Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[furtiveglance]

Completed games it's just you, Elements, Meg, STD (rip in peace)

Saw a bit of 2109 as I said and Weuler is a lot scummier this game.

Yeah, that's what I figured. I realized that you're not being the aggressive hotshot here that I've seen before, but I think that's probably just because there's nobody here you feel the need to boss around like you did with Drew and Gimli in prior games. Elements and I don't seem the sort you'd bother with and obviously you're not going to have any rapport to attempt it with people you don't know.

If I'm solving with the assumption of town!Aureal then Weuler flipping means the following:

1. Weuler flips scum, 1 miselim left
2. Flip Elements, if they flip scum then gg
3. If Elements flips town then 0 miselims left but Human/Furtive interactions in d1 no longer imply a Human/Furtive scumteam in which case flip Black

OR

1. Weuler flips town, 0 miselims left, Black trying to prevent the Weuler elim is no longer scum protecting scum so what exactly stops a tr on Black at that point?

I'm not really clear how 3 works, I gather something to do with the posts around 440? I've got COVID, can you break this down and make it easier for my tired brain to handle?

Sorry for playing badly in that Micro, but in my defence the game was quite inactive and it drove me to do dumb things.

The difference between this game and that Newbie is that my slot isn't under pressure at the moment

[usesPython]

I'm not really clear how 3 works, I gather something to do with the posts around 440? I've got COVID, can you break this down and make it easier for my tired brain to handle?

I don't consider either furtive or Human to be individually scummy, the only way I can consider a scum!Human game with how aimless he was so far is if his scum partner did nothing to help him. Combine this with furtive being the second replacement for that slot and the weird interactions his slot has had with Human in posts like 195 or the weird interactions Human had with his slot in posts like 440 means that the only scum team I can realistically see happening in a scum!Human game is Human/Furtive. If Weuler flips scum though then Human/Furtive is impossible meaning the interactions weren't scum talking weirdly with scum but instead NAI.

If that's the case then Weuler/Elements or Weuler/Black games become a lot better explanations for what's happening than anything else due to both of them wagoning on STD.

Weuler/Human I can't explain Humans aimlessness
Weuler/Furtive I can't explain why Freedom is so against a STD hammer in 885 when STD is E-1 and instead tries to counterwagon on Weuler bringing them to E-2 while also obviously being able to expect STD will bring Weuler to E-1 and risk Human switching back to Weuler

[Black]

I think I disagree that a Human/Weuler team is unlikely. I think Weuler/Elements is

more

likely but the end of D1 really raised my eyebrows and I think this Human/Weuler interaction is noteworthy:

I'm sorry I had no idea if you guys would come to a consensus when I went to sleep probably should've just hammered in the morning but I was tired and now I don't know why I was thinking that

Because we could actually have flipped weuler if I didn't vote change

I see this as two possible reactions:
1) Human is newtown and he just thought a Weuler flip would be better than an StD one
2) Human is a wolf with Weuler and switched his vote to save him

I feel like #1 is more likely. I've been getting newtown vibes from Human all game and this wouldn't really be any different. #2 is still possible though and it felt like Human regretted switching to StD which could be coming from an informed place if he is scum with Weuler

Python, I'm wondering why you don't consider this an option? Is it because the only way you can see wolf!Human is if he is paired with an inactive player that hasn't been able to help him? I would argue that Weuler has been pretty inactive and surface-level this game, as well as being a new player, so the pieces to your Human/furtive puzzle could still fit if we substitute furtive for Weuler

I want to try to comb back over the game and make a post analyzing player interactions. I will try to do that at work today

[usesPython]

Python, I'm wondering why you don't consider this an option?

If Weuler flips scum then I consider the STD counterwagon to be a focused scum attempt to keep Weuler alive. If I look at it from the perspective of no one being conftown (not even myself), there's only three likely scumteams that come from that:

1. Weuler/Elements for Elements actively pushing an STD elim over a Weuler elim and being partially responsible for sheeping Human and also still tr'ing Weuler d2
2. Weuler/Python for me being partially responsible for sheeping Human and making a play that attempts to maximize the chances of a scum being elim'd d2 instead of just voting for who I considered scummiest (Which in a scum!Weuler game would be pretty scummy)
3. Weuler/Black for the tr on Weuler and sr on STD d1 while also making some leaps in logic during your push on STD with posts like 791

Essentially, if I assume a Weuler/Human game then I run into too many problems trying to explain how the counterwagon on STD was successful when neither of them really pushed it all that much

[Black]

Ehh. I'm not seeing the same problems as you, but I'm also not nearly as analytical and thorough as you so I might just be missing something here. I like your 3 possible scumteams but I think Weuler/Human is a decent 4th option. Human helped push the StD counterwagon foward whether we can explain the success of the counterwagon or not

I think the lim order should be Weuler >> Elements >> Human and it's probably just gg before we even get to Human. I'm down to go Weuler >> Elements >> Black too, just as long as everyone agrees to lim Human after me if Elements flips town

[Black]

Also, I think Weuler should probably just claim at this point since it's pretty obvious he's the #1 suspect

[usesPython]

Black I think the most important thing to consider when looking at how likely a Weuler/Human game is is how capable do you think scum!Human is when it comes to realistically bussing Weuler in posts like 762, 768, 770, 782, and 784

I'm down to go Weuler >> Elements >> Black too, just as long as everyone agrees to lim Human after me if Elements flips town

That'd be one miselim too many:

Flip Weuler 1v4 after nightkill
Flip Elements 1v2 after the nightkill

[usesPython]

At this point though I think we're talking in circles about scenarios that probably aren't going to happen. Way I see it is that at this point there's an 80% chance of a Weuler/Elements game, a 10% chance of a Human/Furtive game, a 5% chance of a Weuler/Black game, and then a cumulative 5% chance of every other possible scumteam combined.

I think it's much more practical to just start flipping people and see if any nightkills disprove any solve by the time we get to the harder ELO's

VOTE: Weuler

E-1

[Aureal]

What exactly do you mean by "capable" there? If you mean "would get lots of town credit for helping identify scum" then no, not very. I don't think Human was really in a place where he much needed to bolster town cred though. Seems like he was just struggling with what to do, and I don't know that being scum would change the fact that he would struggle there. If he assumes his partner Weuler is not going to make it through the game, Human probably struggles just as much there as if he's town.

[usesPython]

What exactly do you mean by "capable" there? Seems like he was just struggling with what to do, and I don't know that being scum would change the fact

To me Humans push on Weuler seems like it convincingly comes from town!Human to the point that I'm not entirely convinced scum!Human has the raw ability to emulate that kind of behaviour without even getting into whether it's a good idea for scum!Human to do so

[usesPython]

In a Weuler/Human game he'd have to be coached pretty heavily to make those posts convincing, I'll go check when I wake up if there was any series of posts made by Human when Weuler would have been inactive normally

[Black]

Black I think the most important thing to consider when looking at how likely a Weuler/Human game is is how capable do you think scum!Human is when it comes to realistically bussing Weuler in posts like 762, 768, 770, 782, and 784

These are the types of interactions I wanted to look at when combing through the thread but I just haven't been able to yet. Human jumps on and off the Weuler wagon a lot here. I feel like this could just as easily come from newscum as newtown? But that's if you are just looking at this string of posts in a vacuum. Obviously when we look at Human's game as a whole there are other things that point to newtown

I'm down to go Weuler >> Elements >> Black too, just as long as everyone agrees to lim Human after me if Elements flips town

That'd be one miselim too many:

Flip Weuler 1v4 after nightkill
Flip Elements 1v2 after the nightkill

Whoops. My math wasn't mathing

[Weuler]

An E-1 and the day has barely begun?

[Elements]

claim or I hammer

[Weuler]

I think the arguments about Human's scum capabilities are very odd

[Weuler]

claim or I hammer

I am VT

[Weuler]

I want to point out that we lack information from the Furtive slot. If this day ends prematurely, then our mission tomorrow will be much harder

[Weuler]

If you flip me, then head for Elements next. Preferably after a longer day, where you can try to find his partner.

[furtiveglance]

I want to point out that we lack information from the Furtive slot. If this day ends prematurely, then our mission tomorrow will be much harder

What more information can I give you?

[furtiveglance]

If you flip me, then head for Elements next. Preferably after a longer day, where you can try to find his partner.

Why aren't you voting for Elements? And why are they your main suspect?

[Weuler]

Actually a tip from my last game: Don't look too closely at interactions between elements and other people to instantly rule out pairs. Better to lim the scummiest remainong player. But at that point you will have no room for error

[Weuler]

I want to point out that we lack information from the Furtive slot. If this day ends prematurely, then our mission tomorrow will be much harder

What more information can I give you?

Just general information about your playstyle, how your interactions look etc. Makes it easier to see if any odd change has occured come D3

[Weuler]

If you flip me, then head for Elements next. Preferably after a longer day, where you can try to find his partner.

Why aren't you voting for Elements? And why are they your main suspect?

They were my biggest suspect D1. I am not voting because I didn't anticipate that the day would possibly end so fast, and I still need time to sit down and look at ISO:s. Probably not something I will have time to do today either

[Weuler]

Actually a tip from my last game: Don't look too closely at interactions between elements and other people to instantly rule out pairs. Better to lim the scummiest remainong player. But at that point you will have no room for error

Also don't rush when you have no room for miselims. Seems obvious but that's why we lost the last game I played

[furtiveglance]

What if Elements hammered on the pagetop