Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Aristeia]

also i kind of feel like every time you talk to implosion about him hammering you its like you are trying to scare him into not hammering you.

which doesn't make sense if you're town and you think he's scum who is angling to hammer you because like that's kind of his win condition and he knows that hammering you is a town flip so there's nothing to scare him with.

[Aristeia]

ehhhh, you know what

i'm capable of believing datisi was faking a weak, hesitant tr on ari because he didn't want to scumread his scum partner

also i kinda think ari's reaction to me having a 99% confidence on datisi town might be tmi from her lollll.

VOTE: ari

like I don't think the reasoning stated in this post is why you've decided to vote me because its incredibly weak.

it feels like you decided to vote me based on Merlyn unvoting you and stating she doesn't think it's implosion or bella because niether of them have hammered you - which leaves just me.

You think if she is willing to vote me and not willing to vote implosion then that means you have an easier way to lim me - hence you deciding to move your vote - then you decide to add in some reasoning that's pretty tangentially related.

You saying that my reaction to your 99% townread on datisi is TMI is just nonsensical - your read was terrible

regardless

of Datisi's alignment

[Hero at Heart]

your decision to move from implosion to me is based on Merlyn unvoting you and saying its not implosion or bella which means her vote could land on me and not based on you believing I am mafia.

who do you think i should be voting as town here?

[Hero at Heart]

honestly ari i don't think this game is winnable for town if you are town and you keep tunneling me this way

even if i unvote you and vote scum, you are just gonna vote me off and then get voted off tomorrow

it's kinda ridiculous that you can't leave this aside for more than a few minutes with all your readflipping.

[Hero at Heart]

UNVOTE:

it's late and i want to think about this in depth tomorrow.

[implosion]

hero do you think i'm scum or do you not think i'm scum

[implosion]

i will say that my scum case on implo is based on the fact that if you read his iso starting from post 935 onwards, you see the smoothest transition between a hyper townread on hero, can't believe hero is ever scum here, to "i wanna hammer hero but not yet".

and what bothers me is the smoothness of it, there are no bumps, no wild turns left or right, no flip flopping. it feels a bit artificial. compare it with ari's 4 times of readflipping or whatever, where she was like super scumreading me in one post then saying "fine i'll tr you" in the next post. the fact it isn't smooth makes it feel organic, at least to me.

Like honestly this is a fairly reasoned point against me. The reason it's the case is because my town case on you essentially amounted to one thing that over time I realized wasn't good enough in the game we're in. But like, I don't understand how you make this post, then vote me, then six minutes later you vote ari. After you were arguing that Merlyn should let you live because you're literally never going to vote Merlyn, and after all game you talked about how you were never voting Ari, like you have things that are set in stone but you just don't. I don't understand why you're playing this way as either alignment tbh. It feels like such a weird kind of performativity.

[implosion]

Yeah, I'm thinking there's no rush to put the hammer down on you, I don't know why if you're town and Bella or Implo is scum that they don't come in and end it. Cautiousness tends to be more towny. The other option is that you really are scum

Worth noting Bella hasn't posted since the E-1 happened. Honestly I also still want her on the table for today, I feel like I'd have a hard time not voting her in f3. I really don't think Ari is the play today. I feel like I really like the reasons I have to townread her. Like fuck, Hero gave a great reason to townread her in his post against me seven minutes before voting her >_>

[implosion]

like I don't think the reasoning stated in this post is why you've decided to vote me because its incredibly weak.

it feels like you decided to vote me based on Merlyn unvoting you and stating she doesn't think it's implosion or bella because niether of them have hammered you - which leaves just me.

You think if she is willing to vote me and not willing to vote implosion then that means you have an easier way to lim me - hence you deciding to move your vote - then you decide to add in some reasoning that's pretty tangentially related.

You saying that my reaction to your 99% townread on datisi is TMI is just nonsensical - your read was terrible regardless of Datisi's alignment

The thing about this gives me a little bit of pause is just that like, does anyone actually play this way as scum? Specifically the voting for you in that moment. I think I have a sometimes-wrong inclination to call things too scummy to be scum, it makes sense if hero thinks it's literally their only out but just the level of blatant, out in the open opportunism is almost foreign to how i think most scum think

[Aristeia]

your decision to move from implosion to me is based on Merlyn unvoting you and saying its not implosion or bella which means her vote could land on me and not based on you believing I am mafia.

who do you think i should be voting as town here?

generally as town you vote the person you believe is mafia

[Aristeia]

honestly ari i don't think this game is winnable for town if you are town and you keep tunneling me this way

even if i unvote you and vote scum, you are just gonna vote me off and then get voted off tomorrow

it's kinda ridiculous that you can't leave this aside for more than a few minutes with all your readflipping.

if you are town then there are two other town players other than me

if you vote for the last mafia and convince those other two town players to vote with you; we will win the game.

my read of you does not determine whether this game can be won or not.

[Merlyn]

Yeah, I'm thinking there's no rush to put the hammer down on you, I don't know why if you're town and Bella or Implo is scum that they don't come in and end it. Cautiousness tends to be more towny. The other option is that you really are scum

Worth noting Bella hasn't posted since the E-1 happened. Honestly I also still want her on the table for today, I feel like I'd have a hard time not voting her in f3. I really don't think Ari is the play today. I feel like I really like the reasons I have to townread her. Like fuck, Hero gave a great reason to townread her in his post against me seven minutes before voting her >_>

That's a good point, I guess I was just thinking Bella as scum would check in more after the first vote and be ready to go. She is really hard to read on more than vibes, I haven't been able to get her to engage with me fully.

[Hero at Heart]

hero do you think i'm scum or do you not think i'm scum

i think i made myself clear and it's kind of annoying that i keep being asked about this, BUT I DON'T THINK TODAY'S LIM IS GOING TO HAVE BETTER THAN 33-40% CHANCE OF BEING RIGHT. If we do a random lim then it has 20% of being right, mathematically. I don't think any of us has reads that are much better than random and if someone says they have they are either lying, or lying to themselves, because everyone else here is pushing me and i'm town, and i know my reads today aren't perfect. if my reads were perfect i wouldn't have voted titus or included std in the coalition. SO THIS MEANS I CANNOT ANSWER A QUESTION LIKE THIS BY A SIMPLE ANSWER LIKE "YES I THINK YOU ARE SCUM" OR "NO I DON'T THINK YOU ARE SCUM".

HOWEVER, i thought you were the likeliest to be scum until you re-appeared and didn't hammer which completely shattered my scum case on you.

Like honestly this is a fairly reasoned point against me. The reason it's the case is because my town case on you essentially amounted to one thing that over time I realized wasn't good enough in the game we're in. But like, I don't understand how you make this post, then vote me, then six minutes later you vote ari. After you were arguing that Merlyn should let you live because you're literally never going to vote Merlyn, and after all game you talked about how you were never voting Ari, like you have things that are set in stone but you just don't. I don't understand why you're playing this way as either alignment tbh. It feels like such a weird kind of performativity.

ok so here's the deal. if i was reading you correctly (as scum) then your plan was to continue with the same smooth progression on me and then eventually hammer it. but you didn't, so that threw me into doubt on you. merlyn made a good point so i re-looked at the possibility of ari!scum, one which i had earlier dismissed, and found that it is possible. it's the same process i had with re-looking at datisi!scum or re-looking at you!scum or re-looking at THS!town and seeing that is possible.

and i actually promised ari not to lim her if the coalition failed as a result of the coalition failing, which i indeed kept as a promise since the person who was limmed as a result of the coalition failing was std, not her. but you can't expect me to actually NEVER look at ari at all and question her alignment.

and yes i agree it's weird as either alignment, but i guess i'm just not playing optimally this game?

more later cuz i really gotta go rn

[implosion]

merlyn made a good point so i re-looked at the possibility of ari!scum, one which i had earlier dismissed, and found that it is possible.

I guess the main thing is that this took you like 3-6 minutes to re-evaluate. I get that if you're town you're just not confident in yourself but it really is a staggering amount of reads volatility.

Friendly reminder that it is like 17 hours to deadline. I'm flying out tomorrow morning and am not sure how online I will be in general during the day. I think I should be chilling at the airport a bit after I land so should at least have that chance. I still want to hear more from bella.

[Hero at Heart]

i don't really know why it's so staggering when ari has either had the same amount or even more reads volatility than me.

the only difference is maybe the presentation.

and regarding how long it took to re-look at it, like i said i've read their posts so many times this game it's not even funny. i am not joking when i said it'setched into my brain.

so yeah, i didn't need to go back and reread the posts, i just remembered certain things and was like "uh, i guess that makes sense actually"

[Hero at Heart]

also i kind of feel like every time you talk to implosion about him hammering you its like you are trying to scare him into not hammering you.

which doesn't make sense if you're town and you think he's scum who is angling to hammer you because like that's kind of his win condition and he knows that hammering you is a town flip so there's nothing to scare him with.

i am not trying to scare him, i was just confident he would hammer and was surprised he didn't.

and since when does thinking he's scum about to hammer override thinking town!him shouldn't hammer?

[Hero at Heart]

honestly the more i look at it the less ari's case on me makes sense to me

i feel she's been mischaracterizing my scum meta, mischaracterizing my play this game, and using contradictory assumptions about how i would play scum to scumcase me.

if she's town i sincerely feel we just lose here because we'll both get mislimmed.

oh well, it's not like i didn't predict this happening.

VOTE: aristeia

[Aristeia]

its amusing that you are trying to guilt trip me to manipulate me to stop pushing you while also claiming i am the most likely to be mafia.

[Aristeia]

i feel she's been mischaracterizing my scum meta, mischaracterizing my play this game, and using contradictory assumptions about how i would play scum to scumcase me.

this is also kind of questionable because you are telling me I'm not allowed to show everyone else which game I'm metaing your play off of.

if you think i'm lying about how you play scum - why won't you let me cite the game I'm using to meta you? If it's actually contradictory they can read it for themselves and see that I'm lying about how you play scum? instead you say I'm not allowed to show them what I mean while also saying I'm lying about how you play mafia alignment.

[Aristeia]

if she's town i sincerely feel we just lose here because we'll both get mislimmed.

if we are both town and we both lose then we both lose.

not a single player has actually bothered to try to convince me to vote anyone else today.

we're pretty close to deadline and nobody is really trying to do anything else other than vague "ooh I want to hear from bella why won't she play the game"

like maybe bella is town who doesn't care about the game, maybe she's mafia who doesn't care about the game, who really knows? is threatening to lim her going to make her readable? no because she can just ghost the game because that's what bella does when she plays games, she ghosts a fair amount of time, just like mala does. it sucks but it is what it is.

one thing that's missing is you don't seem to be very convinced that Bella is mafia for lurking like you were convinced mala was mafia for lurking. seems like lurking is only a scum tell for you when you can actually get the person yeeted.

you're flailing, I still think you're mafia. if we lose we lose it's whatever maybe next time people will actually play the game they signed up for instead of sitting on the fence twiddling their thumbs and doing absolutely nothing.

[Ausuka]

Prodding Bellaphant.

[Ausuka]

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[Ausuka]

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[Ausuka]

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[Ausuka]

Votecount 3.3

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2023-10-25 18:39:02).

Elimination Votes

Hero at Heart (1)

- Aristeia
Aristeia (1)

- Hero at Heart

Not Voting (3)

- Bellaphant, Merlyn, implosion

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