Mini Normal 2289 - Postgame

[Alianna]

1.15

Votecount 1.15

Cephrir (4): PenguinPower, Frogsterking, Alchemist21, furtiveglance
Dionysus (2): Brickwalll, Cat Scratch Fever
T3 (2): Dionysus, Eiralox
Enchant (2): Save The Dragons, Cephrir
Brickwalll (1): Enchant

Not Voting (2): T3, Not_Mafia

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-02-14 13:44:18).

Mod Note: This VC is the same as the last one, but it’s been 5 pages. Or is it 6 pages? It’s been enough pages.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

About Cephrir specifically, how do you think scum!Cephrir would play if Frogsterking was correctly pushing his slot, even for a weird/dumb reason?

I don't know, probably similar to this (kind of just ignoring him for the most part and making passive aggressive digs every now and then)?

To be clear, when I was referring to his "reaction" that seemed genuine and unlikely to come from scum!him, I meant the early "discredit" that got him wagoned in the first place.

[T3]

Eiralox is playing very different to how I remember them play as town

[Eiralox]

Indeed....

[T3]

1. Dionysus - no idea, i'll read his ISO again
4. Alchemist21 - town
5. Enchant - lean scum
6. Frogsterking - town
7. Eiralox - lean scum
8. Save The Dragons - lean scum
9. Cephrir - scum
10. Cat Scratch Fever - null, i haven't read her ISO yet
11. PenguinPower - null/town
12. Brickwalll - lean town
13. furtiveglance - lean town

[T3]

Very well then.

I'm not voting you now, or soon to be frank. I like Dionysus's current vote, not seeing T3 having their head in the game here if I'm frank.

End transmission.


(those are a lot franks!)

Are you familiar with the principle "reads vs reasons" ? That's the gist of my Townread on T3. I also think his read progression on me is believable. I think T3 expected me to be more toxic and bad takes, and he reevaluated when he saw that I was putting in a good effort.

My experience of you has been that your reads are good but you generate a lot of noise that is counterproductive to the game being solved. And then you weren't doing that this game, which made me more receptive to what you were saying.

[Cephrir]

real spicy reads there t3, good to see someone who isn't afraid to buck the consensus

[Cephrir]

4. Alchemist21 - town

why

[T3]

4. Alchemist21 - town

why

I liked his analysis of you and furtive and he seemed to be open to other people's ideas.

[Alchemist21]

4. Alchemist21 - town

why

I liked his analysis of you and furtive and he seemed to be open to other people's ideas.

Furtive? I didn’t have much to say about them and I dropped my scumread of them when they showed me I was wrong.

[PenguinPower]

ugh...i don't think ceph is scum anymore

[T3]

4. Alchemist21 - town

why

I liked his analysis of you and furtive and he seemed to be open to other people's ideas.

Furtive? I didn’t have much to say about them and I dropped my scumread of them when they showed me I was wrong.

Wait no, not your analysis of furtive, your analysis of furtive's analysis of me.

[PenguinPower]

VOTE: enchant

[Frogsterking]

ugh...i don't think ceph is scum anymore

Nah you're good dude. It's self doubt. We're on the right track.

Scum!cephrir will fight hard to avoid being the D1 lim because it completely screws over his team in Mini Normal.

Zoraster linked this in the discussion forums:

http://games-net.de/hosted/tggc/trash/m ... 0&do=Go%21

Town winrate on a mislim D1 is about 30% and Town winrate on a scum lim D1 is about 60% ...in MOUNTAINOUS

So with TPR involved, scum are facing an enormous uphill battle it scum!cephrir gets eliminated. Remember ratcoons are most dangerous when they're backed into a corner

[Enchant]

Idk i think all mafia elims r1 are luck based or helped by mafia

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: enchant

Enchant is Town. I've never seen Enchant scum hunt so much and stay involved with a game before.

[Frogsterking]

Is a bit LAMIST? When I pondered the game last night I realized that I've seen Enchant make posts like this before, but IIRC NM's M.O. is to hardclaim scum.

ughhhh I don't know. I'm kind of thinking to that game I modded & you were in where he just went "I'm mason" without anything to back it up. If I had to guess, I'd say it's probably NAI.

Because he was mason?

I don't see point.

Not surprising, considering both masons died at same night.

I still don't see point of bringing it up

Wise.

You know that NM doing it just to hammer?

Wise.

...you aren't being pinged by NM's activity in the thread?

What do you expect scum!NM to be doing over the last couple pages in a scum!Cephrir, scum!NM world?

I'm feeling comfortable that I'm 3/3 right now. Of course I can be wrong but it's been looking promising.

Probably NM does same thing.

I truly don't understand how my posts generated zero enchant votes nor even a response from enchant

Am I invisible

Well i can troll you further, but you mostly troll yourself already.

All of these posts are sorting IMO. I'd expect you to understand that actually Penguin because (from my point of view) reading Enchant's ISO right now is a lot like how your Town ISO usually looks by now, Penguin, minus the wagoning. If you read between the lines you can see there is some intent to solve and to question what others are saying in a very non-agenda-y way. If you don't read between the lines then it looks like filler and lurking, which was how I interpreted your Town ISO in LOST.

I don't think Cephrir should be given Town credit for trying to redirect an elimination onto Enchant of all players after he failed to do so with Eiralox and furtiveglance lmao.

[Frogsterking]

i thought brickwall's entrance was scummy but the fact he was memeing about it just now improves my opinion

furtive seems more... agreeable? than i'm used to. would anyone who's played with him more than i have care to comment

I haven't moved yet, I got lost in my head for a second. I'll go now.

@

Eiralox

Are you getting any scum!mohab vibes from Dionysus?

This scum!mohab: viewtopic.php?t=89826&user_select%5B%5D=31103

ok i wasnt gonna even try to read this but what a bizarre post lmao

VOTE: eiralox

i think this person got trapped in a joke and doesn't know how to get out of it and start actually playing the game

not very impressed with STD either

@std here's why ive been suspecting you even the dumb stuff

-i still think post 155 is needlessly affiliative and not good and it's strange to me the way you phrased it ("you missed that we mindmelded" just doesn't seem like a correct characterization of the events that occurred to me). perhaps you will remember "needlessly affiliative" as something i look for
-i have nothing to support this but i think you're more fun as town and you haven't really been that fun here
-i think you know that i can get tilted and i would think you would not want to activate that by greeting me with a vote and a reminder of all the reasons i feel ambivalent about mafia

i don't agree with your insistence that i can't derive any meaningful meta from a game in which i was scum. i think you were obviously town in that game. many other players were non-obviously town. this is something scum need to pay attention to to figure out where their mislims are going to come from. it's puzzling to me that you can't see the difference -- you played very differently from this there

also from now: -i dunno why you weren't feeling enchant enough to vote dionysus for no reason if he was playing exactly to your scum-enchant model you've just explained

real spicy reads there t3, good to see someone who isn't afraid to buck the consensus

Wagon shopping. Any wagon who doesn't catch interest Cephrir discards.

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: enchant

Enchant is Town. I've never seen Enchant scum hunt so much and stay involved with a game before.

Whoa

[Frogsterking]

Cephrir simply doubled down on the Enchant push because he found something to sell which Town wanted to buy:

I feel enchant actually plays when theyre town and trolls when they're scum

Why does that sound familiar? I think I have a completed game with someone may have said it then. Let me see if I can find it.

It used to be true, but I don't really think that's true anymore.

I can’t find the game right now anyway so I may be confusing then with Elements or someone else. Still at work and might look again when I’m at home.

Came home and looked again. I don’t have any past games with Enchant.

I truly don't understand how my posts generated zero enchant votes nor even a response from enchant

Am I invisible

I was going to ask why you voted Enchant even though you had games disproving the theory, but after looking at the right-to-wrong ratio figured you were basing it on it being more-likely-than-not rather than a 100% always happens thing.

In that one game where he was Town and you said it took a while for Enchant to start obvTowning, about how long exactly did that take?

Oh right I remember

That was the one where he claimed bodyguard and started interacting mechanics in a town motivated way. It wasn't until he claimed that I started to see it

Ok, and am I correct that you’re going on the basis of “he’s more likely scum than not” or is there another reason you’re not giving Enchant some benefit of the doubt here?

Oh right I remember

That was the one where he claimed bodyguard and started interacting mechanics in a town motivated way. It wasn't until he claimed that I started to see it

Ok, and am I correct that you’re going on the basis of “he’s more likely scum than not” or is there another reason you’re not giving Enchant some benefit of the doubt here?

Correct - if that process gives me an 80% chance of reading enchant correctly for example, that is way better than I can do for any other player right now by normal methods

Ok, fair enough. I don’t think I can ask you anymore meaningful questions about Enchant.

Are there any other players in this game you feel you can read more accurately than random based on your past experiences with them?

Are there any players here you think could read

you

more accurately than random?

You can see Cephrir hooks in alchemist with the Enchant theory (I think likely because alchemist

wanted

there to be someone who could sell him a method of reading Enchant.)

Does anyone actually believe Cephrir would still be pushing Enchant if he hadn't found there were players eager to follow him onto that wagon? I predict that, just like the other 6-7 slots Cephrir shopped for a wagon on, Cephrir would have simply moved on to find another target.

Oh right I remember

That was the one where he claimed bodyguard and started interacting mechanics in a town motivated way. It wasn't until he claimed that I started to see it

Ok, and am I correct that you’re going on the basis of “he’s more likely scum than not” or is there another reason you’re not giving Enchant some benefit of the doubt here?

Correct - if that process gives me an 80% chance of reading enchant correctly for example, that is way better than I can do for any other player right now by normal methods

98.2938722% statistics made up on the spot.

[Cephrir]

asking one question about how to read furtive isn't pushing anything

[Cephrir]

ive also been pushing enchant despite the fact i was getting no traction

[Frogsterking]

I am trying to figure out how to link posts from mafiauniverse lol. I got talked out of a D1 scumread there in a similar way the conversation between alchemist and Cephrir went.

[Frogsterking]

asking one question about how to read furtive isn't pushing anything

Correct, it's wagon shoping to see how willing players are to push there, without actually committing to a read on furtiveglance.

Furtiveglance seems "agreeable" my ass lmao. I think you assumed furtiveglance would be an easy target and you quickly found out otherwise.

[Cephrir]

one post where i don't even express suspicion of brickwall is not wagon shopping

i got off eiralox because he started playing again and didn't gun for me when he easily could have, not because no one cared