Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Isis]

Pedit: ok yeah more finality, just discussing the next minigames instead of most of my ketchup Do you view our minigame as over? It feels like the nudge of difference between demona having a very good protown arc and being informed

actually i'd like to talk about this further. what part of your catch up should i have been responding to there? you didn't say anything new or interesting (as relating to my scumread on you). why is it scummy to you to throw out my thoughts on the other minigames after saying hello?

i didn't have any must-reply items in mind. 1536 is undeveloped and 1506 removes something I thought could give me understanding over your SR with nothing to replace it so it makes sense I remember feeling dissatisfied around the time of that post. I realize on a fact check that I didn't pass you the mic in any way but that was my ~feelings~

[catboi]

I caught up to 1363 in Chara's ISO and I still like the post, not just for how the read is presented but the elaboration of the thought of behind it. I need to reread absinthe at some point bu I probably need a break from the computer right now.

[Isis]

rereading chara's iso i'm getting a lot of happy townvibes
idk how much weight to put into that but yeah

Chara's d1 is pretty happyvibes yes
And its scumgame is more joyless, it's almost a watermark

[Coral]

That isn't really what my impression was but I expect you know it better so maybe I'm wrong

[Isis]

Mm

It has nonzero ability to simulate contentedness, and demona and Chara can't both be town.

[Isis]

Chara why did you switch from not wanting to minigame with me early d1 to wanting to late d1? I am like 100% sure you told me but want to hear it again and you're welcome to take that admission and yell at me instead

[skitter30]

rereading chara's iso i'm getting a lot of happy townvibes
idk how much weight to put into that but yeah

Chara's d1 is pretty happyvibes yes
And its scumgame is more joyless, it's almost a watermark

Yes but if it's town
I'm left with scum-you

[Chara]

Chara why did you switch from not wanting to minigame with me early d1 to wanting to late d1? I am like 100% sure you told me but want to hear it again and you're welcome to take that admission and yell at me instead

you reminded me of that game and i decided i might be able to read you, and i thought it would be fun.

[Isis]

that makes more sense for townChara than scumChara

Going in anyway would kind of give you a character to play into, I don't think you relish that

which reasons do you townread demona for?

[absinthe]

I'm headed back to the start of day 2. Will probably need to do this in 2 time chunks.

[Coral]

rereading chara's iso i'm getting a lot of happy townvibes
idk how much weight to put into that but yeah

Chara's d1 is pretty happyvibes yes
And its scumgame is more joyless, it's almost a watermark

Yes but if it's town
I'm left with scum-you

Are you confident in demona town, then?

[Isis]

I feel more and more like voting Chara is an EV play but Chara isn't playing like gladiated scum and demona is playing like scum in an endgame phase of a game of mafia.

[skitter30]

rereading chara's iso i'm getting a lot of happy townvibes
idk how much weight to put into that but yeah

Chara's d1 is pretty happyvibes yes
And its scumgame is more joyless, it's almost a watermark

Yes but if it's town
I'm left with scum-you

Are you confident in demona town, then?

No but i feel better abt town-demona than town-isis now

[Ydrasse]

GUMDROP GATE

[0]

absinthe:

[0]

Coral:

[3]

Not voting:

absinthe, Coral,

Tempest

WAFER WALL

[0]

demona:

[0]

Isis:

[0]

Chara:

[3]

Not voting:

demona, Isis, Chara

KRAMPUS KEEP

[0]

MathBlade:

[0]

skitter30:

[0]

catboi:

[3]

Not voting:

MathBlade, skitter30, catboi

MOD NOTES

• The day will end in (expired on 2022-12-31 09:19:18)

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane

[Ydrasse]

MathBlade replaces Faker.

[MathBlade]

Hi! Catching up now. Anyone wanna TLDR me?

I have about an hour before I have to nap and take roommates to the airport.

[absinthe]

I know Faker's getting replaced, but I'll poke at posts that bug me or otherwise are noteworthy anyway.

LMAO okay yes that makes a lot more sense

idk i know if you’re town you want to not be a paranoid mess but things like this make it impossible

Elaborate?

It does make sense for scum-ffery to want to try to get out of that keep

this sounds like you know catboi and Faker are town.

I'm grateful for not being swapped into the Wall, but I don't think it rules out a 1-1-1 distribution entirely.

Isis is scum at... i want to say 80% confidence, which for me is very high. this is the outcome i expected if demona wasn't swapped out, though that doesn't mean i'm any more prepared for the next phase.

feel free to vote for isis

i would be super happy to play as confirmed (noone is

really

going to argue that i stayed in the game as a scum to, like, manipulate the other games or whatever, right?)

I may be reading into this post, but encouraging someone to vote in your elo so soon after the day starts is hmm.

Tempest, thoughts on absinthe swapping in? My impression is that she'd likely be scared of you in a similar way that she would be scared of Cabd, but if she has to go somewhere I think this arrangement makes a lot of sense (Keep is 99% a loss if she stays with me, might think knowledge of you is an advantage/can be exploited even if reverse is true too)

Just going to point out that I wanted to go to the Keep with Tempest. Which doesn't really negate this as a reason to scumread me, but w/e.

On a similar note my confidence in Faker in the first phase was mainly done to see how scum would react to it, my anticipation was that in a world where Faker truly is town, scum would basically never let us stay together because I'd all but promised a vote there.


Additionally it makes more or less perfect sense in a world where skitter is town for scum to move her here because she's highly unlikely to vote for me.

This makes as much or more sense than the scenarios I was thinking about being moved out of the keep. I felt like the keep is the place where being misread wouldn't be harmful in itself. It would be down to my getting accurate reads.

i'd also like to point out that between Isis and demona at the wall vs. the configuration at the gate, does scum Chara choose to duke it out against Isis?

Your thoughts on this, Isis?

1258 is very specific to a behavior and is not at all a read of me, and you were very explicit about not having any reads you felt strongly about.

I mean, whatever, I meant for it to look that way

1359 also isn't really true. It's about who town has to pick between. skitter is probably more afraid of my scumplay than any other player at the table. I'm not good at reading her and have got it reversed basically every time.

I don't follow. Skitter had explicitly stated a scumread on me at multiple points in the previous phase. I'm speaking from the perspective of knowing I am town (obviously).

skitter swapping to keep as scum with absinthe is borderline nonsensical in my eyes unless you think they did it hoping people level themselves, but it'd be probably outright -EV in both instances. skitter being scum with coral also feels fairly unlikely. She's not averse to extended theater with teammates but typically she'd need rapport with the teammate and the way the back and forth with coral went didn't feel s/s

I don't think scum-me would have sat still for being swapped to the gate. it would depend a lot on the make-up of the team, though.

i think she's been playing defensively since we started. it'd be the easiest win in a minigame for her to miselim me, though i do think her desire to go where i go is also a genuine "i want to play with Chara" feeling and not a ploy, just one that happens to also work out with her goals.

i was really hoping for this outcome because i think if Isis and i

are

both town we can find each other, even if demona if scum is being exceedingly town to me and Isis both. unfortunately the game has in a way just started.

i got sidetracked but my main reasoning is this is an ideal situation for scum Isis. i started considering it seriously in 236, it feels like she's been playing to me to make me easier to handle. (and that Coral read is very... i don't know, obvious?)
when i said i didn't want to be in a minigame with her and i just hoped she was town, she brought up the time i was rightly suspicious of her as scum. a way to make me more confident i can read her.

i haven't reread with this in mind re: the timing of demona's locking in Wall.

"defensive" wouldn't really be a word that comes to mind to describe Isis's play although I see your point about 236 I guess, will review it at some point. Had lingering suspicion of Isis for gut reasons but

with the clarity of distributions things are coming into focus more so not as sure.

I don't get what you mean by the bolded?

I think absinthe's whole spiel about being okay with going to the keep and being able to control her own destiny there was very town and strongly favor her being town over coral

Strongly disagree. I don't think it made sense to go to the Keep with me under those circumstances, and she hit the wrong notes with me literally from start to finish yesterday.

Start was very awkward/wonky and she went full deer in the headlights when I got started. She similarly got caught off when the switchup to the narrative you're describing had essentially no effect.

Welp. Don't know what much of this is in reference to. From my perspective, the only headwinds I've been fighting are all the misreads, and trying to figure out which ones are faked.

...Do you mind walking me through why I'm in the Keep as scum, along with why I swap out someone that I am 100% sure I can snow in absinthe?

I'd like to think this confidence is fake!

...Do you mind walking me through why I'm in the Keep as scum, along with why I swap out someone that I am 100% sure I can snow in absinthe?

in this game keep is the most difficult location to play as scum and there's a decent likelihood you have a higher confidence level than anyone else in pulling it off and winning here

absinthe had expressed the possibility of voting for me and she is much more valuable as a potential mis-elim elsewhere than staying here if that's the case

I thought I had mitigated the mislim potential with my keep pick. The reasons why I was moved out of the keep in the first game were murky to me before the keep flips. given Briar-scum, I figured it was to prevent pooky from deciding to vote me.

[skitter30]

Heya math
Not sure if this is gonna be a great replacement from my pov tbh

[MathBlade]

I know Faker's getting replaced, but I'll poke at posts that bug me or otherwise are noteworthy anyway.

LMAO okay yes that makes a lot more sense

idk i know if you’re town you want to not be a paranoid mess but things like this make it impossible

Elaborate?

It does make sense for scum-ffery to want to try to get out of that keep

this sounds like you know catboi and Faker are town.

I'm grateful for not being swapped into the Wall, but I don't think it rules out a 1-1-1 distribution entirely.

Isis is scum at... i want to say 80% confidence, which for me is very high. this is the outcome i expected if demona wasn't swapped out, though that doesn't mean i'm any more prepared for the next phase.

feel free to vote for isis

i would be super happy to play as confirmed (noone is

really

going to argue that i stayed in the game as a scum to, like, manipulate the other games or whatever, right?)

I may be reading into this post, but encouraging someone to vote in your elo so soon after the day starts is hmm.

Tempest, thoughts on absinthe swapping in? My impression is that she'd likely be scared of you in a similar way that she would be scared of Cabd, but if she has to go somewhere I think this arrangement makes a lot of sense (Keep is 99% a loss if she stays with me, might think knowledge of you is an advantage/can be exploited even if reverse is true too)

Just going to point out that I wanted to go to the Keep with Tempest. Which doesn't really negate this as a reason to scumread me, but w/e.

On a similar note my confidence in Faker in the first phase was mainly done to see how scum would react to it, my anticipation was that in a world where Faker truly is town, scum would basically never let us stay together because I'd all but promised a vote there.


Additionally it makes more or less perfect sense in a world where skitter is town for scum to move her here because she's highly unlikely to vote for me.

This makes as much or more sense than the scenarios I was thinking about being moved out of the keep. I felt like the keep is the place where being misread wouldn't be harmful in itself. It would be down to my getting accurate reads.

i'd also like to point out that between Isis and demona at the wall vs. the configuration at the gate, does scum Chara choose to duke it out against Isis?

Your thoughts on this, Isis?

1258 is very specific to a behavior and is not at all a read of me, and you were very explicit about not having any reads you felt strongly about.

I mean, whatever, I meant for it to look that way

1359 also isn't really true. It's about who town has to pick between. skitter is probably more afraid of my scumplay than any other player at the table. I'm not good at reading her and have got it reversed basically every time.

I don't follow. Skitter had explicitly stated a scumread on me at multiple points in the previous phase. I'm speaking from the perspective of knowing I am town (obviously).

skitter swapping to keep as scum with absinthe is borderline nonsensical in my eyes unless you think they did it hoping people level themselves, but it'd be probably outright -EV in both instances. skitter being scum with coral also feels fairly unlikely. She's not averse to extended theater with teammates but typically she'd need rapport with the teammate and the way the back and forth with coral went didn't feel s/s

I don't think scum-me would have sat still for being swapped to the gate. it would depend a lot on the make-up of the team, though.

i think she's been playing defensively since we started. it'd be the easiest win in a minigame for her to miselim me, though i do think her desire to go where i go is also a genuine "i want to play with Chara" feeling and not a ploy, just one that happens to also work out with her goals.

i was really hoping for this outcome because i think if Isis and i

are

both town we can find each other, even if demona if scum is being exceedingly town to me and Isis both. unfortunately the game has in a way just started.

i got sidetracked but my main reasoning is this is an ideal situation for scum Isis. i started considering it seriously in 236, it feels like she's been playing to me to make me easier to handle. (and that Coral read is very... i don't know, obvious?)
when i said i didn't want to be in a minigame with her and i just hoped she was town, she brought up the time i was rightly suspicious of her as scum. a way to make me more confident i can read her.

i haven't reread with this in mind re: the timing of demona's locking in Wall.

"defensive" wouldn't really be a word that comes to mind to describe Isis's play although I see your point about 236 I guess, will review it at some point. Had lingering suspicion of Isis for gut reasons but

with the clarity of distributions things are coming into focus more so not as sure.

I don't get what you mean by the bolded?

I think absinthe's whole spiel about being okay with going to the keep and being able to control her own destiny there was very town and strongly favor her being town over coral

Strongly disagree. I don't think it made sense to go to the Keep with me under those circumstances, and she hit the wrong notes with me literally from start to finish yesterday.

Start was very awkward/wonky and she went full deer in the headlights when I got started. She similarly got caught off when the switchup to the narrative you're describing had essentially no effect.

Welp. Don't know what much of this is in reference to. From my perspective, the only headwinds I've been fighting are all the misreads, and trying to figure out which ones are faked.

...Do you mind walking me through why I'm in the Keep as scum, along with why I swap out someone that I am 100% sure I can snow in absinthe?

I'd like to think this confidence is fake!

...Do you mind walking me through why I'm in the Keep as scum, along with why I swap out someone that I am 100% sure I can snow in absinthe?

in this game keep is the most difficult location to play as scum and there's a decent likelihood you have a higher confidence level than anyone else in pulling it off and winning here

absinthe had expressed the possibility of voting for me and she is much more valuable as a potential mis-elim elsewhere than staying here if that's the case

I thought I had mitigated the mislim potential with my keep pick. The reasons why I was moved out of the keep in the first game were murky to me before the keep flips. given Briar-scum, I figured it was to prevent pooky from deciding to vote me.

Thank you. This gives me some quick places to focus in on.

Has anyone analyzed the group split process?

[MathBlade]

Heya math
Not sure if this is gonna be a great replacement from my pov tbh

No such thing long as you have fun.

Why do you think my replacement is or isn’t great?

I could be a clone of you what makes me different?

[skitter30]

Tammy is ic'd at gate
Current consensus is ffery is scum there

Catboi/faker were both leaning towards voting me in keep, which is good

And wall is the difficult one

[skitter30]

We don't have a great track record of reaching each other

[skitter30]

I was somewhat lost on who was town in catboi/faker

[absinthe]

Current consensus is ffery is scum there

Is this actually consensus? not rebutting it, yet at least. I have a lot of pages to read.

[MathBlade]

Tammy is ic'd at gate
Current consensus is ffery is scum there

Catboi/faker were both leaning towards voting me in keep, which is good

And wall is the difficult one

Who is ffery? I don’t see them in the player list.

And with it being three individual games I will be resetting all reads.