Mini 2297 | Conception | Postgame

[Flavor Leaf]

That's my biggest hangup: there's no real reason for ScumHugir to claim any of that.

[ActionDan]

him seemingly defending Hugir.

I'm just thinking about my own case, like I know something unclaimed targeted me N1. Thus there has been a lie by omission already

[furtiveglance]

If we look at how risky claims are, AD's self-watching is fairly safe. Yes, his N1 being acted on causes a contradiction of sorts, but only with the mysterious bogeyman of 'lying scum', rather than with another player specifically.

[ActionDan]

Why wouldn't Hugir's last-to-claim not knowing Ice countered redirectors be even safer?

[furtiveglance]

Why wouldn't Hugir's last-to-claim not knowing Ice countered redirectors be even safer?

Yeah, I guess both claims are fairly safe compared to the group as a whole

[IceDragon70]

The only Bastard mechanic present is the possibility of mod misdirection.

What do people think this might be referring to based on claims so far?

To me, from this, it would make sense if one or both Affiliation players were not Invocation.

Agreed.

[ActionDan]

I'd also like to add that as scum my N2 result of no one visiting me would have been pretty risky considering Hugir / Ice to claim targets behind me.

[IceDragon70]

I would lean AD over Hugir, though. A bit weird considering AD had been getting a little townier for me + him seemingly defending Hugir.

Are you saying your own lean on AD is a bit weird?
Why are you leaning AD in the first place?

[IceDragon70]

Wait FL, big question:

Did keeper tell you they neighborized Aisa but didn't tell you about the flier?

[IceDragon70]

I wonder if there's a possibility that scum have a redirector ability as a factional ability. I mean this would imply Hugir is scum just for claiming it still so.. meh.

Yeah, this was my reasoning as well.

[IceDragon70]

That's my biggest hangup: there's no real reason for ScumHugir to claim any of that.

True.

So should we go for AD, as I originally suggested?

Also, I had a thought that just maybe Kawaii targeted goldfish and didn't realize Aisa was the same slot? It's a bit of a crazy theory, but I'm not putting it beyond Kawaii.

[IceDragon70]

him seemingly defending Hugir.

I'm just thinking about my own case, like I know something unclaimed targeted me N1. Thus there has been a lie by omission already

Who do you think it is?

[Abnegation]

That's my biggest hangup: there's no real reason for ScumHugir to claim any of that.

True.

So should we go for AD, as I originally suggested?

Also, I had a thought that just maybe Kawaii targeted goldfish and didn't realize Aisa was the same slot? It's a bit of a crazy theory, but I'm not putting it beyond Kawaii.

that kawaii theory makes a lot of sense.

[Flavor Leaf]

I would lean AD over Hugir, though. A bit weird considering AD had been getting a little townier for me + him seemingly defending Hugir.

Are you saying your own lean on AD is a bit weird?
Why are you leaning AD in the first place?

Just felt early on they were setting me up for a misfade this day phase, and made a logical reasoning behind it, something that they would do to their own accord as scum. It was also a mix of where my town leans were too, and the fact I was seeing potential Furt/AD team.

im in a situation where i really dont want to come in this game, scum read AD, then light town, only to still fade them off and them be town.

[Flavor Leaf]

It's possible ActionD and Aisa were bus driven or something Night 1.

[IceDragon70]

Why wouldn't Hugir's last-to-claim not knowing Ice countered redirectors be even safer?

It is safe, which is why I saved my own claim for last.

I'm pretty sure it's a 1v1 between the two of you either way.

[Flavor Leaf]

That's my biggest hangup: there's no real reason for ScumHugir to claim any of that.

True.

So should we go for AD, as I originally suggested?

Also, I had a thought that just maybe Kawaii targeted goldfish and didn't realize Aisa was the same slot? It's a bit of a crazy theory, but I'm not putting it beyond Kawaii.

that kawaii theory makes a lot of sense.

damn it does

[Flavor Leaf]

Aisa could have been killed off because Kawaii threat of saying who they really targeted in the night if it wasn't Aisa. Even if it was the Goldfish theory, scum wouldn't have known and could have targeted.

2-3 is a possibility for the scum teams, where the 3 doesnt have a kill, but 2 does.

[Abnegation]

@Abnegation; if you haven't explained already and I just missed it, regardless of color considerations, why did you vote Feysal at all? Does it have to do with your D2 reads post?

i actually forgot why i even scumread them (for that matter, let me UNVOTE: ).
idk why it'd be related to me d2 reads post, since i said there that i didn't even get to isoing them.

As for your (way too much) color post 1116:

per green color, I didn't actually look into that, I will though. Addressing Purple; Orange; Pink: Yes theory is Malediction has both factional kill and publishing cop, my basis being Rauth's posts. Looking back at Orange I didn't explain myself well enough.

The point was that Rauth even assuming that Malediction had a similar situation means the mod gave him no reason to assume differently and no reason to think Factions weren't symmetric; It seems to me he's quite well informed about what his faction's goals are and thus malediction's as well.

Pink ties into orange a bit. Either both factions have non-standard kills (which we can rule out) or both have standard kills via my previous point. Rauth mentioned "killing" directly. Even if he used a different word or set or words to say "We are not applying our killing power to the IC" the point remains that he's telling Malediction to target the IC so they would be free to do something else. If it Bene/Mal had even/odd night kills this would have been redundant as well.

why can't he make a wrong assumption? he even admitted it was an assumption and he didn't know for sure.
i feel like you're purposely ignoring parts of his posts to push a narrative.

[Flavor Leaf]

and maybe the 3 has a Bus Drive ability or something instead.

[Flavor Leaf]

I'd also like to add that as scum my N2 result of no one visiting me would have been pretty risky considering Hugir / Ice to claim targets behind me.

If you're lying about Voyeur itself.

If you're ScumVoyeur, it's super safe.

[IceDragon70]

It's possible ActionD and Aisa were bus driven or something Night 1.

To me, the only possible culprit is still Hugir, no? Unless it's a factional busdrive?

You know what, it's getting really late but I have an idea. I saw your speculation of 2-3-8, and now I want to just post all possibilities I can see for scum abilities and we'll see if it leads somewhere.
But I'll do that tomorrow since it's freaking late.

[Flavor Leaf]

Unfortunately, I don't think that's ai for them. We could try flashwagoning them though if you want to.

I agree it is null, but right now I think both the alternatives are more likely to be town than a shot in the dark. And there is the theory that when multiple replacements happen, they are

slightly

more likely to be scum, because knowing you lost a partner can be demoralizing. Yes, I admit that is weak.

I'm setting my clock to wake me before the deadline, should I need to change my vote.

UNVOTE: IceDragon70
VOTE: KawaiiKame

*SNIP*

Is this game predicated on finding what faction is the town faction? I like you saying that only one informed minority was actually compatible with town, does an uninformed minority potentially exist/does only an uninformed majority exist? I like this post a lot, an informed minority compatible with town ending up being a threat to town is highly useful info, same with Rauth feeling uninformed thus most likely town.

I like this post a lot this deep analysis feels town to me.

Uhh... what...?

Seriously, I was not analyzing anything with this post. I was just sharing an anecdote from years ago, and its only relevance was how rare it is to have non-town factions that can win with town.

A few hours until deadline and you start a new wagon?

WTF is this.

VOTE: Rauth

Fine with Dragon as well, but not sure Feysal is on about.

-Drew

I can't shake Feysal scum. I think the Flyer could be something like a pseudo investigative for scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

In short, I've lost faith in either alternative wagon being on scum. I know the odds of this going anywhere are slim at best. I will be here before the deadline to change my vote if needed.

There is a lot to track here and I'm going over it with a fine tune comb. I'm going to start with Feysal's rauth vote (since undone later) and reasons.

Here the speculation whether Benediction was regular scum went on rather too long, and it occurs to me that Benediction would have a vested interest in getting us to believe they were not a threat. And for that, Rautherdir was largely responsible for.

... Rautherdir, who suspected Enchant of scumslipping for their belief Benediction would be scum.

Wait a minute... how does one simultaneously theorize Benediction being benign, and suspect someone of slipping they were not?

I think this is more or less the essence of the points against Rauth aside from the their scumhunting abilities which really didn't exist for a while and the questionable impetus behind the claim all of which still holds.

1) did Rauth go on about the possibility of Benediction being special in some way as benign for far too long? Definitely so. There are many posts which were interactions on the topic with others so I don't fault that entirely but there are also plenty of extraneous ones too though which are complete filler. The following would be examples 81 and 82, 87-89, 123, 137, somehow still a thing in 185... 214 I'm being generous. The fact that I was able to create this absurd list of posts is a but a taste of how speculatively exhausting Rauth's posts during this time period are, not limited to this one topic. Think claims (their own and the miller), Musings about the IC role even if not serious. Is all this scummy? I can't help but think yes. at some point there has to be some self-awareness of posting something like say 239 and maybe thinking along the lines of "well have I been doing a good job being my best townie self?" and just realizing no definitely not lol.

2) Took a second to think about if the accusation about Enchant potentially being scum because he implied green was scum as a scumslip is possible in the same headspace as bringing up the possibility that benediction is benign. That in itself is fine. The proposed slip at the time was that town couldn't be sure benediction was scum thus Enchant rolling with a fake green scum claim was not town. That narrowly works. I mean that would also imply everyone who thought that way was slipping but poor enchant was the first to publicly hard assume green scum are in fact scum. And Theres the other problem with that entire interaction, it deserves its own section:

Hmm. To be honest I was baiting to see who would agree with my stance or not, thus why I kept mentioning it as a possibility throughout the day. As mentioned Benediction would probably jump onto something like that as a chance to be town... so after reading through again (Unfortunately not everyone has commented on it, was hoping a bit more time would offer that but nope.)

I've reread all the early parts of the ISO. And I don't believe this; that is I think this is a straight up lie. Note this comes after votes on the wagon plus posts 356, 418 and 424; aside from the last two being very salient points and good posts about the situation I mention them also because they created pressure whereby what I quoted from Rauth above came into being as a way to try to undercut the points in them. Why do I not believe that what I quoted from Rauth above? Well simply posts like the discussion around enchants "scumslip" would never come into being , the point would have never carried water. so you wouldn't see 45, 53, 60!, 136!!

I don't think I could say anything one way or the other that would overshadow the above paragraph so I'm pretty set now.

UNVOTE: Ice
VOTE: Rauth

I think Feysal was trying to move people off of Rauth, and AD pushed it over the edge, so they joined back.

[Flavor Leaf]

Abnegation, Furt, Action Dan for Red scum with Bus Drive factional ability, Feysal/Rauth with Green Scum Factional Kill?