Micro 1087 | It's normal | It's over!

[bloodhail]

I don't like voting in elo
Don't want to get it wrong

Tbh i also don't know what i'm waiting for or what conclusion i'm expecting to be different so i probably just should

I just don'r want to have the game-ending vote if i'm wrong >.>

man i thought myself in a circle and im back where i started maybe i should just leave the thinking to shiki

are you two actually fucking mafia together? you've spent days calling each other lock scum and laying out extensive reasons for the other being scum and yet when the possibility comes to cross vote you keep chickening out. Did you actually believe anything you said about the other or was it all performative to look unaligned? Are you too scared to bus each other?

it just seems so improbable to me and also

i absolutely did not try to get her to vote pooky or for pooky to vote her

yeah

just mmmmmm

i don't think it's improbable at all, based on my late night paranoia a few hours ago. if anything when i reread looking for that, it seemed quite possible. when i reread it felt like neither actually wanted to kill the other.

and as for the second bit - well, i hadn't done that at that moment in time. obviously you could say that i'm doing that now and i wouldn't dispute that. however, i want to emphasize - if i am mafia, the game is won for me if i get one to vote each other, but it can happen either today or tomorrow. i do not need to protect T3, i bus the shit out of him because him existing is an immense liability to any scumteam. in my first game on this account i threw him under the bus on day 1 because his play jeopardized the entire team, and i leveraged that to protect the rest of my teammates

this is kind of - when i first joined the game i was taking it easy because although i think skitter is mafia and you disagree with me, it seemed possible there would be support for votes on her anyway. and if not, getting votes on T3 wouldn't be hard. but last night I was struck with the vision of a true hellworld game, and that terrifies me. i have a lot more to say to you, but it's going to take me a while to write it.

[medeia]

an

- t3 is just so scummy tho >.>
- his comments last night are just all over the place i think his conclusion is that i was scum which is .... ? based on prior comments

yeah and i guess that i am your partner? but it's just so ???

- i don't know why he's ofd the table (i'm kinda wondering if pooky is trying to incite a 1v1 with me to distract from t3 -> he can maybe win the 1v1 with me but if our attention goes back to t3 why don't we just flip him)

i still feel like bloodhail trying to incite that too but anti-associative stuff

[medeia]

i don't think it's improbable at all, based on my late night paranoia a few hours ago.

idk they spent like 7 days of a 10 day day phase where we were going to sleep doing ~this

[medeia]

like to what end? entertaining themselves?

[medeia]

and as for the second bit - well, i hadn't done that at that moment in time. obviously you could say that i'm doing that now and i wouldn't dispute that. however, i want to emphasize - if i am mafia, the game is won for me if i get one to vote each other, but it can happen either today or tomorrow. i do not need to protect T3, i bus the shit out of him because him existing is an immense liability to any scumteam. in my first game on this account i threw him under the bus on day 1 because his play jeopardized the entire team, and i leveraged that to protect the rest of my teammates

this is kind of - when i first joined the game i was taking it easy because although i think skitter is mafia and you disagree with me, it seemed possible there would be support for votes on her anyway. and if not, getting votes on T3 wouldn't be hard. but last night I was struck with the vision of a true hellworld game, and that terrifies me. i have a lot more to say to you, but it's going to take me a while to write it.

i shouldn't have quoted that bit specifically as i wasn't trying to imply you 'lied' because future actions didn't match past comments or whatever sorry

it's just like, bussing t3 and then playing another whole day where you're not even guaranteed or anything vs simply going for the win here with hours on the clock while you could also fallback to that later like if it doesn't work you can still just eliminate t3 play tomorrow, yeah?

and i know you're up for the challenge but also you believe enough to just go for things like that

[medeia]

like if the scum team really is medea/skitter theres no good nightkill for the two of you to make at 6

like what r u going to do? shoot T3 or me? lol

if i really squint tho

[bloodhail]

okay, so, medeia.

first things first, i think you are town. i still haven't read your full ISO, but off the first page i think you come across as genuinely solving the game, concerned with analyzing people's motivations and trying to figure them out. you've come across as

genuinely

paranoid in our conversations since i replaced in, and also had some subtle towny moments that i don't think most scum would fake. if you snowed me, good job, i will gladly lose to you.

i think you are very, very pocketed by skitter. skitter has deep pockets - it's why she's so good as mafia. i haven't been trying to convince you that you are pocketed because convincing someone they are pocketed is probably one of the hardest things in mafia. it's god tier difficulty, i don't think i've ever succeeded at it. it takes more persuasive skill than i have. i think your reasons for townreading her, from what i have seen, are not that good. i think skitter confidently townreading you all game is how she pockets people - i have seen it many times before.

the thing is, i know skitter is mafia, and skitter knows i know she is mafia (trust me on this), yet she does not seem especially concerned with this. i have to ask myself - why is this? why is she hemming and hawing about voting pooky? i think in a world where skitter is mafia and pooky is town, she still has a pretty significant chance of getting you to vote with her and winning that 1v1. but doing so would also force you to re-evaluate since it would disrupt your worldview that me/t3 is the team.

when it comes to pooky - my initial view was that he was town, you can see in how i reacted to his vote on me. i thought for a while he was exhibiting real paranoia here and his case on skitter was pretty good. his reactions to skitter kind of looked townie to me. however - his posting last night felt very

off

to me, and i got concerned. i think the best way i can put it is, his response to when i got upset at him voting me looked like he was acclimating himself to my worldview a little too readily. him getting flaky and paranoid didn't make a lot of sense to me - he had posted such a strong case on skitter and her push on him felt so hollow. and now suddenly they're both angling to vote t3 here, and i have to ask myself, what is going on here? and so i did a quick re-examinition, and his pushes through the game for the most part have had underwhelming logic - the case on skitter is the only time he's had real strong analysis. and it's entirely possible it's the one good case he's had because it's on someone he actually knows is scum. him acting like i could plausibly be scum with T3 at that moment felt very wrong.

i won't say i am fully confident in this being the team, but it is the most concerning to me, because it would mean the difficulty of the game goes from "hard" to "true hellworld", because that is an incredibly tough scumteam, and your worldview is exactly opposite to mine in that case. additionally, t3 if town is just...totally unhelpful and nearly impossible to find. i just...can't imagine i would ever take this angle as mafia, because trying to convince a player their read of the game is 100% wrong is incredibly, incredibly difficult. there are far easier paths to victory here if i am mafia.

---

the question i have to ask you is -

why are you alive?

since random nurse was eliminated, scum have had free reign over the nightkills. If you are alive in ELO, there are two possibilities - scum are either hoping to make you misvote, or they are hoping to get you voted out so they can win. The latter is clearly not the case - i don't think anyone to this point had seriously entertained the possibility of voting you. T3

just

did but i think that came out of literally nowhere.

so, you are here because scum are counting on you to vote wrong. that should tell you, at a minimum, that

one of your reads is wrong.

if pooky/skitter are TvT and scum were hoping to leave them alive so they would tunnel each other (and from your POV i think this is a reasonable concern to have), why does a chicago/T3 team leave you alive, and not brassherald? brass was very open about scumreading pooky, this game is a free win for that team if they simply NK you and let him vote pooky. i don't think that scumteam ever leaves you alive here. and i desperately need you to consider that.

[bloodhail]

i don't think it's improbable at all, based on my late night paranoia a few hours ago.

idk they spent like 7 days of a 10 day day phase where we were going to sleep doing ~this

i think the fact that you were always going to no elim is why it's plausible - i think skitter knows people would not be convinced by her, and she wasn't

trying

especially hard. in a situation like that, distancing is pretty free

again i'm not fully confident that's the team, but i would say right now to me it's something like 65/35?

[skitter30]

I am not mafia >.>
Imagine the oddness you felt from pooky last night

The entire game
He's just been so weird ....

[skitter30]

Also i've been spending a long while trying to disrupt her worldview rhat you/t3 are the team

That was literally the point of what i spent the last like 4 irl days doing

[skitter30]

- the night kills are so bizarre and i don't know who makes these, or why. It's a point against everyone so at this point i'm just discounting it and ignoring it. Those kills don't make sense from anyone's perspective

i guess to me last night's is different because instead of like potential wifom i can maybe see it type things but that one like scum!pooky would have had clear path that'd be hard to miss if partnered with t3

Can you translate this please?

[skitter30]

I don't know who medeia was going to vote coming into today

Honestly if i'm scum with pooky to kill medeia and have brass vote ct with me

[skitter30]

*it's easier to just kill medeia

[skitter30]

I think my conclusion is t3/pooky

Should probably do pooky first per the prior logic

I'm gonna be honest i don'f know if i win the 1v1 tho so doing that might be a losing move tho

[bloodhail]

and as for the second bit - well, i hadn't done that at that moment in time. obviously you could say that i'm doing that now and i wouldn't dispute that. however, i want to emphasize - if i am mafia, the game is won for me if i get one to vote each other, but it can happen either today or tomorrow. i do not need to protect T3, i bus the shit out of him because him existing is an immense liability to any scumteam. in my first game on this account i threw him under the bus on day 1 because his play jeopardized the entire team, and i leveraged that to protect the rest of my teammates

this is kind of - when i first joined the game i was taking it easy because although i think skitter is mafia and you disagree with me, it seemed possible there would be support for votes on her anyway. and if not, getting votes on T3 wouldn't be hard. but last night I was struck with the vision of a true hellworld game, and that terrifies me. i have a lot more to say to you, but it's going to take me a while to write it.

i shouldn't have quoted that bit specifically as i wasn't trying to imply you 'lied' because future actions didn't match past comments or whatever sorry

it's just like, bussing t3 and then playing another whole day where you're not even guaranteed or anything vs simply going for the win here with hours on the clock while you could also fallback to that later like if it doesn't work you can still just eliminate t3 play tomorrow, yeah?

and i know you're up for the challenge but also you believe enough to just go for things like that

not really i don't think - i am incredibly confident in my ability to win a F3 as mafia, the one time i lost there in a forum game was because i was mechanically outed

in my position, were i mafia with T3, if I simply bus the shit out of him here, i would estimate i have at minimum a 50% chance of getting skitter and pooky to give me hammer (i would probably wager it as being higher, but let's be conservative here)

whereas if i go all in trying to stop t3 from getting voted today, i have maybe a 10% chance of getting you to change your mind and adjust your worldview? maybe like 25% chance to get one of skitter or pooky to vote the other? because you're here and more likely to take them down, make them paranoid. so maybe 35% (i know that's not how math works but this is all shorthand anyway). regardless, it's a lower percentage than in the first scenario, i think inarguably. and then if t3 loses the 1v1 and goes down, i look like shit the next day and i get voted out probably 90% of the time.

so in the first scenario i estimate my chance of winning at 50%, where in the second my chances are 41.5% - i think this is a very conservative estimate and the gap between them would actually be much higher, but i'm trying to be accommodating to your perspective. regardless, the former 'bus T3' strategy is the +EV one, by a fairly decent margin. trying to play for the win today as mafia is risky, and i wouldn't be trying it. but i am town and i have to argue the perspective that seems the most real to me - i can't take the easy path because there is only one correct solution to the game.

[bloodhail]

I am not mafia >.>
Imagine the oddness you felt from pooky last night

The entire game
He's just been so weird ....

i mean, i'll be honest

if you are town you haven't really demonstrated it to me, and i feel like you are capable of doing so? it's been very hard for me to see your perspective, you've given your reasoning but it's kind of simple and i don't know that you've tried to solve me here like i'd expect.

but if you are the one crossvoting i am willing to hear you out and let you make your case, i'm not automatically voting or anything. this probably comes across as manipulative but i don't know another way to say it.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if i was mafia with skitter we would have just told medeia to vote ct when she was begging us to vote that slot off at f5

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like the slot looked flaked from game and medeia was like we need to kill this slot b4 it gets replaced and both me and skitter were online so uh why would we even bother dragging this out.

[bloodhail]

medeia - i have to ask - you have suggested that the interactions between chicago and T3 could have been a distancing routine. you also mentioned previous experience with chicago in a newbie game where he was mafia. i just went to check, and how he treated his partner there was

completely unlike

how he treated T3 this game. I have to ask - why do you think that would possibly be partnered? while it's possible he'd try to change things, since he got caught out on his play around his partner that game (i'm assuming - haven't confirmed), it's generally incredibly rare for players to do something like a complete 180 in their tactics as scum. most players don't evolve that fast, people's minds don't work that way. for the most part people's tendencies are very slow to change.

[skitter30]

I am not mafia >.>
Imagine the oddness you felt from pooky last night

The entire game
He's just been so weird ....

i mean, i'll be honest

if you are town you haven't really demonstrated it to me, and i feel like you are capable of doing so? it's been very hard for me to see your perspective, you've given your reasoning but it's kind of simple and i don't know that you've tried to solve me here like i'd expect.

but if you are the one crossvoting i am willing to hear you out and let you make your case, i'm not automatically voting or anything. this probably comes across as manipulative but i don't know another way to say it.

I've spent literally like the past month reiterating how bizarre pooky is this game

It might be kinda simple but this is my pov:
- he isnt (and never has been) solving. He's been vibing and spending a lot of time telling us how wrong the 'all prs are town perspective so we must flip thru them': from your pov you know this is wrong from your stated reads.
- the only person he had a serious scumread on was rn, which was wrong, and which he used to telegraph pushing ct/paranoia on medeia
- i think he was 100% capable of seeing what i was seeing to point to town-rn, and he just never saw anything townie and just continued to push him. Eventually he just relied on (apparently wrong) mech analysis to vote him out
- i don't believe he never saw anything townie from rn. Rn was scummy on the surface for sure, but pooky's scumread was just very 0-level and he never made an effort to try to look beyond that. I expect that town him could (and would) try to assess if rn is just bad town, and he never did
- it felt like he was relying on making ( apparently wrong) mech-based analyses to push people instead of solving
- he was blase abt which of ct/meuh to vote out: it felt like he didnt care. If you're town and he's scum, that makes a lot of sense
- he's egging me on to vote him now and isnt really solving
- and like his whole vibe this game was off, he never felt genuine. I'm aware this is a vibe that i can't directly validate

--
I'm concerned that if i crossvote i don't win this based on where you/t3 are leaning and then it's a losing vote

If you're convinced i'm mafia
And i'm leaning towards your slot being town here

I think the game is less likely to be lost if I vote t3 honestly

[skitter30]

I was in the newbie
I think it's dissimilar too

[bloodhail]

if i was mafia with skitter we would have just told medeia to vote ct when she was begging us to vote that slot off at f5

like the slot looked flaked from game and medeia was like we need to kill this slot b4 it gets replaced and both me and skitter were online so uh why would we even bother dragging this out.

shrug, it's possible and i admit it's a point in your favor but i also think caution doesn't cost you much as scum there - if you go all in there's a risk town gets paranoid but if you act cautious they might just go ahead and do it anyway. i just saw ydrasse as scum pump the brakes when i was pushing a town to start of melo and i misread her because of that - so i can't in good conscience clear you off that. i know also in terms of personality you are not ydrasse and you're generally more likely to go for the throat and take a win when it's presented to you but i still would not feel comfortable clearing you off of something like that

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

did u even read how medeia was talking to me/skitter

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

there was no paranoia

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

she was practically begging us to yeet your slot before replacement