Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[MathBlade]

I gotta sleep now to drive roommates to the airport but if I have premises off let me know.

[MathBlade]

And math i don't really think the swap points to me/ffery being the same alignment tbh

Why not?

I don’t see why scum would make a swap that forces them to stick out.

I’d make all the games hard so winning 2/3rds becomes likely as scum.

[skitter30]

Why would it ?
It could only be that way if the minigames were unbalanced eod, and wd don't know that they were

[absinthe]

I don't think cat's explanation that I'd prefer you to absinthe here makes a ton of sense. Tempest scumread you and I can manipulate her into leaning into it from Keep. I've had my fun with you in Melancholia, while ffery hasn't gotten to face me yet. The only points for it are "+challenge" and "Supreme confidence that I'll win anyway", but I'm on record in another game as Keep being explicitly to my strengths as town and my favored game. I started out angling elsewhere then

went out of my way

to go to Keep anyway precisely because I love how the game is styled.

I'm curious as to what you think about the recent back/forth. I also think Tempest should weigh in.

I'm not sure:
- i'm only half skimming rn and will actually reread ajd think abt this after work
- i don't follow why cat thinks i don't swap there
- i think that you/ffery beinf scum together is wild given you pressuring her to join keep yesterday. If she is town i do see an element of you enjoying the challenge of me being here and doing this swap, esp. if she has very strong feelings abt being elsewhere (this is true for catboi as well)
- i'll see what tammy says r.e. me voting but i am nowhere close to making a decision at this time. I also think this is more likely to get resolved via you two voting. I would prefer on me since i know i'm town but eh
- in a vaccuum catboi feels scummy to me but (esp. In this back and forth) but i am very, very worried abt getting snowed by either of you

I feel like getting me into the gate was probably more the goal than getting you into the keep.

I would prefer on me since i know i'm town but eh

if a vote is placed on not you and you are town then town loses the keep

unless the ‘eh’ was like,

like ‘well we all lose sometimes’

in which case yes but also! i would rather not

I imagine someone's already

Chara pointed this up. A vote on not-skitter loses the keep if the not-skitter is scum. The not-skitter could also be town.

On the one hand I don’t mind being confirmed because that removes my concern that I fuck up the game by being misread. But now there’s the issue of getting it right and the situation I said was the one I’d not be keen to end up in is the exact situation I’m in. While I would want to get it right with anyone, Ffery is the one person I’d be putting the most pressure upon myself of getting right that I fear the most I won’t get right. I think in any other game I get it right almost every time, but here I worry I end up like I did in our deathy and I shudder to think about that.

We got there in the dethy! Though it may have actually required making it a masonry :/


Reading 1482, I think demona didn't mean what I thought she meant, but it's tough to parse.

[MathBlade]

FINAL VOTE COUNT

[3] Gumdrop Gate: skitter30, Coral, Tempest
[3] Wafer Wall: demona, Isis, Chara
[3] Krampus Keep: Faker, absinthe, catboi

Tempest is automatically assigned to the Gumdrop Gate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-12-20 19:59:56).

MOD NOTES

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane[/size]

This is the list preswap.

Assume top is all town. Then scum would choose from a two game to add into the top game.
Given Isis and Chara and absinthe and Catboi are all good scum, taking any one of those into a top versus skitter seems a better strategy. So then likely top is not all town.

Then if top has one scum then the game could be ran as is and swaps are same alignment

If top has two scum then a scum has to leave that area. That they didn’t swap Coral out and instead swapped out skitter doesn’t really jive with that.

So it’s probably 1 scum and game run as is. Coral gut is probably that scum as I don’t see skitter scum also not swapping in like a Chara or someone to make the game a hard read for a newer player.

In essence there’s a game Tempest has the ultimate call on.

[Chara]

Catboi or Skitter scum
Absinthe or Coral scum
Demona Isis or Chara scum.

we already know this to be an absolute truth (besides Math being town of course) due to the nature of the game. 1 scum is confirmed in each mini game, this is just that restated. is that the point? the only difference is you've taken Math out of the skitter/catboi group because it's your pov.

[absinthe]

Does Tempest not leave after the Gate is solved? That's a huge improvement over the original setup.

I was hilariously wrong about Coral yesterday. And I don't plan to vote anytime soon.

Faker -- I believe you know in your bones that me getting and keeping a townread on you is not a slam dunk

catboi -- you wouldn't move me out of the keep two games straight would you?

skitter -- I'm trying to decide which makes more sense. That you were moved out of the Gate because of your alignment or because of your reads.

structurally this post kind of sets me on edge. not doing anything with it just making the observation.

That question in and of itself seems kind of silly? Like, yeah, I'd double down if I think I could get away with it/it was the best move. I have no fucking clue what I'm doing here if I'm scum and chose to remove the person most likely to vote for me to leave myself with two of the people

least

likely to vote for me, as well as one who I'd be most concerned with outshining me. That just seems to be terrible play on its face, which shouldn't be hard from your pov.

I like this.

[absinthe]

lol and I commented on the post earlier. The thing I like is your comment about the trade not making sense from a scum-you perspective due to your confidence of me voting for you.

I'm having trouble internalizing I'm not in the keep. :/

[Coral]

MathBlade, please try not to jump to conclusions about the game prior to actually understanding the setup. You're probably best off just rereading the game from the start and going for pure gameplay reads, and focusing on your own minigame.

We can help answer any confusions about the setup that you may have. To answer the question of if you have premises off, the answer is yes, generally.

I think everyone in this game passes a certain bar of skill at both alignments to where I would recommend against making reads based on your perceptions of their strengths as an alignment in a vacuum. More nuanced takes of how players might perceive their own ability in certain matchups could be useful, though.

I disagree with skitter and absinthe being for sure S/S. I think S/T is more likely. An S/S swap would likely be for the goal of hoping catboi and Faker turn on each other and vote the third, knowing they're more likely to do that with skitter than with absinthe. That's a possibility worth considering, but on play I think it's less likely.

Your statements that "demona Isis and Chara contains a town" and "me, absinthe, catboi contains a town" are not meaningful, because we already know that given the current groupings. demona, Isis, and Chara contain two town, because they are one group. You and catboi contains at least one town, because you are in the same group.

[absinthe]

Scum-you moving me out of the keep doesn't make sense unless you weren't as sure I'd vote you as you've indicated. Scum-Faker moving me out of the keep after so much effort to get me into the keep doesn't make sense, period but would be hilarious if true. Scum-skitter would probably like to not go up against Tammy in the Gate. Maybe she sees the keep as an easier win given how minigames shaped up.

So you're leaning toward town-Faker right now?

I'm concerned about how Faker's gone full-in on a scumread of me. My read went a little south by the end of day 1, mostly because of how they seemed to be taking full credit for pushing me into the keep. My first post exists, and aside from angsting over picking correctly between the two of you, nothing suggested me in another minigame looked like a good thing for town.

Understood, I guess. Do you have thoughts on the Wall? that game feels the trickiest to me right now.

I agree it feels tricky. Maybe because it's the threesome I have the least amount of experience with. I'm trying to compare Isis in this game vs the hood game you modded. I feel like she was more decisive, but very different setups and playerlists. Though the scum choosing who went where parallels the scum swap ability in this game.

And Chara feels *more* decisive in this game than in the others we've played, especially Yggdrasil. Large themes, though.

Chara wanting you & Faker to take a break reminds me of how it tried to make peace between my hydra and LLD.

[Isis]

Catboi hood game?

[Coral]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

[Chara]

Chara wanting you & Faker to take a break reminds me of how it tried to make peace between my hydra and LLD.

do you think that's an AI behavior? Faker is my friend as well.

[MathBlade]

MathBlade, please try not to jump to conclusions about the game prior to actually understanding the setup. You're probably best off just rereading the game from the start and going for pure gameplay reads, and focusing on your own minigame.

We can help answer any confusions about the setup that you may have. To answer the question of if you have premises off, the answer is yes, generally.

I think everyone in this game passes a certain bar of skill at both alignments to where I would recommend against making reads based on your perceptions of their strengths as an alignment in a vacuum. More nuanced takes of how players might perceive their own ability in certain matchups could be useful, though.

I disagree with skitter and absinthe being for sure S/S. I think S/T is more likely. An S/S swap would likely be for the goal of hoping catboi and Faker turn on each other and vote the third, knowing they're more likely to do that with skitter than with absinthe. That's a possibility worth considering, but on play I think it's less likely.

Your statements that "demona Isis and Chara contains a town" and "me, absinthe, catboi contains a town" are not meaningful, because we already know that given the current groupings. demona, Isis, and Chara contain two town, because they are one group. You and catboi contains at least one town, because you are in the same group.

I like to start with what I feel the optimal strategy is. Yes, sometimes there is deviations. But then those stick out a lot more.

No matter what scum would do the best strategy to win all three games which means either A) they can win all three or B) sac one and win 2.

I do plan on reading the thread but I wanted to see if anyone found my optimal strategy pre posts flawed, which it seems like you do. It becomes a matter of if that flaw is genuine or you don’t like the Coral + Catboi team I noted it implied as a possible team earlier. (The other skitter + absinthe)

Sometimes things aren’t meant for you but meant for me so I can compare back. I am not looking to have some major massive aha insight here. There’s certain things that are suggested but that’s all they are.

By starting with facts and reducing wine makes things really fast for me, which makes me deadly town in flipless weirdly enough because scum aren’t as versed as hiding it and am rather deadly. This setup just reads like three flipless games and that’s how I am treating it.

If my relational premises are wrong it will come out on a read.

What I find really odd is both you and Skitter disagree and one of you is scum. And only one. But you disagree in different ways. Which means something is close for one of you.

[absinthe]

skitter -- I'm trying to decide which makes more sense. That you were moved out of the Gate because of your alignment or because of your reads.

Plz elaborate on the 'because of your alignment' bit

Either there were two scum in the gate, the scum in the keep thought you'd misread them, or it's purely shenanigans.

In the first game, the swap was part shenanigans and part to increase the probability of scum winning the keep. The scum ratio at the start of night 1 were 1-1-1.

So i guess which of these do you think is the world we live in?

I think we live in a world where there was more to the move than pure shenanigans. If you're town, I think me in the gate was preferable to you in the gate based on our day 1s. At least in scum eyes.

I believe I can dig myself out of this hole, but that doesn't mean scum would believe it.

[Chara]

if it's not obvious my energy's tanked, hopefully i bounce back sooner rather than later.

[MathBlade]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

Never ever read Skitter honest as town.

Skitter has one of the best scum games on MS. And I’ve seen some doozies.

Skitter (and myself) are both top tier scum who do honest lying really really well.

I have no doubt that’s skitter’s emotion it’s a matter of why to sort her

[Coral]

I do plan on reading the thread but I wanted to see if anyone found my optimal strategy pre posts flawed, which it seems like you do. It becomes a matter of if that flaw is genuine or you don’t like the Coral + Catboi team I noted it implied as a possible team earlier.

The "optimal strategy" is unclear, but if I'm understanding it correctly, it's based on faulty premises and disregards alternative options for no reason.

What I find really odd is both you and Skitter disagree and one of you is scum. And only one. But you disagree in different ways. Which means something is close for one of you.

There's no mechanical reason that one of me and skitter should be scum.

[absinthe]

Chara wanting you & Faker to take a break reminds me of how it tried to make peace between my hydra and LLD.

do you think that's an AI behavior? Faker is my friend as well.

That's been evident to me!

The main difference I saw is that there's a lot more warmth to your peacemaking here. Is that AI? I'm not ready to try and figure that out. I haven't read carefully through that part of the thread yet, but I'm closing in.

[MathBlade]

Sort of like if you’re told a doctor and cop are in a setup.

Barring limitations if the doctor knows who the cop is, the doc will heal the cop if town.

Then it becomes well the cop died.

Then you’re looking for exceptions (roleblock, macho, 1 shot) etc.

So in this case what is the optimal placement, then if deviations happen why?

[MathBlade]

GUMDROP GATE

[0]

absinthe:

[0]

Coral:

[3]

Not voting:

absinthe, Coral,

Tempest

WAFER WALL

[0]

demona:

[0]

Isis:

[0]

Chara:

[3]

Not voting:

demona, Isis, Chara

KRAMPUS KEEP

[0]

MathBlade:

[0]

skitter30:

[0]

catboi:

[3]

Not voting:

MathBlade, skitter30, catboi

MOD NOTES

• The day will end in (expired on 2022-12-31 09:19:18)

• have fun!

• v/la: none!

• free candy cane

Derp I got the C names mixed up. Rip it’s super late lol

This is why I was saving reading for the morning

[Coral]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

Never ever read Skitter honest as town.

Skitter has one of the best scum games on MS. And I’ve seen some doozies.

Skitter (and myself) are both top tier scum who do honest lying really really well.

I have no doubt that’s skitter’s emotion it’s a matter of why to sort her

I'm sure you have only the best intentions, but I'm familiar with skitter, and I've already taken the strength of her scumgame into account when making that read. The advice is noted but does not affect my opinion!

[Coral]

Sort of like if you’re told a doctor and cop are in a setup.

Barring limitations if the doctor knows who the cop is, the doc will heal the cop if town.

Then it becomes well the cop died.

Then you’re looking for exceptions (roleblock, macho, 1 shot) etc.

So in this case what is the optimal placement, then if deviations happen why?

Right. Well. I think reading the game to see how the decisions for groupings played out will help you get a better sense of what the possibilities for what scum believed to be optimal placements were.

[MathBlade]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

Never ever read Skitter honest as town.

Skitter has one of the best scum games on MS. And I’ve seen some doozies.

Skitter (and myself) are both top tier scum who do honest lying really really well.

I have no doubt that’s skitter’s emotion it’s a matter of why to sort her

I'm sure you have only the best intentions, but I'm familiar with skitter, and I've already taken the strength of her scumgame into account when making that read. The advice is noted but does not affect my opinion!

You definitely don’t sound like a new player.

But your date is June.

I am not alt hunting but you said you had experience with Skitter and I want to see if you’re “experienced”.

On a scale of 1 to 10 1 = newbie 10 = 400 year old wizard
Where are you on experience?

On a scale of 1 to 10 1 = gut 10 = logic where are you?

I kinda have a vibe where I think you fall but I want to see if this vibe matches

[MathBlade]

Sort of like if you’re told a doctor and cop are in a setup.

Barring limitations if the doctor knows who the cop is, the doc will heal the cop if town.

Then it becomes well the cop died.

Then you’re looking for exceptions (roleblock, macho, 1 shot) etc.

So in this case what is the optimal placement, then if deviations happen why?

Right. Well. I think reading the game to see how the decisions for groupings played out will help you get a better sense of what the possibilities for what scum believed to be optimal placements were.

I find that’s a good mid tier step.

Starting at onset you use the “replacement” bonus of fresh eyes.

Scum typically don’t account for backwards reading which is why replacements are so deadly.