counterwagons going?

If Roden were town, then the wagon on him would have gone through by now.
If Roden is scum, then it makes sense for the wagon to have not gone through--scum are desperate to save him so won't vote him, and there are enough town players paranoid of the wagon, doubting the wagon, etc. to not push it through.

If Roden were town, then the scum would need to all be on the wagon already for it to have not gone through, and even then, it

still

would be likely to have gone through. Vivax could have hammered. Something_Smart could have hammered. jjh could have hammered. furtive could have hammered. Ausuka could have hammered.

How many different counterwagons to Roden will it take for people to realize Roden is scum?
How many different iterations of the Roden wagon will it take for people to realize Roden is not town?
How many times will a lack of Roden being hammered reveal that Roden wasn't going to be hammered by scum and that therefore the only options are Roden-scum or all remaining scum on Roden?