Open 866: CK9++ [game over!]

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #800 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:09 am

VOTE: Bella

DeasVail · Post Post #801 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:45 am

In post 794, MathBlade wrote:Malakittens
MathBlade
Frogsterking
PookyTheMagicalBear
Bellaphant
DeasVail

Elim pool for SK is Pooky Bella Mala and technically Frogger.

DV do you think Mala is the SK? I’d like to hear an argument and vibe with you.

Everyone who do you think is mafia and why and who is SK and why?

I think Mala is mafia

DeasVail · Post Post #802 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:45 am

I think group scum are Mala/Pooky and that sk is Frogster

DeasVail · Post Post #803 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:49 am

I think Bella as town is more likely to miss details such as me being confirmed town. I think if she were SK or mafia she would pay more attention to that sort of thing

DeasVail · Post Post #804 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:50 am

Most of all I want to make sure we avoid a situation where there are 2 groupscum left

Datisi · Post Post #805 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:09 pm

vote count 4.01

with 6 votes in play, it takes 4 to make a decision. day 4 ends in (expired on 2022-10-19 21:30:00).

yeet

Malakittens [1]:

DeasVail

PookyTheMagicalBear [1]:

Malakittens

Bellaphant [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

not voting [3]:

Mathblade, Frogsterking, Bellaphant

mod notes~ this is a mod note.

flavour

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #806 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:33 pm

if we elim mala and she's groupscum

we go into night with

bg+doc+vt+sk+groupscum

groupscum/sk have no incentive to cross shot

sk shoots doctor or bg

groupscum shoots doctor or bg

we open with 1 doc/bg 1 vt 1 sk 1 groupscum

which is like not good

MathBlade · Post Post #807 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:14 pm

I think your premise is false. They have incentive to cross shoot. If they don’t cross shoot and 2 v 1 v 1 then they will have to eliminate the other to win.

If they eliminate the VT then they cross shoot leaving town guaranteed victor.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #808 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:26 pm

ok look at it from the POV of the SK.

they know the BG+Doctor are protecting each other.

they know the mafia cant kill BG or Doctor.

so if they shoot the mafia, they open tommorrow at SK vs 2 conftown

which is auto loss

hence the SK will not shoot the mafia

look at it from the point of view of the mafia:

they don't even know who the SK is.

but lets say they do know who the SK is.

if they shoot the SK, they open tommorrow as what ? conftown+VT vs Mafia? is that winning for the mafia?

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #809 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:27 pm

like if we elim a groupscum here, we lose all motivation for cross-shooting and SK/Mafia will aim at town

MathBlade · Post Post #810 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:46 pm

In post 808, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:ok look at it from the POV of the SK.

they know the BG+Doctor are protecting each other.

they know the mafia cant kill BG or Doctor.

so if they shoot the mafia, they open tommorrow at SK vs 2 conftown

which is auto loss

hence the SK will not shoot the mafia

look at it from the point of view of the mafia:

they don't even know who the SK is.

but lets say they do know who the SK is.

if they shoot the SK, they open tommorrow as what ? conftown+VT vs Mafia? is that winning for the mafia?

It’s better than the other option mafia has.

Say we elim SK today.

Then we have me and DV who autoprotect each other.

Mafia shoots at not conf town and they die.

So we have one VT and two conf town v 2 mafia.

That becomes win or lose tomorrow which gives at best 33% odds.

MathBlade · Post Post #811 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:47 pm

And that doesn’t account for if DV or myself go rogue and try to save a kill either.

MathBlade · Post Post #812 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:49 pm

Mafia absolutely need the kill of BG or Doctor or they’re screwed. If they lose any mafia at all and SK doesn’t kill in me/DV then they’re fucked so mafia has to sell the no cross kill argument

But if SK doesn’t cross kill they lose

MathBlade · Post Post #813 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:51 pm

If we elim VT then SK kills BG or Doc
Mafia can’t shoot BG or Doc as it’s a waste so they either kill SK or kill VT

So then SK just loses as 2 mafia v 1 town and 1 SK

MathBlade · Post Post #814 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:53 pm

In post 804, DeasVail wrote:Most of all I want to make sure we avoid a situation where there are 2 groupscum left

100% this which is why I think we go Pooky.

I don’t think he is town here. Do you think Pooky is group scum DV?

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #815 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:58 pm

In post 810, MathBlade wrote:It’s better than the other option mafia has.

Say we elim SK today.

Then we have me and DV who autoprotect each other.

Mafia shoots at not conf town and they die.

So we have one VT and two conf town v 2 mafia.

That becomes win or lose tomorrow which gives at best 33% odds.

?

if we elim sk

mafia shoots vt

then its 2v2 and a draw

DeasVail · Post Post #816 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:29 pm

In post 814, MathBlade wrote:
In post 804, DeasVail wrote:Most of all I want to make sure we avoid a situation where there are 2 groupscum left
100% this which is why I think we go Pooky.

I don’t think he is town here. Do you think Pooky is group scum DV?

UNVOTE:

I do, yes.

I will think about this more but I think I do agree with Math that eliminating mafia is best

DeasVail · Post Post #817 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:30 pm

In post 815, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 810, MathBlade wrote:It’s better than the other option mafia has.

Say we elim SK today.

Then we have me and DV who autoprotect each other.

Mafia shoots at not conf town and they die.

So we have one VT and two conf town v 2 mafia.

That becomes win or lose tomorrow which gives at best 33% odds.

?

if we elim sk

mafia shoots vt

then its 2v2 and a draw

I do not play to draw

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #818 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:45 pm

ok if you elim group scum

you will go into night with

BG+Doc, VT, SK, Mafia

SK will shoot in BG/Doc

Mafia will shoot VT

tommorrow it will be Conftown + Mafia + SK.

which is always a town loss

MathBlade · Post Post #819 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:50 pm

In post 818, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:ok if you elim group scum

you will go into night with

BG+Doc, VT, SK, Mafia

SK will shoot in BG/Doc

Mafia will shoot VT

tommorrow it will be Conftown + Mafia + SK.

which is always a town loss

It’s actually not. Town just votes no elim and prays for cross kill as mafia and SK don’t win

Mafia won’t shoot town unless they want to avoid that. They have to shoot SK

MathBlade · Post Post #820 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:51 pm

If I get left in that then I just no vote. I either get everyone lives by continuous no elim or someone is chicken.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #821 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:54 pm

the only setup we can be in is PPPKTTT

which means the 2 protective roles are confirmed town to each other

so let's say we elim one of the groupscum today and we go into night with 2 conftown protectives, VT, Strongman SK, Mafia

The SK knows the Mafia can't kill the conftowns since the conftowns will protect each other

if the SK does not kill the protectives at night, the SK wakes up tommorrow vs 2 conftowns and autolosses

therefore the SK will ALWAYS shoot a protective.

the mafia KNOW this

if the Mafia shoots the SK,

then they wake up tommorrow with VT, Mafia, Conftown

which is basically always a loss for the Mafia

therefore the Mafia will not shoot the SK, the Mafia will shoot the VT

which means tommorrow we will wake up with

Conftown, Mafia, SK

which is always 100% a loss for the town.

if the mafia or SK is voted out, the town loses

if the conftown is voted out, the town loses

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #822 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:55 pm

In post 819, MathBlade wrote:It’s actually not. Town just votes no elim and prays for cross kill as mafia and SK don’t win

Mafia won’t shoot town unless they want to avoid that. They have to shoot SK

why would the mafia and the SK decide to no lim and go to night and shoot each other to let town win?

they can just vote out the townie

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #823 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:55 pm

like you're assuming the mafia/sk both just decide to throw the game to the town at the end lol

MathBlade · Post Post #824 (ISO) » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:57 pm

The latter is not a loss for town

You’ve literally argued we can’t elim anyone here Pooky

You’ve argued we can’t elim the SK else mafia wins
You’ve argued we can’t elim mafia else it’s a tie town likely wins with a game of chicken or draws.
You’ve rightly pointed out we can’t elim town

We also can’t no elim Pooky

So what do you suggest we do do since we can’t no elim and there’s no one in your eyes we can elim?