Demon Slayer - Kimetsu no Yaiba (Game over)

[Ranger]

{Enchant}
{furtiveglance, GuyInFreezer, Firebringer}
{BlueSnakelet}
{Black}

VOTE: Black

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{furtiveglance}
{Enchant, Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{Firebringer, Klickwork}
{hebichan, GuyInFreezer}
{BlueSnakelet}
{Black}

p2

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance}
{Enchant, Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{Firebringer, Klickwork}
{hebichan}
{BlueSnakelet}
{Black}

p3

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance}
{Pink Ball}
{Enchant, Doctor Drew}
{Firebringer, Klickwork}
{hebichan}
{BlueSnakelet}
{Black}

p4

[Ranger]

is this one of those games where i flip ur reads upside down and its very accurate

You're thinking of someone else pretty sure.

Why is icedragon so high for you?

Vibes.

IceDragon memed with Ranger reads.

That'd be part of the vibes, yes. :P

'Twould be quite bold to Ranger Reads in a game with Ranger as scum. Icedragon is trying too hard to be town, but my read is town doing so instead of scum.

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance}
{Pink Ball, Firebringer}
{Enchant, Doctor Drew}
{Klickwork}
{BlueSnakelet}
{hebichan}
{Black}

[Ranger]

everything else is like dart throwing and she put me in townie.

Well you're right about the dart throwing, but actually, nobody is town until furtiveglance in that readslist; nobody a scumread until BlueSnakelet. Even those tiers are weakly so.

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance, Firebringer}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{Enchant}
{Klickwork}
{BlueSnakelet}
{hebichan}
{Black}

[Ranger]

Why BlueSnakelet?

Bad vibes from his opening; it felt "off".
It had an early presence feeling like forced towniness.

though I though question black being so low. Ranger, what's the reasoning for that?

Similar bad vibes from her opening. Her content felt off.

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance, Firebringer}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{Enchant}
{Klickwork}
{hebichan}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

(Side-note, I'm badly feverish rn so I probably can't think too much. Surface-level thoughts I can probably handle. In-depth analysis will need to wait until I've recovered.)

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance, Firebringer}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, Enchant}
{imaginality, Klickwork}
{Flavor Leaf}
{Kokichi Oma}
{GrandpaMo}
{hebichan}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

p7

[Ranger]

Locktowning Mo. Sue me.

Does lockscumming Mo count?

:P

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance, Firebringer}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, Enchant}
{imaginality, Klickwork}
{Flavor Leaf}
{Kokichi Oma}
{hebichan}
{GrandpaMo}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

(Mo is not actually lockscum fwiw, none of my reads are strong.)

[Ranger]

knowing it says "bloody" there has to be atleast 2 kp in the game.

I'll say there's one less than there otherwise would've been. I had the choice between an every-other-night gated killing role (could only kill one of human/demon, couldn't be used consecutively), and the role I actually took. Much as I love vigs, the restrictions were such I opted for the other choice.

[Ranger]

I sometimes don't remember my mafia teammates in current game duh

Winning strategy tbh. Best method to win is to misremember your scumbuddies, leave interactions with all slots based off the incorrect memories, be genuinely surprised at your actual team, and exploit the interactions not being scum-scum. Works every time. ;)

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance, Firebringer}
{Enchant}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{imaginality, Klickwork}
{Flavor Leaf}
{Kokichi Oma}
{hebichan, GrandpaMo}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

[Ranger]

If i was offered vig, i choose it almost ceirtanly.

I wanted to, but the double gate discouraged me. :(
With only one gate on the power I'd have selected it in a heartbeat, but two meant it was too unreliable. Alas.

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer}
{furtiveglance, Firebringer}
{Enchant}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{KawaiiKame}
{imaginality, Klickwork}
{GrandpaMo}
{Flavor Leaf}
{Kokichi Oma}
{hebichan}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

p11

VOTE: BlueSnakelet

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer, Firebringer}
{furtiveglance}
{Enchant}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, KawaiiKame}
{imaginality, Klickwork, GrandpaMo}
{Kokichi Oma}
{Flavor Leaf}
{hebichan}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

p12

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer, Firebringer}
{furtiveglance}
{Enchant}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, KawaiiKame}
{imaginality, Klickwork, GrandpaMo}
{Kokichi Oma}
{hebichan}
{Flavor Leaf}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

p14
(ngl I actually feel I have some players too high rn since aside from Blue/Black none of the southern reads are scum to me rn.

Firebringer:

Now would actually be a time to unironically dismantle my readslist and point out the town names too low and the scum names too high.)

[Ranger]

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer, Firebringer}
{GrandpaMo}
{furtiveglance}
{KawaiiKame}
{Enchant}
{imaginality, Klickwork}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{Kokichi Oma, hebichan}
{Flavor Leaf}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

p15
(first attempt at course-corrected reads, still aren't great)

[Ranger]

Ranger are you towning me for openwolfing?

Not really. Just vibes tbh.

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer, Firebringer}
{GrandpaMo}
{furtiveglance}
{KawaiiKame, Enchant}
{Klickwork}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, imaginality}
{Kokichi Oma, hebichan}
{Flavor Leaf}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

[Ranger]

ngl i dont like ur reads at all . they just seem what everyone is saying or just gave no basis

Everyone should stop copying me, then, since I came up with those reads first. :P

im the one who called out bluesnake, townread ice

I did so prior to you, so you'd be the one sheeping me.

I've since reconsidered the scumread on you, as your posting's improved considerably every page.

I know you didn't ask me but I think grandpa is too low and imaginality is too high

Weirdly, I agree.

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer, Firebringer, GrandpaMo}
{furtiveglance}
{KawaiiKame, Enchant}
{hebichan}
{Klickwork}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{imaginality}
{Kokichi Oma}
{Flavor Leaf}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

[Ranger]

ok now answer this what made u change from p14 to p15. go explain all changes rn . if ur town u should easily do this

Can do.

Spoiler: 14 readslist (changes)

{furtiveglance}
{Enchant}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, KawaiiKame}
{imaginality, Klickwork, GrandpaMo}
{Kokichi Oma}
{hebichan}

Spoiler: 15 readslist (changes)

{GrandpaMo}
{furtiveglance}
{KawaiiKame}
{Enchant}
{imaginality, Klickwork}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew}
{Kokichi Oma, hebichan}

You went up because your posting has improved every page, including on 15. The neighborhood claim was what sealed the change.

Enchant, Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, imaginality, and Klickwork all moved down as attempted reads correction. I have too many players too high in my readslists, and demoting them was appropriate, as those were the reads I felt most unsure on keeping high. (Combination of stale + giving too much credit, mostly.)
KawaiiKame remained identical.
hebichan moved up slightly to be more town at the time. (she has since moved up even more)

[Ranger]

I don't know if they interacted before but I don't think they have?

IceDragon is publicly an alt of DragonEater70. We interacted in Weird Dreams Mafia, where the scum thought it apt to execute me D1. (I had reasonably good reads, but the execute was unrelated to my reads and was to hide a scumslip.)

[Ranger]

well shit u right but there is no way u actually got that too early.

Getting reads from nothing is something of a specialty of mine. :P

That others think they were accurate is the strange thing tbh.

{IceDragon70}
{GuyInFreezer, Firebringer, GrandpaMo}
{furtiveglance}
{KawaiiKame, Enchant}
{hebichan}
{Kokichi Oma, Flavor Leaf}
{Pink Ball, Doctor Drew, Klickwork}
{imaginality}
{BlueSnakelet, Black}

This is probably more accurate, although the Kokichi/PB tiers can easily swap. Still too many town tbh, but this feels better.

[Ranger]

My read still stands that I feel like they're playing to you as an audience.

I'm aware of how blatantly they are playing to me.

That's part of the townread.

I don't think scum goes out of their way to blatantly play to a single town player.

Yes, IceDragon is blatantly playing to me as an audience. So blatantly, I see it. I'm not townreading IceDragon because he's playing to me; I'm townreading IceDragon because I don't think scum goes out of their way to play to a single town player.

[Ranger]

10 new pages to read, tomorrow when I'm less tired I'll review. I did see we're wagoning though.
VOTE: imaginality

[Ranger]

Hello,

I have a soft-guilty on BlueSnakelet.

VOTE: BlueSnakelet

I can claim the details if need be.

[Ranger]

Why did you target BlueSnakelet instead of someone else? Plain curiosity

Because I wanted to get mileage out of my role. :P

The soft-guilty indicates I did.

[Ranger]

'Soft-guilty' is a bit like...hmm
Underwhelming compared to a real guilty

Well it'll make sense when I claim it. :P

I want BlueSnakelet to fullclaim first tho.

[Ranger]

Why did you target BlueSnakelet instead of someone else? Plain curiosity

Because I wanted to get mileage out of my role. :P

The soft-guilty indicates I did.

Can you soft-clear someone with your role? That would've been more useful than soft-guilting obvscum

Best wait for my fullclaim for that info. ;)

[Ranger]

Don't want to speculate too much about that, but if there's a flipped player that shows that playerlist's order is important, maybe there's a kind of restriction there for the nightkills?

I kinda want massclaim of demon/humanness

I'm a human. Furtive is mostly likely a human, assuming no interference with my action.

You may recall I'm claiming a soft-guilty on you.

You need to fullclaim. Pronto.

[Ranger]

I've strong reason to suspect my soft-guilty is in fact a hard-guilty at this point.

VERY strong reason.

[Ranger]

I've strong reason to suspect my soft-guilty is in fact a hard-guilty at this point.

VERY strong reason.

do share with the rest of us

Oh I want to.

I also don't want to give Blue any out tho.

[Ranger]

V/LA until the weekend for my birthday.

hebi

birthday. <3

[Ranger]

dont
i think i know what ur tryna do

You really don't.

[Ranger]

I have a 2-cost breathing technique. I can target a player with it. If they are a demon, they die...
And that's about it.

Okay so BlueSnakelet was

almost

town from this but there's one problem:

Black/Empathice wasn't a demon.

I redirected BlueSnakelet to Black/Empathice last night.

Per their claim, they shouldn't have been able to kill Black/Empathice.

With this knowledge, if I redirected the scum kill as I suspect,

The Kokichi Oma kill was likely not groupscum

.

[Ranger]

Oh nevermind I read wrong.

[Ranger]

I have a 2-cost breathing technique. I can target a player with it. If they are a demon, they die...

I'll say my discarded role was exactly this. My discarded vig was a 2-cost breathing technique, targeting humans instead of demons.

It's plausible Blue's town, but I'm still skeptical.

[Ranger]

I redirected BlueSnakelet to Black/Empathice last night.

[Ranger]

I have theory that characters abilities are not tied to alignment lol

It would not surprise me.

Redirection (the power I chose) and killing humans (the power I discarded) both serve scum better than town; I still possess them regardless.

[Ranger]

RANGER DID YOU REDIRECT KLICK BY ANY CHANCE

No, I redirected PB to FL last night.

[Ranger]

Similar to GiF, I felt confident they were town.

Interesting.

What action gives you a result worth testing on GiF but gives you incentive to visit town?

Those seem opposite.

[Ranger]

VOTE: Doctor Drew
Genuinely the only way I could be involved is if my redirection was itself redirected.
Duplicate actions are possible, so it's feasible there's 2 busdrivers (Doctor Drew - someone else; Klickwork - PB causing me to redirect Klickwork) or 2 redirectors (redirector redirected Klick, redirector redirected me who then redirected Klick).

However, occam's razor: scum got caught.
Redirection is possible; there's no evidence it happened.

Given redirection speculation is precisely that, I'm trusting the result.

[Ranger]

Why?

Trying to get the scum to kill scum.

I need to find

the

scum making the kill, then find scum to target, all the while not letting the scum know.

I almost did FL to PB. It's for the best to not give scum more info.

[Ranger]

Why FL to PB

FL's plausibly scum who would make the nk. So's PB. They fit my profile for who I thought would potentially kill.

[Ranger]

kokichi but I’m 2 different characters in one[/quote]Ah, I know your flavor then. Your claim definitely fits. Tracker the girl, vengeful the guy, right?

Why FL to PB

FL's plausibly scum who would make the nk. So's PB. They fit my profile for who I thought would potentially kill.

oh so you just fos both of them

Loosely, I did, yeah.

[Ranger]

Fix'd:

kokichi but I’m 2 different characters in one

Ah, I know your flavor then. Your claim definitely fits. Tracker the girl, vengeful the guy, right?

Why FL to PB

FL's plausibly scum who would make the nk. So's PB. They fit my profile for who I thought would potentially kill.

oh so you just fos both of them

Loosely, I did, yeah.

[Ranger]

Ranger is awfully quiet

Yeah. I've a need to. I lose value with my role if I broadcast who I'm going to target; playing cards close to my chest is a must.

When there's a need for scumhunting, I'll bite the bullet and step up, despite the lost utility.
Today, no such need exists. We've got a guilty to elim. We've got furtive destined to die. We've got a night of actions coming up (N3).

[Ranger]

Ranger where u at with reads

I'll say I don't have much in the way of reads.
I appreciated the mod intervention, because it was necessary: two players have nearly half the posts in the entire game. Add in third place (you), and you cross the 50% threshold. 3 players have over half the posts in the game. Their noise makes receiving alignment signals on the other 8 players more difficult for me.
I've been recovering from rl issues, so keeping up with the amount being posted was impossible.

Despite the difficulties, I've still got reads; they aren't strong. I've only weak townleans; I've no real scumreads, as much as a gigantic pool of nulls which some are more likely to be scum within.

Should I live to tomorrow, I'll share what little I've got. It won't be groundbreaking; I doubt I'll get reads I'm happy with.

[Ranger]

Y’all I think we need to find the poisoner first if possible

Personally, I'd prefer letting furtiveglance die. If the poisoner targets someone we want to live,

then

we find the poisoner. I'm content letting the poisoner kill a slot there's a desire to flip regardless.

[Ranger]

Am I the only one who is scared of scum poisoner meaning extra deaths?

If they poison people we wanted dead anyway, let them. We'll eliminate them when we've a need to.
Worst case scenario: Drew town, furtive town, scum nightkill N3, we go into D4 with 9 alive.
Given this was a 17 player game, shouldn't be 5 groupscum, so we shouldn't lose even in the worst-case scenario. The poisoner might condemn a player; we've potentially two chances (lim+redirected-nk) to deal with them if so.

[Ranger]

Why do you want to kill me

I don't; I want to let you die. :P

I'm okay letting you die because you are a figure of interest. Many players want your alignment known, and allege your flip informs them on the likely alignment of others.

I'm skeptical of their capability to deliver; nonetheless, I'll learn a lot from their attempts.

[Ranger]

Town poisoner died. Furtive is poisoned but town poisoner didn’t do it. Nobody claimed poisoning furtive.
Does that not give any red flag to you

We know there's duplicate roles. In fact flavor-wise I've a good idea who the poisoner likely is. (It

could

be a more minor character; it's

likely

a major one.) If my suspicion's correct, they can't poison two nights in a row.

I'm not concerned. The poisoner can be town. Even if scum, I believe their poison has a gate (I suspect a double-gate). Even if not, I approve of letting furtive flip.

If poison remains a concern, we can focus on it D4. Today I'm not concerned.

[Ranger]

Hello,

I redirected hebican to Enchant last night

.
Tbh I thought hebichan was a good player to redirect but I lacked ideas on who to redirect towards.
I figured Enchant would be a good choice.

[Ranger]

Mafia buffing their own redirector is guilty.

I certainly understand the logic.

I don't know why I'd be targeted with a scum haste action, since I'm town.

I continue to try and foil the scum with said redirection, too. Last night I might've partially succeeded.

[Ranger]

@ranger pls out ur redirects

N1: BlueSnakelet to Black (submitted while Black was Black, before Black became Empathice).
N2: Pink Ball to Flavor Leaf.
N3: hebichan to Enchant.

[Ranger]

Hello,

I redirected hebican to Enchant last night

.
Tbh I thought hebichan was a good player to redirect but I lacked ideas on who to redirect towards.
I figured Enchant would be a good choice.

this is an eh redirect, imo .
makes me scum u more tbh

What would've been your preference?

From memory,
I wasn't going to redirect Klickwork or redirect to Klickwork, obviously.
I wasn't going to redirect you or redirect towards you; it felt like a bad idea.
I wasn't going to redirect KawaiiKame the claimed jailkeeper, or redirect

towards

the claimed jailkeeper.
I wasn't going to redirect Pink Ball or redirect towards Pink Ball; PB seemed town on D3.
I wasn't going to redirect Firebringer or redirect towards Firebringer; FB is one of the top-3 and part of a trinity which has stated it'll self-revolve.
I wasn't going to redirect GuyInFreezer the claimed commuter or redirect towards the claimed commuter; that'd be a waste.
I wasn't going to redirect Flavor Leaf or redirect to Flavor Leaf because of D3 events.
I wasn't going to redirect furtiveglance or redirect to furtiveglance because he was scheduled to die.

Obviously, since there should be 4 scum (barring a 3 scum+3p), there's scum in the above names. None were what I'd consider good targets.

Which left hebichan and Enchant.

People were suspicious of hebichan.
Enchant was scheduled to be jailkept by KawaiiKame, so it was a win-win. Enchant dies, then he dies (which is +town imo) and KawaiiKame didn't target him and hebichan was a killer. Enchant lives with no kill, and it's likely hebichan is a killer and KawaiiKame protected him with a jailkeep. Enchant lives with a kill elsewhere, then it's likely hebichan didn't perform it thanks to the Haste scum role being dead. (It'd take hebichan being a strongman herself, which is

possible

, but doubtful.)

[Ranger]

Last night I choose myself, grandpa and firebringer.

Interesting. I doubt this claim because I was told self-targeting was forbidden with my role.

Specifically,
I asked if I could redirect a player onto themselves;
I asked if I could redirect a player onto me;
I was told I needed to select two different players (so couldn't redirect a player onto themselves) and couldn't redirect them onto myself.

(There's also a note specifying I can't redirect myself, which feels like it may be important.)

I've other things to do today, so I won't be around for any longer; I strongly suspect hebichan's claim isn't entirely truthful.

VOTE: hebichan

[Ranger]

wait does this mean hebichan is confscum?

It's possible. I need to ask the mod more questions about my role (multi-target roles, a player making multiple actions per night) to confirm.

[Ranger]

Oh nevermind about half of the questions I need to ask.
My role specifies I redirect

all

actions they take. So if someone used two actions, I would redirect both actions.

I do need to check about a multi-targeting single action tho.

[Ranger]

Maybe it's a thing about choosing slayer, you don't need blood but your ability is weaker overall.

I don't recall claiming slayer.

I even specified I discarded the role which very clearly has a breathing technique.

What leads you to believe I am one? I've acted every night, sure; I've also been on every elimination.
Why is your conclusion I'm a slayer with a 1-cost breathing technique, rather than a demon with a cheap repeatable demon art?

[Ranger]

As a demon, I get pms tracking blood every night. They have coincided with flips, and no one used blood before night 3. Blood count was 1, 4, 6, 1

That is a personal blood tracker, not a blood tracker for everyone.

UNVOTE: hebichan

I also got an answer from the mod, using an example of busdriver.

Busdriver is higher in NAR so would be first. If my action happened first for any reason, I'd cancel the busdrive.

As in, if I targeted player B(usdrive) and redirected them to player E, and player B busdrove C and D, the busdrive would come first by default;
If I were hastened, the busdrive would fail because player B would be busdriving player E to player E.

If the logic holds, per hebichan's claim, I

think

her claim's true now.

2267 is a townslip, and by mechanics I believe her role comes first.

[Ranger]

Let me know when you want my fullclaim.

I've claimed redirector and redirected each night; I've not claimed character, human/demon, etc.

[Ranger]

Hello.
I'm unopposed to my lim today. I recognize the damning evidence implicating me, and I've no real explanation* for it.

Despite this, I'm town. Tomorrow, you'll be left scratching your heads confused at what's happened. It

doesn’t

make sense.

I want to try my best to leave you with the best chances tomorrow.
I've a fullclaim to make, as well as another round of questions for the mod, regarding redirection role interactions.
I've reads to give. Regardless of what you believe my alignment is, you should want me to share.

We've had a massclaim. I'm both a mechanically-oriented player and a flavor expert; I can share my knowledge and give my theories.

I'm currently incapacitated, so I need approximately 20 hours of leniency. I shouldn’t need a full 24 hours, just about 20. (16-18 hours incapacitated, 2-4 to share my role, thoughts, theories, etc.)

Can I please have that amount?

[Ranger]

Hello.
I'm unopposed to my lim today. I recognize the damning evidence implicating me, and I've no real explanation* for it.

Despite this, I'm town. Tomorrow, you'll be left scratching your heads confused at what's happened. It

doesn’t

make sense.

The asterisk is because I've tinfoil theories.
Obviously, it’s within Klickwork's scumrange to bus. I don’t think they did, so I am trying to figure out alternatives.
No further town redirection has been claimed, outside of Flavor Leaf's Nexus claim.

My tinfoil is, Drew hasted and killed Flavor Leaf, with FL activating his power N2, and the kill randomly landed on IceDragon and the haste on me. (This seems something FL

would

do.)

I need to ask the mod about the mechanics; it doesn’t seem it should work as so.

I should be clear; my attempts at finding an answer aren’t to save myself. Simply seeking the truth today, as you'll be forced to tomorrow. I realize I should be flipped today, I objectively have been guiltied. Still, I know the guilty is

wrong

.
I don’t understand how or why, and after my flip, neither will you.

Unclaimed redirection, Klickwork lying, my tinfoil theory being right, scum deliberately hasting town, I don’t have an answer. I want to try in the next 20 hours to leave you one after I die today.

[Ranger]

My tinfoil is, Drew hasted and killed Flavor Leaf, with FL activating his power N2, and the kill randomly landed on IceDragon and the haste on me. (This seems something FL

would

do.)

FL claimed not activating it N2.

I'm aware. Inherent in the tinfoil is FL lying. (Not necessarily him being scum, although quite likely in the scenario.)

with FL activating his power N2

Would a track not work on a Nexus?

A good question. One which you should ask and so should I.

A default Nexus is a passive role, as Vengeful, Bomb, Bulletproof, etc. all are: it doesn’t count as performing an action.

An activated Nexus is more situational. For similarly passive roles requiring activation, there’s no universal standard I know of. An activated BP for instance: you can argue it’s still a passive and thus doesn’t visit; you can also argue by virtue of activating, it does.
Not all activated roles are visiting; example: criers post a public message. You can argue it visits everyone, nobody, or even just the player themselves. The most common is not visiting, yet all 3 remain valid.

By

default

, if your action landed on a Nexus and couldn't be redirected by the Nexus, it

should

show as the Nexus not visiting.
It could also show as visiting everyone.
It could also show as visiting themselves.

This is also dependent on your action not being redirected after I redirected it.

There’s a reason I called it tinfoil. It’d require a very specific interpretation of multiple roles interacting with each other.

Like I said; I don’t

really

have answers. I'm trying to find some for you tomorrow; I've yet to succeed. I'll continue brainstorming as I can.

[Ranger]

Tou want to imply that mafia Drew attacked Flavor, own teammate for sake of using fog of redirection.
That's correct?

Mostly, yes.
More aptly, the tinfoil theory goes: scum knew FL's role, knew he'd activate it N2, hasted it to guarantee it resolved first, then killed FL. Except instead of hasting FL, FL's redirect caused the haste to land on me.

I don’t know why scum wouldn’t just haste the player making the nightkill, but we already know

for whatever reason

, they didn’t.

In short,

Doctor Drew made the kill N2;
Doctor Drew hasted me;
Why did Doctor Drew make the kill?

Maximum efficiency

should

be,
Doctor Drew hastes a scumbuddy,
The hasted scumbuddy makes the kill.

We Know they

didn’t

do so. Doctor Drew, the one doing the hasting, made the kill. Not the player he hasted.

I feel part of answering why I was hasted is reliant on figuring out why Doctor Drew hasted

and

killed, instead of the more optimal hasting a scumbuddy who then kills.

My best guess is the tinfoil theory right now.
I wish I had better. I don’t, not yet.

PB got “Flavor Leaf didn’t visit anyone” on N2.
He got his name so he wasn’t redirected. So FL didn’t pop his fog N2.

Yeah this, it doesn't matter what result it would show, I can confirm it wasn't activated 'cause I would've been redirected if he activated it in the first place

You misunderstand.

My theory isn’t "PB got redirected off FL, to someone who didn’t visit".

My theory is "PB visited FL, but FL's power didn’t display as a visit".

This theory does rely on PB being unable to be redirected off an activated Nexus.

It’s actually a common interaction by NAR:
Actions are often only able to be redirected

once

--and I redirected PB

to

FL.

The interactions are messy. It works in theory as so:
Drew kills+hastes FL.
FL's nexus redirects the kill to IceDragon, and the haste to me.
I get hasted.
I redirect PB to FL.
FL's Nexus would

normally

redirect PB elsewhere, but I--with a hasted redirect--redirected PB to FL.
FL's nexus redirection is in conflict with my redirection.
Since I got hasted, my redirect took priority, causing PB to land on FL.

This is a chain requiring half a dozen mechanical assumptions on my part. I called it tinfoil for good reason. It still is my best answer right now, despite how convoluted it is.

[Ranger]

Quick caveat;
I know my theory violates Ockam's Razor.
The simplest explanation objectively is scum hasted a scumbuddy who redirected.
I

know

the simplest explanation is wrong, because I'm town.

So to be clear and reiterate, I do die today, to verify the simplest explanation doesn’t apply.

You'll be left tomorrow to figure out what non-simple explanation makes things fit; my efforts are meant to support you there.

[Ranger]

still concerned about something I haven't pointed out: two trackers in a role madness, one with no other power and the other with two different powers?

If you can wait about 12-16 hours, I can address this.

Simply put, my basic theory is

most

roles (not all) have precisely one opposite duplicate of loosely equivalent cost.

My discarded demon role (yes, discarded

demon

) was a two-stamina (yes,

stamina

) vig which only worked on humans. (I will elaborate when not incapacitated.)

BlueSnakelet had a human role of a two-stamina vig which only worked on demons.

My discarded role was an

exact

mirror to his chosen role.

I can explain what gave me this theory when I explain everything later.

Suffice to say, you and Klickwork are two top townreads. Hebichan is another for a townslip I believe is genuine, despite your results.

I believe all three of you are town.
I may have more townreads, but to verify them, I'll need to reread D2, D3, and all of today.

In the meanwhile, my tinfoil theory still is worth asking about the mod.

You've a flipped activated nexus-adjacent role to ask about interactions with.

When free, I'll be doing my own questions.

[Ranger]

Enchant somehow knows that poison on furtive is done by human.

Enchant doesn’t need role knowledge for this.

I deduced the furtiveglance poisoner to be human from flavor knowledge (plus my human-deman duplicate role theory) alone.

It’s obviously the Insect Hashira.

I will explain more...
...You get the drill. (In about 14 hours or so, when free.)

[Ranger]

And Ranger is demon so it couldn’t have been her.

About that.

Everyone assumed I'm a demon from D1 because I said I discarded what was obviously a stamina-based role.

There’s reason I initially believed hebichan assuming I'm human was her scumslipping. (Her explanation reversed it into a hard-townslip.)

If it was any other Demon I discarded, this would be true.
My Demon used stamina, not blood arts, so despite assumptions, I'm human.

[Ranger]

Enchant somehow knows that poison on furtive is done by human.

Enchant doesn’t need role knowledge for this.

I deduced the furtiveglance poisoner to be human from flavor knowledge (plus my human-deman duplicate role theory) alone.

It’s obviously the Insect Hashira.

I will explain more...
...You get the drill. (In about 14 hours or so, when free.)

Short version for now:
Flavor knowledge this game is incredibly OP.
With few exceptions (I'm sus of the Muzan claim; I'll explain when available), abilities are

tremendously

matched to flavor.

The Insect Hashira kills demons, and only demons, with poison. Knowing furtiveglance claimed demon, and seeing IceDragon flip, I instantly deduced his poisoner to be her.

The flavors are so neatly matched, you can likely deduce the discarded roles' natures, despite their not flipping.

This game is using the main characters, Muzan's current and former top 12, and the current/former Hashiras, by and large. Knowing this was how I also deduced Klickwork's flavor, and I have a good idea who PB is, too. (Most of those with Flavor justifications for tracking have already flipped.)

So, knowledge is critical.

My discarded demon is the only Demon who would use stamina instead of blood arts. My discarded demon being the counterpart to Tanjiro's vig fits perfectly with the flavor as an exact mirror.

Waterbreathing literally states it's the breathing style of redirection, and I as the Water Hashira am a redirector.

If you are familiar with the source material, you can essentially perfectly solve for a great deal.

Since I am, I want to share the full list when capable. (14ish hours.)

[Ranger]

Wait

We massclaimed. Why didn’t we massclaim the discarded roles

Good question!

Why don’t you handle resolving that while you’re waiting on me?

A lot of my theories have been proven true before I even could offer them. (I deduced Klickwork's visit to everyone before they did, just couldn’t post it due to irl.)

You should perhaps consider I may know what I am talking about.

That also applies to you, PB.
You can, and

should

, be asking about various interactions.

When free, I can explain the theory better, lay out the mechanics, the setup, etc.

Trust in my good faith before you eliminate me, so you have less work tomorrow.

[Ranger]

I'd like to specify I'll not be truly around for another 3-6 hours or so. I've a

momentary

window to share this, not a dedicated bloc of time.

I thought about my reads and

tentatively

, this is where I'm at:

(NOTE: 3p not factored in. This is purely for scum; any 3p are essentially considered town for the purpose of this list.)

{Pink Ball, GuyInFreezer}
{Klickwork, hebichan, Enchant}
{Firebringer}
{KawaiiKame}
{GrandpaMo}
{Flavor Leaf}

I very strongly believe Pink Ball to be town by both claim and role. His claimed role fits perfectly since a human tracker would need either scent (Tanjiro, who flipped with a different power), hearing (Zenitsu, who flipped with a different power; Tengen Uzui), or touch (Inosuke, with Beast Breathing, Seventh Form, Spacial Awareness).
The discarded power perfectly fits Enmu's power. I knew flavor-wise Enmu would either be a commuter/BP (because of merging with a train), or a roleblocker due to Enmu's power to put players to sleep. Selecting the tracker over the roleblocker is +town.
Seeing his stances, it's clear he thought he had genuine guilties.

I strongly believe GuyInFreezer is town by play. I don't see him having claimed flavor from a skim (I'll review), so that aspect's hard to verify. The choice of doctor fits, and the targets were good ones. GIF has been consistently solving in ways I find incredibly +town.

Klickwork I believe has a genuine result, and I genuinely believe they think it was a guilty. I realize they

could

have bussed; play-wise I don't think they did. Their interaction is believable and role-wise I buy it. Daki's demon art involved using her ribbons to create a network of information throughout the entire town, tracking movements similarly to how Inosuke does. An effectively passive demon art fits. In the rare instances Daki gets her head cut off (she can slay Hashira on her own), Ume comes out to avenge her (Vengeful) and cuts her would-be slayer down. Ume is notably the stronger of the two and only comes out late, so summoning him naturally would be expensive. Once he comes out, Daki doesn't use her ribbons anymore, so I buy the track being disabled.

Enchant

might

be a 3p, but he's certainly not scum. Since he's

either

town or 3p, regardless he's not someone I'd recommend voting out any time soon. I've seen Enchant react to guilties and he genuinely believes the guilty. He's not faking his belief I'm scum, which makes him town (or effectively so).

hebichan is purely for a townslip:

3.2. Demons earn blood for each death in-game (elimination or kills). If they are directly involved with the kill they earn 1 extra blood (if they hammer the elimination or they do the killing).
3.3. Blood demon arts cost a certain amount of blood to be cast. The entire blood reserve of the demon gets zeroed after casting a blood demon art.

Maybe it's a thing about choosing slayer, you don't need blood but your ability is weaker overall.

I don't recall claiming slayer.

I even specified I discarded the role which very clearly has a breathing technique.

What leads you to believe I am one? I've acted every night, sure; I've also been on every elimination.
Why is your conclusion I'm a slayer with a 1-cost breathing technique, rather than a demon with a cheap repeatable demon art?

As a demon, I get pms tracking blood every night.

They have coincided with flips, and no one used blood before night 3.

Blood count was 1, 4, 6, 1

hebichan had a fundamental misunderstanding of blood mechanics. The

only

way she would genuinely make this mistake as scum is if she were on the scumteam and the entire scumteam was human.

I don't believe the mistake was faked. hebichan assumed I am human through a wrong mechanic; that's not something scum would go out of their way to invent.
Ergo, with her genuinely having made a mechanics mistake, she couldn't have had a scumteam to compare notes on demon arts about.

She can be 3p, she can be scum on a team entirely comprised of humans. She cannot be scum if there's a demon on the scumteam.

I'd strongly recommend avoiding eliminations on the top five.

The bottom four logically should contain the remaining scum.

I believe if there was a foiled kill via protection it was either on Pink Ball or Firebringer, which is why Firebringer is on the top.
I believe there's a decent chance GrandpaMo was the killer and failed thanks to hebichan.
I believe FlavorLeaf is the most likely reason for the night shenanigans being what they have been.

None of these are definitive. I feel my PoE is good.

I intend to explain these reads in further detail, as well as review every aspect of them, in approximately 4 hours.

[Ranger]

the amount of openwolfing and shit posting we did was crazy

Yeah it's almost like flooding the thread is +scum regardless of alignment so if all three scum are doing it and nobody decides to resolve the noise with flips...

[Ranger]

We would achieve more if someone bothered to vote GrandPaMa instead of argueing with pinkball.

We also would've achieved more if a flavor/mech expert had time to lay out her knowledge rather than being hammered ten minutes before she was coming online to post (at the time she specified she would be coming online to post).

I could've told you why the Muzan claim was so sus, and why the poisoner had to be a scum human and thus proven demons couldn't be the scum poisoner. I would've pointed out Firebringer's lack of claim as well, which would put him in the pool to be precisely that.

Would that alone have made the difference? Probably not. I still likely die; the next day, the thread still likely gets flooded.

Our odds would certainly have been better, even if the result ended the same.

[Ranger]

Regardless I still feel salty for my good faith claim getting so viciously attacked by town

You're not alone. :P

I had you as town.

I admit, I also had Klickwork there as well, since while I knew Klickwork could bus I didn't see the motive behind why they would, knowing it'd cause one scum to die and then lose credibility after town flipped.

Still, it was possible both by play and mechanics to deduce who the scum were.

I'm not disappointed in the town for being unable to follow through to the needed end, because the scum played to their wincon. Flooding the thread and controlling the narrative as they did was exactly what they needed to win; they pulled it off.

I'm more disappointed at the +scum play coming from scum being rewarded. (This level of thread flooding is unacceptable, and the results of this game demonstrate why.) It was

correct

of them, to prevent the play/mech solving from clicking. It was

smart

. It

worked

. I'm still not happy it's a viable strat.

[Ranger]

Jesus how did we win this game with all the night action fuckery going to the scum team.

By flooding the thread, wearing down the willpower of townies trying to solve, breaking their resolve by entering into long drawn-out arguments deflecting from damning evidence, and controlling the narrative by stating the day phase had gone on too long when it had been less than 48 hours (stating things had stalled, when the scum were the cause of the stall in the first place). And by repeatedly spamming those points from all three players. Exhausting the town, draining the town, removing their capability to focus and critically think/analyze, by utilizing the realized threat of being unable to keep up if someone tried to go back and focus on a prior area.

Which is smart and deserves credit for working.
I'm just disappointed it does.

[Ranger]

Kagaya Ubuyashiki

FA IS THIS NOT THE FLAVOR CLAIM U WERE GIVING TO ME
woah im glad i never actually claimed a flavor

Yes, the massclaim wasn't handled well.

I wasn't involved in it to point out the lack of claimed discards and lack of claimed flavor.

I do credit scum thread flooding over town incompetence there. The thread was moving so fast, there wasn't time for a non-specialist around to posit the questions. The little effort there never manifested further.

So, well-played on spamming the game out of a thorough massclaim.

[Ranger]

This game definitely showed how powerful the scum flooding the thread can be but as someone who can't keep up that pace of posting even when motivated and enthusiastic (due to a mix of reasons) this game is making me wonder how to handle similar games in future.

Some players will flood the thread regardless of their alignment.

Politely ask them to keep it under control.

Demonstrate the harm coming from them specifically.

Reach out to them and tell them to tone it down, to scale back. Ask them to step away, request they collect themselves.

Point to their overwhelming presence, explain to them why it's problematic and +scum, and reason with them.

If they ignore your requests, they're being +scum. Analyze if their continued +scum thread flooding is due to being town baited in, or scum deliberately choosing to be loud.

Vote them out if you so much as suspect the latter.

A player incapable of reeling in their problematic posts deserves to be removed from the game. Give town players who indulge a chance to reflect on the harm their spamming brought; give scum an incentive to

not

engage in the +scum strategy in the future which makes the game miserable for everyone who can't match their pace.

[Ranger]

A player incapable of reeling in their problematic posts deserves to be removed from the game. Give town players who indulge a chance to reflect on the harm their spamming brought; give scum an incentive to

not

engage in the +scum strategy in the future which makes the game miserable for everyone who can't match their pace.

I should note; total improvement is nigh-impossible to achieve.

A player with an average postcount of 20 posts / 24 hours isn't going to cut down to 1 post every 36 or so. Expecting them to is unrealistic.

A player with an average postcount of 20 posts / 24 hours is fully capable of cutting the total down to a more reasonable number, around 6-8. Maybe they relapse to around 12; if they are actively cognizant of the issues behind their spamming, they will eventually bring the total down to a more acceptable amount.

When I say "incapable of reeling in their problematically high posting rate", I mean when they show no effort at all to improve, reject efforts to improve, immediately shoot up to the same high total after only a brief pause, etc. It's obviously a judgement call on whether you believe they are showing good faith. If they are, then the thread will eventually become healthier. If they aren't, then the only way to improve thread health is to remove those players.

[Ranger]

you had good reads but you tried to bargain with the devil and the devil wore you down

I'll leave a final note on the topic;
This game became miserable for basically every non-scum player because of the scum's chosen tactic of flooding the thread.

The scum's tactic worked.

I certainly hope how miserable the town was, and the scum's victory, serves as an incentive to ensure this never happens again.

Be cognizant of your impact on the game as town. Listen to others when they tell you. Speak up to tell others about any harm they are causing. Be productive, and constructive, with targeted comments avoiding inherent accusations into the character/competency of the player performing the harmful behavior. Engage in the behavior you wish to see from others; lead by example.

Town players who can find good reads from topping the activity charts won't help the town if the rest of the town can't keep up. Be strategic, be targeted, be focused.

Small tangents can be massively productive. Keep those tangents going indefinitely, and any signals found are lost in the overwhelming amount of noise.

Spamposting, in a day and age where most of the players are adults with jobs who are on mafiascum specifically because we don't have shorter 48-hour deadlines like other major mafia forums do, is +scum more often than not, and makes the games less fun and more stressful for all parties involved more often than not.

It is perfectly acceptable to say a topic needs to be more explored, and the day is not yet ready to end. (This game serves as a nice demonstration of that.) The engagement on the topic needs to not drown out all other signals, both present and past. Any new talks should build upon the previous, rather than replacing and overriding them.

The scum played well;
Despite pieces of playing well present, the town made many mistakes.

The thread activity isn't exclusively to blame for this. I still think it a major factor, so would

strongly

recommend the lesson of activity awareness be transferred to future games. Other lessons are important to remember as well; I personally feel the need to tone back on the level of posting is the most important.

[Ranger]

I agree with Ranger

Sorry for replacing out, but this game started on the weekend and in

two

days there was already 40 pages and a D1 elimination. That's just not the type of game I want to play

Very well played scum. And thank you for modding FA. Hopefully next time the game starts under different circumstances and I can play

That doesn't sound like a valid reason for subbing out

To the contrary: that's the

most

valid reason to sub out.

[Ranger]

This is just me but I think subbing out is just for OOG reasons including mental health
I'm sure everyone knows that replacements ruin games for everyone including the host
like maybe if you didn't have a clueless town subbing into d5 elo then maybe town would've won this game.

It might not always be true but giving players the choice to subout for a game related reason already leaves the remaining players an info to speculate whether them subbing out got something to do with their alignment
afterall they already saw what their alignment is before they subbed out.
People may not say it in thread because it's not allowed but it will always be at the back of their mind.

but thats just me ranting why subs are bad
I may hate subs out

Respectfully, that's a you issue, not a site issue.

Replacements don't ruin games. They're certainly an inconvenience, especially if the replacement isn't going to do what is the necessary bare minimum in the gamestate. However, that's an issue with the player replacing in, not with the idea of a replacement. The onus is on the player replacing in to put in the necessary time/effort.

The site does have an issue with many replacements refusing to do so. This is never the fault of the slot subbing out. It can be understandable to not want to read a 200 page game when subbing in. It is still a choice to choose not to.

People generally don't question replace-outs anymore.
The site punishes players replacing out strategically. The site punishes players who announce the reason why they're replacing out. The site punishes players who have a repeated history of subbing out in circumstances which can lead to a trust tell. If there are grounds to suspect one of these applies, it can enter people's minds as something they report to the authorities (and then they can and should immediately move on after they have filed reports of their concerns).

Otherwise, it doesn't, because it shouldn't. Players don't speculate. They don't do so inthread, but they also don't do so in their mind. You might. You're in the minority. As it should be, because speculation on motives for replacing out doesn't belong in the game. The site rules make that clear.