Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[GuyInFreezer]

Oh and there's also the chance that Black and PB are scum together. Assuming they are scum and they can get town roped today and get a kill through tonight, then Black can claim to have passed it along to someone who claims something else already and that gets a "mislim" tomorrow as well, and then another night kill ... I believe that would be LYLO, assuming 4 scum.

I'm pretty busy at work today ... would appreciate responses.

For what it's worth ... what Black and PB just did is the kind of play that appeals to me as scum. Make the town think I'm conftown (or very nearly so) and run the table.

Occam’s razor etc

Did you really just try to say "Occam's Razor" in response to me pointing out that it could be a (very good, if so) scum gambit? If we consider them conftown and then do what people naturally do and follow their lead, they literally get a free pass to LYLO from this claim.

Yes I said occam’s razor
Is it possible that it’s a scum gambit? Yes.
Is it likely that it’s a scum gambit? Hell no

[Klick]

You are saying here that you find most meta analysis to be pretty poor across the board. I didn't get any of that vibe from you at all in response to pink balls case. You called it the best thing that had been posted in the thread so far I think. If your view of meta is that one should be skeptical of meta and that many applications of it are bad, I would have expected to see some of that cropping up in how you approached the meta case on dragoneater. But it didn't you just called it great and voted for it right away and it seemed to be the basis for your entire read on dragoneater on day 1.

Are you really telling me you don't see dissonance between those two positions?

I did not think Pink Ball's usage of meta was bad. I thought it was very good. Personal tells, different across games, correlation based on alignment. I didn't fact-check the case but the theory was everything that a meta read needs to be.

I can understand how you could have a problem with me stating general skepticism with how most people use meta but then not question Pink Ball's use of meta. The reason Pink Ball's case was different was because he didn't do any of the stuff that is usually done with bad meta cases. Most importantly, he was looking for something behavioural from the person he was analysing that would actually indicate that the player was scum and had justification for believing this game fell strongly into the scum category.

[Save The Dragons]

I mean I suppose I could be confbiased

But it feels like you attacked FA yesterday and backed off when FA towntold and then attacked Titus today and then backed off when there was no traction and then attacked dunn and then backed off when there was neither traction and they towntold. Because you went through some slots, slots like FA and I went down a little bit. It seems like it could be something that might happen to scum picking targets they don't want to follow through with? I guess

[Frozen Angel]

Oh and there's also the chance that Black and PB are scum together. Assuming they are scum and they can get town roped today and get a kill through tonight, then Black can claim to have passed it along to someone who claims something else already and that gets a "mislim" tomorrow as well, and then another night kill ... I believe that would be LYLO, assuming 4 scum.

I'm pretty busy at work today ... would appreciate responses.

For what it's worth ... what Black and PB just did is the kind of play that appeals to me as scum. Make the town think I'm conftown (or very nearly so) and run the table.

Occam’s razor etc

Did you really just try to say "Occam's Razor" in response to me pointing out that it could be a (very good, if so) scum gambit? If we consider them conftown and then do what people naturally do and follow their lead, they literally get a free pass to LYLO from this claim.

Yes I said occam’s razor
Is it possible that it’s a scum gambit? Yes.
Is it likely that it’s a scum gambit? Hell no

this is actually a logical fallacy. You cant decide its likelihood from your perspective.

Think vice versa, if they/one of them are scum then its 100% a scum gambit of a sort
if they are town then they are telling the truth.

so without knowing their alignment you cant decide which is more likelier cause this is a conditional likelihood. you cant just assume people are telling the truth before applying occam's razor. that doesn't work like that.

[Klick]

I'm very happy to vote Titus today but if there's no traction I don't think forcing it through is in my skillset

If I'm pushing people to get votes on them then I'm doing an exceptionally poor job of it
But I think it should be easy to identify that I have zero confidence as either alignment to genuinely push a group of people towards what I want to happen in a game of Mafia, unless I'm really confident that the thing I am pushing is in fact the truth

Your characterisation of me is a scum who is just relentlessly finding possible targets but that doesn't really match with either my personality or the supposed goals of scum!Klick

[Klick]

Anyway I'm going to take Titus' advice and go play League to avoid tilt

[Save The Dragons]

It may not be your personality but could certainly match a scum klick agenda

[Frozen Angel]

occams razor applies when two different scenarios without conditions exist that one is likelier than the other. Then you should accept the most likely scenario as the case (this is also with considerations like how town number is more than scum number so all likelihoods are skewed toward town tells). But you can't assume people are town before applying occam razor

[Save The Dragons]

Fa where's your head at

[Klick]

I don't see why a theoretical scum!Klick chooses to repeatedly push a bunch of weak leads and then give up on them after getting predictably towny-looking content from each of them

[Save The Dragons]

I don't think it was that predictable unless you know they are town ahead of time

[Klick]

a bunch of weak leads

To clarify: 'weak' in the sense that no one would sheep the reasoning I used for pushing any of FA/Titus/Dunn as scum

[Frozen Angel]

Fa where's your head at

I wanna reread GIF, klick, black and PB. I'm super uncomfortable with how pb and black are acting like each other are conftown and I think GIF is not really showing a hunting spirit.

+ I have some notes about day 1 but I need to actually spend time to sort my thoughts.

so give me 24 hours more

[Frozen Angel]

Klick why were you townreading dragon eater again in day 1? Like you explicitly dropped a town read on the slot repeatedly. can you elaborate how your read on him developed through the day?

[Klick]

I don't think it was that predictable unless you know they are town ahead of time

Which is what we're assuming with what you've said your read on my play is
You said you thought I was continually looking for people to call scum and push
Unless you think I've been bussing?

[Klick]

Klick why were you townreading dragon eater again in day 1? Like you explicitly dropped a town read on the slot repeatedly. can you elaborate how your read on him developed through the day?

I'll discuss this later, I've been responding here for some time now and would like a break

[Pink Ball]

Klick, what's your read on StD?

[Pink Ball]

Oh sorry just saw the post above. No rush

[T-Bone]

Spoiler: Scene 17

The Movie

The camera opens to an elaborate stage set in the grand opera house, with a full orchestra warming up in the pit. The stage is set for a performance of La Traviata.

The lights dim and the curtain rises to reveal the stage set for the opening scene of the opera. The audience watches enraptured as the singers take their places and begin to perform.

Suddenly, the lights flicker and the music screeches to a halt. The audience gasps as they hear the sound of a gunshot.

From the wings, a group of armed men storm onto the stage, shouting and waving their guns. They make their way to the front of the stage where the lead soprano is standing frozen in fear.

One of the men steps forward and addresses the audience. It is the infamous gang leader, known only as "The Boss". He announces that he has taken over the opera house and demands a ransom for the safe release of the performers and the audience.

The audience is stunned into silence as they watch the drama unfolding before them. Suddenly, one of the performers, a mezzo-soprano, steps forward and begins to sing.

Her voice is clear and strong, and the music swells as she sings of hope and resistance in the face of adversity. The other performers and the audience join in, their voices blending together in a powerful chorus.

The Boss and his men are momentarily taken aback by the unexpected display of unity and defiance. But they quickly recover and aim their guns at the performers.

Just as the situation seems hopeless, the doors of the opera house burst open and a group of unlikely heroes charge in. Among them are the Detective, the Mechanic, and the Janitor from earlier in the movie.

They engage in a fierce battle with The Boss and his men, exchanging punches and gunfire. The audience and performers are caught in the crossfire, ducking and screaming for cover.

The battle rages on until finally, The Boss is defeated and the heroes emerge victorious. The performers and audience are safe, and the heroes take their final bow as the curtain falls.

The crowd erupts into thunderous applause, and the performers begin to sing once more, this time in celebration and triumph.

As the opera unfolds on stage, The Voice sits in a darkened control room, monitoring the situation through a bank of security cameras. With a satisfied smirk, they watch as the various characters play out their roles, completely oblivious to the danger that lurks just beyond the stage.

Suddenly, The Voice's phone rings, jolting them out of their reverie. They answer it, and a distorted voice on the other end informs them that there's been a breach in the perimeter. The Voice curses under their breath, realizing that one of their security systems must have been compromised.

Quickly, they jump into action, barking orders to their team of henchmen over the intercom. They scramble to fortify the building, setting up barricades and activating various traps and defenses to deter any intruders.

Despite the chaos, The Voice remains calm and focused, determined to protect their plans at all costs. As the opera reaches its climax, The Voice watches intently, knowing that the fate of their entire operation hangs in the balance.

Vote Count

Klick - 5

(Ircher, Black, Titus, Thestatusquo, Save The Dragons)

Titus - 1

(Drixx)

Not Voting - 7

(Dunnstral, Firebringer, Frozen Angel, GuyInFreezer, Klick, Kuribo, Pink Ball)

With 13 Alive, It Takes 7 to Eliminate

Activity Check:

All good!

Deadline: (expired on 2023-05-05 21:00:00)

[Save The Dragons]

I don't think it was that predictable unless you know they are town ahead of time

Which is what we're assuming with what you've said your read on my play is
You said you thought I was continually looking for people to call scum and push
Unless you think I've been bussing?

I dunno if this tracks but maybe I'm dumb.

I sr you for other reasons so I'm not uncomfortable to keep my vote on you for the time being

[Save The Dragons]

Though I guess I put you at e-2

[GuyInFreezer]

idk what you’re talking about assuming alignment before application.

They’re either telling the truth or not telling the truth.

If they are not telling the truth, then they are either faking the existence of the role or they’re buddies with the real role that they are pretending that it worked.

Faking the existence of the role is very unlikely when they both know that they can’t blame things on rng forever. Visionary is there to fuck with that too and Jingle would’ve caught onto that before scum PB-Black pulls stuff like this.

Given that they both showed lack of coordination on that crumb thingy earlier, both pretending that the role is working as scum is also unlikely. Plus Black asked Titus on same thing before asking PB about the same thing.

So both possible reasons for them lying is unlikely. Then what is likely? Them telling the truth.

[GuyInFreezer]

And I’m saying this after having scumread Black until that happened.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't see why a theoretical scum!Klick chooses to repeatedly push a bunch of weak leads and then give up on them after getting predictably towny-looking content from each of them

what? You're saying that you are aware that this is what you frequently do as town, so like is the claim here that you don't try to replicate that in your scum game at all?

I don't really believe that?

At a minimum I would expect that you at least try to make your town games and scum games look similar, so I don't know how you could possibly not know what the theoretical benefit is?

[Frozen Angel]

idk what you’re talking about assuming alignment before application.

They’re either telling the truth or not telling the truth.

If they are not telling the truth, then they are either faking the existence of the role or they’re buddies with the real role that they are pretending that it worked.

Faking the existence of the role is very unlikely when they both know that they can’t blame things on rng forever. Visionary is there to fuck with that too and Jingle would’ve caught onto that before scum PB-Black pulls stuff like this.

Given that they both showed lack of coordination on that crumb thingy earlier, both pretending that the role is working as scum is also unlikely. Plus Black asked Titus on same thing before asking PB about the same thing.

So both possible reasons for them lying is unlikely. Then what is likely? Them telling the truth.

we know scum also get the roles they just don't get powers. so how can we be sure one of them isn't scum? or both arent scum and the role is entirely not fake? both are possible scenarios

you cant say its unlikely for them to be scum cause they claimed same role.

but I do agree that they don't seem coordinated so its either both town or one scum IMO too. That still wont make your occams razor not a logical fallacy. they can be town or scum and neither case is more likelier.