Normal 2302: Magical Girls | GAME OVER

[OopsieDaisy]

also OD, if you are town, you and I are the biggest posters in this game....most likely we will not see end game. Im pretty sure I wont.

maybe not late late game, but we're making ourselves useful right now and that's what matters

[OopsieDaisy]

Why vote you? Are you trying to get me to stop voting STD? he is my biggest read atm.

Kinda yea, I also think STD is scum but leaving STD alive means our vigilante survives another night or STD is p much outed evil and we have a more certain vote.

I prioritise an extra vig shot over voting out STD today. Simple as. Just gives us more town-decided kills in the game.

[OopsieDaisy]

I'm aware StD is likely to flip scum and obvs with my switch off Elements + now my attempt to pull us away from StD for today, it does just make me look bad if StD flips scum, but I don't really care about looking good/bad I care about making the best plays for town, and quite frankly the position scum would be in tonight if StD survives is very tricky for them regardless of his alignment.

[geraintm]

why do people value a vig shot so highly?

this is a time though where others are better at this game than me and i just dont get the common wisdom

[geraintm]

Ugh I'm sorry. Been busy with survivor meet prepping and work is hectic as well so I can't do what I normally do which is play at work

I'm a novice doctor.

You knew you were a likely elimination today, and you wait till now to make this claim.

when do you think I good time to make the claim would have been?

not sure, but right before they disappear for 5 days wasnt it.

so generally if someone is VLA, they should just claim before they go? I am asking specifically for STD. WHEN would have been the right time to claim?..and lets throw in a "why?" too.

no, but i am pretty sure there was a wagon on them and they must have realised they ran the risk of being run up and a claim being needed, and especially with a "role" that was going to cause nothing but annoyance.
if they were town, they should have done better than just make that claim with zero crumbs to it.
that is just scandoulously bad town behaviour.

[OopsieDaisy]

I don't think we're in the world where scum both have a rber and StD is town, so the worst case scenario I see is that we vote out town today, emperor and his shot both flip town in the night, and then we kill StD tomorrow and we hit scum. Alongside the mafia kill happening the night afterwards, that leaves us with 1 mafia in 5, with all the info that those flips will give us. As far as worst case goes that looks p dang good to me.

[towwl]

why do people value a vig shot so highly?

this is a time though where others are better at this game than me and i just dont get the common wisdom

scum kill the towniest players, town kills the scummiest players, so if we make it to Elo we'll be left with the three most so-so players. A vig shot lets us kill more scummy players than scum can kill townie players, so the chance of us even making it to Elo is lower and if even we do make it to Elo there's a greater chance of their being basically conftown people still alive, making Elo much easier for town to make it through.

Basically vig shots are generally good even if they hit green because they accelerate how fast we narrow down the PoE, which scum kills don't really do because they target people towny people.

[towwl]

well a DGB kill gets us little to no information (other than me not thinking we should kill her). an STD flip (either way) provides a ton of information.

What does a green STD flip give us other than -1 doctor? A red flip doesn't even give us that much because I feel like we're basically operating under the understanding that STD is most likely to flip red regardless of what happens in these next couple of days. A red flip on STD wouldn't really change how I view the game anyways. DGB is a wildcard right now and the buildup of her wagon and her flip I think would be more valuable.

towwl, your thoughts on OD and sheep deferring to you?

OD I don't mind too much because we've been on a similar wavelength most of this game and she's been contributing plenty this D2. Sheep on the other hand I'd like to see more from other than just agreeing with me. No real urgency there though since he's VLA and I'm not interested in sheep becoming the center of attention today. Worth putting a pin in for now at the very least.

If I'm going to be town leader today though I will direct my subjects to convince the rest of town to vote for one of DGB, MT, or FB today so I don't need to put in that much work, thank you.

[OopsieDaisy]

If I'm going to be town leader today though I will direct my subjects to convince the rest of town to vote for one of DGB, MT, or FB today so I don't need to put in that much work, thank you.

On it boss

[towwl]

MY case on DGB really just boils down to PoE at this point. I'm town, emp is town, ckd has gotta be town, oopsies surely town, sheep seems very town, I feel like gera is town. STD is probably scum, but I'm giving him a pass for now, so then there's at least 1 more in FB/DGB/MT. Firebringer is probably going to die N2 anyways, so then we look at MT and DGB and MT just has a lot of posts that make me think she is town, so I feel best putting a vote down on DGB since I have the least reason to townread her over anybody else I'd be interested in being the yeet today.

[geraintm]

MY case on DGB really just boils down to PoE at this point. I'm town, emp is town, ckd has gotta be town, oopsies surely town, sheep seems very town, I feel like gera is town. STD is probably scum, but I'm giving him a pass for now, so then there's at least 1 more in FB/DGB/MT. Firebringer is probably going to die N2 anyways, so then we look at MT and DGB and MT just has a lot of posts that make me think she is town, so I feel best putting a vote down on DGB since I have the least reason to townread her over anybody else I'd be interested in being the yeet today.

as long as Firebringer is the agreed Vig, then i will follow the plan to DGB

[Firebringer]

I will never elim DGB
She is my spirit animal

[towwl]

MY case on DGB really just boils down to PoE at this point. I'm town, emp is town, ckd has gotta be town, oopsies surely town, sheep seems very town, I feel like gera is town. STD is probably scum, but I'm giving him a pass for now, so then there's at least 1 more in FB/DGB/MT. Firebringer is probably going to die N2 anyways, so then we look at MT and DGB and MT just has a lot of posts that make me think she is town, so I feel best putting a vote down on DGB since I have the least reason to townread her over anybody else I'd be interested in being the yeet today.

as long as Firebringer is the agreed Vig, then i will follow the plan to DGB

So that's me and Daisy on DGB right now, sheep says he'll sheep me today, you are open to DGB, and I feel like Emperor would join us(?). That's 5, need one more.

Firebringer won't vote DGB. Our sixth would need to be from either Tweet or ckd. @Tweet,ckd, is this doable today or a non-starter?

[towwl]

Or maybe STD could even join us, how about it STD?

[curiouskarmadog]

or we can kill scum versus trying to work with them.

[geraintm]

or we can kill scum versus trying to work with them.

There doesn't seem to be the desire to do that.
But I am.not going to go anywhere else

[geraintm]

Besides those 2

[towwl]

or we can kill scum versus trying to work with them.

If you were open to a DGB vote there'd be no need for it!

[curiouskarmadog]

or we can kill scum versus trying to work with them.

If you were open to a DGB vote there'd be no need for it!

this is a silly statement.

[curiouskarmadog]

What if I said, while I was reading StD's other mafia threads, I saw him state he tends to lurk when he plays scum. Which is what he has done this game (not counting current situation). In comparison to his other current games where is was constantly posting AND the game I just finished with him when he was town?

[curiouskarmadog]

by mafia threads, I mean scum PTs

[towwl]

We are in total agreement that STD is most likely to flip scum. I just don't think we should vote for him today.

And to be clear I'd still be fine with an STD yeet at the end of the day if we're not able to get a majority on DGB. I think either way town is on a pretty likely path to victory, I just think we have a higher % chance if we yeet DGB today instead.

[curiouskarmadog]

also going to post this, so everyone doesnt have to dig.

mafia love to do some hand waving with statements like below. if gives them a way to "like" or "not like" someone without really having to explain.

elements still has that "big scum energy" coming into the game but i think they've mellowed out a bit. im still kind of confused as to whether this is AI based on previous experience.

I call him on it.

elements still has that "big scum energy" coming into the game but i think they've mellowed out a bit. im still kind of confused as to whether this is AI based on previous experience.

i think the making up reads to get discussion going is pretty out there for scum. i feel scum would be more careful and not try to draw attention to themselves by blatantly lying about reads. i know this sounds counterintuitive but i don't think elements is caught in a lie, i think they did a goofy play because they feel comfortable. apart from the "big scum energy" elements does seem rather relaxed. i don't know how comfortable they are playing scum though.

i'm not super keen on wagoning elements now as i think they'll become clearer in time and there's other slots i feel are far worse, like Merlyn/FB, hu tao, and bristep. maybe efn too.

what was that big scum energy they had then? by relax do you mean not post or scum hunt?

seems like you are making a bunch of excuses for them.


first they lied.

It wasnt to get something started...they thought I was town, then said I was scummy. I asked why and they gave fake reasoning.

ONLY after I caught them, did they back track.

to get me off their back, Elements then said I was town.

NOW I am scum again, because I am tunneling (even though they dont really know because they didnt read my catch up post).

for the record, that "big scum energy" is gone now? At what point, do you think that scum energy dissipated?

He doesnt really answer the question (because it is bullshit)...so he changes tactics.

do you really think scum are going to get caught in the easiest lie i've ever seen be posted on mafiascum

it just seems like trolling is more likely

I dont let me get away with the hand waving comment.

do you really think scum are going to get caught in the easiest lie i've ever seen be posted on mafiascum

it just seems like trolling is more likely

But it wasnt trolling.

also in regards to that big scum energy....

what about now?

he comes back with

i think elements's energy did change from being more bombastic to a little more focused around the time they start pushing hu tao

these are just words though. it doesnt explain WHY he felt bombastic is scummy, or why focused is town. Hes played a lot of mafia. He knows being bombastic is not scummy (see the last game I was in with him) and being focused as nothing to do with being town. ALSO, Elements WAS not focused here. They werent providing cases and was just jumping on wagons. This is a load of shit.

I wish I had followed up on this. I at the time got busy, then it was the claimfest that occurred yesterday so this got lost.

StD not only changed his vote at a pivotal time, but his explanations of why Elements big scum energy disappeared was just...well false.

Also....and this isnt part of my case...but stuck in my crawl.

i was wrong about elements :<

i know it doesn't look great

but i genuinely didn't know

im kind of busy today but i'll try to post any thoughts i have

bolded is just weird phrasing. Im an investigator in real life.....when someone keeps saying "Honestly, I blah blah blah", it means they are being dishonest about something else. We ALL "genuinely" dont know. Why add this? This is a stretch....BUT it stuck out to me.

but like Elements...when I got scum in my teeth...it is hard for me to let go.

[OopsieDaisy]

No one thinks StD is town (I think), that's not what we're arguing. We just don't need to flip the slot now cause we get more certainty on that read after tonight's actions.

[OopsieDaisy]

The only world in which I can see myself not voting out StD tomorrow is the world where the only kill in the night is the vig shot. You can hold me to this Karma