Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Doctor Drew]

this is my 5555th mafia scum post

n00b

[Radical Rat]

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

Everything is context dependent but on the whole i disagree with this

How would you define "scummy" if not as "like scum?"

[Merlyn]

Merlyn, granting arguendo that that qualifies as a push on towwl, what do you like about that push?

I like that it's on someone I found scummy

Did you also like that it was a blatant OMGUS with reasoning after the fact and that there was literally no follow through?

I'm okay with a little OMGUSing actually, sometimes the person voting you is actually scum. As for follow through...I take the 'hmm...ok, new vote' as finding the answer okay, and moving on for now, but not being fully satisfied. I think it's pro town to seek to push more folks in D1 rather than tunnelling.

[osuka]

A signal also has to be visible to work though, like. I guess you saw it as a signal, so if you're in the other scum pair, mission accomplished, but I think if you're trying to send a message like that, and you don't know who the other scum are, you're not going to want to frame it as an accusation of a third party.

Maybe if the accusation in question were some super weird thing, or maybe if the one being accused is the intended recipient of the signal, this could be more plausible, but like. Look at the logic in play here.

1. Invisibility has to interpret Black voting Firebringer as Black being scum. This seems like a large leap to make already, especially since Firebringer could be scum also/instead.

2. Invisibility has to believe Black will be looking for signals from the other Mafia. This is a reasonable expectation, no issues here.

3. Invisibility has to believe Black will ignore the context of the vote and accusation of Firebringer and focus only on the specific phrasing of "I am the scum." The problem here is that it looks way too much like an accusation Town would reasonably make, and if Invisibility gets unlucky and Firebringer is scum, with or without Black, this could actually PROVOKE a kill instead, which... defeats the whole purpose of signaling.

So, there is precisely one scenario where I think this kind of signal MIGHT make sense, and that's if one of the pairs is Firebringer/Invisibility. In this scenario, Invisibility has exclusive knowledge of Firebringer's alignment and vice versa, so there's no need to fear accidentally provoking a kill, and it's possible to interpret the attempted message to be "Leave Firebringer alone, he's on our side," but then that doesn't really gel with the way Invisibility seems to be properly on board with it. Which could theoretically be faked of course, but if it is believed too much by either Town or the other Mafia, it's basically suicidal to attempt this level of shenanigans.

TL;DR: Either Invisibility's on some 5D Chess shit, or you're reading way too much into this

setting aside the fact that it took WAY too much effort to even parse this post, either i'm misunderstanding or it just doesn't make any sense. right off the bat - if you're scum and you picked up on what you think is a signal from another team, why the fuck would you point that out in the public thread? that's moronic.

are you saying that because the "signal" came from firebringer, that then black would have to be scum if she voted that slot and THAT was the signal? deranged

[osuka]

mechtalk is always such a bore, especially in multiball, and especially when it's d1 theorycrafting. d1 should be reserved for flashwagons and premature readslists and

cyberbullying

mood

[osuka]

i feel obligated to point out that mech talk is nai

[osuka]

I feel like Drew's read on me and Black is the kind of moon logic someone would most likely only come to if they had no context of roles

This is an open setup though, we all have context of roles.

probably better way to phrase it is knowledge of what roles people are since scum would know one other person's role. I think Doctor Drew does genuinely believe I was signaling and if he was the other scums then he probably wouldn't push me over it. Well actually yes he would cuz that's probably an indicator of "getting it". Oh. Ok nevermind my logic makes no sense

????????????????????

[osuka]

ok wait nvm my logic does make sense I remembered what I meant. In this scenario scum!Drew knows for a fact if there's at least one scum in this scenario (his partner) or there's two townies (well I guess from his POV there we could be partners but I think Drew does genuinely believe there's a signal regardless of alignment). In all those scenarios scum!Drew would know this wasn't actually a signal and would probably be less inclined to make a leap of logic so I think he is being genuine here. I guess there's also the scenario where scum!Drew is trying to respond to my signal so I guess that's a thing but also him harping on specifically my thing makes that theory kinda murky since it puts me in danger (I guess he could still be thinking that it isn't actually going to put me in danger because people have already expressed disapproval of looking for signals to scumhunt but that's nearing tinfoil territory so I'm not gonna put too much weight into that possibility)

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

that reads like you're rambling and it makes negative sense

[osuka]

the mafia is using 5G signals to control the town

this was the only good invis post in page 16

[osuka]

i should clarify; what im talking about isnt really mechtalk, its what typically takes mechtalk's place in a not-especially-mechanically-heavy setup, and thats very subjective theorycrafting discussed in a very objective sense about what to expect from each alignment in a given setup. its almost always distracting, annoying, self-indulgent at best and scum-motivated at worst. this kind of d1 discussion typically starts with scum in my experience and usually succeeds in distracting town discussions from real scumhunting.

Except I'm not theory crafting either. I'm saying Ausuak did X. I think scum wants to do X. Therefore I think Ausuka is >rand to be scum.

If you're legitimately saying you think that people who say that they think it is more likely for scum to point out things they think are scummy, then I don't really know what to tell you. Because that's dumb as shit.

saying that people who say that they think it is more likely for scum to point out things they think are scummy really is dumb as shit

but then so is the first half of that post, so you know, what the fuck do i know

[osuka]

i should also point out that it's not at all what the bulge was saying in 388. read it again, and then keep reading it until you understand it

[osuka]

holy shit either my brain is fried and i desperately need sleep, or half of you can't put together a sentence to save your fucking lives, huh? this entire thread hurts to read

anyway, i kinda buy firebringer's case on bingle at first glance but i'm not gonna vote there because i have no idea where the count is at

[osuka]

See, what I find most interesting with this is that Drew specifically attached to your post as being a signal, which out of all the posts I think could have maybe looked like signals (I won't be pointing them out so as not to influence possible scum perceptions; ask me after we get one pair down), yours is probably among the least likely, at least to my eyes.

To me, the reading is that Drew picked something he thought he could sell as being a signal rather than something he genuinely believed was.

I don't get your angle here, you agree that they might be signalling....but you disagree on which post/posts have the signals, which is fair.....and that makes me scum?

Like I believe you were suspicious of Towel(correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed like you were ready to vote my slot before I did anything) so I can understand if the suspicions are still there when I rep in, but kinda feels like you are just reaching for a reason to keep scum reading me, starting to feel less genuine now to me.

I am referring to posts from people who are not Invisibility. Essentially, I believe that if you're serious about calling out signaling, there are others with stronger cases you're ignoring, possibly because you find them believable. I'm choosing not to point those out yet, but I'll be happy to once one scum pair is dead.

Invisibility's post is not super likely to be a genuine signal, as I've outlined earlier, but her using the phrasing she did gave you an angle to push it as one.

I'll admit you're right about me having a bias from towwl's posting, but you haven't really done anything to make me doubt that read yet.

I feel signalling is the big scum tell here on D1, I also feel Invis made what I believe is the most believable(and easy to explain away) signal that I saw. Sure, maybe I missed another or I am reading too much into this.....but just what I believe.

You saying you saw some signals, and not saying what you saw......and only revealing them after one scum pair is dead.......and your timing of your vote on me, and the fitting the argument to match the conclusion......is what makes me feel you are not genuine. You just feel you can get the mis elim on me and are fine with that.

I believe that scum likely has attempted and/or will attempt to identify themselves to other scum. I also believe Town should be paying attention and looking for that too.

However, I don't really think that should be what we're focusing on when pushing people, because it's kind of helping the scum teams find each other if we point out all the instances where there might be signals. In the event that we're right about something being a signal, that doesn't really matter, but if we're wrong, or just not convincing enough, litigating these potential signals is just going to help scum sort through them.

Instead, I think the best way to handle this is to scumhunt normally first, then after a Mafia pair is dead, we go back through and see if they made any attempts to signal out, and look for who might have been attempting to respond, or vice versa.

I don't anticipate everyone to agree with me on that, but the way you've been making this push feels like it's coming in bad faith to me. Contrast with Bingle's push on Ausuka, which I also disagree with, but can at least see where Bingle's coming from.

this is the first post in the thread that actually makes any sort of sense and it's well-written enough that i understood all of it on the first try. great jorb!

i think talking about signals is way too abstract right now so as to be completely pointless. what i don't actually agree with is that we have to wait after a mafia _pair_ is dead - that sounds nitpicky but i think we should be taking that slot's interactions apart as soon as there's a red flip even more than usual here because of the necessity of signaling. that's necessity, as opposed to incentive, like you'd have in a traitor game - if you never find the traitor that's sort of okay-ish, but if you don't have a clue who the other mafia pair is by the end of day 1, you're sort of fucked

[Radical Rat]

A signal also has to be visible to work though, like. I guess you saw it as a signal, so if you're in the other scum pair, mission accomplished, but I think if you're trying to send a message like that, and you don't know who the other scum are, you're not going to want to frame it as an accusation of a third party.

Maybe if the accusation in question were some super weird thing, or maybe if the one being accused is the intended recipient of the signal, this could be more plausible, but like. Look at the logic in play here.

1. Invisibility has to interpret Black voting Firebringer as Black being scum. This seems like a large leap to make already, especially since Firebringer could be scum also/instead.

2. Invisibility has to believe Black will be looking for signals from the other Mafia. This is a reasonable expectation, no issues here.

3. Invisibility has to believe Black will ignore the context of the vote and accusation of Firebringer and focus only on the specific phrasing of "I am the scum." The problem here is that it looks way too much like an accusation Town would reasonably make, and if Invisibility gets unlucky and Firebringer is scum, with or without Black, this could actually PROVOKE a kill instead, which... defeats the whole purpose of signaling.

So, there is precisely one scenario where I think this kind of signal MIGHT make sense, and that's if one of the pairs is Firebringer/Invisibility. In this scenario, Invisibility has exclusive knowledge of Firebringer's alignment and vice versa, so there's no need to fear accidentally provoking a kill, and it's possible to interpret the attempted message to be "Leave Firebringer alone, he's on our side," but then that doesn't really gel with the way Invisibility seems to be properly on board with it. Which could theoretically be faked of course, but if it is believed too much by either Town or the other Mafia, it's basically suicidal to attempt this level of shenanigans.

TL;DR: Either Invisibility's on some 5D Chess shit, or you're reading way too much into this

setting aside the fact that it took WAY too much effort to even parse this post, either i'm misunderstanding or it just doesn't make any sense. right off the bat - if you're scum and you picked up on what you think is a signal from another team, why the fuck would you point that out in the public thread? that's moronic.

are you saying that because the "signal" came from firebringer, that then black would have to be scum if she voted that slot and THAT was the signal? deranged

Sorry, I do have a tendency to be overly verbose, but you are indeed misunderstanding.

I'm saying that I don't think it makes any sense for Invisibility's post to be a signal, nothing about Firebringer or Black signaling each other.

Basically, I don't believe Drew really believes it's a signal either and is pushing in bad faith, but if he is Town, he's probably very wrong.

[Radical Rat]

Mafia are lovers.

There is never going to be a single red flip, only pairs.

[Ausuka]

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

Everything is context dependent but on the whole i disagree with this

How would you define "scummy" if not as "like scum?"

Things that a lot people consider scummy

[Ausuka]

in this context at least

Idk i didn't think it was worded *that* badly, black seemed to understand what i was trying to say

[Meuh]

VOTE: Ausuka

I want to help Bingle's cause here. I don't really think she was signaling tbh, and my first impression from Ausuka's posts was that she felt confident in what she was saying. Initially I liked this but after reading over her ISO the confidence reads little scummy to me. Part of this has to do with me personally being more confident when I'm scum, and I know I can't really accurately apply that to other people but I want to push this gut feeling and this wagon anyway

Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town -> Ausuka joins game -> rolls town -> gets into 1v1 early on in day 1 -> OMGUSes the other player in the 1v1 -> gets scumread for confidence and for her behaviour in those interactions -> eventually flips -> flips town ->

[Meuh]

At least one scum on Ausuka, scum loveeeeee jumping on the classic day 1 Ausuka wagon (which I would know because I have)

[Datisi]

vote count 1.08

with 15 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2023-06-28 17:00:00).

yeet

Bingle [4]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, Invisibility, The Bulge

Ausuka [4]:

Bingle, Umlaut, Black, Doctor Drew

Doctor Drew [3]:

Radical Rat, osuka, Merlyn

Cook [1]:

Bellaphant

Merlyn [1]:

Meuh

not voting [2]:

Skygazer, Cook

mod notes

this is a mod note.

flavour

[Datisi]

prodding Bellaphant, The Bulge, Cook, and Skygazer.

[Ausuka]

[Bingle]

At least one scum on Ausuka, scum loveeeeee jumping on the classic day 1 Ausuka wagon (which I would know because I have)

Who is it and why?

[Bingle]

i should also point out that it's not at all what the bulge was saying in 388. read it again, and then keep reading it until you understand it

There are two options: either the bulge is voting me for something I’m not doing or the bulge is pushing something colossally stupid. I acknowledge both options there.

[Invisibility]

VOTE: Ausuka

I want to help Bingle's cause here. I don't really think she was signaling tbh, and my first impression from Ausuka's posts was that she felt confident in what she was saying. Initially I liked this but after reading over her ISO the confidence reads little scummy to me. Part of this has to do with me personally being more confident when I'm scum, and I know I can't really accurately apply that to other people but I want to push this gut feeling and this wagon anyway

I do not like the reasoning for this vote

I think scum want to publicly town hunt this game. Like moreso than usual because I feel like the scum teams probably want to coordinate with each other as far as knocking off townies. The problem is townies are going to do this too because it's what townies do. So it might be hard to pinpoint where the noise is coming from but I think we can at least feel good about scum helping town sort

this feels like fluff which is a thing that is probably still scummy in this setup
VOTE: Black