DEFCON 6.0 - GAME OVER!

[Firebringer]

i think its pretty silly. Also i think his reaction to him getting "confirmed" was pretty townie

[Gamma Emerald]

I haven’t checked if both the players that shot at Marci actually upgraded their lethality, but presuming for a second that they did, the odds of surviving two shots are (1 - 0.36)*(1 - 0.36) = 41.0%. You’re sitting there pretending like it’s an impossibility when it isn’t. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s also far from completely absurd. And in a world where you’ve taken two shots, you’re probably sitting there thinking “I’m very likely to get shot at multiple more times.” I can’t think of a better situation to shoot at your buddy and, in the likely situation that they survive your shot, you get to give them cover the rest of the game.

I hate that the figure of 41.0% is technically the proper rounded figure if you are rounding to one decimal point, it looks so wrong

[Chell]

i don’t utterly hate the hero shot

[Chell]

feels totally in marci’s wheelhouse to just lolbus all her team mates

[Firebringer]

gonna resolve itself so no use in arguing about it.

[Chell]

firebringer why did you nuke meuh

[Firebringer]

she stole my snow cone

[Bell]

Unforgivable.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

[WEEK ONE, DEFCON 1 - Game Event]

...

[NORAD SYSTEM] ALERT. ALERT. MULTIPLE NUCLEAR LAUNCHES DETECTED.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Attempting to locate launch site...

[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile tracked to facility XR-1322, currently commanded by

Andresvmb

[NORAD SYSTEM] Analyzing flight trajectory…
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile is currently targeting coordinates registered to

SirCakez

.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Estimating time until impact...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Warhead will detonate on 10-05-23 - 0104 Hours.

[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile tracked to facility XR-321, currently commanded by

Firebringer

[NORAD SYSTEM] Analyzing flight trajectory…
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile is currently targeting coordinates registered to

Meuh

.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Estimating time until impact...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Warhead will detonate on 10-06-23 - 0130 Hours.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Oh shit looks like this game getting lively again.

Fire nice SHOT

[UNOwen]

Idk seems rude to nuke her twice. Also if she survives the second nuke that means she will have survived the most nukes and that should go to me.

I know no-one seriously believed I’d even be scratched but I’ve already survived two nukes.

You’ve got a fair bit of catching up to do if you want to wrestle the honor of “most cockroach like” from me.

[UNOwen]

Much respect to the audacity of Andres, hope that he is town even though I’m pretty sure I could hear evil cackling while reading his nuke justification.

[UNOwen]

I started reading a few ISOs. In a game where cooperation isn’t really required, I don’t think I can reliably find Scum. I do, however, think that I’m supposed to have fun here. So I’ll go for fun, see what happens.

Did you reach any other conclusions from the ISOs you read or was it only that Cakez should be destroyed?

[Meuh]

I’ll never die!!!!!!!!!

[Meuh]

Nukes are weaker than I am

[Bell]

Would prefer hero plan to hero shot.

[Andresvmb]

I started reading a few ISOs. In a game where cooperation isn’t really required, I don’t think I can reliably find Scum. I do, however, think that I’m supposed to have fun here. So I’ll go for fun, see what happens.

Did you reach any other conclusions from the ISOs you read or was it only that Cakez should be destroyed?

I wouldn’t execute Bell. I think they’re posting too freely to be Scum. That was the first ISO that I read and 438 and 512 aren’t likely to be coming from Scum in my view. And it’s even better that those happened in response to flipped Scum T3. Yeah they had T3 wrong for a long while, but it seemed like a genuine read.

Klick’s analysis in 1546 was solid. I’ll ignore the bad read on T3 since well, I think T3 is very difficult to read the vast majority of the time. So Lean Town there. The abort on Gamma seemed Town motivated too. I’ll have to read up on the other slots highlighted in 1717 to get a more definitive answer. I think 1527 from T3 is a decent indication that Klick probably isn’t Scum, but that could have been convenient since T3 was getting shot at.

Some other scattered thoughts: 405 from T3 is interesting - it kept me from shooting Chell here. 499 from Firebringer feels very confrontational with T3 if they’re Partners. Not impossible to fake, but enough to avoid getting nuked. I had the same gut feeling about 555 from Cephrir. I wasn’t going to nuke Norwegian from the interaction in 843 and 930. I know T3 was perfectly capable of shading a buddy (like 785), but it’s more the reaction in some of these cases that makes me think not partnered.

I’m in the camp that Drew’s shot there is crazy from a Scum buddy. And they could have easily backed out after marcistar flipped Scum but didn’t.

Reading the game in ISOs instead of from the top isn’t my preferred approach but what can you do, I wanted to get into it and this seemed okay for now.

[Andresvmb]

Okay I actually have a job so I will be paying some attention but I’ll be busy for a few hours. I’ll keep reading later if I survive. Otherwise, good shooting. Act recklessly.

[Save The Dragons]

nuke nuke nuke nuke of earl

[Gamma Emerald]

Would prefer hero plan to hero shot.

Wut

[SirCakez]

Bruh

[SirCakez]

I just want to nuke someone else tomorrow

[SirCakez]

Andres isn't wrong that I've been coasting off the failed scum nuke on me but I also am baffled that he thought I was the best shot to take here when there are numerous people more widely scumread. That said I was just advocating for hero shots so ig I can't complain that much lmao.

[SirCakez]

At least we'll get results of the Ircher nuke today

[PenguinPower]

and mine