Micro 1067: Is There a Doctor in the House? - Game over!

[Pavowski]

Pagetop?

Official Round 1.3 Votecount

Elimination

Freedom

(2): GrandpaMo, Gimli

GrandpaMo

(2): Scoliosis, Enchant

Scoliosis

(1): Vanderscamp

Not Voting

(4): Galron, Freedom, Elements, Tabibitos


With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline

: (expired on 2023-01-11 14:17:17)

Mod notes:

Galron V/LA until 1/9.
I am using a vote counter. If the count seems off or other fookery is afoot, please let me know.

[Freedom]

Nurse should claim d1 imo

Otherwise shitshow of "OUR NURSE DIED N1 PROBABLY AND MAFIA FAKECLAIM IT" issue

Nurse BECOMES Doctor. And FLIPS as one.

They flip as Nurse regardless so if they get NKed, we woukd know.

[Enchant]

Oh ok then

[Gimli]

VOTE: galron

[GrandpaMo]

Unless we massclaim, which I don't think we should.

is this not a scumslip lollllll i told yall

abnegation pov slipped and freedom scumslipped twice now lol

[GrandpaMo]

i already know who nurse is btw they claimed in the beginning lol

[GrandpaMo]

its also interesting that micro 916 - viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81889

they played circular targeting they were able to solve from that.

it looks like if we condemn town today > 0-2 town die at night (mafia rarely dies)
0 at night if mafia nks (this is also rare)
0 at night if mafia is rbed
0 at night if doc cancel out
1 at night if doc kills
1 at night if doc cancel out
2 at night if doc kills / mafia kills
3 at night if all role actions are played out independently (this is rare, i dont think it has happened in a game yet)

if we condemn mafia > 0 or 1 town die at night.
0 at night if mafia nks (this is also rare)
0 at night if mafia is rbed
0 at night if doc cancel out
1 at night if doc kills
1 at night if doc cancel out

i think these are all the possible situations. if anyone can think of anything else feel free to add

technically there can be 4 town deaths if the quack doc kills, the cpr doc kills, the mafia kills, and the weak doc tries to save the maf.
an order like quack doc -> cpr doc -> jk -> vanilla doc -> naive doc -> weak doc -> mafia goon -> nurse -> mafia goon -> could cause this to happen.

ok so this is the pov slip i was talking about that abnegation did. i feel like only mafia would have the perspective of 4 being dead because they thought about the mafia killing. notice how they say "weak doc > mafia goon > nurse > mafia goon" just feels like TMI .

I don't agree with this read at all.

I think your recent posts are very town though

I agree. Wh0 doesn;t think about the mafia kill when playing mafia?

sorry this is not what i mean -- i will explain once i get back giv me a sec

[GrandpaMo]

You're misinterpreting me.
I meant that Doctor would be a safer fakeclaim then Nurse because we're all Doctors.

ur so confusing -- it looks like u keep flipflopping if u know that we are all docs or not

[Enchant]

I think it's classical F thing

[Elements]

Maths Behind 2 Groups!

Group 1: A, b, c, d -> E
Group 2: E, f, g, h -> A
(all this is the same if you replace A with E)

Spoiler: NAR and CPR

To make this easier on myself I am going to assume the following about the CPR doctor and night action resolutions:
Night actions resolve as instances:
Doctor and Weak Doctor add an instance of heal (+1) to a target.
Quack doctor and mafia kill add an instance of kill (-1) to a target.
CPR adds heal (+1) or kill (-1) depending.
(The only other night action is the Paranoid doctor which will always protect their target so we don't need to worry about that)

After all actions have resolved the instances on each player are summed to a give the player's [Status].
If a player's [Status]:
> 0 -> Player lives
= 0 -> Player lives
< 0 -> Player dies

When the CPR doctor resolves, it looks at the [Status] of its target before it acts.
If a player's [Status]:
> 0 -> CPR adds a kill (-1) and the player doesn't die
= 0 -> CPR adds a kill (-1) and the player dies
< 0 -> CPR adds a heal (+1) potentially saving the player

This is how CPR interaction and action resolution makes sense to me. If that's not how it works then welp I'm probably about to waste a lot of time lol!

Mafia kill does not target A

In order for A to die, one of group 1 must be the JK.
Therefore 3 roles will be told to target A.
35 combinations to target A.

Spoiler: Maths

7 roles left that can target A
7x6x5 = 210
Taking into account permutations
210/3! = 35

The second condition required for A to die is for the Quack or CPR to kill them.

Case without CPR

Without CPR the only way for A to die is by Quack killing them.
This happens is Quack is in Group 2 and is not Jail-kept.
There is a 3/10 chance for the Quack to kill this way.

Spoiler: Maths

Assuming no CPR and Quack is in the group
1x5x4 = 20
Accounting for permutations
20/2! = 10

	0	0	0	1	1
0	x	0	0	1	1
0	0	x	0	1	1
0	0	0	x	1	1
1	1	1	1	x	2
1	1	1	1	2	x

3/10 result in a kill

Case without Quack

Without the Quack, the CPR will act like a Quack so the above maths can be used.
3/10 chance of death.

Case with CPR and Quack

If the Quack were to kill the CPR will save the target so only the CPR can kill.
There is a 2/5 chance of death.

Spoiler: Maths

With CPR and Quack
1x1x5 =5
No permutations
Of these 5, 2 include a heal and 3 do not.
When there is a heal it will cancel out the Quack kill so the CPR will kill.
When there is no heal the CPR will see the target killed and so heal them.
Therefore 2/5 chance of death.

Overall

8/35 chance of killing the target.

Mafia kill does target A

We have 35 combinations of roles as before.
For A to die there must be more kills than heals on them.

Case with Quack but without CPR

There will be 2 kill instances on A.
A will only live if there are 2 heal instances.
There is only 1/10 chance of there being 2 heal instances.
There is a 9/10 chance of death.
(See Mafia kill doesn't target A subsection Case without CPR for maths)

Case with CPR but without Quack

Due to the additional kill on A, CPR doesn't act quite the same as before.
6/10 chance of death

Spoiler: Maths

Taking into account the kill instance from the mafia kill

-1	0	0	0	1	1
0	x	-1	-1	0	0
0	-1	x	-1	0	0
0	-1	-1	x	0	0
1	0	0	0	x	1
1	0	0	0	1	x

Green signifies when CPR acts to heal
Red signifies when CPR acts to kill
3/10 CPR saves A
6/10 CPR kills A
1/10 CPR kills A but they are saved

Case with Quack and CPR

In this scenario there are always 2 kill instances on A so the CPR will always act to heal.
3/5 chance of death.

Spoiler: Maths

If the third slot is a null: Mafia + Quack - CPR = Kill (x3)
If the third slot is a heal: Mafia + Quack - Heal - CPR = Live (x2)

Case without Quack or CPR

There is 1 kill instance in this scenario.
6/10 chance of death

Spoiler: Maths

For no heals we need all 3 nulls
3x2x1 = 6
The other combinations all have at least 1 heal so will save A

Overall

24/35 chance of death

Conclusion

If we co-ordinate our kills in the two group cross targeting system one of the targets will survive and the other probably will unless the mafia choose to kill them. The mafia don't know which group is targeted by the JK so choosing to kill one of the targets is risky for them. If both mafia are in the same group that might make them choose to kill their target as it's less likely for them to have the JK in their group but I personally wouldn't. The chance of both mafia being in the same group is 3/7 so it's not too unlikely.

Spoiler: Maths

Chance for mafia to both be in the same group is 1 - (chance only 1 mafia in a group)
2x6x5x4/3! = 40
Number of groups
8x7x6x5/4! = 70
1-4/7 = 3/7

Having done all this I think the two groups option works well to keep people alive but doesn't give us that much information on anyone's roles if that's what we're going for.

[Elements]

Tl;dr
Having done all this I think the two groups option works well to keep people alive but doesn't give us that much information on anyone's roles if that's what we're going for.

[Freedom]

I think it's classical F thing

Can you explain what you mean by this?

[Gimli]

do we conftown elements

[Gimli]

I don't deserve to be in the same town as elements

[Elements]

I don't deserve to be in the same town as elements

nah, I just did some maths
you totally deserve to be here <3

[Freedom]

do we conftown elements

Sure.

[Gimli]

I don't deserve to be in the same town as elements

nah, I just did some maths
you totally deserve to be here <3

cute <3

so, who are we limming?

[Elements]

pffft, wish I knew
I've done more mech spec than scum hunting so far so I think we should try that for a few das seeing as we have 7 left

[Enchant]

Someone has too much freetime

[Elements]

Someone has too much freetime

[Enchant]

Well that's truth so

[Tabibitos]

Sorry not enough time or energy for this yet (about the mech stuff), I am fine doing what you guys agree on if it comes to that

As for reads, I thought about it and maybe Enchant is town for wanting to try targetting someone on their own early, it can e a prerogative to dismiss mech but it's probably town excited for potentially being a vig? Vigging is exciting after all.

Grandpa feels more likely town than not by saying stuff like "I already know the Nurse" on a setup where the Nurse may end up claiming anyway (otherwise it could be rolefishing). Not too sure about grandpa but I don't feel very good about anyone else so I'm gonna like his slot for now.

Elements mech solving is interesting, don't know what to think of that, did you ever do it before Elements? On what game?

- Aether

[GrandpaMo]

do we conftown elements

yes we conf them because they claimed my role lelelellelelelelelelellelelelelelel u suc mafia

[GrandpaMo]

do we conftown elements

Sure.

pls get this out alreayd

ik i already voted freedom

but here

im like 100% on this being mafia . there is like no way. is it too scum to be scum?? are yallseeing something im not seeing?

VOTE: freedom

[GrandpaMo]

Elements mech solving is interesting, don't know what to think of that, did you ever do it before Elements? On what game?

im sorry but this feels like a useless question to ask because first, cant u just look up their meta

and 2nd u act like ur gonna follow up with elements because u have been gone for most the game and i missed u and like ugh idk what i do without u