Mini Normal 2285: GM [game over]

[Ydrasse]

like i get you’re saying it’s irrational but like ... why
val doesn’t seem the type to act like this

[Val89]

I don't think it's irrational at all. If I was more than about 80% sure Herta was flipping scum, I would go there, but I'm not, and if he

is

town, who is getting flipped tomorrow when the game most likely rides on it?

Ydra, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. You think I'm scum, just vote me. I'm not moving.

[Val89]

You might still end up flipping Herta tomorrow, but I think with my green card on the table, and the "Well, Val is just scum" excuse off the table, and KT dead, which lets be honest, is the most likely outcome overnight, town has better chance of making the right play in ELO than if Herta flips green with me alive.

[innocentvillager]

Val’s play gives me strong Billy Pilgrim VT vibes from mini normal 2201

I was scum but yeah

Too lazy to link it

[innocentvillager]

like i get you’re saying it’s irrational but like ... why
val doesn’t seem the type to act like this

I think it’s hard for scum to argue fervently with convoluted logic for their own elim when there is no real scum motivation to other than just AtE for the sake of it when he’s not really in danger of dying and scum are doing somewhat ok

[innocentvillager]

I think town do all sorts of things that are hard to understand and it’s more a function of town range being more expansive than scumrange for 95% of people

[innocentvillager]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=84069

Jk it’s 2160 not 2201

[Val89]

with convoluted logic

If you are going to keep saying these things, you are going to have to explain why, from your point of view, you think my logic falls down and we are in "irrational" territory, because it is perfectly rational to me. A town elim today might appear on the surface to be negative town, but not if it increases the towns chances of winning the game overall - which is the overall goal, not to be alive to see it.

If Herta is scum, fine, but if he isn't, and while I think he has some equity, I certainly wouldn't bet the game on it - and that's what I think I would be doing, because a Herta mislim straight into a Val one is exactly what is shaping up.

Look at this:

VOTE: Val

The more I think on it, the happier I am to make today a gladiate.

Fine by me.

Then you

[Val]

and Fire die and gg we win.

On day before ELO we always elim Ydrasse to confirm Skitter.

I hope the elim ends up on you

[Val]

and I am working towards it.

i vote herta or val

I feel it’s obviously not Herta but I think Herta is the only elim that’s viable today so it’s awkward.

not voting [3]: Ydrasse, innocentvillager, MathBlade

What's wrong with this picture?

[innocentvillager]

Idk can you tell us?

[innocentvillager]

Maybe irrational to us but rational to you

It’s really really difficult for me to imagine a world where arguing for your own elim is +town

Just like absurdly hard

I don’t think your world qualifies, but you seem to believe it through your convoluted logic. To me, that is very +town at least. I don’t want to dismiss it as irrational, sorry if you feel offended, I don’t doubt that you believe it is sound to you.

[innocentvillager]

I think the world where you are scum here is like, for whatever reason you are trying super hard to emulate how town you would play this, and you think this is how town you would about this spot so you’re doing it, with the upshot that maybe the AtE looks towny

[innocentvillager]

Which is possible but I’m willing to Occam’s razor that you’re town here because scum you said more likely to choose a more conventional approach with more straightforward non nitpicky logic that you’re more likely to come up with as town

[innocentvillager]

The reality is that people don’t really listen to dead townies like ever, maybe maybe if their night kill was super strange, but even then people like to push their own opinions. My point is your townflip doesn’t really provide much benefit to town as you think, we’re not just gonna kill your top scumread

[Val89]

2 things:

First, Mathblade says he is fine with today being a gladiate, and will result in a town win. Both his solves have me as scum. He has other people willing to vote me. He has voted for me to day - but then unvoted, and in doing so made Herta, someone he says is obviously not scum, the leading wagon. We know given the lines drawn today that at least one person, maybe more, is going have to compromise. He makes my own wagon less viable, and the Herta one more likely to end up the compromise, while complaining about that state of affairs.

Secondly:

By saying Herta is the only viable lim today, he implies Ydra is not viable. That's one that looks like it might be a viable compromise too, but not to math - despite math arguing - TODAY - that we always flip Ydra on the day before ELO. Isn't that today?

[innocentvillager]

Be very sad and rethink my entire existance, but i don't think we live in that universe

I don't know who the third is rn
But i think it's in {fire math ydra}

I'm not following the point abt town her faking a guilty ?

Can we kill you if Herta flips town

[Val89]

The reality is that people don’t really listen to dead townies like ever, maybe maybe if their night kill was super strange, but even then people like to push their own opinions. My point is your townflip doesn’t really provide much benefit to town as you think, we’re not just gonna kill your top scumread

Understood. It's not that I think you sheep me in death, it's that if Herta is a miss, I think I die - and the game is lost - tomorrow.

I think math!scum also knows that, and why his own actions are making my lim less likley, and the wagon he thinks is town more likely.

[Ydrasse]

mmmm
i have been wondering why this game went completely dead on all fronts
there was some votes and then nothing

[Ydrasse]

also fwiw val i’m not sold on you being scum but it just feels like when you say stuff like “i think ydra was softclaiming and then she had a partner rep in and they decided to switch all of that” there is no rebuttal i have but “that isn’t true, i wasn’t softing this” because it turns into what feels like us arguing over which one is lying without proof? or i guess i literally just feel like i can’t do much more than say “that’s literally untrue”
to me it feels like an argument meant to be loud and abrasive without a lot of places to be chipped away at because you’re being so like stubborn abt it you just keep yelling

like idk i’m literally willing to hear out your math case more and not die on the hill

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Firebringer

[innocentvillager]

Fire can you talk to me about your general thoughts rn? How do you feel about how the game has progressed, who is scum, where is your headspace at?

[Val89]

It's a balance of probability thing: You can't say "I've won the lottery jackpot twice", and when I say "I don't know you, and thus can't directly prove you haven't, but I think it's more likely than not you are lying", expect me to take "well, I can't prove I have, but it's your word against mine so since there are two of us its 50-50" as a serious rebuttal.

The facts are these: You said the following.

Spoiler:

it’s not against the rules but scum does in fact benefit in knowing about protectives

stares at you until you understand

I bet you’re scum and already know the answer, that’s why you’re saying this :3

stares at you until You Understand

In the same hour, you said:

i prove i town soon so paranoid for nothing this time i prom

And it continues:

as said many times before

i take care of self so no need for paranoid this game

shhhh just trust that i solve myself later ok

i have a card up my sleeve which means i get to be silly and goofy

don’t forget i’m town

just making sure no one forgets

i have specific skills that i can provide

i do be self resolving as a treat

funniest world is mafia doctor

When I suggested to mathblade that you were softing you knew why nobody had died N1:

I do also happen to think Ydrasse has been dropping heavy hints she knows why there was no kill.

Your response was:

i have information that will lead to [shot down before i can finish]

Same day:

didnt u say u were gonna prove ur town or something

yes but now isn't the time to talk about it
stares at you until you understand

The next day, you claimed one-shot disloyal checker. In other words, you had no information as to why there was a night one no-kill, you were not self-resolving at all, and you had not used your claimed shot at the time you said all that. Your explanation was that you had no idea of the existence of town protectives, but you thought IV talking about it was antitown and your 1291 and 1298 were not intended to be taken as softs, but to shut him down. The multiple references to being self-resolving were a gambit intended to draw either a kill or a block; and you didn't think your check was important enough to be bad for town if it worked and you did get killed or your one-shot blocked. You say your 2184 was simply a joke. You say I am possible scum who saw that, and decided to leave it alone, not kill you, not block you, but got lucky and was able to push you for it once you claimed a role that was incongruous with those softs.

I posit that you were in fact at least willing to let town believe you were softing protective, which explains your 1291, and 1298, and the references to being self-resolving, but the game state changed in some way that meant that was no longer +scum, and so you changed your intended fake claim.

You are correct in that neither of us can prove either of those circumstances are true, and in effect, it is one word against the other. I say that the balance of probabilities swings heavily in one direction. Others might have a different opinion.

[Ydrasse]

okay i’m sorry but i like can’t . get to where you do on me for perhaps obvious reasons
i don’t know how to convince you on this when the fundamental answer is “this is how i play, my actions are as explained and i think a lot of this is a reach or wanting to string together things to reach the conclusion you want”
i can’t resolve that in a way that will like. make sense to you probably if you’re town so
i’ll read everything else you’ve said and go from there
(small note is that i think it’s... weird that you’re making a case about your own alignment i guess At Me even though i know it’s an effort to explain the presentation pings me a little)

can you give your math case?

[innocentvillager]

The reality is that people don’t really listen to dead townies like ever, maybe maybe if their night kill was super strange, but even then people like to push their own opinions. My point is your townflip doesn’t really provide much benefit to town as you think, we’re not just gonna kill your top scumread

Understood. It's not that I think you sheep me in death, it's that if Herta is a miss, I think I die - and the game is lost - tomorrow.

I think math!scum also knows that, and why his own actions are making my lim less likley, and the wagon he thinks is town more likely.

so why is going you-Herta any different than Herta-you? You might not die tomorrow also?

[innocentvillager]

mmmm
i have been wondering why this game went completely dead on all fronts
there was some votes and then nothing

What does that tell you?

[Datisi]

,