Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[catboi]

If I'm

worried

I don't offer to 1v1 you. (Which still stands, btw - are you the one who's too scared to accept?) I have nothing to hide because I know my flip will vindicate me, and I would let the town eliminate me with its remaining ML to prove that, but I do not want to be the game-losing elimination.

[furtiveglance]

Actually screw it I think I need to make the meta case because it's pretty apparent you're just openwolfing in my face but the only actual way I can point this out is via side by side comparison

But why are you so worried? Let's say in the world in which I'm scum and Weuler is town. As soon as Weuler flips, I'll look bad, right? So you'll be able to eliminate me tomorrow.

1. I'd rather kill the obvious scum today and use that momentum the next day
2. I've seen town do silly things before and when it only takes one wrong vote to lose anything can happen
3. you're not going to lay down and accept death tomorrow and we both know that, if weuler flips town you come in and claim I had TMI and was posturing around the flip

Time to lay my cards on the table. I haven't been this confident on a flip for a very long time. Weuler is Mafia. If I'm wrong on that, town probably will lose. Obviously there might be another PR alive (another reason to vote Weuler out now that he's claimed), and there are other things to consider, so I won't self-vote or anything if I'm wrong, but I'm aware if I'm wrong we probably do lose.

[catboi]

You're that confident because...?

[furtiveglance]

If I'm

worried

I don't offer to 1v1 you. (Which still stands, btw - are you the one who's too scared to accept?) I have nothing to hide because I know my flip will vindicate me, and I would let the town eliminate me with its remaining ML to prove that, but I do not want to be the game-losing elimination.

I think this is just grandstanding, and I'm going to use my posts today to talk to other players.

[catboi]

why are you so confident weuler is scum? If you're that confident it shouldn't be hard to lay out your case, right?

[furtiveglance]

I explained a few times and even quoted posts from previous games.

Aureal, what are your current reads?

[usesPython]

2. I've seen town do silly things before and when it only takes one wrong vote to lose anything can happen

Right well since it's looking like general consensus is that Human/Furtive and catboi/Weuler are the top scumteams for pretty much everyone the solution seems obvious.

Aureal, Black, Human, Furtive; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Human/Furtive today and they flip town that we consider catboi/Weuler as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?

Aureal, Black, catboi, Weuler; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Weuler/catboi today and they flip town that we consider Human/Furtive as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?

[furtiveglance]

Why are me/Human now equivalent with Weuler/Catboi? Are you reading the thread?

[Black]

I explained a few times and even quoted posts from previous games.

Aureal, what are your current reads?

I just looked at your iso and you haven't really made a Weuler case at all? You've said it over and over again that he's scummy but the only evidence you're giving is his meta from another game and the fact that he's linked with Elements/Cat

If you are this confident in the read could you point out specific scummy things from Weuler this game?

[catboi]

I explained a few times and even quoted posts from previous games.

Aureal, what are your current reads?

I find your explanation to be sorely lacking and while I've grasped the meta point I'm not solidly convince this is the case.


listen - I am

considering

a world where I am wrong on you, but I need you to

actually explain your thoughts

. I know you're capable of this and it really shouldn't be that hard if you're town to write a few sentences explaining why you have that read or reference some posts from this game.

Like, I

really

do not think this is an unreasonable ask?

[Black]

2. I've seen town do silly things before and when it only takes one wrong vote to lose anything can happen

Right well since it's looking like general consensus is that Human/Furtive and catboi/Weuler are the top scumteams for pretty much everyone the solution seems obvious.

Aureal, Black, Human, Furtive; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Human/Furtive today and they flip town that we consider catboi/Weuler as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?

Aureal, Black, catboi, Weuler; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Weuler/catboi today and they flip town that we consider Human/Furtive as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?

Why am I scumreading this?

[catboi]

2. I've seen town do silly things before and when it only takes one wrong vote to lose anything can happen

Right well since it's looking like general consensus is that Human/Furtive and catboi/Weuler are the top scumteams for pretty much everyone the solution seems obvious.

Aureal, Black, Human, Furtive; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Human/Furtive today and they flip town that we consider catboi/Weuler as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?

Aureal, Black, catboi, Weuler; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Weuler/catboi today and they flip town that we consider Human/Furtive as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?

Why am I scumreading this?

probably because casually lining up an elim path seems scummy

again though I really really really doubt it actually comes from scum

[furtiveglance]

I explained a few times and even quoted posts from previous games.

Aureal, what are your current reads?

I just looked at your iso and you haven't really made a Weuler case at all? You've said it over and over again that he's scummy but the only evidence you're giving is his meta from another game and the fact that he's linked with Elements/Cat

If you are this confident in the read could you point out specific scummy things from Weuler this game?

Everyone else (including previously Aureal) is doing so much more than Weuler. I can tell which players (for the most part) really want to solve and which don't.

[catboi]

ftr while I think I might have doubted it earlier, I'm seeing some ~weirdness~ in how human/weuler talk about each other that is maybe possibly partnered - I think I lost the particular cotnext in ISO but Human flipping to STD from Weuler near the Day 1 deadline feels rather notable

[Black]

I don't think planning out the eliminations is the best idea. We can just do this logically without some pact. I'm ok with either Weuler or furtive/Human today but I would like to hear more from Weuler and Human before we do anything

[furtiveglance]

Can no one else see that Weuler's contribution is so much weaker than 1) his towngame in 2109 and 2) everyone else alive in this game?

[catboi]

Look there was a massive wagon earlier on weuler but it halted because we wanted time to talk now we have talked do we have any better reads now? I don't think so

If today is a miselim, who do you think being miselimed would maximize the chances of town winning?

I'm going to have to think and reread but StD is not our best bet

What StD is doing is certainly weird but I still think Weuler is a better bet

Well I'm about to go to sleep and something needs to be done someone can hammer this if they want to
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: StD

mmmmmmmmmmmm

[furtiveglance]

catboi are you coming round?

[catboi]

Can no one else see that Weuler's contribution is so much weaker than 1) his towngame in 2109 and 2) everyone else alive in this game?

The thin about this is that I feel like he's a relatively frequent mis-elim but you might be right regardless


UNVOTE:

[furtiveglance]

I might be

[catboi]

catboi are you coming round?

yeah, maybe

Like I said I think trying to take the game in too fast was a mistake

+ weuler's response to me coming in and defending him gave me the heebie jeebies

[furtiveglance]

yes, it was sus

[catboi]

I don't really like Human's panicking before the lim yesterday. They have been solidly sitting on my townlist for some time, but that might need to change. I made the mistake of strongly townreading scum in my last game

also I guess looking at this now it's very awkward - it's gesturing toward suspecting human rather than actually re-evaluating him or anything and like, shrug, I could see it as distancing

[usesPython]

Right now my current solve is pretty much the same as before but with a minor difference because the original didn't really care much beyond Weuler/catboi and Human/furtive scumteams:

1) Flip Weuler
2ai) If Weuler flips scum, flip catboi
2aii) If catboi flips town, flip Human
2b) If Weuler flips town, flip a Human/furtive scumteam

Reason I'd rather not flip Human or furtive first is twofold:

1. Human/furtive is the only non-Weuler scumteam I have so testing that first is optimal
2. catboi is self-admittedly a really good scum player. Given that the vibe of the thread went from town patting themselves on the back going "gg we caught Weuler/Elements" to a wall warzone where suddenly Human/furtive and Human/Weuler are viable pairs it's twigging my scum radar. I think catboi is a good enough scum player that I'd rather trust the reads I developed before they replaced in instead of risking getting sheeped, at least until those reads are proven wrong

[catboi]

Okay I'm done messing up the kitchen but I'll wait for people to check in and say if they're okay with moving the day forward