TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

[Gimli]

yeah I don't see klick being particularly interested in this game if he randed scum though, I don't know if it's a meh reason but I like it nonetheless

[Cephrir]

I learned my lesson about assuming LLD emotions = town so I will not be doing that this game

this is a weird statement, i'm pretty sure you learned this lesson many moons ago. what new version of this lesson prompted this?

maybe emotions is the wrong word how about emotional vibes

im talking about the previous version of this setup we played in. i didn't think your opening there was likely to come from scum you and it did

anyway you're right that this isn't super relevant to anything and idk why im talking about it

[Rad]

He's really confident his tr-s are town, although I'm less sure on people like rad.

This is kinda interesting. scum!Bella's pocketed me quite easily in the past in multiple games. It's been half a year + since then, so maybe outdated meta, but I wouldn't really expect scum!Bella to bother throwing suspicion my way. Also town!Bella is not great at reading town!me (and visa versa to be fair). I dunno, I was leaning town on Bella anyway and this is a nice little boost to that.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I learned my lesson about assuming LLD emotions = town so I will not be doing that this game

this is a weird statement, i'm pretty sure you learned this lesson many moons ago. what new version of this lesson prompted this?

maybe emotions is the wrong word how about emotional vibes

im talking about the previous version of this setup we played in. i didn't think your opening there was likely to come from scum you and it did

anyway you're right that this isn't super relevant to anything and idk why im talking about it

right the "Chill having fun with friends being happy" LLD that came as a calm before the storm of "12 days from surgical prep unable to sleep horrified at the possible bad outcomes" LLD that is probably much less fun to play with.

Yeah, neither were particularly influenced by any specific game choice. They're... facts of my current existence. I'd apologize for them if I felt like I could. Regardless of my rolled alignment... it's just where I am right now. I don't like it, but it's what I have to work with.

So I'm trying to work on managing my expectations and keeping my chill in a game where normally you're supposed to be able to turn off but I can't turn off and every small slight feels like a world ending threat.

Scum, town... you'll need to find me some other way. It's just how things are, right now.

[mith]

I didn't cherry pick, I actually went to the MS wiki of X/Y PYP and went through the listed games one by one and sought out whether the pattern fit or did not fit in specific games, leaving games where there were no large groupings out, and mentioning examples that didn't fit the pattern

What I'm asking is whether you presented the results of this. As I said, what I saw in my skim was the mention of a couple of games, and I entirely accept that I might have missed a more thorough analysis. Whether you did that more thorough analysis or not, if all you

posted

was a couple of games that conform to your conclusion that could still be cherry-picking (not cherry-picking to reach a conclusion, but rather cherry-picking in presenting that conclusion; and again, either could be non-deliberate).

Look, I encourage you to do the review yourself if you think I'm cherry picking or using the argument to obfuscate.

I will at some point; the question still stands on whether you have presented this analysis and what your criteria of selection (for whether the "pattern fit") was.

like part of the maths people are running is saying "Well how likely is it for scum to make a triplicate" but is ignoring that a triplicate has already been made.

I mean, I wrote a paragraph about this exactly and reached an opposite conclusion, but ok. Since I just can't help myself, I did the simulation again and pulled out only the results that have the same distribution as this game (4 singles, 3 doubles, 1 triple):

Code: Select all

     All Games (60000)    Matching Games (10422)
1   0.278209797           0.269621954
2   0.462059882           0.449561824
3   0.591573852           0.572826713

(I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader why these probabilities are

all

lower than in the sample as a whole; it's somewhat counterintuitive, but there's a mathematical explanation. And I will happily admit that this is not a definitive answer on the problem, since the choice of buckets is arbitrary and it is in no way taking into account the uneven distribution in what players would actually select.)

My point of all this is not "OMG LLD is wrong about the maths, obvscum". I'm not even presenting this as a definitive math theory answer. You might well be right about the historical trends, and certainly taking into account the possibility of a scum gambit tips things toward groupings (though probably as much toward pairs as triples). I'll get into what I find suspect about this later, have to run for a meeting.

[Cephrir]

i think the draft numbers conversation has done as much good as it's ever going to and i'd like to see us move on

[Bellaphant]

I think I said that 7 pages ago

Datisi, klick said yes..maybe more after bed time

[Alisae]

I am EMBARASSED >_<
I am probably BLUSHING x_x

i stg I'm going to kill you if you keep pinging me like this

[Alisae]

wait

so my team said datisi picks 1 every time, why did you pick 1 mena

I also pick 1 every time, Datisi can do one (<3)

ok so Datisi and Mena are likely to be aligned with each other.

[Alisae]

why does gimli's 2 stand out to you ass opposed to my 1 or literally any other number ever

2 stands out as something I feel like a wolf picks cuz its below 1 and single digit

[Alisae]

Alisae could be town (have we been in a game where I was town? I don't have time to check).

No this is our 3rd game together,

I want to think this player writes this as town?
UNVOTE:

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I am EMBARASSED >_<
I am probably BLUSHING x_x

i stg I'm going to kill you if you keep pinging me like this

no please not this fucking emote again

[Alisae]

Not fond of Rad's presence being the LLD null-or-town debacle + let's all take a breath, but the latter really isn't what I'd bill Rad for; Marashu's entrance being justify vote -> scumreading Rad for the moderation -> piggyback joke haha we're scum -> hop on Rad bandwagon was impressive, Gimli has the right idea

Implosion came in with good takes but then RVS'd instead of doing a real vote, which they still haven't moved; I like them following up on some of relevant setup theory bits ("this game does median, so how good is the data from previous games" + "you included the 1-in-5 as positive examples, but in reality those point in the opposite direction"), but they don't do anything with the protracted theory conversation (or otherwise) so I'm leaning scum on this one, too

VOTE: Marashu

I imagine the 2nd part is about imaginality?
I could see a wolf writing this.
What I liked about Imaginality is I feel like they were the first person to write a townread on Rad and I felt like what they put out isn't likely to come from a wolf?

[Alisae]

like compared with alisae on this page, it seems like they're actually trying to defuse the situation and get these two to understand each other. am i townleaning alisae now? i might be.

Why do you think I am town for this?

[Alisae]

I’m waiting to hear back on the limming in the 6s thing, but koba thinks scum is likely in Maru/ali so I guess I might end up backing a lim there anyway

Why does koba fos me?

[Alisae]

Also the extent of the draft discussion was me saying “I’m gonna pick 1” and jingle saying “that’s cool” p much

i have a feeling this is a lie but i don't know why you would lie about this as scum or as town

like i feel like koba of all people seemed really excited for TM and i'm guessing they'd be giving thoughts about literally everyone and doing meta research or whatever, so i find it weird they apparently didn't chime in at all

but also i think they'd do it no matter what alignment you rolled so i'm overall ????????????

I feel mena's "I don't give a fuck" attitude towards picking 1.

[Alisae]

my team reads right now include

a complete Ythan agreement, a dissonance on Bella (some of them think leaning on Klick is scummy, some of them think it's in character for Bella) a lot of null reads on Rad that I think I'm slightly higher town on then they are and an observation that Maru's slow start is typical for them and I should be cautious to scumread them for just a bad string of opening posts.

Why would leaning on Klick be wolfy?
I feel like regardless of alignment, Bella would try to show that Klick is participating.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

my team reads right now include

a complete Ythan agreement, a dissonance on Bella (some of them think leaning on Klick is scummy, some of them think it's in character for Bella) a lot of null reads on Rad that I think I'm slightly higher town on then they are and an observation that Maru's slow start is typical for them and I should be cautious to scumread them for just a bad string of opening posts.

Why would leaning on Klick be wolfy?
I feel like regardless of alignment, Bella would try to show that Klick is participating.

I'll ask Ydra

[Alisae]

I can feel klick's townyness through bella its so glorious

Ya I feel like this is something Bella would do as both alignments.
Bella TRing me for just be reasonable seems easy but they also stated their read on imaginality is stronger than on me so ig they could be town

[Alisae]

I would like to know Ceph's reads!

[Alisae]

I'll just respond to this directly rather than making a massive wall picking apart previous posts.

i agree with that as the base calculation, live evidence from past games suggests the number is higher in triplicate number choices, as would a cursory glance at scum selection choices and the kind of logic that is put in by scum to their choices.

Apologies if I missed this, but have you actually provided statistics on this evidence? I saw you reference a couple of specific games, which is not compelling (could be cherry-picking, deliberately or not).

it's a fractional edge over picking 3 names at random from a strictly maths standpoint but that edge is increased IMO by the psychology of how the game is played and further redoubled in usefulness by not revealing town power structure via claims overmuch, especially when Scum chose Multitasking over informed, so they are decently in the dark, some info assuredly but a good chance they're missing a few different high power info roles they have to play around as a result.

1. I agree with you on the point about not revealing town powers this early. This is a good reason to not go after the singletons day 1.

2. Regarding the maths, there could be a small edge over picking 3 names at random, but there is a

larger

edge in picking scum from the singletons*.

I couldn't help myself and put together a little simulation; it's of course difficult to simulate a problem like this because of the psychology of closest unique to median (or lowest, in the other games), so I've simplified the problem as follows: 3 Mafia, 10 Town, town is picking randomly from a set of 10 numbers (10 is completely arbitrary here), Mafia is picking 0, 1, and 2:

Simulating 60000 games gave the following results:

Code: Select all

#     Mafia    Overall  Percentage       Expected
1     62960    226144	0.278406679	0.230769231
2     69553    150756	0.461361405	0.423076923
3     34894     59043	0.590993005	0.58041958
4     10285     14968	0.687132549	0.706293706
5      1992      2606	0.76438987	0.804195804
6       283       341	0.829912023	0.877622378

In this simulation, the probability of Mafia appearing in a group of 3 is up to 59% vs. 58% for an arbitrary set of 3 players. There's nothing particularly special about the groups of 3 though; overall, Mafia are more likely to avoid grouping (compared to an arbitrary selection of 3) because they are picking unique numbers compared to each other.

Additionally, we have the specific knowledge of how the numbers split. I would expect the likelihood of Mafia in specifically the one triplet

with the knowledge that we have the partition that we do

is actually slightly lower than 58%. (This follows directly from knowing the edge for singletons and pairs in the full simulation is much more significant.) Might write some code for this later just as an interesting math question; I just don't consider it all that relevant to the game.

* All of this depends on the likelihood of a scum gambit being negligible, of course. (Though I would guess that if we were 100% sure of a scum gambit with a singleton and a pair, it would be more likely mathematically for the pair to be on their own rather than as part of a triple?)

3. The "IMO" here seems like a far cry from your earlier rhetoric on this. (That said, I have really only skimmed the earlier argument at this point.)

------

Anyway, that's probably all the maths I will be doing on this (at least for the game, it's an interesting problem!). I'm not likely to base anything on how the numbers happened to fall beyond things like "we know Ythan has a role, we know Staeg likely has a role, etc., forcing a claim out of these slots day 1 would be counterproductive".

Initial reads coming later, I should probably get some work done. But in the meantime,
VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

you seem like you agree with LLD here? Maybe my reading comprehension is in the toilet, but if you two seem to think that it's likely that 3 wolves are in 6s, why are you voting her?
Also do you have other reads?

[Alisae]

I am EMBARASSED >_<
I am probably BLUSHING x_x

i stg I'm going to kill you if you keep pinging me like this

no please not this fucking emote again

I love yellow its funny

[Alisae]

What would ping you about 387 though that's what I wanna know.

[Alisae]

Also more importantly I don't wanna kill any 6s LLD...

[Cephrir]

The following is why I hadn't posted reads yet

Alisae - haven't seen anything wolfy yet (I think this is how to read this person)
Bellaphant - maybe town
Cephrir - cool; attractive
Datisi - idk
Gimli I thought about voting here just because I don't have a reason not to yet but then I didnt
imaginality idk
Lady Lambdadelta idk
Marashu idk don't really like how many votes they have for existing
Menalque idk
mith idk
Rad idk
Staeg maybe a tiny bit town
Ythan townish