Newbie 2129 - Postgame

[Cook]

lim is not on leek today. voting leek today is death for us i think

[Cook]

frankly i'm seeing THS/HEM as the pair? i need to read about 11 pages of content before i lock that in

the common theme seems to be hem across the four of us. i think it is helpful to try to draw out an associative on hem, up to your personal preference if you want to go for hem or want to try to kill a partner so that we 100% win d4

[SzmarzLeek]

how can you think about the next day at this stage

let's pray we choose the guy with the highest chance for being a scum now and avoid a total shame

[SzmarzLeek]

going to sleep now

I'll look at everyone's entrances tomorrow, how they entered the game

were they proactive or reactive

that could tell me something, it is said that very early game is the stage when even a good scum is a vulnerable, because they want to gain a strong position without appearing scummy

[SmileyDude1]

You don't look for potential associations towards me.

it's a crappy way to play the game, or at least it hasn't worked for me. it only works to justify a case and get locked into confirmation bias. i could enumerate permutations of relationships, but it's really a fools errand.

it's much more efficient for me to identify alignment-indicative moments and then judge the slot through that.

i don't think your slot has any town-indicative moments, compared to leek or ths

much more difficult to discriminate between leek and ths both had given me town vibes

This doesn't address the fact that you haven't done much to progress your read on me. We're in ELO, if town believes that a certain player is likely scum then they should be working to convince others of this view since town loses if wrong. You believe my slot is scum, yet you don't make any effort (Not sure if I've seen anything beyond VCA arguments on vibe arguments, correct me if wrong) to look for information to prove this to others, or advance your read to better convince others. You've done minimal to look at associations with me (if i'm scum my interactions with others should impact your read on other players) or outside of me (In order to avoid a tunnel without considering all possibilities first, looking at other pairs outside of your main suspect helps to avoid conf-bias). It comes off like you don't really care all that much to sort the game (I know you've been busy, but like how long does it take to comb through an ISO for example like a few hours at the high end (assuming like medium-sized) to do so and post your conclusion, even a stated intention towards doing something like that would ease my mind a slight bit), which is concerning given the position town is in.

I really don't see the point behind this post unless you're trying to receive towncred

Wanted to point out that they didn't actually address the argument I made in my 931, while being more clear about why I find the points mentioned within that post to be problematic.

There's four players scumreading HEM so we need to ask ourselves at this point is this the town lim that scum is trying to ride to end of game or is someone here trying to distance from him

It may help in this case to do what I did and go through pairs outside of HEM and check to see how much they track with you. The most important part should be making sure today's elimination hits scum as we lose otherwise (probing interactions can come after the flip). If you can determine the common player that's most likely to be part of the solve, then you minimize the odds of the game ending today by limming that player which is the best you can hope for in most cases. I did this FMPOV and came to the conclusion in 937 that most of the non-HEM pairs don't really work (the one that's most feasible to me is Hold/Cook but i'd place that below HEM/Cook and HEM/Hold in terms of likelihood), which eased my fear of engaging into a losing mislim by pushing there.

[SmileyDude1]

Why doesn't everyone go ahead and rank who you think is scum, from most likely to least likely.

I'll say I think HEM -> Smiley -> Cook -----> Leek

HEM---> Cook--> Hold----------> Leek

[SmileyDude1]

So if there's distancing where is it occurring?

Do you think Smiley lecturing HEM for not engaging in scumhunt enough could be an attempt at distancing?

I've held this gripe about their play dating back to 647. That doesn't preclude it from being distancing, but it's def not something I pulled out of thin air, if that's what your implying.

[humaneatingmonkey]

yo so this is going to be the last newbie

thats so sad

[humaneatingmonkey]

i wish i didnt replace in lmao

[TheHoldSteady]

yo so this is going to be the last newbie

thats so sad

Why's it sad

[TheHoldSteady]

HEM will you blame us or yourself when we lose?

[TheHoldSteady]

You don't look for potential associations towards me.

it's a crappy way to play the game, or at least it hasn't worked for me. it only works to justify a case and get locked into confirmation bias. i could enumerate permutations of relationships, but it's really a fools errand.

it's much more efficient for me to identify alignment-indicative moments and then judge the slot through that.

i don't think your slot has any town-indicative moments, compared to leek or ths

much more difficult to discriminate between leek and ths both had given me town vibes

This doesn't address the fact that you haven't done much to progress your read on me. We're in ELO, if town believes that a certain player is likely scum then they should be working to convince others of this view since town loses if wrong. You believe my slot is scum, yet you don't make any effort (Not sure if I've seen anything beyond VCA arguments on vibe arguments, correct me if wrong) to look for information to prove this to others, or advance your read to better convince others. You've done minimal to look at associations with me (if i'm scum my interactions with others should impact your read on other players) or outside of me (In order to avoid a tunnel without considering all possibilities first, looking at other pairs outside of your main suspect helps to avoid conf-bias). It comes off like you don't really care all that much to sort the game (I know you've been busy, but like how long does it take to comb through an ISO for example like a few hours at the high end (assuming like medium-sized) to do so and post your conclusion, even a stated intention towards doing something like that would ease my mind a slight bit), which is concerning given the position town is in.

I really don't see the point behind this post unless you're trying to receive towncred

Wanted to point out that they didn't actually address the argument I made in my 931, while being more clear about why I find the points mentioned within that post to be problematic.

There's four players scumreading HEM so we need to ask ourselves at this point is this the town lim that scum is trying to ride to end of game or is someone here trying to distance from him

It may help in this case to do what I did and go through pairs outside of HEM and check to see how much they track with you. The most important part should be making sure today's elimination hits scum as we lose otherwise (probing interactions can come after the flip). If you can determine the common player that's most likely to be part of the solve, then you minimize the odds of the game ending today by limming that player which is the best you can hope for in most cases. I did this FMPOV and came to the conclusion in 937 that most of the non-HEM pairs don't really work (the one that's most feasible to me is Hold/Cook but i'd place that below HEM/Cook and HEM/Hold in terms of likelihood), which eased my fear of engaging into a losing mislim by pushing there.

I did that earlier but I couldn't find anything

Assume Leek is town that leaves you and Cook as the only non-HEM team the player whose slot was inactive for a good portion of this game and we don't have much interactions for

[TheHoldSteady]

frankly i'm seeing THS/HEM as the pair? i need to read about 11 pages of content before i lock that in

the common theme seems to be hem across the four of us. i think it is helpful to try to draw out an associative on hem, up to your personal preference if you want to go for hem or want to try to kill a partner so that we 100% win d4

I say lim HEM because it gives us more info and time but that's just me

[TheHoldSteady]

HEM if you're town I honestly hope you're not like this every game

Not how SEs are supposed to act at all

[humaneatingmonkey]

honestly guys i wish i could do more

i still have work in the next 8 hours

i can probably rummage through the thread for answers later

[humaneatingmonkey]

HEM if you're town I honestly hope you're not like this every game

Not how SEs are supposed to act at all

no I'm not like this every game

it's poor timing for me

[TheHoldSteady]

If you don't have time you don't have time, I understand, but even when you're here you're just apathetic and uncaring

I feel like an idiot either way you flip because I passed on voting your slot twice

I almost did yesterday but one of the damn replacements gave me time to second guess

[TheHoldSteady]

Either you're town and I go 0-3 or you're scum and I missed the most apparent scum twice

[Cook]

HEM, SD1, THS is my poe

[humaneatingmonkey]

i'll give this my best shot later

[Cook]

i'm sure you will

[TheHoldSteady]

Spoiler: Day 1

At present, all I can say is: Brassherald and TheHoldSteady have made some impression on me already, I've played with Erinys before, and Clems is the reason I'm even in this game right now. Of the people who have spoken so far, I want to see Smileydude and Steve talk more because I have never played before with them and I need to get a grasp on their mannerisms. And of the two who haven't spoken; one is usually a lurky wildcard (KawaiiMikuStan) while the other is more grounded as both alignments (SlowthePoke).

Good post

Kawaii~! Anyway i hc vt uwu owo

Oh my God I’m so glad Leek replaced KMS because this gimmicky posting style is such a pain in the ass to read. I can’t imagine dealing with trying to sort this for a month.

So as i was saying, let's put an eeeensy weensy bit more pressure on this slot (Clem its time for me to sheep me, nii chan)

Uck from what I can make out of this awful gimmick posting KMS pings slightly town, this post in particular seems town

ok no i actually like brassherald as the game has progressed, I want to see people look into this. VOTE: SmileyDude1

Agree that LuB's post about MagicalSteve being the town leader is apparently out of nowhere. Also people, this game so far is the reason you should never have multiple PS troll players in a single MS game.
SevenEyes, welcome! Give me the name of the person you like the most and the one you like the least right now, and we'll go from there.

CCGeek most town player day 1

They feel too... lurk-y, they contributed ever so slightly by sharing reads and voting me.. then pop! Kaboom! Dissappear! Not very wonderhoi, but w/e. I just wanted to force more stuff out of em, yk?

I can see how you reach that conclusion, BrassHerald's ISO is light on non-RVS content so far. I think that other slots such as myself (before today) and SevenEyes may have been more apt targets to press in this way though.

I feel neutral about that answer

Smiley’s weird thing about not removing himself from the scumpool when talking about reads has been consistent the entire game

I think that other slots such as myself (before today) and SevenEyes may have been more apt targets to press in this way though.

First the self-vote and now suggesting yourself as someone to look into... Weird.

The former was my attempt at humor. As for the latter, how do you generally read self-criticism? Personally I want to say I'm of the opinion that it's fine (if i'm being honest I haven't been around here long enough to establish a baseline on these things yet) to point out flaws in my own play when they come up.

I don’t like this -- reads as defensive, maybe too defensive for what was an early game read – but on the other hand, it matches up with what Smiley was saying day two later on about that thing

I can see how you reach that conclusion, BrassHerald's ISO is light on non-RVS content so far. I think that other slots such as myself (before today) and SevenEyes may have been more apt targets to press in this way though.
I feel neutral about that answer

simply going off of vibes i think that you are maybe one of the least sus rn. smileydude, on the other hand ... i'm no expert but self voting is always kinda sus ...

This was actually a good post coming for from a new town player

Also will just go ahead and say that I think there is a decent chance that there's scum pushing my self-vote here. BrassHerald's 154, and SevenEyes's 164 stand out because they came after my explanation earlier.

As such, VOTE: BrassHerald

Again, defensive

I literally said not to push your self vote and then just agreed with another person on your answer to it being weird.

Commenting on the game state is a normal way to play the game. Weird isn't even a push. It's just weird. Town can be weird.

I think I may have misinterpreted your 154 as saying that both my self-vote and self criticism was weird in isolation when you meant that they were weird put together. The former didn't really make sense since you defended the self-vote earlier, the latter is a fair point

And why are you counting out high princess, the literal one I was agreeing with it being weird with?

My reasoning on this mainly stems that they're suspicion came before I had actually explained my actions and so I understood why my actions up to that point would be seen as weird out of context, the two posts mentioned in 170 came after I had already explained and felt dogpiley (probs not the right word for it, but alas) to me.

Though given the misunderstanding UNVOTE: BrassHerald
VOTE: SevenEyes

Changing your mind reads like a genuine town thought process to me and probably the earliest indication that Smiley and Hem wouldn’t be partners
Geek comes in at 284 and immediately starts looking at a few different things from varied angles

it's easy to miss SevenEyes in this game

I don't like how she's posting just enough to avoid prods

could be an even better lim if she keeps such playstyle

Leek’s hyper-fixation on activity rubbed me the wrong way early on, because I think towns can and are in a lot of cases more likely to be inactive than scum. but I guess when I think about it in the early game the best you can hope for is everyone is active and contributing. It also makes sense that town Leek would townread CCGeek based on following the consistent logic. Town read

I have my doubts about Steve, but I don't think it is a good day 1 lim since they're providing content and post their thoughts

I believe Steve deserves another day

as opposed to SevenEyes

I don’t agree with Leek’s logic here but again, I think its misguided town

Like, I feel like you could argue that SevenEyes would be the best day 1 lim due to that slot likely being the hardest to sort later, but then I look at their content and get newb town vibes so idk

Smiley kind of handwaves the SevenEyes lim here

the "yuck" post in particular was a weird way to respond to a post about just voting, let alone any post. scumlean, imo.

SevenEyes gives a weird ass reason to scumread Bulge

hmm, not sure what to think about it

1. these reads strike me as... repeating what others have said? a lot of stuff there is reiterating my reads after entering the thread, is there any original thought there that wasn't stated in the thread earlier?

2. doubling down on "I'm a newbie" approach, so various abbreviations have been flying before in this thread and SevenEyes didn't need to points our her newbiness before so strongly; could it be that she saw "it feels like a newbie town" opinion from e.g. Smile and wanted to use that card?

town, what do you think?

SevenEyes, who would you want to lim today, the Bulge?

okay SevenEyes, who would be your second choice if e.g. there is a claim or they Bulge defends themselves well? it's wise to have a second candidate for a lim in forum mafia

magicalsteve or smileydude i think.

Yeah I’m ruling out Leek and HEM as partners. If they are scum together, just like, fuck them completely for doing this

CS doesn't look that good now after a second reread

both princess and CivilScum

commenting and questions but not much conclusions

Town

I want more from CivilScum

wanna just name all slots you want more from?

yeah, I'd like Steve to defend himself more

I want you to "do stuff" as you have noticed you're quite reactive

Very town
Day one ends there
Leek comes across as very town, Geek also (I think not committing to anything for EoD is actually more town than scum). Smiley not as much as I remembered before, SevenEyes I have no idea
As far as partner tells go for this day, Leek/HEM seems unlikely. Smiley voted Eyes for a bit, and then unvoted – could be distancing but not wanting to lim a partner, could be genuine, hard to tell. Geek 396 I don’t really understand where Leek was pocketing so I wish I had time to ask that.
Geek / cook & Smiley interactions:

CCGeek gets town points for working to get the game out of RVS

CCGeek- Town Read
MagicalSteve- Town Lean
iamveryhappy- Town Lean
TheHoldSteady - Town Lean
HighPrincessErinys- Null
KawaiiMikuStan- Null
BrassHerald- Null
SevenEyes- Slight Scum Lean
Scum
This is where i'm at right now.

I don't feel strongly about Smiley, I'll have to read him more carefully.

These two didn’t interact a whole bunch, CCGeek just says Smiley is null and Smiley puts a townread on CCGeek for helping in getting the game out of RVS. Yeah so I have no idea if they’d be partners or not based on day one. Geek barely interacted with SevenEyes either, just kind of echoed my sentiments of not knowing how the hell to read that quiet of a slot.

[TheHoldSteady]

absence makes the heart go yonder, i guess. every time i reread day one i feel better about whoever occupies ccgeek's slot

[SzmarzLeek]

HEM if you're town I honestly hope you're not like this every game

Not how SEs are supposed to act at all

I love this post

brutal honesty

[SmileyDude1]

Less than a day now. I'm leaving for work in a second, but I should be available through deadline around 9-10 hours from now (May be able to sneak some lunchbreak-posting in the case of an emergency, though I usually prefer not doing so as I tend to get absorbed while doing so and forget to eat )