Mini Normal 2298 - Game Over!

[Cephrir]

oh andante isnt clear

ceph why did you say like 'town!andante in elo' blabla?

lol i knew someone would try this

im just townreading her

[Cephrir]

watch, it's andante/elpis and i'm honorary scum

[Cephrir]

actually im already honorary scum i pushed both mislims like my life depended on it

[Cephrir]

Sure, will do.
Thanks for letting me know i haven't been responsive in the scum pt. I am not very good with that sometimes. You can always @me here to let me know to post there.

I think Save The Dragons is the least looking townie of the neighbors. Therefore he is the best vote. I very conflicting feelings on Norwee right now. I also think Ethel very townie.

I think StD and Norwee should be hunting each other here and kind of shocked they aren't openly doing so. Last time they were in neighborhood one was town and other scum. Yet it doesn't feel like they are at all worried about one of them being scum or town. I find that odd.

someone in a hood is almost certainly scum

my choices are:
Norwee/StD/Ethel

i guess i go with
VOTE: Save the Dragons

idk feel they are all varrying degrees of townie.

are they just nightkilling people who are wrong because everyone is wrong

[Cephrir]

ethel gave every indication of wanting to kill std. why is she dead

[Cephrir]

i wish i trusted any of you

[Cephrir]

i see, they removed ethel so i would lose my mind

[Cephrir]

there is exactly one person who is responsible for the speed of d3

[Cephrir]

We should still nolim

[Cephrir]

Well I was wondering which of Ethel and elpis was marinating me~

I am blowing this game in so many ways.

Is marinating different to pocketing? I haven't heard the term before.

I was borrowing the term from among us but basically same thing

[Cephrir]

Oh yeah I was kinda sorta following that game c:

[Cephrir]

Ethel is a surprising kill yeah. It makes me think I have something deeply wrong

But maybe they rolecopped her or something

[Cephrir]

Yes it certainly does feel like this is unlikely to end well

[Cephrir]

wanna know what gimli and ceph think about lim vs no lim

we're no limming

[Cephrir]

that's not an opinion, it's a fact

[Cephrir]

i mean because it was super obvious and it doesn't really matter if scum know about neighbors

[Cephrir]

i mean because it was super obvious and it doesn't really matter if scum know about neighbors

How so?

...what do you think scum are going to do with the information that there are neighbors

[Cephrir]

i mean because it was super obvious and it doesn't really matter if scum know about neighbors

How so?

...what do you think scum are going to do with the information that there are neighbors

I would think that they'd use the information to kill a power role.

neighbor is not a power role

[Cephrir]

all they can do is talk to each other -- that's not actually particularly useful

[Cephrir]

important note

Spoiler:

doggy

[Cephrir]

I dunno if I see merlyn's posts as massive effort or anything it's just a fine catch-up

I'll probably do more work solving tomorrow rather than relying on my general impressions of the game

[Cephrir]

marquis brilliantly staying in the shadows and away from any significant wagons right beneath our noses by literally not posting at all

master plan, true genius

[Cephrir]

VOTE: no lim

[Cephrir]

What in the 17 layers of fuck

[Cephrir]

I'm never solving this.

[Cephrir]

We should use the Klick elo strat

Or just roll over and give up, honestly

[Cephrir]

I have a fun idea let's keep pitching cephrir as scum somehow despite him trying to prevent neighbor based scumhunting

[Cephrir]

I know it's you elpis

I'll never be able to prove it, but I know it

[Cephrir]

We should use the Klick elo strat

Or just roll over and give up, honestly

what is the klick elo strat

We pick someone were confident in being town as a consensus and let them lead. There's a mafia discussion thread about it

[Cephrir]

I know it's you elpis

I'll never be able to prove it, but I know it

Cephy I was so sure you were town but now I'm having severe doubts because why else would you shift blame to me immediately when it seems so clear that one of them has to be scum between Andante or Merlyn, or MAYBE Marquis but I'd feel a bit cheated if that were the case honestly.

Oh no I'm right

This is so sad

[Cephrir]

I think it's elpis and andante literally just because they both should have been nightkilled by now and I have nothing to back that up at all but I'll try to actually solve the game later and I will probably end up letting them win because I can't bring myself to just vote my gut when all reason tells me it should be the other two

[Cephrir]

Besides the other two both suspect me anyway lol the odds of that group finding each other as town if that's what's happening is like none

[Cephrir]

Yes I think it's the best way forward if we have a townread we feel confident about

I don't have a read like that right now but maybe I can get there with some review

I'm effectively VLA until tuesday

[Cephrir]

Also we should probably all claim

[Cephrir]

Yes I think it's the best way forward if we have a townread we feel confident about

I don't have a read like that right now but maybe I can get there with some review

I'm effectively VLA until tuesday

You're my choice for townread to sheep

Oh no pressure

[Cephrir]

How did you get to townreading me, it didn't seem like you were yesterday

[Cephrir]

Even if we elect me as supreme overlord I would like to hear everyones pitches

[Cephrir]

we can spend this time analyzing the rest of the game

[Cephrir]

Also did you want to claim

[Cephrir]

I don't care if yall want to do this "klick thing" or whatever, but I'm voting who I want, I hate how we just started the day and merlyn/elpis are basically like "let's give ceph our votes!!" and that's that... like yall?? more concerned about tossing your vote to someone else than voicing your actual reads?

Please consider that if two players do decide to give their votes to me then the only thing you can possibly accomplish by voting elsewhere is losing the game if you're town

[Cephrir]

@Merlyn/Elpis
rather than "I wanna give my vote to X" do yall have any actual thoughts here or nah?

@Ceph, can you remind me what your early TR on Marquis was for?

I don't even remember anymore. I'm pretty far from trusting them at this stage

[Cephrir]

Well unfortunately no one claimed PR. Unfortunate

I am so embarrassed by what I'm about to tell you. I genuinely considered lying as town and claiming VT if I couldn't make it happen last night but it seems like maybe some players do trust me so I'll come out with it and you can point and laugh at me now rather than post game

I'm a loyal bodyguard. The world's worst bodyguard.
My targets have been:
Marquis - I thought about holstering here since I figured I was meant to save an outed PR, but with one of the roles I figured I was meant to save dead and myself not particularly townread, I decided trying to die would be better
Elpis
Andante
Andante

And now I want to bury my head in the sand. I have a few sorta crumbs to point out if anyone cares and yesterday I crumbed that I was going to target andante (d3 ended too fast but I was planning to crumb it then too)

Friends I have been trying so hard to die. But atp it's confirmed I have protected scum at least once so that's great. Probably more than once!

The bizarreness of the kills makes me wonder if scum knew there was a protective out there or something

Anyway now you know my shame and frustration

[Cephrir]

Well I was wondering which of Ethel and elpis was marinating me~

I am blowing this game in so many ways.

Crumb that I'm failing at night as well as day play

Ceph did you roll scum

no and you're not getting me mislimmed this game so don't try

TPR crumb

watch, it's andante/elpis and i'm honorary scum

Not really a crumb but it likely makes more sense now

wanna know what gimli and ceph think about lim vs no lim

we're no limming

that's not an opinion, it's a fact

I was adamant about this because I wanted one more chance to die and potentially semiclear someone

important note

Spoiler:

doggy

Crumb that I'm targeting andante

[Cephrir]

Yeah I'm having trouble with gimli's hammer d3 too

But I need to reevaluate the whole game so I don't want to get ahead of myself

[Cephrir]

Also: your chances of 3 townies getting a 50/50 right are less than the chances of them getting one 50/50 right and that person then getting it right also

[Cephrir]

I have a readslist, but I don't want to share it if we're no eliming- I'm hoping that one of two people I just can't see being partners will end up biting it.

I support a no elim- we're in dire straights here, and one less person to pick from benefits town.

VOTE: no elimination

This post, Can I hear more on these 2 people?

Yeah, I can't see Elpis and Cephrir being partners.

Why were you hoping one of us would be killed?

[Cephrir]

I'm not sure I follow how that helps you sort the survivor. Seems to me it would be more helpful to you if we both lived since you can then eliminate one possible pairing

[Cephrir]

I wonder if there's any merit to trying to solve the whole game at once here

I hate doing that (preflipping) but perhaps it makes sense in the situation

Doesn't really work as well if one scum is marquis but

[Cephrir]

If you're worried about having no guidance tomorrow I could try to call both shots

I don't love my odds there

Alternatively we can just accept that maybe you get to 3p that way and have to figure it out but that danger exists equally if you play it normally so shrug?

[Cephrir]

is it seriously 4 days fuck me

[Cephrir]

i might not be able to get away from voting marquis slot just because losing to it would be so embarrassing

[Cephrir]

fwiw im not really interested in the kerfuffle right now -- atp you both have the same goal of surviving no matter what your alignment is so im really more interested in analysis of existing content than new content

[Cephrir]

ah yes, I can give analysis on scummy gimli stuff, that gimli can't explain, and merlyn will sit here and go " ah yes! so scummy, but gimli was town"

i mean, it's not merlyn's response that is relevant there, it's whether you can convince me/elpis/whoever

[Cephrir]

Ya if you have energy merlyn I think figuring out who is scum would be more useful than trying to defend

[Cephrir]

Andante I feel like you started at the conclusion so of course you saw scum there. Not saying that makes you scum or even wrong, just tunnelled

[Cephrir]

my perspective is ive had strong townreads on andante and elpis for most of the game but im now second guessing myself, mainly due to the bizarre norwe kill

[Cephrir]

I'm unsure yet how townie Norwee was perceived (what I gather is that he wasn't as townie as some alive?) but I do not think that Elpis would choose to kill him. If not for it being WIFOM for the love of WIFOM, I do not think that Elpis' posts reflect well onto that world. 1869 isn't something that you write if you have at that point the intents to kill the person you're suspecting, and sharing suspicions to. It feels genuine, as does their posting today.

While it may be an act of convenience to say "I don't really know who to vote, it could be this pair, or that pair", paraphrased from posts like 1902 and 1903, it feels like real confusion.

i would have put money on norwe as today's most likely elimination

[Cephrir]

my perspective is ive had strong townreads on andante and elpis for most of the game but im now second guessing myself, mainly due to the bizarre norwe kill

Cephrir! I understand that the game came to a standstill for a while so it may have been hard to give effort to solving without a necessary voice, but! Could you please tell me your game view now beyond second-guessing?

It is worrying me that you’re playing this as you are, and by that it feels as if things are hands off! I am worried that you could be doing this intentionally with two people willing to follow you, and that you could be waiting for a point where people throw up their hands and say please pick someone, and if you are mafia… game over!!

Even if this is not the case and you are town I would like to know!!

I am planning to do some more work on solving the game, I just haven't had time yet

[Cephrir]

does a psychologist and two half vigs seem like enough town power to you

personally i feel like it could use another, shitty role, like say a bodyguard

[Cephrir]

I mean the more you’re like “I’m clear cause my role”

you say this like it's a claim i've made more than literally just once just now

[Cephrir]

and that could explain the ethel death pretty well… ethel shoots scum protected by bg, ethel died, scum killed dragons, just saying.

this is not what a bodyguard does

[Cephrir]

uh oh i started the isos and am having no thoughts head empty

[Cephrir]

297 is a bit of a strange post for me, the game is pretty young and mostly shitposting here so i don't really understand why he would be demoralized
but idk i guess it's consistent with his posting dropping off and his prior few posts being attempts at seriousness


309 was bizarre at the time and i think i probably posted as much at the time. maybe too obviously bizarre to be scum (oh no i'm making a stack of waffles here we gooooo)

hm i thought i had a solid townread on bob before andante showed up but i don't see why now

i think i'll just post this post and see if i can make the next one better rather than burden it with this trash

[Cephrir]

i tried to examine notmafia's scum meta to try to read his interaction with andante here but i think i've realized i'm wasting my time

[Cephrir]

495 - oh, that's why he didn't vote. this should have been obvious to me


514 - i am inclined to think this interaction is not a scumbuddy interaction. interested in others' thoughts here.

maybe i should try some cursory andante meta and see if i can tell the difference. she makes so many posts tho i can't see myself doing the kind of reading it would take to do it properly. im garbo at intentional meta like this anyway tho i guess im just looking for a significant vibe difference

[Cephrir]

i dont know this is too hard

[Cephrir]

ill just call in my evil twin to solve this with vca or something

[Cephrir]

what if i just sheeped dead town

[Cephrir]

me reading other games: haha mafia is so easy
me trying to solve games i'm in: aaaaaaahhhhh

[Cephrir]

gimli opening d2 with "woe is me i voted someone i didn't think was scum" and then lolhammering later is certainly a series of events

[Cephrir]

i really don't regret misyeeting enchant even when i saw he was a vig.
Letting enchant live with vig was never good

Maybe I could've died tho. Which is probably all I'm good for atp

oh hey another crumb

[Cephrir]

1113 - this question to gimli seems like genuine confusion... i had elpis/gimli slot as my leading theory going into this post, but i don't know that elpis would call her partner out like this. going to the scum pt to clear it up seems to me to make a lot more sense

[Cephrir]

i will simply compute a weighted average of dead town's reads giving more weight to players who were nightkilled by scum and who survived longer (i probably will not do this)

[Cephrir]

the neighbor spec people are pretty much all flipped town huh.

that's disappointing

[Cephrir]

i hear random.org is poppin this time of year

[Cephrir]

i think everyone who suspected me today should maybe be mailed to the sun im so town

[Cephrir]

i think there's virtually no chance it's andante & elpis off these day 2 interactions eg 1169


1262 is kind of an interesting post in light of our current knowledge that gimli/elpis/marquis was absolutely not 3 townies and in fact was imo probably two scum


1328
-this gimli townread seems... really really flimsy, no?
-remarkably certain about NM, but i guess they haven't seen him before
-this marquis townread (1330) also seems really flimsy. if you forgot your scumbuddy on purpose, props

atp ive concluded that andante is town and i'm just trying to find the team in the remaining places it can be

[Cephrir]

im fine conceding to an andante/elpis scumteam they're absolute gods if it's them

[Cephrir]

no matter who scum is they are putting out pools of T/T/T teams all game =_=

[Cephrir]

495 - oh, that's why he didn't vote. this should have been obvious to me

514 - i am inclined to think this interaction is not a scumbuddy interaction. interested in others' thoughts here.

maybe i should try some cursory andante meta and see if i can tell the difference. she makes so many posts tho i can't see myself doing the kind of reading it would take to do it properly. im garbo at intentional meta like this anyway tho i guess im just looking for a significant vibe difference

Why do you think that 514 is not a mafia/mafia interaction?

hm. i think it wasn't something she was playing up. also nm's call to get andante to e-1 so he can hammer seems like too far to push a distancing interaction so qwuickly

[Cephrir]

yeah I'm not voting out norwee today/tomorrow (whenever we lim)

finally something that makes the norwe kill make even the slightest amount of sense

[Cephrir]

i cannot help but think that your overuse of exclamation points is an alt schtick

i think im done for now, might look at dead town later

[Cephrir]

i cannot help but think that your overuse of exclamation points is an alt schtick

i think im done for now, might look at dead town later

I find it! Rather comforting to type like this, but if it is annoying I will try to stop!

it's fine

[Cephrir]

lol this feels like you set off on the mission that I was scum then tried to find whatever to prove it... I know I'll do that sometimes when I get tunneld, but bruhhh half that "case" is literally just SRing me for being me? if you're going that much at me for how I play, you might just want to go skim past games of mine

i agree with this fwiw, it felt to me like they were fitting evidence to the conclusion "the scumteam is adnante and merlyn" rather than organically generating it

Like for example, at the moment, by knowing Cephrir is towny, and having some decent confidence in Peregrine's entrance, I am tightening my view focus to have more scrutiny on Merlyn and Andante for the moment.

im not sure i love how quickly you two seem to have arrived on the same page!

yeah I'm not voting out norwee today/tomorrow (whenever we lim)

finally something that makes the norwe kill make even the slightest amount of sense

Just making sure-- the takeaway here is that norwe was killed because scum was under the impression that they would not be able to get them voted out?

I don't know if that makes a lot of sense, since there was a lot of suspicion on them already, if not just from me. I likely would've planted a vote there and not moved it without some big convincing, so it just seems like an unlikely rationale.

i mean there's at least some possibility something different could have happened

idk my only other possible conclusion is that both scum were paying no attention to the game whatsoever which would make them the replaced slots

[Cephrir]

Cephy, you have ruled out me being partners with Andante, and Gimli. You obviously know we are not partners, so how valid do you see me being partners with Marquis/Peregrine? I ask because if you don't see it as valid, then we'd have shared townreads, and could probably cooperate a bit better on trying to find partners in the others.

i wouldn't say i've fully ruled out you/gimli, i just found a point against it

[Cephrir]

mmmm marquis was still in the game last nighttttt

[Cephrir]

im town and im very unlikely to vote andante today so if she's in your solve, find another way or make a different argument

[Cephrir]

the ATE is mighty ;_;

[Cephrir]

i'm leaning towards peregrine honestly

[Cephrir]

mostly because of stuff that doesn't have anything to do with peregrine themselves

[Cephrir]

I guess I can try to produce thoughts another human could understand

Or

I could wait and see if the votes cross 2 2 and then I can do whatever I want with no accountability

[Cephrir]

It's no more dangerous than the situation were already in but yes

The situation I am anticipating is one where you and peregrine vote for merlyn while merlyn and andante vote for peregrine

If that does not end the game, I will know for fact what I already believe to be true-- that the scum are andante/merlyn, you/peregrine or merlyn/peregrine

[Cephrir]

not necessarily, i wouldn't mind if that happened on its own magically but... i know it's not particularly smart for me to sit on my hands here

[Cephrir]

andante do you still want more time before we proceed here

[Cephrir]

Emotions are hard

Idk I re isod merlyn recently and it made me feel good about my suspicion of peregrine by comparison, she's had town moments

Idk that I thought this most recent one from peregrine was as amazing as you seem to think it is!

[Cephrir]

Im not gonna lie I like the fact that I probably get to die tonight if we get one here

[Cephrir]

(braces for quickhammer)

[Cephrir]

The suspense is killing me cuz I really do kinda think it's elpis and peregrine hahahahahajdjdbdj

[Cephrir]

Be afraid scum, andante is the fastest unvoter in the west

Pedit aaaa

[Cephrir]

I scared. How confident are you in that ceph?

Not, heh

[Cephrir]

Look I'm no mafia god if this is what you want to roll with them... At least I can stop stressing about the game if we're wrong

[Cephrir]

I think... I mean I trust Peregrine, Cephy. I'd like to know why you don't think their posts are towny, but I am really under the impression that they joined in as town. There's a lot of discomfort and anxiety in their posting that feels genuine. I would be really surprised if scum acted so tentative while panicked and trying to make the right choice. If they're scum, they're doing an amazing job, but I trust them.

Why can't scum be uncomfortable and anxious?

[Cephrir]

lmaoo ceph... I'm scared. both elpis and peregrine are like "I'm here on phone!!" like what??

I know I'm scared too

You're not tryina keep me in your pocket by matching my emotions right :v

Nah

[Cephrir]

Hmmm. Can we clear that team yet. Would they just be sitting here not doing it

[Cephrir]

Cephies be malding

[Cephrir]

No hammer here

[Cephrir]

UNVOTE:

I think we can vote. Merlyn appears to be confirmed scum at this point

[Cephrir]

VOTE: merlyn

Good luck tomorrow

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Merlyn

Eek

[Cephrir]

Did we lose

[Cephrir]

Well played if so I was never ever getting that

[Cephrir]

Mald city

[Cephrir]

Wow

Yeah I don't feel too bad about that

[Cephrir]

Good game sorry friends

I was just never getting andante in ten thousand years and clearly the scumteam took advantage of that

[Cephrir]

Damn I thought you had a rolecop for sure