Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[Human]

Or furtive for that matter

[furtiveglance]

Firstly, usesPython isn't being rude.

pocketing

The reason I'm not posting loads of analysis is because I don't think it's necessary - I replaced in and found the consensus in a similar place to my own reads, and I want to vote out Weuler. If you want to talk meta, Weuler's towngame in Newbie 2019 is drastically different to this one in content and style.

or perhaps you found the gamestate convenient and favorable to you as scum and so are being lazy to avoid generating too much suspicion.

Regardless, I'll humor you -

how

is Weuler different from that game? You've made that point several times but never elaborated at all.

I think you're the one pocketing usesPython after you came in pushing their exact solve that doesn't include you. If I was scum, I'd just be parroting the consensus rather than pocketing a certain player.

Secondly, here's some posts that Town!Weuler made in Newbie 2109 that he hasn't come close to emulating here:

Spoiler: Town!Weuler

As I am the only town-player that knows for certain that claim 1 above is true, I mention that Consequence 3 given above can also be proven from the following modified claims:

Claim 1': STD is town.

Claim 2': If LLD is scum, then Weuler is not.

Claim 3': If AV is scum, then neither LLD nor Weuler are scum

This is possibly only of interest to STD, as they know whether they are town or not. Obviously I will not write out a motivation as to why Claim 2' or Claim 3' should be true, as they concern me being town. The point is that if you believe all these claims for whatever reason, then consequence 3 is still true.

Let's talk a bit about the people from Consequence 3.

CCG: As I mentioned in 451 I don't like their "passive" posts. As STD wrote in 459, CCG is mostly just posting information about the game instead of analysing.
Arko: Looking back at Space's ISO I don't find it too bad. I don't like Arko's top townreads though.
NK15: I don't have a good read here, but I don't townread NK. Not a lot of analysis done here either. If NK is scum, then a potential scum partner could be STD, as these slots have barely interacted.

Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)

I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.

Also: To anyone who feels like it.

Please criticize

Claim 2 and Claim 3 of 461. If you have reason to believe that one of STD/LLD, STD/AV, AV/LLD could be the scum pair, then please explain why. Consequence 3 hinges on Claim 2 and Claim 3 being true so if I have missed something here, please tell me.

Of course you can also critize Claim 1, but I already know that claim is true, so that's mostly for your own sake.

[usesPython]

I don't understand why either of scum!catboi or scum!Furtive would be trying to pocket me given that my fullsolve means Furtive gets lim'd if Weuler flips town and catboi gets lim'd if Weuler flips scum and I've already stated my intent to keep my vote on Weuler

[furtiveglance]

Have any of you analyzed other newbie games that Weuler played in Meta from one game can be fairly unreliable

I don't know if there are any

[catboi]

I think this is a good statement by Human that got a little overlooked. Catboi responded but didn't really address Human's point. Catboi is kinda dismissive of the Weuler case and seems to think the argument about Weuler from another game isn't much to go on, however he contradicts himself by saying the furtive slot is "very very likely scum" because of how furtive has played in other games.

You really are completely missing the point if you think I didn't address that and that's an extremely level 0 notion of a contradiction.

I don't think the meta argument against Weuler is convincing because the premise is under-developed. The most furtive has said is that Weuler is "more energetic" in his other games, which is incredibly vague.

I think furtive is scum here because his analysis is insubstantial and lacks depth in comparison to how he plays as town in other games.

These are very different arguments. Are you really having trouble understanding why I believe this to be different?

[usesPython]

I don't know if there are any

Newbie 2063 if you're ok with a game from 2021 where they were VT, other than that they've only played in Newbie 2108 (VT) and Newbie 2109 (VT) recently

[furtiveglance]

I don't know if there are any

Newbie 2063 if you're ok with a game from 2021 where they were VT, other than that they've only played in Newbie 2108 (VT) and Newbie 2109 (VT) recently

The more I read the more I agree with myself, Weuler seems like quite a polarised player

[Black]

Catboi knows it's a lot easier to try and make town look scummy than scum look towny, so it's no wonder he talks as little as he can about Weuler.

This is a good point but kinda nullified by Catboi's extensive towncase on Weuler

Part 1 of the towncase (my responses in blue):

catboi why do you townread Weuler?

the early game questioning of human, 119 and 122, feels like a real enough attempt at solving where they're suspicious of the thing human said but are asking for clarity.

Wolves do this too I think. Jumping on the first thing that seems kinda scummy. This feels NAI to me

callout in 136 of black's post as being "look at me i'm so townie" is also fine, i think that's a plausible read to make that can be a sign of actually scumhunting.

Agreed here

I think the progression from 217 to 394 looks like a believable enough re-evaluation, the fact that this happens

after

the pressure on Weuler lowers means it's not being done as a survival tactic.

The vote on Aureal seems a little omgus, and then backing off of it when most of the playerlist townreads Aureal seems opportunistic

I thought the vote on Black in 487 was one scum would be less likely to make, checking context though I can see it was following in response to Python voicin suspicion on Black so it could be scum sheeping a townie there. Not saying that

is

the case but it's possible. Still it feels a logical enough follow-on from 469. The question to Freedom in 488 also feels like there's a town thought process to it - suddenly he suspects Black, saw the previous player in tat slot had townread them, and asks the replacement about it. I think there's probably a train of thought here of thinking there might be a connection between the two players and trying to draw something out with that question. The fact it's not made explicit makes it more likely to be a genuine thought rather than a manufactured one.

I still find this whole progression by Weuler scummy. Sheeping python felt weird and then Weuler never went anywhere with it. He just kinda dropped the sr on me like he did Aureal. I can't remember the timing but I'm pretty sure he stopped being sus of me after python also stopped

The thought on Arko in 490 is also not bad, trying to pattern match behavior in a previous game to this one again feels like someone who is actively thinking about the game.

Agreed here, although I don't think it's abnormal for wolves to do this to appear more townie

The stuff about exploring if STD and Elements could be scum based on scum doing something similar in his last game (531 546 549 552) also seems like someone who is

really thinking

about the game - even while voting elsewhere they're exploring different suspicions, you can see where weuler's thoughts are coming from, all of it is pretty believable to me in that I don't get a sense of it being forced or opportunistic.

I just don't consider "really thinking about the game" as alignment indicative. Do you think all wolves just kinda lolligag through the game without trying to seem townie?

This is why I asked what the case was, because the reasoning presented for suspecting Weuler seems less than stellar.

[catboi]

Firstly, usesPython isn't being rude.

pocketing

The reason I'm not posting loads of analysis is because I don't think it's necessary - I replaced in and found the consensus in a similar place to my own reads, and I want to vote out Weuler. If you want to talk meta, Weuler's towngame in Newbie 2019 is drastically different to this one in content and style.

or perhaps you found the gamestate convenient and favorable to you as scum and so are being lazy to avoid generating too much suspicion.

Regardless, I'll humor you -

how

is Weuler different from that game? You've made that point several times but never elaborated at all.

I think you're the one pocketing usesPython after you came in pushing their exact solve that doesn't include you. If I was scum, I'd just be parroting the consensus rather than pocketing a certain player.

Secondly, here's some posts that Town!Weuler made in Newbie 2109 that he hasn't come close to emulating here:

Spoiler: Town!Weuler

As I am the only town-player that knows for certain that claim 1 above is true, I mention that Consequence 3 given above can also be proven from the following modified claims:

Claim 1': STD is town.

Claim 2': If LLD is scum, then Weuler is not.

Claim 3': If AV is scum, then neither LLD nor Weuler are scum

This is possibly only of interest to STD, as they know whether they are town or not. Obviously I will not write out a motivation as to why Claim 2' or Claim 3' should be true, as they concern me being town. The point is that if you believe all these claims for whatever reason, then consequence 3 is still true.

Let's talk a bit about the people from Consequence 3.

CCG: As I mentioned in 451 I don't like their "passive" posts. As STD wrote in 459, CCG is mostly just posting information about the game instead of analysing.
Arko: Looking back at Space's ISO I don't find it too bad. I don't like Arko's top townreads though.
NK15: I don't have a good read here, but I don't townread NK. Not a lot of analysis done here either. If NK is scum, then a potential scum partner could be STD, as these slots have barely interacted.

Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)

I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.

Also: To anyone who feels like it.

Please criticize

Claim 2 and Claim 3 of 461. If you have reason to believe that one of STD/LLD, STD/AV, AV/LLD could be the scum pair, then please explain why. Consequence 3 hinges on Claim 2 and Claim 3 being true so if I have missed something here, please tell me.

Of course you can also critize Claim 1, but I already know that claim is true, so that's mostly for your own sake.

Okay, that is

something

at least. I think he's made posts this game that sort of reach toward that (931 comes to mind) but not nearly as consistently. His excuse is being busier which could be true or could be scum buying cover. I think possibly in th way he talks about having been dead wrong in his last game the confidence is shaken slightly. His play in that game did get less verbose as time went on. I think on an individual level his play still strikes me as genuinely scumhunting in this game.

[furtiveglance]

Catboi knows it's a lot easier to try and make town look scummy than scum look towny, so it's no wonder he talks as little as he can about Weuler.

This is a good point but kinda nullified by Catboi's extensive towncase on Weuler

What do you think prompted the big case

[usesPython]

I don't think the meta argument against Weuler is convincing because the premise is under-developed. The most furtive has said is that Weuler is "more energetic" in his other games, which is incredibly vague.

I think furtive is scum here because his analysis is insubstantial and lacks depth in comparison to how he plays as town in other games.

These are very different arguments. Are you really having trouble understanding why I believe this to be different?

I'd say the same about the furtive meta read being underdeveloped. Comparing Newbie 2110 with this game and using it to draw conclusions on how town!Furtive would play (and therefore call Furtive scum because of the lower amount of reads per page) incorrectly makes a few assumptions when using it to draw conclusions this game; namely that the amount of content per page is the same (it's not, 2110 was denser which would explain the more reads per page of 2110 compared to this game) and that town!Furtive would make the same amount of reads this game per page as 2110 if the content density of both games was the same (Which maybe, maybe not but you haven't really put forward any arguments on it)

[Black]

I think this is a good statement by Human that got a little overlooked. Catboi responded but didn't really address Human's point. Catboi is kinda dismissive of the Weuler case and seems to think the argument about Weuler from another game isn't much to go on, however he contradicts himself by saying the furtive slot is "very very likely scum" because of how furtive has played in other games.

You really are completely missing the point if you think I didn't address that and that's an extremely level 0 notion of a contradiction.

I don't think the meta argument against Weuler is convincing because the premise is under-developed. The most furtive has said is that Weuler is "more energetic" in his other games, which is incredibly vague.

I think furtive is scum here because his analysis is insubstantial and lacks depth in comparison to how he plays as town in other games.

These are very different arguments. Are you really having trouble understanding why I believe this to be different?

In your opinion do you think furtive has a consistent playstyle as town, or as scum?

[Black]

Catboi knows it's a lot easier to try and make town look scummy than scum look towny, so it's no wonder he talks as little as he can about Weuler.

This is a good point but kinda nullified by Catboi's extensive towncase on Weuler

What do you think prompted the big case

You already know I think it's just Weuler/Catboi here so this comment feels weird and pockety

[catboi]

Newbie 2108 (VT)

This doesn't really seem substantially different at all to this game, imho.

[furtiveglance]

Catboi knows it's a lot easier to try and make town look scummy than scum look towny, so it's no wonder he talks as little as he can about Weuler.

This is a good point but kinda nullified by Catboi's extensive towncase on Weuler

What do you think prompted the big case

You already know I think it's just Weuler/Catboi here so this comment feels weird and pockety

I didn't know that - you aren't voting

[Black]

Catboi knows it's a lot easier to try and make town look scummy than scum look towny, so it's no wonder he talks as little as he can about Weuler.

This is a good point but kinda nullified by Catboi's extensive towncase on Weuler

What do you think prompted the big case

You already know I think it's just Weuler/Catboi here so this comment feels weird and pockety

I didn't know that - you aren't voting

I explained why I wasn't voting. We have 4 days until the deadline, there is no rush

[Black]

Catboi - did you miss my question in #1147 or di you conveniently skip over it?

[usesPython]

Hey if we're gonna be hyperposting we might as well make it easier on the people that'll have to catch up by not quoting 4 layers deep just to respond to the latest post

[Black]

Hey if we're gonna be hyperposting we might as well make it easier on the people that'll have to catch up by not quoting 4 layers deep just to respond to the latest post

What? They don't have to read the quoted part since they should have already read it...

[usesPython]

What? They don't have to read the quoted part since they should have already read it...

Still makes pages unnecessarily long, and overdoing it can cause enough scrollbar to show up that people decide to just skip the hyperposting

[Black]

Ok, my bad. I'll work on that. I think it's just muscle memory to quote people

[catboi]

I think this is a good statement by Human that got a little overlooked. Catboi responded but didn't really address Human's point. Catboi is kinda dismissive of the Weuler case and seems to think the argument about Weuler from another game isn't much to go on, however he contradicts himself by saying the furtive slot is "very very likely scum" because of how furtive has played in other games.

You really are completely missing the point if you think I didn't address that and that's an extremely level 0 notion of a contradiction.

I don't think the meta argument against Weuler is convincing because the premise is under-developed. The most furtive has said is that Weuler is "more energetic" in his other games, which is incredibly vague.

I think furtive is scum here because his analysis is insubstantial and lacks depth in comparison to how he plays as town in other games.

These are very different arguments. Are you really having trouble understanding why I believe this to be different?

In your opinion do you think furtive has a consistent playstyle as town, or as scum?

From what I've seen, like a lot of newer players, he's significantly weaker as scum than as town and doesn't really replicate the solving process he has as town.

Would it matter to you at all if I went on a deep dive to elaborate on my feelings there, or would you be annoyed at me dumping a bunch of extra homework on you? I want to be able to present stuff in a way that's actually parseable/readable to folks. The meta against furtive I thought was pretty self-evident, if folks aren't seeing it I'd deep dive but A) that's a bunch of time spent analyzing games that are not this one and B) is going to be a lot to work through. I'm getting shot down immediately with everything I present so I'm questioning if people are literally that locked in that nothing I say matters or what.

[usesPython]

Ok, my bad. I'll work on that. I think it's just muscle memory to quote people

You can still quote people, it's just a good idea to clean it up so only the relevant part of the quote is there

Newbie 2108 (VT)

This doesn't really seem substantially different at all to this game, imho.

I disagree (wow I really need a new phrase to use). Even in their first game back after two years they're posting a lot more analysis compared to this game

[Black]

I think this is a good statement by Human that got a little overlooked. Catboi responded but didn't really address Human's point. Catboi is kinda dismissive of the Weuler case and seems to think the argument about Weuler from another game isn't much to go on, however he contradicts himself by saying the furtive slot is "very very likely scum" because of how furtive has played in other games.

You really are completely missing the point if you think I didn't address that and that's an extremely level 0 notion of a contradiction.

I don't think the meta argument against Weuler is convincing because the premise is under-developed. The most furtive has said is that Weuler is "more energetic" in his other games, which is incredibly vague.

I think furtive is scum here because his analysis is insubstantial and lacks depth in comparison to how he plays as town in other games.

These are very different arguments. Are you really having trouble understanding why I believe this to be different?

In your opinion do you think furtive has a consistent playstyle as town, or as scum?

From what I've seen, like a lot of newer players, he's significantly weaker as scum than as town and doesn't really replicate the solving process he has as town.

Would it matter to you at all if I went on a deep dive to elaborate on my feelings there, or would you be annoyed at me dumping a bunch of extra homework on you? I want to be able to present stuff in a way that's actually parseable/readable to folks. The meta against furtive I thought was pretty self-evident, if folks aren't seeing it I'd deep dive but A) that's a bunch of time spent analyzing games that are not this one and B) is going to be a lot to work through. I'm getting shot down immediately with everything I present so I'm questioning if people are literally that locked in that nothing I say matters or what.

I hope you don't consider what I'm doing as "shooting you down". I just want to pick at some of the things you've said that I find interesting. And yes I personally won't mind if you elaborate your feelings here. If it is a lot of "homework" I can't promise I can get to it or read over it in a timely manner but I will try my best. I think you should play how you want and not really worry about what other people think of it

I would still like an answer for my question in #1147 if you don't mind. What did you find scummy about HS and Freedom?

[catboi]

Catboi - did you miss my question in #1147 or di you conveniently skip over it?

didn't answer because I wanted to address the middle part, but I'll get to it. Sorry for the ambiguity, I'm just being given

a lot

to argue with right now.

I'm not going to be able to give a meta analysis on furtive. I do have an opinion here but the only game we've played together is ongoing so I can't really share. Can you elaborate on why you think HS/freedom were scummy?

Human sequencer gave very little in the way of meaningful reads or analysis. The statement on python in 188 is wishy-washy. The townread on Black in 189 is vague and lacks actual substance - what does having to play solidly to fake interactions mean? what is he referring to? we don't know. That type of read in my opinion is a lot more likely to come from scum when they see a player who is being relatively active - it's much easier to simply give the free townpass. What it lacks is the component of being

investigative

. Townies are paranoid, they're suspicious, they search for hidden meaning and intention in people's posts. Even if they come away with a townread it's usually because they're thought hard about it.

The interaction with human is also pretty bizarre:

Spoiler:

nm.

@Human What's the deal with your reads multipost as soon as you were suspected pretty much? Did you think it was over and you were gonna get lynched? It feels like you really jumped to conclusions, which could read as guilty conscience/knowing your attackers are right so not bothering to defend.

Fair but if I was scum then why would I give people ground for suspicions when I was dead

I think this guy is super town.

Based on my “reads” they could try to draw conclusions on who else was scum

I think he's really far away from scum mindset. He can't even place himself in the situation he was before, assume he was scum, and theorize what he would have beent thinking properly. He can only see the game from the perspective of him being town and when he tries to imagine the game from scum PoV what he says just doesn't make sense.

HS gives the lightest of suspicion toward Human by accusing him of a guilty conscience, and after a single "why would I do this as scum" post, he leaps to the conclusion of human being "super town" for reasons that hardly make sense. The defense human used is a pretty typical fallback for scum so the idea it's impossible to come from a scum PoV doesn't really hold water and it's not clear why HS concludes that.

Then there's this:

**Vote: Weuler**
3 on Weuler, L-2, but be careful I might have miscounted.
In my current understanding of the game, I think Euler, Elements and Aureal are the most likely to flip scum. I want to run any of them up to see what content we get.

VOTE: aureal
Do you actually believe what you're writing?

These are HS's only votes/FoSes. and there's no explanation or reasoning to any of them. Notably the Weuler vote is a bandwagon vote with absolutely no explanation that I think looks like a very convenient vote for scum to make.