Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

[bionicchop2]

Im gonna take scenario B.

You are completely wrong on at least half of that scenario, so don't get too locked in to it. I know xtoxm scum very well and I would be shocked if he isn't scum.

Trust me this one day and you can hide behind me tonight. We will both die, but at least I will get some satisfaction if Xtoxm flips scum.

[afatchic]

haha, i might can live with that. but i was kinda looking forward to a crazy lynch today. im gonna try and get a reread in tomorrow after my last final and ill go from there.

[ortolan]

so, hider says jump and everybody jumps?

vote camn

as a follow over from yesterday. Ortolan, I would like to know your reasons for voting crazy.

Xtoxm I would like to know yours which were never expresed yesterday.

I just gave them in the preceding post...

I didn't think you were scum, and thus the scum are to be found in Crazy, xtoxm and I wouldn't rule out camn either. However, I prefer either of Crazy or xtoxm first (for lurking very hard thoughout the game, and camn did at least facilitate the hypoclaim) and as afatchic already began the bandwagon on Crazy, I was happy to follow

I would also be happy to switch to xtoxm...

I will consider changing/ further supporting my vote as I read the more recent posts

1. Camn - could drop down, but I feel like everybody is ignoring her as a suspect. Could be the posting style of overly joking that has my read on scum.

I haven't been ignoring her as a suspect...

I don't think we should rule out ortolan as scum. If ort is scum, I am thinking his partners (either bio or xtoxm) are trying to get the idea that ort is town out there, that way, when either of them is eventually lynched, there partner is saved for the win. Now, I think there is a good chance crazy is scum still.

I honestly don't understand why you've been tunneling on me since you first started to post actual cases- most of the points you made to begin with were arguments that had already made by others and I believe shown to not hold much weight. There's also the evidence for me being town that I was very forceful in wanting TCS lynched until I interpreted that he was the hider, I don't see what scum could possibly have to gain by putting that information on the table freely.

On the hider thing: I agree with xtoxm: if fat tells us who he's going to hide behind then the scum definitely get two night-kills no matter what (and we have no watchers so if the person they hide behind is town we get no information and just gave the mafia another kill). Furthermore all this does is bring the game into even numbers and I believe it's better to maintain odd numbers? At the moment we are on 7 townies 2 scum. If the hider tells us who he's going to hide behind and they're town, and we misslynch, then tomorrow we're on 4 townies 2 scum, and if we misslynch again we lose. However if the hider doesn't tell us who he's going to hide behind (or even just doesn't hide behind anyone so whatever happens the scum can only get one night kill that night), and we misslynch, then we've got 5 townies to 2 scum, and can go another day on 3 townies to 2 scum even if we misslynch. Thus I don't think the benefits of using the hider as a kamikaze cop in any outweigh the benefits. In fact, with the extra day allowed in the worst case scenario by the hider not hiding, in allowing us an extra misslynch, we are getting the detective function we could have gotten from the hider anyway. Please question me if this is not clear. But I'm certainly not in favour of the hider telling us who he will hide behind.

ETA: Put camn at 5, with ort at 4.

Perhaps I misinterpreted the post where you placed me under continued suspicious. I certainly would have thought from that that you'd have me higher than a 4.

And after re-reading I'm still happy with either Crazy or xtoxm, perhaps I lean slightly towards xtoxm now after post 600 (I still trust bionic, even though this post may be mere wifom)

so at this stage

+3 xtoxm

+2 Crazy

+1 camn

I will reconsider bionic though to see if I've misinterpreted him as town

[ortolan]

Actually I just realised that's kind of contradictory that I agree with xtoxm about the hider yet still find him very scummy

I might have more to say in a while

[orangepenguin]

You're actually near the bottom of unconfirmed people, so I am not really tunneling on you. I just found it quite suspicious that everyone else was pretty much ruling you out as scum, which I saw as a possible tactic that scum would do - say they're partner isn't scum.

Well, obviously, the scum won't put their partner first, nor will they put them last. Well, they might, but in case they were lynched, the wouldn't make it that obvious..is this being WIFOM?

[afatchic]

If i don't hide, then i just die tonight. then the scum will continually kill a cleared each night. what i want to do is atleast narrow down the possible scum pool a little bit tonight. therefore, i hide behind an uncleared.

Xtoxm-12(bio:2,Camn:3,OP:3, AFC:1, Ortolan:3)
Crazy-10(bio:1,Camn:2,OP:2, AFC:3, Ortolan:2)
Bionnichop2-4(Camn:1,OP:1, AFC:2)
Camn-4(bio:3, Ortolan:1)
Ortolan

Not voting: Xtoxm, Crazy, StrangerCoug, IcemanE

[Xtoxm]

Just you watch it play scum into a victory they didn't have.

Yes, Bio does know my meta well. But he's scum in this game, and he's BSing. It means squat.

At the least, you definatley should not tell us who you plan to hide behind, and you should try to hide behind town. If you die in a double kill that's very bad for town, it doesn't matter if you die finding a scum, the damage is still done.

Like I say, we have 2 mislynches, we don't need your power. You are abusing it to the town's detriment.

[Xtoxm]

By all means, lynch me today. Just think about what i've said. And i'm quite sure Bio is scum at this point.

[ortolan]

If i don't hide, then i just die tonight.

Um, no. Especially if the mafia expect you to hide they will not target you.

But now I think about it actually I'm not sure.

if you randomly choose someone you have a 2/9 chance of dying from hiding behind scum + a 1/6 chance of hiding behind someone who gets night-killed (assuming scum don't try to target you also, if they did then it would only be a 1/7 chance of hiding behind someone who gets night-killed assuming you hid behind someone at all). This is around a 39% chance of dying now I think about it, and if you didn't breadcrumb this would reveal nothing to us at all.

Instead if you choose from this list of five:

bio camn crazy ort xtoxm

which I assume will be a list of four after today's lynch, then you have a 1/2 chance of dying and outing scum in the process, and a 1/2 chance of getting night-killed along with the townie you hid behind. So actually I reckon there's a good argument for using your role as a suicide cop, considering we've got numbers on our side at the moment. Any comments, have I got my maths wrong?

[ortolan]

and furthermore assuming the worst case scenario then, we'd be down to 4 townies 2 scum and knowledge that the 2 scum lay within 3 players.

[StrangerCoug]

I'll go Xtoxm +3, Crazy +2, and camn +1.

Just you watch it play scum into a victory they didn't have.

Yes, Bio does know my meta well. But he's scum in this game, and he's BSing. It means squat.

At the least, you definatley should not tell us who you plan to hide behind, and you should try to hide behind town. If you die in a double kill that's very bad for town, it doesn't matter if you die finding a scum, the damage is still done.

Like I say, we have 2 mislynches, we don't need your power. You are abusing it to the town's detriment.

OK, bionicchop2 is BS'ing. The problem is, you're not convincing that you aren't BS'ing yourself.

[afatchic]

If i don't hide, then i just die tonight.

Um, no. Especially if the mafia expect you to hide they will not target you.

But now I think about it actually I'm not sure.

if you randomly choose someone you have a 2/9 chance of dying from hiding behind scum + a 1/6 chance of hiding behind someone who gets night-killed (assuming scum don't try to target you also, if they did then it would only be a 1/7 chance of hiding behind someone who gets night-killed assuming you hid behind someone at all). This is around a 39% chance of dying now I think about it, and if you didn't breadcrumb this would reveal nothing to us at all.

Instead if you choose from this list of five:

bio camn crazy ort xtoxm

which I assume will be a list of four after today's lynch, then you have a 1/2 chance of dying and outing scum in the process, and a 1/2 chance of getting night-killed along with the townie you hid behind. So actually I reckon there's a good argument for using your role as a suicide cop, considering we've got numbers on our side at the moment. Any comments, have I got my maths wrong?

yeah i have a 3/4 chance of dying tonight if i try to secretly hide and find the last person, which is why i won't do that. if we lynch town today, that leaves to mafia and two unclear town. so i would hide behind one of those four, 2 of which are mafia. so prior to the mafia kill, i have a 1/2 chance of dying. then adding in the mafia kill, i have a 3/4 chance of dying, which is why i won't secretly hide. right now im planning on just telling you who i will hide behind and then using my role as a suicide cop, or just telling you i won't hide, so then if i die you don't accuse someone you think i may hide behind. either way, tomorrow it should be obvious who the scum is if i die tonight.

[Jex]

Vote Count:

2 - Xtoxm (StrangerCoug, camn)
2 - Crazy (afatchic, ortolan)
2 -Camn (bionicchop2, Xtoxm)

Not Voting

Crazy, icemanE, orangepenguin,

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[bionicchop2]

oh. I thought I changed my vote over when I was debating xtoxm. Apparently I did not.

unvote camn ; vote xtoxm

[orangepenguin]

I think all the confirmed people should wait until all the unconfirmed people place their vote before we hammer.

[bionicchop2]

I think all the confirmed people should wait until all the unconfirmed people place their vote before we hammer.

I would recommend not putting xtoxm at L-1 until afatchic has stated who he will hide behind. He has a tendency to hammer himself regardless of alignment lately.

[orangepenguin]

Good point.

But it could be possible that both of you are town, and that the real scum are going under the radar (i.e. crazy, camn)

[Xtoxm]

If it would prevent him from claiming target then yeh I definately would. He shouldn't be announcing any target anyway.

[orangepenguin]

Yes he should be. That way, if he is lynched after hiding behind a scum, we know who the scum is.

[camn]

How am I "under the radar"?

[bionicchop2]

But it could be possible that both of you are town, and that the real scum are going under the radar (i.e. crazy, camn)

I acknowledge that possibility.

Worst case scenario is town lynched, town hidden behind (double kill) and 3 suspects left (2 scum out of those).

Best case is scum lynched and scum hidden behind.

Now if afatchic doesn't announce, scum can choose to just not kill an uncleared (kill someone already hidden behind) and hope he dies behind one of them. That could leave us with 4 suspects (2 scum) and no knowledge of where he hid.

[afatchic]

I think all the confirmed people should wait until all the unconfirmed people place their vote before we hammer.

I would recommend not putting xtoxm at L-1 until afatchic has stated who he will hide behind. He has a tendency to hammer himself regardless of alignment lately.

I didn't realize we were already this close to a lynch. I will be hiding behind Crazy tonight. Figured i would go ahead and announce it since my power cord for my laptop has broke so i may not be able to get on again before the lynch.

[orangepenguin]

How am I "under the radar"?

Bad word choice. Simply- you're not the center of attention at the moment, and I assume the opposite of what's likely, and that scum are in the background, enjoying the bio/xtoxm back and forth.

[ortolan]

ok maybe all the unconfirmed people should say who they'd most like lynched/investigated by the hider and why

I will but I'd firstly like to ask xtoxm/bio for more reasons why each other are scummy.

[StrangerCoug]

Happy birthday mod!