Open 875 - The Kindgom of Zeal: The Queens Chosen - GAME OVER

[Radical Rat]

I'm here, sorry about the delay, was hoping this game would fire either sooner or later than it did.

25 pages already, damn, which of you is the scum hyperposting?

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Enchant

I am random OMGUSing

[Radical Rat]

it seems as if korina has done some more randomly scummy shit than rr has done randomly scummy shit so I randomly put my vote on korina

randomly

To be fair, I have like. Barely played. I also haven't read yet and don't plan to for my own sanity, so what's the deal with Korina?

[Radical Rat]

I don't like eliminating people who aren't here

[Radical Rat]

If nothing else, the slot deserves the opportunity to claim and/or give final reads should the replacement make any

[Radical Rat]

It's just a thing about the spirit of playing a game together for me. I won't eliminate empty slots unless there's a near certainty of guilt. In that case, I'm okay not putting a replacement through the trouble, but generally I just don't like the idea of going after a slot that isn't capable of defending itself.

You might have that near certainty, but I do not.

[Radical Rat]

but also, we've already had two so I'm not super stressed about it

People claimed already? Who?

[Radical Rat]

but also, we've already had two so I'm not super stressed about it

People claimed already? Who?

ranger and furtive. both claimed N1, furtive claimed cop.

@Ranger and furtive

When you get here, please explain why you thought this was a good idea

[Radical Rat]

Fair enough, though this seems to happen an awful lot to you

[Radical Rat]

Did you or Ranger claim first?

[Radical Rat]

Me in top tier on page 1? Now I really am malding

By a technicality. I didn't have any real townreads. The top tier was weak townleans.

This is gonna be frustrating for you. I'm sorry in advance.

Confused, actually.

Pretty sure role flips in setup but not night of acting if I remember correctly so will say I act N1. (I should double-check that but full disclosure; I actually forgot this was an open. Thanks to how flavored it was I thought it was a theme. xD)

VOTE: Ranger

I don't see LLD opening this way as scum but it's not worth the effort of debating my alignment with her.

{Lady Lambdadelta}
{Save The Dragons, Gimli, furtiveglance, Cephrir}
{Ethel}
{Sail}
{Korina, (Detective Penguin, Radical Rat, Umlaut)}
{redFF}
(Now it is the second-to-top tier which is weak townleans.)

Okay I simply just do not believe this.

Game's just started, and you decide it's just not worth arguing with LLD so you're gonna give up and die? Maybe if you had a late game ability and you didn't think you'd live long enough to use it, but you're claiming N1? And have apparently zero interest in surviving at least long enough to use it? Not to mention how premature the claim is.

VOTE: Ranger

[Radical Rat]

The major sticking point for me is the self-vote. A premature claim in response to an inflated perception of a threat is one thing. Choosing not to engage with LLD on it is one thing.

As a PR that's guaranteed a chance to act tonight if she lives through the day, actively making it easier for her to get eliminated is quite another. And then to just leave her vote parked there the whole time instead of even trying to vote for scumreads is just incomprehensible to me.

As Town with a PR, ESPECIALLY when we know it's either a Cop or a Doc, her priority should be using it. I don't believe Ranger seriously thinks her sitting around waiting to die is actually helpful for anyone, and I definitely don't believe she thinks self-voting is going to do her any favors as Town.

[Radical Rat]

The thing that makes me question now whether Ranger's post comes from mafia is just that it's such a

weird

response to one vote and sticks out badly in a way Ranger should know better than to do. I find it hard to believe scum!Ranger sounds the alarms and goes into flail mode the first time she gets voted.

I think it's a WIFOM AtE. She knows it doesn't make sense to do, and is hoping doing it anyway makes her look like frustrated Town

[Radical Rat]

StD's right, and I'd had the same thought myself. I do think hitting scum should take priority over being mechanically safe, but I would move for another strong scum candidate.

Honestly kinda not liking Cephrir's reactions here

[Radical Rat]

What made the situation different for you with furtive?

[Radical Rat]

You're the fucking worst Ranger.

Literally no one is trying to kill you today anymore. You're living in a fantasy world of persecution of your own creation.

I am. Kind of. I'm at least strongly considering it as an option enough to not unvote.

[Radical Rat]

@Ranger, not quoting because mobile and it's a pain, but

You have either an N1 Cop or a Doctor. Furtive is already claimed N1 Cop.

This means that there is a 100% guarantee of getting a cop result tomorrow if you both live today, and are both telling the truth.

I recognize that you didn't know this when you initially started trying to get yourself killed, but you do now. If you believe furtive, and you already know you're Town, you need to be alive. If you don't believe furtive, you should be voting for him instead of yourself.

I get that you don't want to fight LLD, so don't. Ignore her entirely if you must. But to take your ball and go home because of an early scumread on the literal second page of the game... if you're not scum, it's at the very least incredibly selfish and anti-Town behavior.

[Radical Rat]

What about the fact that LLD actually moved her vote away from you? Clearly she's willing to go elsewhere and not just blindly tunnel you into oblivion, so your argument that the game can't progress while you're alive just doesn't make sense

[Radical Rat]

The only way any of this play makes sense is if you're scum trying to pull reverse psychology shit.

[Radical Rat]

If you're Town, this is literally the worst possible thing you could be doing.

[Radical Rat]

Literally no one is trying to kill you today anymore.

I count as someone.
I don't want to deal with you pushing me every day phase.

It's my preference to die today because even if you're pushing elsewhere--your read on me remains. You're scumreading me. You want me dead. You can choose to not pursue me today. You still want to pursue me eventually. D2. D3. Until I die.

Easier to remove the distraction D1 than have it in the game until I die later.

I would just like everyone to read this post, bearing in mind Ranger has claimed to have an N1 action. She apparently has no interest in using her action whatsoever, which I find to be completely unbelievable if such an action actually exists.

[Radical Rat]

I like the idea of redFF elim, Ranger protects me.

I like that idea too. Too bad Ranger doesn't actually have an ability, and even if she did with you as one of her stronger scumreads I don't trust her to use a doc on you.

Fortunately there's potential for other, realer Doctors to exist

[Radical Rat]

I'm not being disingenuous. If your ability were real, you would want to eliminated D2, not D1. You saying D1 is better is just for you to justify not really playing the game.

[Radical Rat]

Say you flip a coin 4 times and it flips tails 4 times, what are the chances the next flip is heads?

Its 50%

That's true of any individual, but not so of groups. While we can't know WHO is lying, because for every individual the odds are equal, for every person who claims to have an ability on a given night, the likelihood that at least one is lying goes up.

Right now we have two N1 claims. The odds of either, individually, being true are 20%. But the odds of both being true simultaneously are only 4%, because you would need a second event with 20% probability following from the first. A third claim would reduce this to a less than 1% chance that all three are telling the truth.

In your coin flip example, the odds of the next flip being heads are 50%, but the odds that you initially flipped four heads in a row are about 6.25%.

Having said that, it's still not really helpful because regardless of whether you're Town or Scum, the correct claim is that you act on the next night. As Scum, it's the easiest argument to keep you alive, and as Town, you want to make scum's nightkill decision harder AND be kept alive.

This setup does not incentivize truth

[Radical Rat]

the odds of furtive or ranger's claim being true equals to the odds of them being town, which is about 75% for each. the odds of them both acting on n1 equals to the odds of them both being town, which is ugh 56%? of course that and not 4% lol if it was 4% we'd have nothing left to discuss

No it doesn't. Town isn't guaranteed to tell the truth. And in this setup Town is actively incentivized to NOT tell the truth.

Though my 4% number is actually wrong because I forgot to take into account that you have to be Town to get a night number in the first place, so. It's actually not a straight 20% chance an individual acts on a given night, it's less than that but I'm too lazy to do the actual math.

[Radical Rat]

Yes.

[Radical Rat]

N1 is the correct thing to claim today, as either Town or Scum. Tomorrow the correct claim for anyone except a Cop with a result is going to be N2.

[Radical Rat]

N1 is the correct thing to claim today, as either Town or Scum.

if furtive comes here tomorrow with a 'hey guise so I'm actually a n2 cop' he'll be hanged for it

so idk how that's correct play

Because if you don't act N1, you want to draw the heat away from people who do. Ideally ideally, we just wouldn't have any claims at all, because they mean nothing in this setup. But if you're going to claim, the correct claim is to act the next night.

You may wish not to risk being killed before your ability can be used if you act on a later night, but claiming truthfully is actually more dangerous because then scum is likely to have less potential targets to choose from.

By claiming to act the next night, regardless of reality, you remove scum's ability to accurately select targets.

You do also remove a Doctor's ability to accurately select targets, but it cannot be assumed that a Doctor who matches your assigned night exists, where it's guaranteed that scum will exist.

[Radical Rat]

I really think you all should listen to what Radical Rat is saying about Ranger. I would reiterate it but they've already put it as well as it can be put. Nothing about her play today is pro-town.

nothing about it says "scum motivation" either whilst there are other players who play does and we're ignoring them soooooo....

Has Ranger been eliminated yet? Is her claim one of the major reasons she hasn't?

There's your scum motivation

[Radical Rat]

N1 is the correct thing to claim today, as either Town or Scum. Tomorrow the correct claim for anyone except a Cop with a result is going to be N2.

i dont agree with this. town players should tell the truth

Normally, yes. In this particular setup, no.

[Radical Rat]

I have not. I don't need to have personal experience to look at the unique traits of this setup and make decisions about strategy though.

[Radical Rat]

Have YOU played this setup before? Have you played it both with and without implementing my ideas enough times to acquire a statistically significant sample size?

If not, why does your opinion matter more than mine?

I'll accept arguments against my strategy being optimal if you have any, but to throw out logical thought entirely just because I haven't personally played this setup before is... really silly.

[Radical Rat]

And I do recognize that this argument would potentially apply to Ranger as well, but that's not consistent with the self-vote, which is the main issue here.

It's not just that I don't believe she acts N1, it's that I don't believe she has an ability at all, because if we take her words at face value, she is actively opposed to being able to do anything with her ability.

Had she just claimed N1, but otherwise attempted to play the game, I wouldn't be on her. Instead she's putting on a show to make her look like frustrated Town, but in a way that doesn't line up with how Town should be approaching this game.

[Radical Rat]

You have said, repeatedly, that you want to be the elimination today. Your vote is in service of getting yourself eliminated, and has been the entire game.

Your readslists mean nothing if you won't back them up with your actions. Your claim means nothing if your play directly contradicts it.

If I turn out to be wrong on you, I promise to go back and consider your reads. Until then, I have no reason to believe anything you say, so I don't really care about them.

[Radical Rat]

You have said, repeatedly, that you want to be the elimination today. Your vote is in service of getting yourself eliminated, and has been the entire game.

It's almost like there's

two

tools of a town, not one.

My voice serves me plenty.

My play is also more than readslists. I've given full explanations for reads as well. You happen to be refusing engagement on any of my reads and their reasons.

I posit the reason why is because it's convenient for you to push your narrative of me not trying and it's convenient for you to not engage me on my reads.

If I self-voted page 2, and said throughout the day that it would be better to eliminate me than any of my actual scumreads, would you be taking me seriously?

[Radical Rat]

there's no way town!RR comes here with broken ass math arguments and 'you're hiding behind a n1 claim so you don't have to play' wacky statements idt

My math was in response to other people making bad statistics arguments

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: RedFF

Until we meet again in the morrow...

[Radical Rat]

I'd rather furtive live, personally

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: RedFF

Until we meet again in the morrow...

reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

I'm sorry, but the opportunity was there and it was really funny

[Radical Rat]

I know you're new and all but is this really all you've got to say about the game state?

I'll keep my thoughts to myself until I think they're worth sharing. I don't have any information that's not publicly available, and I don't think any speculations from me would currently be helpful.

Your speculations are always helpful. Even if you don't have anything new to say, making your thoughts known is helpful for others to read you, and the way people respond to you may help you develop better reads on them.

[Radical Rat]

Curious that neither Ranger nor furtive were killed...

[Radical Rat]

Curious that neither Ranger nor furtive were killed...

Curious indeed. The kill suggests it was someone not believing my claim, since if scum believed my claim, they

should

have killed one of {furtiveglance, Ranger, Enchant} (to avoid double invest results).

I've a prime suspect:

VOTE: Radical Rat

Or it could have just been you. Didn't want to chance wasting the kill on a protected target

[Radical Rat]

I want people to play as usual for a bit first. Just to see what happens!

Can we get a multiple choice?

[Radical Rat]

I think furtive's right here, at least in the abstract sense it's better we get some kind of information out of the day along the way, but also with my brain knowing we have a guilty it's difficult to really think of anything else.

That's why I suggested multiple choice. We can still argue and develop reads about it, but it doesn't feel as pointless as it would with a generic guilty hanging over our heads

[Radical Rat]

Where I'm at is that if I were scum, and the decision were up to me, I would have shot Ranger.

While I did not (and do not) believe her claim, I don't think anyone else did either. So any active Doctors would have been on furtive. At that point killing Ranger on the off-chance she was genuinely claiming, and also because she's a prime cop target for furtive would have been my suggestion.

That didn't happen, so either Ranger's scum herself, or scum was confident in both her lying, and that furtive would target someone else. Which would lightly implicate furtive, but in that case I would have expected an inno not a guilty, and he felt Town enough to me yesterday, so unless the guilty comes up fake he's probably fine either way.

[Radical Rat]

Beyond Ranger... I have no idea tbh. Cephrir seemed a bit strange, but that's contingent on Ranger being Town, which I don't expect to be the case, so idk.

Possibly LLD and yesterday was weird theater? But I don't really think that's how it felt.

I did get a sense Umlaut might have been attempting to pocket me, but again that's contingent on Ranger being Town, since I don't think a setup full of cops is one you really want to be bussing in.

[Radical Rat]

May I ask why you chose Cephrir?

[Radical Rat]

I think killing furtive is correct actually. Basically what LLD said, but also like. If we must be wrong on one of them, furtive is essentially VT now, right? Cephrir, assuming he's Town telling the truth, could potentially use that Doctor shot still.

If furtive is Town, we eliminate Cephrir tomorrow. If he's scum, and Cephrir is Town, scum basically has to kill him tonight in the absence of any further claims. If an N2 Doc exists, this gives us a pretty decent chance to block the kill, and we'll have an advantage knowing a Doc is alive and active for N3.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: furtiveglance

Another consideration is that I don't think checking Cephrir made sense. I think given the way things ended last night, Ranger would have been the best option to check, though that may be personal bias.

But also the quotes Cephrir shared do seem to negate the stated reasoning of not being able to read him.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: furtiveglance

Ranger would have been the best option to check

daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn

I mean she's been incredibly polarizing and has expressed the position that the game won't progress healthily without her being resolved.

A cop check is an opportunity to resolve her without spending a day eliminating her, so that's what I'd have done.

[Radical Rat]

btw furtive I agree with you this is way outside of what I think of RR's town game

Haven't we just played the one game together? Unless you count Weird Dreams, but I barely even got a chance to play that one at all.

[Radical Rat]

I would just like to point out that I expressed skepticism BEFORE LLD said her piece. At that point I was already considering the idea, though I hadn't fully spelled it out yet.

[Radical Rat]

How does that do more harm?

[Radical Rat]

I think you're wrong about me. Social reads definitely play a large part, but I do favor logical analysis/mech where it's available. Not that you have any real reason to believe me right now, and I'm much too lazy to dig up games, but for future reference you're just wrong here.

[Radical Rat]

I do understand your intention with the claim, but I think by claiming a target especially you messed it up. As a Town Cop, you'd have no reason to claim your target ahead of time, if scum buys your claim they can easily just kill the target, and your check is wasted without a huge fear of running into a Doctor, who's far more likely to be on the Cop than the target. So you clearly weren't really a Cop, or you'd have been giving that more thought, and I'd actually be more skeptical of the people who DID believe you if you're Town. Making the naive assumption that knowing you're Town means knowing you weren't lying is a mistake scum is likely to make.

The fact that neither you nor furtive were killed though is very peculiar in either world where you're Town though. If scum believed you, they should have killed within you, furtive, or Enchant, and if they didn't they should have probably killed you anyway as the most likely for furtive to check and the least likely to be protected.

[Radical Rat]

I did say that if we're going to be wrong on one of furtive/Cephrir, it's better to be wrong on the one whose ability is already spent.

That doesn't override if you just think Cephrir is super scummy, it's of course better to hit scum in any circumstances, but for someone who's indecisive, furtive is the "correct" choice in a vacuum.

The point I was trying to make isn't that Cephrir's claim is so valuable we can't possibly risk losing it, and I'm also not really sure why that's being attributed to LLD.

[Radical Rat]

i know what you should do with it

I think the mechanical play is to flip you though

I dont think 'cephrir is acting townie' would be a good justification

but anyway I'll think it over I guess

Why is flipping Cephrir the "mechanical play?"

[Radical Rat]

Trusting the accuser isn't mechanical. Nor is it powerful enough to override individual reads

[Radical Rat]

sorry about the social justice language part but if I have to hear one of you call a cop check "the accuser" like it's a sexual assault claim #MeToo one more time I'm going to scream.

I mean it is literally someone accusing another person. That's just... what the word means?

I understand your frustration with how assault and such are frequently trivialized, but I don't think this is a good example of that?

[Radical Rat]

I don't see why furtive's partner(s) would be undecided?

Voting a guilty result is a perfectly reasonable course of action that would be silly to call someone scum for, so I don't see why they'd be hesitant to jump on that. Unless it's somehow furtive/Ceph, but.... that's a very silly world.

[Radical Rat]

I don't see why furtive's partner(s) would be undecided?

Voting a guilty result is a perfectly reasonable course of action that would be silly to call someone scum for, so I don't see why they'd be hesitant to jump on that. Unless it's somehow furtive/Ceph, but.... that's a very silly world.

Yeah, so do you think the team is me, Gimli and Enchant? Otherwise, what is your claimed worldview?

• I'm scum
  
• My partners are either voting with me or hesitant, which you just said they aren't.

At least put a bit of effort in rather than coming up with some garbage like this just to try and show a thought process.

You're right. I haven't been putting as much thought into complete solves as I should have been. Even on an individual basis, my reads just aren't as strong as they usually are by this point in a game. Probably a symptom of me not being here for the start, but in any case, I should be attempting a more holistic approach here.

Ranger is my strongest scumread. Even that isn't as confident as I was on her yesterday, but she's the only one existing outside of "lean" territory right now.

For you, I don't think your stated motivations quite line up, and I think that you're the correct elimination from a purely mechanical point of view... but I don't think Ranger's behavior toward you makes sense if you're both scum. And I don't think the kill makes sense if you're both Town. So I'll either owe her an apology or a tunnel based on your flip, I guess.

Cephrir I have weird vibes on from D1, but the behavior that struck me as odd was his attitude toward the claims, where it felt like he just really wanted to get one of you eliminated, but that also only works if Ranger's Town, and today I think he's been talking a lot of sense. It's also very unlikely he's scum with you, so I don't know who would be viable partners?

Umlaut has been agreeing with and praising me a lot, and it makes me uneasy, but that again comes down to whether Ranger is Town, since I don't think bussing is something worth doing when the game's full of cops.

Kawaii and Ethel need to do more, but I can't form reads on what isn't there. Gut leans Town on both though.

Gimli I think has been deliberately misrepresentative and reductive, and I don't trust him as such. But also I felt the same way about him in Mutiny, and was very wrong most of the game because of it, so I'm trying to keep an open mind for now.

Enchant... I think I lean scum? It doesn't seem like he's being genuine, but it does still feel very on-brand for him.

StD I'm fairly comfortable with being Town. Nothing I've seen from him so far has raised any alarms.

LLD is probably Town as well. Whether you agree with her or not, it very much reads to me like she's genuinely attempting to solve the game, and I don't think she'd be so easily frustrated if she already knew she was lying.


So from there, the only viable full solve IS you/Gimli/Enchant... which requires me to townread Ranger, which I'm not really comfortable doing... but it would also be extremely silly to vote outside the 1v1 today, and at the moment you look worse than Cephrir to me, a viable solve exists even if I'm not quite satisfied with it, and eliminating you has mechanical backing.


Sorry for the wall with no real progression. When I started thinking about this, I thought I might actually have changed my mind, but... I didn't.

[Radical Rat]

Really, I think a rap battle is the only fair way to resolve 1v1s

[Radical Rat]

As I said before, if we're to assume the worst case scenario and flip whichever of you is Town, you don't have an ability anymore, Cephrir (allegedly) does. Therefore, in the absence of other factors, you're the better elimination. That other factors are also pushing me towards you and not Cephrir cements my decision to vote you.

And I am again genuinely confused by the assertion that I'm "hiding behind LLD." I expressed suspicion first, and while I did agree with most of her logic after it was shared, I've also consistently had my own take on the situation, it doesn't make sense that I'm just coasting off her

[Radical Rat]

As I said before, if we're to assume the worst case scenario and flip whichever of you is Town, you don't have an ability anymore, Cephrir (allegedly) does. Therefore, in the absence of other factors, you're the better elimination. That other factors are also pushing me towards you and not Cephrir cements my decision to vote you.

And I am again genuinely confused by the assertion that I'm "hiding behind LLD." I expressed suspicion first, and while I did agree with most of her logic after it was shared, I've also consistently had my own take on the situation, it doesn't make sense that I'm just coasting off her

Why assume worst case? Just aim for the best case which is being correct.

I am also doing that. There's a reason I am frequently using the words "also" and "and" when discussing this. I think you're the scummier of the two, AND even if I happen to be wrong, you're the better one to be wrong on.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: KawaiiKame again just so I'm not no-voting while letting the day play out

What's the difference here? I think all of us are mostly in agreement that one of Cephrir/furtiveglance needs to die today. So what makes voting someone else who isn't likely to be the elimination substantively different from no voting?

[Radical Rat]

RR is town.

Ethel can be scum.

Kawaii can be scum only if Ranger is town though. If Ranger scum kawaii town.

STD scum.

Ceph dies before lylo.

Enchant prolly town.

Uhh

Why is RR town? They should have known better than to vote me.

Contrary to popular belief, I am not perfect

[Radical Rat]

Wait is dude okay for you RR? I knkw you use they them so i dont wanna do a bad lol

Yeah, I'm fine with gendered terms that aren't just explicitly man/woman/boy/girl.

And I know he's trolling, but I don't know which direction. It's a very silly point to make either way

[Radical Rat]

I have no checks.

Cephrir has to die today of course, and hopefully we'll have something to corroborate Umlaut before tomorrow.

[Radical Rat]

something to consider: scum umlaut would fake a green on scum ranger and take this game to f5 and win. with 4 dead investigates, the possibility is open for a reality in which all the cops are dead. if that is the case, then mafia can fake a check and take it to endgame.

of course we could have 5 or 6 invests instead, in which case mafia would definitely not do that, cause it can be countered by a real check claim with one of them scum.

I'm a n3 doc. if we have an invest and its a n3 invest, then you can out and we can coordinate.

I didn't realize scum knew the setup until I read this post and went back to check.

I tend to agree with Enchant we should just launch Ceph today without too much discussion, but could wait for n3 cop claim if there is one. Even if you're scum it's not as if you can kill them tonight after that claim.

Why couldn't he?

[Radical Rat]

Why couldn't he?

and be outed mafia?

Yeah alright. I was only considering the technical possibility of the kill, not the next day consequences.

In that case, you're right, guaranteeing the result is best. I'm an N3 Cop. Me expressing a desire for one to corroborate Umlaut's result was me softing for the reveal tomorrow.

[Radical Rat]

I still want Kawaii to check in before we end the day.

We're at maximum possible Cop saturation, so if they have anything to claim it's guaranteed scum between them and Umlaut

[Radical Rat]

And having said that, if there's another Cop who doesn't have results right now, wait to claim so until tomorrow. We still have a day before we could act on the claim anyway, so survival takes precedence.

[Radical Rat]

Shoulda voted earlier I guess, I wanted to be included B(

[Radical Rat]

Alright so. I lied, I'm not a Cop, but I had a good reason to.

I didn't know if we had more cops left or not, but I knew scum did know. So I thought an easy way to find out if there were enough Cops in the setup was to see if scum would believe there was another one. So I alluded to checking Ranger/Umlaut hoping scum would kill there and confirm something.

I wanted to keep it at that rather than claim outright, but when Gimli claimed trying to find a Cop to protect, I figured there PROBABLY wasn't another one I was stealing the protection from, which was a huge mistake on my part, but I was afraid that if I didn't fullclaim my fake Cop then, scum would do it instead, and it made more sense to have protection on Town than Scum, even if I wasn't really a Cop.

And I did learn from this actually. Scum did NOT believe my claim, because if they did, either Umlaut or Ranger would be dead. This means there are five Cops, not six, and Umlaut is lying.

VOTE: Umlaut

My actual role is N4 Doctor, pinky promise.

[Radical Rat]

It's also theoretically possible that scum DID believe me, because knowing Umlaut isn't a cop would have made me the fifth claim, but also that Ranger/Umlaut are scum together, and so could not have been the kill that way.

Either way, Umlaut at least is definitely scum

[Radical Rat]

I'll save you the trouble and say no, unless it's some old game from years ago I've forgotten about

[Radical Rat]

jesus christ man

so like if we coordinated this well enough we could have enchant alive on d5 with a check if he was a n4 which would've been huge

instead you did this thing and yeah you're right if you're town scum did not believe you but also they've POE'd down enchant exactly as the last cop???? I have to figure out why that would happen

RR have you softed anywhere that you were actually lying and scum could tell because of that?

Well, I did talk D1 about how we ALL should have been lying. But I think the circumstances around my claim kinda negate that? Like, my argument was getting scum to shoot incorrectly, not getting Doctors to heal incorrectly.

Also if they even thought it was a possibility, I think the risk would have outweighed their doubt. Me checking Umlaut, if Umlaut is Town, creates a chain that clears both Umlaut and Ranger if I'm real and believed. That's three nearly confirmed Townies, and basically auto-win. And if I'm not believed and eliminated, Umlaut and Ranger get fully confirmed instead of nearly confirmed, which is still a very favorable trade. So killing one of the 'confirmed' slots becomes basically mandatory, even if they aren't 100% sure on me.

I'm not really convinced they figured out Enchant either way, though it does greatly concern me that LLD hasn't been shot yet, despite being a universal townread up to this point.

[Radical Rat]

Althooooooough

[Radical Rat]

Well now.
By my count that’s five dead investigators with two living ones, in a setup with a maximum of six.

If anyone else wants to claim investigator, it'll mean both {RR, Umlaut} are scum.

We don’t really need to wait for RR to claim a result, they know the setup, they know the math, so we already know that regardless of alignment they're going to claim a guilty.

The real question isn't Umlaut's alignment (RR will say scum regardless), but rather Radical Rat's.

This might be TMI?
Why would I claim a guilty as either alignment?

As scum, bussing MIGHT be worth it with all the cops dead, sure, but not a guarantee, and as Town? You wouldn't know ahead of time whether my result was on you or Umlaut, so... what's up there?

[Radical Rat]

Where is everyone else?

[Radical Rat]

If I'm going to be in a 1v1 with Umlaut, why do I not just claim a guilty? If we're scum together it doesn't matter which of us lives, but doing it that way gives the survivor credibility in a way that doesn't happen with me admitting to faking

[Radical Rat]

And if it's just me as scum, I have way better odds at convincing people to flip a guilty result on an impossible claim than a "Sorry I lied" on a still technically possible claim

[Radical Rat]

We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.

redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel

And now Enchant

[Radical Rat]

I believe that's hammer

[Radical Rat]

We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.

redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel

And now Enchant

Correct, but Enchant wasn't dead when the scum made their nightkill.

And you're insinuating Umlaut isn't town.

With the setup confirmed to be either 5:5 or 6:4 and the scum knowing which it is and with Enchant

not being flipped last night

, then there is no missing cop with your alleged cop claim.

If Umlaut is a real cop, then the setup would be 6:4, and with 4 dead cops, Umlaut + RR would make 6.
If Umlaut is scum, then the setup would be 5:5, and with 4 dead cops, +RR would make 5.

Which means

regardless of Umlaut's alignment

, the scum

would not doubt your claim

--unless of course you're scum so they already know your claim to be fake.

If Umlaut is Town, with four cops already flipped... 4 dead + 2 claimed = 6, which is impossible in a 5 cop game, but possible in a 6 cop game.

Therefore if scum believes me it's confirmed a 6 cop game, and if they don't it's highly likely a 5 cop game.

[Radical Rat]

Yeah, I think I'm hammered.

Please don't discount the possibility that it really is as simple as just {RR, Kame}. It would explain the claim retraction if RR absolutely needs to try and argue themselves town to win.

If we're TvT we probably just lose tbh

[Radical Rat]

I will accept the yelling

[Radical Rat]

Ranger, you're just wrong here.

Scum can believe me if Umlaut is scum, but if Umlaut is Town they can ONLY believe me in a six cop game because four plus one equals five. And six is greater than five.

You're right that if Enchant claimed instead the math would be the same, but wrong that scum would believe everything regardless

[Radical Rat]

Unless they believed me and thought Umlaut was lying I guess? But I can't imagine they'd believe the cop with results over the cop without any

[Radical Rat]

If Umlaut's Town, Kawaii's definitely on the team

[Radical Rat]

Yes. And scum knows AHEAD OF TIME how many cops there are.

So if there are six claims and they know there's only five in the game, BEFORE anything happens with Enchant... what does that mean?

[Radical Rat]

I guess it doesn't matter at this point.

Either Umlaut's flip will prove me right, or I'll look very silly for trying to predict what scum would do

[Radical Rat]

I really don't want tomorrow to just be arguing over elementary school math, so please just. Look at it again over the night without confbias

[Radical Rat]

Okay, I apologize, I see what you're saying now.

Umlaut + Enchant still makes sense, so if Umlaut is Town a five cop game is impossible, and if Umlaut is scum, a five cop game IS possible but Umlaut wouldn't count toward the limit.

I'm sorry I got heated over that, I was hung up on the raw numbers and didn't consider the implications different scenarios had.

[Radical Rat]

Which means there's a very real probability I was just incredibly wrong on the whole thing. Fuck.

[Radical Rat]

I'd have preferred you not say that because now I have to play double WIFOM with scum

[Radical Rat]

Well I was very wrong yesterday, and I apologize for that. Clearly I hadn't thought things through as much as I should have before attempting such a play.

In any case, I protected Ranger, because despite her protests, I wasn't ever NOT going to heal the only truly conftown slot in the game, and I'd hoped her threatening me into protecting LLD would convince scum I wouldn't be healing her. Seems either I was right, or they holstered for WIFOM.

In any case, I think at this point it has to be KawaiiKame. Hammer yesterday felt really opportunistic, and them being the only one to just take my shenanigans at face value doesn't sit well with me.

Beyond that, I'd say probably LLD is my guess. Significantly less confident there though.

[Radical Rat]

if we have a n5 doctor we have a chance of not being in elo

massclaim bad imo?

Yes, massclaim bad.

We already have fullclaim from everyone but Kawaii and StD, and even then we know they're both going to claim Doctor.

Barring any really convincing arguments, I'm going to be voting Kawaii regardless, but for StD I'd rather scum not know whether they have to worry about a heal tonight.

[Radical Rat]

I wasn't at E-1. I assume if I were, they would have done the same thing to me.

[Radical Rat]

But it was their first post all day, no questions, no original opinions, no follow-up, just a straight "I believe you" and hammer.

[Radical Rat]

Best case scenario there is just a no kill again, which after a no lim puts us in exactly the same spot... except without a potential safety net.

[Radical Rat]

not killing is much stronger play and one I would absolutely 100% go for if I'm playing from RR's position if I'm scum here

scum doesn't need to flip an unclear, they're playing elo either way

if someone else died I'd absolutely think RR was mafia

If the play that you think I would do DIDN'T happen, you'd think it was me?

[Radical Rat]

Honestly I don't think scum holstered. I would have at least TRIED to kill Ranger, with her threatening me being a pretty good excuse not to have protected her. You don't really want conftown in ELo if it can be helped.

End result's the same either way though, and I'm not really looking forward to the inevitable 1v1 with LLD tomorrow, but that's tomorrow's problem.

In the meantime, if Kawaii doesn't show up by prod time, I'm just gonna vote

[Radical Rat]

Well I feel a lot better about LLD being scum now at least.

[Radical Rat]

Look, I don't know you beyond a passing familiarity from other threads. I don't have a way to gauge what is and isn't "scum you" or "town you" specifically.

However, in a general sense, what you're doing right now looks a lot like rolefishing with the massclaim thing, and refusal to give reads to just sheep Ranger blindly is attempting to absolve yourself of responsibility if things go wrong. And those are things I believe are more likely to come from scum.

I get that people have been treating you poorly a lot this game, but me scumreading you for refusing to give reads and fishing for claims unnecessarily is just that.

[Radical Rat]

We know that unless Kawaii/StD are both scum, one is a Doctor, yes.

What we don't know, and what scum doesn't know, is whether they've already used their shot, or if it's used tonight, or tomorrow night.

If we force a claim, and one of them is Town and says anything other than N5 Doctor, scum now know it's safe to shoot Ranger tonight.

If they DON'T claim, scum is forced to consider the possibility of Ranger being healed and choose between making a sub-optimal kill or risk us breaking out of ELo.

I would rather scum have to make that choice.

[Radical Rat]

No.

Ranger is IC right now, yes. That does not mean she is infallible.

We should vote correctly today, whether Ranger agrees or doesn't. Her being confirmed makes her an incredibly valuable touchstone as a known good-faith source, and lowers the pool of elimination candidates increasing our odds of getting it right... but she is NOT an absolute authority that must be sheeped at all costs.

And as Town, you really shouldn't be advocating we follow her to your own death if she suggests it, seeing as we're in ELo and all...

[Radical Rat]

Well, technically MeLo, but you get the idea

[Radical Rat]

Yeah, I'm not going to vote a townread and lose the game just because an IC says so. And I DEFINITELY won't be voting for myself.

It's true we need to vote unanimously to eliminate scum, but to that end we should be attempting to reach a conclusion Together, not swearing fealty to Ranger.

If Ranger makes a vote that I think is more likely scum than not? Yeah, I'll vote with her.

If she votes me, I'll do everything I can to change her mind.

If she votes Gimli or StD, I'll hear her arguments, and evaluate them against my own views, and either change my mind or attempt to change hers.

I will Not just roll over and let one player dictate the game.

[Radical Rat]

As of right now, there are two scum left.

If they take the "Ranger has final say!" approach and sheep her on a Townie, that automatically puts the wagon at E-1. If it is indeed on a Townie, it is my job as Town to make sure that hammer doesn't happen.

Ideally that means convincing Ranger and the other remaining Town the vote is wrong, but if Ranger won't budge I'll settle for a no lim over a mislim. And other Townies should too.

And I'm aware that goes both ways. In which case it's just trusting everyone to make the right call. But it needs to be an active decision, not passively going with whatever someone else says.

[Radical Rat]

do you think i envy having to have Ranger be in control of this?

do you think i'm arguing this for my own fucking health?

there's a right way to play this and wrong way to play this as town.

and while certainly you don't have to follow me down the road of "idgaf", if you're town you DO have to vote united and you DO have to follow me down the road of "Ranger's vote is what we follow".

So if you're town here RR, my advice to you is to convince ranger of it. I don't need to know, I don't need to find you.

Ranger has to find you.

You're right. The purpose of this argument isn't for you to find me. It's to expose how what you profess to be objectively correct play is exactly what scum wants from us.

[Radical Rat]

Have you read today yet Kawaii?

[Radical Rat]

Do you have any specific questions?

[Radical Rat]

Solve is LLD/Kawaii, I'm like 90% sure of it at this point.

The only other maybe possible solve is StD/Kawaii but I really don't think they're scum together here, and LLD has been pushing what to my eyes looks like very scum motivated ideas here.

Ranger brought up the point that if we eliminate in StD/Kawaii we risk hitting an N5 Doc that could save us from ELo, and I do agree with that coming from the perspective of someone with me in the potential scum pool, so I'll abide by it.

And I'm rather tired of waiting around doing nothing so.

VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

Let's get moving. One way or another.

[Radical Rat]

LLD: "Town need to work together, and follow whatever Ranger says!"

Me: "I have two really confident scumreads, I'll pick the one that should be optimal from the rest of the Town's perspective, following Ranger's argument."

LLD: "No that's scumclaiming!"

[Radical Rat]

Kawaii would be MY preference today, yes. But when I'm as confident as I am on both of you, it's splitting hairs and I'm aware of the position I'm in.

If people want to vote Kawaii instead, let's do it, but I don't anticipate being able to get all four of us on it when there's a cogent argument we shouldn't for everyone except me.

[Radical Rat]

And if I had voted for Kawaii, against Ranger's recommendation of avoiding the potential Doctors, you'd be saying going against Ranger's wishes is a scumclaim, as you already did earlier.

From my perspective, Kawaii's 99.9% scum, yes. But looking at it from a perspective beyond my own, which is necessary for getting Town to vote with me, the risk of hitting a Doctor is very real, because my existence as a potential partner wrinkles things further for everyone but me.

So voting for you, who has no such concerns, and is nearly equal in the strength of the read, is totally fine to me.

[Radical Rat]

It's because I have no argument other than PoE based on knowing I'm Town. No one else knows I can't be in the scum pool but me.

Potential scum, mechanically, are StD, Gimli, LLD, Kawaii

Gimli can be pretty safely removed from that pool because he's been pretty transparently Townie and I think we all agree there.

So that leaves StD, LLD, and Kawaii.

If I'm wrong about LLD, it has to be StD/Kawaii
If I'm wrong about Kawaii, it has to be StD/LLD
StD/LLD I just don't see happening. StD/Kawaii is also very unlikely, but it COULD be the case, so I included it as my secondary solve.

To Ranger and Gimli... That pool is LLD/Me/StD/Kawaii.
My existence adds several more possible solves that don't include Kawaii. I have no argument against those aside from "trust me guys." Tomorrow, with only one scum left, mitigating risk is no longer a concern, but today it's a reasonable stance that I recognize will factor into the decision making of 2/3 of the people I need to convince. So I'm approaching it from that perspective.

[Radical Rat]

It would be one thing if I were more split between LLD/Kawaii and StD/Kawaii, but when I overwhelmingly favor one over the other... it just isn't the gotcha you think it is

[Radical Rat]

Regardless of how any of this goes though, I probably won't be playing Opens again for a while...

[Radical Rat]

I did answer it, literally in the initial post where I voted I said the same thing with fewer words

[Radical Rat]

I'm still not advocating for doing whatever you say. I'm recognizing that it is true I need to convince you if we're going to eliminate scum, so picking the scumread that's more likely for us to agree on is just... the best way to get something actually done?

If you were pushing Gimli or something, I'd be fighting you on it. But LLD is a very strong scumread, and you've already expressed a preference for her over either Kawaii/StD, so what should I do here? Just park on Kawaii because LLD isn't the absolute most ideal vote, and force us into a no lim?

[Radical Rat]

Like lets say Ranger comes in and says. "I want to do STD today and votes there."

Are you going to vote against Ranger and force a no elim or worse let scum win?

I will not vote StD today, barring extenuating circumstances. This is different because I actually townread StD as opposed to picking the most agreeable of my two very strong scumreads.

[Radical Rat]

How does me saying I won't vote for StD imply I won't also be trying to convince other people not to?

[Radical Rat]

Because that hasn't happened yet???

[Radical Rat]

Because if she isn't currently scumreading StD what am I supposed to say? Make up possible arguments that haven't been made yet to counter them?

[Radical Rat]

Actually that's a really good catch I didn't notice because I was caught up arguing with LLD.

Maybe it is just StD/Kawaii damn.

UNVOTE:

I'm gonna come back later when I'm not as pissy

[Radical Rat]

That's correct, but unless you think Gimli's scum or LLD and I are partners, from your perspective Kawaii should be impossible.

[Radical Rat]

I don't actually know whether that's a scumslip or a not paying attention slip, but it has definitely thrown my worldview into question

[Radical Rat]

It's mostly the whole D3 thing of asking for cops to heal for me. While I believe it wasn't a great idea because of the potential for scum to take advantage of it...

It locks scum!Gimli out of being able to kill the cop, meaning if there were an actual N3 Cop, they would have been guaranteed to get a result out, which is just all kinds of bad for scum, and I don't think he would do that.

[Radical Rat]

While I believe it wasn't a great idea because of the potential for scum to take advantage of it...

Of course, in hindsight it doesn't look good because you fake claimed cop and ruined my action. And I guess I made the POE for last cop smaller. We had a very small chance of still having a living cop at that point anyway...

Is this all you're clearing me for? I suppose I could be gambitting as mafia there.

It's not ALL, but it's the tipping point. Since then you've seemed genuinely thoughtful as well, and also you'd have no reason to defend me here as scum. Game more than likely just ends if you mislim me, so why stick your neck out?

So yeah, you're Town.

[Radical Rat]

I kind of believe StD here too, tbh. He definitely SHOULD have noticed that, but... I've not noticed more important things before, and he'd been struggling to keep up for a while...

[Radical Rat]

We do need to start making a decision here.

I don't quite feel comfortable with StD yet, in spite of everything. But I will do either of LLD or Kawaii. Leaning toward Kawaii because if StD IS scum, that's the only partner that works for me.

[Radical Rat]

I have no checks.
Cephrir has to die today of course, and hopefully we'll have something to corroborate Umlaut before tomorrow.

This does read to me as Radical Rat softing investigative.

no checks

It feels suspect for these two, and these two specifically, to be the ones stating "no checks".

Oh so it's all 6.

Notably, this makes me feel Radical Rat's claimed play is damning regardless of whether it was genuine or not.

If Radical Rat was genuine in making a mechanical error, then Enchant's last post fits with Radical Rat's mistaken worldview, as spewing Enchant as a cop. If Radical Rat made a math error, then Enchant saying "oh it's 6 cops" would be taken as a cop claim by a scumteam with Radical Rat...when Enchant was referring to having four flipped cops and Umlaut/RR being claimed.

If Radical Rat was lying about making a mechanical error, then it is lying about a mechanical error.

I feel the reason for Radical Rat being scum changes, yet RR remains +scum regardless.

Enchant said that AFTER I claimed to be the 6th cop. If anything that would suggest he wasn't one, since he didn't express any doubt toward myself or Umlaut.

And to your earlier point about me favoring mech for solving and being wrong about something... yeah, I can be wrong sometimes. Quite frequently even. If I were lying about being wrong, why would I bother pretending to be convinced afterwards? And if I did decide to pretend to be convinced, why fight you so hard on it first?

[Radical Rat]

I think you should re-read LLD today specifically. Trying to incite a no lim after fishing for Doc claims is sketchy as hell, and the main reason I've turned around on my LLD read today. Her supporting blind faith in you is also not great. And look at Kawaii's interaction around my shenanigans yesterday. They're the only one who didn't express any skepticism toward it, and just hopped on to quickhammer with no real commentary, and it's the only thing they did all day.

LLD has done a really good job of looking Town until today, but now that we're in MeLo, she's shown her hand in trying to force a favorable outcome for scum.

I know I've fucked up a lot this game. A lot of the blame for the current gamestate is squarely mine, and I know that. But I'm still Town, and eliminating me now loses the game. Please, please reconsider

[Radical Rat]

There are two scum alive with four votes to eliminate.
This means scum need to convince two Townies to mislim someone.
By advocating we all just do whatever Ranger says, scum then only has to convince one Townie. That's favorable for scum.

But also your take earlier about massclaim, and no limming if we get two N5 claims. All that does is guarantee scum don't have to worry about the last Doctor anymore. Which is favorable for scum.

[Radical Rat]

That votecount isn't correct, I unvoted earlier

[Radical Rat]

Actually that's a really good catch I didn't notice because I was caught up arguing with LLD.

Maybe it is just StD/Kawaii damn.

UNVOTE:

I'm gonna come back later when I'm not as pissy

Here

[Radical Rat]

GG.

I know I kinda dug my own grave here, but even so I was hoping...

I was apparently wrong about LLD though, so I guess it probably would have ended like this no matter how today went

[Radical Rat]

In addition to my poor performance, I do want to apologize for my attitude during portions of this game. In particular I was incredibly condescending to Ranger end of D4 because of my own shortsightedness, and that wasn't okay. I'm sorry.

And for LLD today I was being kind of an ass because I assumed you were scum and was taking your frustration as AtE. Normally I'm better about separating that out, but. I wasn't this time. I'm sorry.

[Radical Rat]

It was Gimli/Kawaii wasn't it?

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: radical rat

Or maybe I wont

[Radical Rat]

Probably should've caught on with the whole "scum must have known Enchant was Cop!" thing. Ah well, well played. I don't think there was a world you lost this, even if we had gotten Kawaii today

[Radical Rat]

Oh it would have been even more of an impossible situation to save myself in that case

[Radical Rat]

Balance-wise, I think the biggest issue with the setup is that until late game there's no real way to properly handle claims.

The only potential for a counterclaim before we reach 5/6 claims of the same role is if two cops disagree on a result, or one guilties the other, but due to the nature of everyone being one shot on a specific day, and scum knowing the ratios ahead of time, it's not likely to really happen that way.

I think a strat that could work reasonably well is just a D1 massclaim? Locking scum into claims early so they can't adjust based on flips, and eliminating within whichever role has too many claims to boost odds of hitting scum would probably go better than what happened here.

I've already talked about how badly I messed up here, so I guess on the positive side... I'm glad I didn't end up flipping my townread on StD. So I get to claim I was right on at least one person