Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[Thestatusquo]

I don't get why you're asking me that, I don't think you really care.

But on the off chance you actually do I find VCA to be more likely to be wrong than right at the best of times, mostly from my experience that scum simply do not behave like people think they're going to with their votes and peoples assumptions about who is or is not town in the unflipped slots is even more frequently wrong.

Day 2 with barely any flips being done by someone I think is scum is not "the best of times"

[kuribo]

Firebringer scum reading me when I scum read me is cute but I kinda think its what town him would do.

The real question is is he self aware enough to know that and duplicate it.

Probably, I guess.

This wagon talk is exactly why I'm extremely dubious of VCA as a general rule. Klick's analysis is predicated on him being town which I think is a pretty dubious assumption.

I dislike VCA in general just because 1- I've watched Titus' VCA "catch" me as scum at least once when I was town, ane 2- when I've been scum I've actively manipulated vote counts anyway

[Klick]

I don't get why you're asking me that, I don't think you really care.

But on the off chance you actually do I find VCA to be more likely to be wrong than right at the best of times, mostly from my experience that scum simply do not behave like people think they're going to with their votes and peoples assumptions about who is or is not town in the unflipped slots is even more frequently wrong.

Day 2 with barely any flips being done by someone I think is scum is not "the best of times"

How do you think the scumteam would want to play around the DragonEater wagon yesterday?

[Thestatusquo]

I don't get why you're asking me that, I don't think you really care.

But on the off chance you actually do I find VCA to be more likely to be wrong than right at the best of times, mostly from my experience that scum simply do not behave like people think they're going to with their votes and peoples assumptions about who is or is not town in the unflipped slots is even more frequently wrong.

Day 2 with barely any flips being done by someone I think is scum is not "the best of times"

How do you think the scumteam would want to play around the DragonEater wagon yesterday?

I think the scum team didn't have to play around the dragoneater wagon and they could have done literally whatever they wanted.

The only person seriously arguing against it was me. GIF was against it too but was basically not around.

[Thestatusquo]

I think there's tons of different ways to look townie on wagons with that much thread momentum, and scum could have done any of them.

[Dunnstral]

I think the scum team didn't have to play around the dragoneater wagon and they could have done literally whatever they wanted.

Is this not what Klick was saying?

[GuyInFreezer]

Firebringer scum reading me when I scum read me is cute but I kinda think its what town him would do.

The real question is is he self aware enough to know that and duplicate it.

Probably, I guess.

This wagon talk is exactly why I'm extremely dubious of VCA as a general rule. Klick's analysis is predicated on him being town which I think is a pretty dubious assumption.

I dislike VCA in general just because 1- I've watched Titus' VCA "catch" me as scum at least once when I was town, ane 2- when I've been scum I've actively manipulated vote counts anyway

Unfortunately there aren’t 15 Kuribos in the game. Although ngl that would be something to watch. Kuribo now, Kuribo 1 year ago, and all the up to Kuribo 14 years ago.

[kuribo]

I think the scum team didn't have to play around the dragoneater wagon and they could have done literally whatever they wanted.

Is this not what Klick was saying?

No, Klick seems to be saying that scum was on the other wagons and then decided to abstain from the DE wagon, which just happens to line up nicely with the people pushing him now

[kuribo]

Lining up nicely is me being facetious btw, I'm referring to the confirmation bias

[kuribo]

Firebringer scum reading me when I scum read me is cute but I kinda think its what town him would do.

The real question is is he self aware enough to know that and duplicate it.

Probably, I guess.

This wagon talk is exactly why I'm extremely dubious of VCA as a general rule. Klick's analysis is predicated on him being town which I think is a pretty dubious assumption.

I dislike VCA in general just because 1- I've watched Titus' VCA "catch" me as scum at least once when I was town, ane 2- when I've been scum I've actively manipulated vote counts anyway

Unfortunately there aren’t 15 Kuribos in the game. Although ngl that would be something to watch. Kuribo now, Kuribo 1 year ago, and all the up to Kuribo 14 years ago.

I'd fucking hate that and at least twelve of us would end up ragequitting

[Thestatusquo]

I guess if you put a gun to my head I'd say that the most likely place for scum to be was right about where you were but if you notice I haven't really mentioned that except in the context of me thinking your inconsistency with meta is scummy, because I fundamentally don't think its an important point of analysis. I think you could have been scum jumping on the wagon, but also I have seen town do exactly what you did with the wagon many times.

I just don't think its a worthwhile thing to analyze and leads to way too many false negatives and positives. So I'd rather stick to real scum hunting.

Idk if we've played before but this has been my take on VCA for like...a decade now since nuwen and I used to fight about it.

It reminds me of like...forensic psuedo science like bite mark analysis and cadaver dogs and the like. I don't like engaging with it.

[Black]

The only person seriously arguing against it was me. GIF was against it too but was basically not around.

Did you just forget about me? I was pretty vocally against the DE wagon

[Black]

Not really relevant at all but I don't like being forgotten about

[Thestatusquo]

Like why would the scum team want to be "off" the dragoneater wagon? There's been roughly zero game pressure today based around the people who voted dragoneater and where they voted him. This is entirely predictable, this happens all the time. The idea that people get scum points for being on a town wagon d1 especially one which is backed by huge thread momentum is a practically a myth.

Why would the scum want to be "on" the dragoneater wagon? The dragoneater wagon always felt inevitable to me regardless of what I said about it, no one was listening to me about it the whole day (I have to say except kuribo or he'll mald) Scum don't need to drive wagons like that. They're gunna happen regardless so there's not a particular incentive to be on it.

So like my answer is that its essentially random and based on individualized playstyle. I assume you're a player who frequently does VCA which is why you're doing it here so I don't think its like scummy or something that you are doing it but I just don't buy any of what is being sold here. The set of asssumptions that people make to try to understand scum behavior towards wagons is often nonsensical.

Sorry Titus, although I am pretty sure she and I have had this exact same conversation before.

[Klick]

I just don't think its a worthwhile thing to analyze and leads to way too many false negatives and positives. So I'd rather stick to real scum hunting.

Idk if we've played before but this has been my take on VCA for like...a decade now since nuwen and I used to fight about it.

It reminds me of like...forensic psuedo science like bite mark analysis and cadaver dogs and the like. I don't like engaging with it.

I had very similar thoughts regarding the 'general scummy behaviour vs context-based solving' conversation we had earlier. The actual problem that I have with generalising about an objective 'scummy behaviour' is that it's usually not nearly reliable enough and produces false positives and negatives.

[Thestatusquo]

Not really relevant at all but I don't like being forgotten about

I would never.

[GuyInFreezer]

Like why would the scum team want to be "off" the dragoneater wagon? There's been roughly zero game pressure today based around the people who voted dragoneater and where they voted him. This is entirely predictable, this happens all the time. The idea that people get scum points for being on a town wagon d1 especially one which is backed by huge thread momentum is a practically a myth.

Why would the scum want to be "on" the dragoneater wagon? The dragoneater wagon always felt inevitable to me regardless of what I said about it, no one was listening to me about it the whole day (I have to say except kuribo or he'll mald) Scum don't need to drive wagons like that. They're gunna happen regardless so there's not a particular incentive to be on it.

So like my answer is that its essentially random and based on individualized playstyle. I assume you're a player who frequently does VCA which is why you're doing it here so I don't think its like scummy or something that you are doing it but I just don't buy any of what is being sold here. The set of asssumptions that people make to try to understand scum behavior towards wagons is often nonsensical.

Sorry Titus, although I am pretty sure she and I have had this exact same conversation before.

How about the part where VCA players doing things that would mess with the VCA

[Thestatusquo]

Firebringer scum reading me when I scum read me is cute but I kinda think its what town him would do.

The real question is is he self aware enough to know that and duplicate it.

Probably, I guess.

This wagon talk is exactly why I'm extremely dubious of VCA as a general rule. Klick's analysis is predicated on him being town which I think is a pretty dubious assumption.

I dislike VCA in general just because 1- I've watched Titus' VCA "catch" me as scum at least once when I was town, ane 2- when I've been scum I've actively manipulated vote counts anyway

Unfortunately there aren’t 15 Kuribos in the game. Although ngl that would be something to watch. Kuribo now, Kuribo 1 year ago, and all the up to Kuribo 14 years ago.

I'd fucking hate that and at least twelve of us would end up ragequitting

which ones would stay though.

[GuyInFreezer]

The ones that rolled scum of course

[Thestatusquo]

Like why would the scum team want to be "off" the dragoneater wagon? There's been roughly zero game pressure today based around the people who voted dragoneater and where they voted him. This is entirely predictable, this happens all the time. The idea that people get scum points for being on a town wagon d1 especially one which is backed by huge thread momentum is a practically a myth.

Why would the scum want to be "on" the dragoneater wagon? The dragoneater wagon always felt inevitable to me regardless of what I said about it, no one was listening to me about it the whole day (I have to say except kuribo or he'll mald) Scum don't need to drive wagons like that. They're gunna happen regardless so there's not a particular incentive to be on it.

So like my answer is that its essentially random and based on individualized playstyle. I assume you're a player who frequently does VCA which is why you're doing it here so I don't think its like scummy or something that you are doing it but I just don't buy any of what is being sold here. The set of asssumptions that people make to try to understand scum behavior towards wagons is often nonsensical.

Sorry Titus, although I am pretty sure she and I have had this exact same conversation before.

How about the part where VCA players doing things that would mess with the VCA

Yeah I saw this accusation but I didn't really have time to internalize it. Can you explain it to me like I'm 5.

As someone who doesn't really think the conclusions of VCA are correct usually I haven't put a lot of thought into how one might "mess" with it.

[Klick]

So like my answer is that its essentially random and based on individualized playstyle. I assume you're a player who frequently does VCA which is why you're doing it here so I don't think its like scummy or something that you are doing it but I just don't buy any of what is being sold here. The set of asssumptions that people make to try to understand scum behavior towards wagons is often nonsensical.

The thing is I agree with a lot of aspects of this take more than you think
I think most VCA is executed very poorly and doesn't have merit
This is a conversation Alisae and I had right before Team Mafia started, e can verify this take
I extend that line of thinking to most forms of traditional scumhunting, general tells, etc. I think most things that most people find scummy have no real basis in what is actually alignment-indicative and is not much better than guessing. That's not really a dig on anyone in particular, I think that's just how most people tend to approach the game of Mafia.

What I do think has merit is behavioural tells, applying context of the personalities and general behaviour of the players in the game you're playing and the context of the game being played. I think that has the potential to be highly accurate if done properly.

I care less about the literal positioning of the votes. I think most VCA is approached that way and it's not a very good approach. What I am interested in is what the scumteam in this game is thinking, what they tried to do yesterday, considering we know DragonEater was voted up and was town. There is a team of scum in this game that played in a certain way in response to that wagon, and if we can figure out how they chose to do that, we can find out who they are.

[GuyInFreezer]

Well VCA assumes that each votes are with specific purpose, right? Why would someone who plays around with VCA forfeit a valueable piece of information by hammering a townread? It’s not like we were being pushed to hammer. We had like day and a half left when Titus hammered.

[Thestatusquo]

I think if I were scum yesterday my read on the dragoneater wagon would have been that it was going to happen almost regardless of what I did and that it almost wouldn't matter what I did in response to it and therefore I would have just gone about my usual try to replicate my town game try to make scum reads based off of things I would actually find scummy as town etc.

I do not think the dragoneater wagon would have been a significant driver of my behavior or my thought process. If I found him scummy I would have joined. If I found him townie I would have defended.

I know not everyone plays mafia like I do but I think most strong scum players tend to.

[Thestatusquo]

Well VCA assumes that each votes are with specific purpose, right? Why would someone who plays around with VCA forfeit a valueable piece of information by hammering a townread? It’s not like we were being pushed to hammer. We had like day and a half left when Titus hammered.

Ok but why would scum titus do that? Do you think she would have been worried the hammer wouldn't happen? Wouldn't she prefer town to hammer to give her things to attack them with later?

What I'm missing is the link between behavior and motivation here.

[kuribo]

Firebringer scum reading me when I scum read me is cute but I kinda think its what town him would do.

The real question is is he self aware enough to know that and duplicate it.

Probably, I guess.

This wagon talk is exactly why I'm extremely dubious of VCA as a general rule. Klick's analysis is predicated on him being town which I think is a pretty dubious assumption.

I dislike VCA in general just because 1- I've watched Titus' VCA "catch" me as scum at least once when I was town, ane 2- when I've been scum I've actively manipulated vote counts anyway

Unfortunately there aren’t 15 Kuribos in the game. Although ngl that would be something to watch. Kuribo now, Kuribo 1 year ago, and all the up to Kuribo 14 years ago.

I'd fucking hate that and at least twelve of us would end up ragequitting

which ones would stay though.

Kuribo circa 2007 - 2009 were pretty chill and had a policy of never replacing out. Kuribo 2010 and 2022 didn't play at all. Present day Kuribo would probably stay. 2011-2015 are the maniacs, 2015-2021 are firmly in the ragequitting almost immediately group.