Toriel's Patience (end)

[Lazy Shirou]

the unique actual scum i think you may have pushed so far is potentially either Ari or Key, and i think one of those at least is prob town

[Dannflor]

V/LA 24 hours

will do my best to catch up before then but no promises

[implosion]

VOTE: Implosion
Let's nudge here, why don't we?

VOTE: implosion

????

You know what, i'm not gonna ask anymore, i'm just gonna hope someone that's good at the game gives me some guidance while I figure out where my head is at.

I think this reaction would be kind of incredible to fake as scum. Like, I've been vaguely lurking and beeboy has been talking about thinking their wagon was scum driven and so i feel like replying to beeboy jumping on me with a ???? after beeboy just listed me near the bottom of their reads list the previous page is just like, something scum who care sharply about how they're perceived would never do. I think sakura is already (widely?) townread but this cements it pretty hard for me sort of in the vein of the philosophy that I think Shirou mentioned earlier of trying to read people off a few key posts, which I think I kind of agree with or at least am interested in thinking about as a philosophy of forum mafia.

[implosion]

I have very mixed feelings on beeboy's current trajectory. I think the part of it that I see as unlikely to come from scum is that just literally calling every single person on your wagon scum is I think a somewhat unnatural reaction to have as scum, I think as scum you get to choose what your reads are and so the normal thing to do is to like, pick a token person on your wagon whomst you will say is actually town and then lambast the rest of it. The counterpoint to this is that beeboy is coming back from a long break so I could see them theoretically being kind of lazy as scum and just falling in to pushing all the people pushing them. But I think I am tending to think it's probably town, I don't really see a good reason for scum beeboy to decide to wake up and choose violence in this way. It just kind of puts them at the center of narratives and in the spotlight and embroils them in conflict and idk what the point would be when simpler options exist.

In a dramatic turn of irony i am now going to call beeboy the only townie on my wagon (nah but i am about to call meuh scum i think)

[implosion]

VOTE: Implosion
Let's nudge here, why don't we?

I do think that I have a pretty good read record lately actually, the issue is that I'm too busy being mislimmed to do much with said reads!

i kind of despise this vote and follow-up for some reason. Possibly because I know that I'm town and so I'm tempted to just BoP the person who voted me and then immediately said that her reads are really good lately, but she's not actually calling me scum with this vote, she's aggressively not calling me scum with the very noncommittal phrasing of the vote, but then immediately saying she has really good reads? It's just like sort of mentally incongruous, she votes me in a way that seems not motivated by a read (or at least not a materially strong one, though she can correct me) but then mazkes this next post 5 minutes later about how her reads are good lately, it's just like, I don't know why she makes that comment after making a vote that strongly looks like it's just prodding a lurker to start doing something.

Unvote

VOTE: Meuh

[implosion]

i guess you can try to argue (and many already have) that beeboy's readlist is kinda "convenient" with for example me that is defending them at the top along with the universal town Taly, and most people voting him at the bottom.

however my own readlist would be similar enough to his so i don't have an issue with it.

This is an interesting sentiment to me because (as I just said) i think they're really inconvenient reads to have as scum.

I think the actual odds of there being 2 scum in a sample of 5 random people is actually pretty high as well :V

For reference, if you are town and you sample 5 random people in a list of the 13 other players in the game, 3 of whom are scum, the probability of there being 2 or 3 scum in that group of 5 is about 31% (namely, (3 * 10 choose 3 + 10 choose 2) / 13 choose 5). So yeah it's not awful odds. But it's also not really actionable to say "i think there are 2 scum in this group of 5" because even if you're right, you still only have a 40% chance of hitting scum.

I wanna say stuff about Merlyn but I think I might need more data to read her, I feel like if she's scum she's going to be playing in a way where she's very aware that her play will be getting compared to coalition so she'd be trying to replicate that so I'm not super confident on her atm but I would like to be more confident on her

[implosion]

he feels like he's being a wallflower and his comments about being busy with board games reminds me of his comments about being busy traveling.

i dont want to be uncharitable and come down hard on him because he's such a nice guy and the deadlines are pretty long so I am just waiting to see what he does atp.

the ev calculations about sparing dunnstral felt kind of nice and reminded me of our guardians game together but he doesn't feel like he wants to be here.

when he said he wanted to interact in realtime i popped in to talk to him and he just didnt feel like he was very enthuiastic to interact with me.

I think i got distracted by something else shortly after you popped in. I don't remember if I actually posted this or if I just typed it up and then didn't post it but I am kind of expecting my fervor for this game to wax and wane somewhat arbitrarily - I am very much interested in the game and enthusiastic to play it on some level (which should be evidenced by this page of the thread, because I have a lot of thoughts buzzing in my head at this exact moment even though I should sleep soon) but some combination of real life and, importantly, the fact that this thread is going Too Fucking Fast most of the time is making it hard to maintain that level of interest with any consistency.

I don't know how I actually feel about interacting in real time in general, I think at one point in my life I probably thought it was a weakness of my scum game but it doesn't like, excite me at all on day one in a 14 player game. To me it's a tool to use once there's a bunch of stuff out there and a history to the game to really hash out with someone, and we're not at that stage yet. D1 is sort of a weakness of mine as town anyway, I think my d1 reads are very often mediocre to terrible and I was very much describing (or trying to describe) my towngame accurately in coalition when I said I like to rely on townreads early on and then audit them later. It's very very common for me to go all of d1 without getting a single real scumread. When I do get d1 scumreads I don't think they're especially accurate. I think my reads tend to get fairly significantly better as the game goes on though.

[implosion]

Anyway. Let's wrap up the post chain with a summary of where I'm at with everyone.

Very Much Locktown: Mandate, Sakura. It'd take a hell of a lot to convince me away from either of them.

Town: Brown Eyes, Keyleth

Probably Town but not as confident as above: beeboy, Dunn (only townread I think I haven't talked about at all yet, but kind of a gut feels-like-he's-playing-like-i-remember-his-towngame-looking)

Town, but will need to be audited sooner than other townreads: Dannflor

Town, but I still have reservations: Taly

Still gotta sort: Ari, Merlyn, Alisae

Also in the still gotta sort tier, but I'm choosing to put him separately not because I think he's scummier than the other people in the tier but because it'll make him angry: Shirou

I saw a thing I don't like and don't remember seeing anything I thought was particularly town but I am definitely going to go look over more stuff later: Meuh

[Dunnstral]

I think the part of it that I see as unlikely to come from scum is that just literally calling every single person on your wagon scum is I think a somewhat unnatural reaction to have as scum, I think as scum you get to choose what your reads are and so the normal thing to do is to like, pick a token person on your wagon whomst you will say is actually town and then lambast the rest of it.

They called Taly town and the rest mafia.

[Dunnstral]

I've explained my reads on everybody. I believe I've gone into at least some detail on why I am reading players as town. It's not really surprising, or it shouldn't be.

can you explain the implosion townread?

I liked their early analysis and their EV posting. It is a lazier read admittedly, but I don't see their posting as scummy.

[Taly]

what reservations do you have with my slot

implo

?

[Taly]

and would you say it is accurate your recent activity is due to the wagon formation?

[Taly]

Beeboy/me towncore so real

Yeah that’s kind of my main issue there too, I just don’t buy Beeboy’s overall perspective as being one a townie truly believes in, but I can see scum make it up

????

[Taly]

am i reading the same player as half this game like

VOTE: Meuh

[Taly]

is there humor that's genuinely being lost on me rn?

[Taly]

the unique actual scum i think you may have pushed so far is potentially either Ari or Key, and i think one of those at least is prob town

why

implosion

?

[Taly]

i dont feel like ive resolved my opinion of

beeboy

, i think its not impossible my grievances are playstyle, yet they dont possess very detailed reads and POV's

i find their thoughts about their wagon somewhat relatable, albeit likely incorrect as i townread several of the wagon

the dynamic of voting should change for the read to become more effective

[Taly]

I'm second-guessing my take on

Merlyn

simply because of the post-poning response on

Meuh

.

Like, am I getting tunnely here?

[Aristeia]

i dont feel like ive resolved my opinion of

beeboy

, i think its not impossible my grievances are playstyle, yet they dont possess very detailed reads and POV's

i find their thoughts about their wagon somewhat relatable, albeit likely incorrect as i townread several of the wagon

the dynamic of voting should change for the read to become more effective

I liked beeboy's posting on page 53 - he felt a lot more confident than I've ever seen him post as mafia.

[Taly]

I'm surprised not many people confidently townread

Dunn

, it is one of the easiest reads for me.

pedit

i dont feel like ive resolved my opinion of

beeboy

, i think its not impossible my grievances are playstyle, yet they dont possess very detailed reads and POV's

i find their thoughts about their wagon somewhat relatable, albeit likely incorrect as i townread several of the wagon

the dynamic of voting should change for the read to become more effective

I liked beeboy's posting on page 53 - he felt a lot more confident than I've ever seen him post as mafia.

I got that too.

What about

Dunn

?

[Taly]

is it an accurate characterization that i am tunneling

meuh

,

ari

?

[Taly]

Time for your daily dose of sapphic energy

honorable mention: Casual by Chapell Roan - idk how the site feels about explicit music about sex, haha

[Meuh]

VOTE: Implosion
Let's nudge here, why don't we?

I do think that I have a pretty good read record lately actually, the issue is that I'm too busy being mislimmed to do much with said reads!

i kind of despise this vote and follow-up for some reason. Possibly because I know that I'm town and so I'm tempted to just BoP the person who voted me and then immediately said that her reads are really good lately, but she's not actually calling me scum with this vote, she's aggressively not calling me scum with the very noncommittal phrasing of the vote, but then immediately saying she has really good reads? It's just like sort of mentally incongruous, she votes me in a way that seems not motivated by a read (or at least not a materially strong one, though she can correct me) but then mazkes this next post 5 minutes later about how her reads are good lately, it's just like, I don't know why she makes that comment after making a vote that strongly looks like it's just prodding a lurker to start doing something.

Unvote

VOTE: Meuh

1295 was a reflection I had on 1293, not an assertion that I have good reads and therefore should be followed on you. Kind of confused why you thought it was? I did peek at your ISO and came out of it just feeling kinda meh, my vote was for the purposes of applying pressure mostly cause I got the impression you could be scum but wanted some more substance
Also your argument for Beeboy town kinda falls apart when you remember Taly voting for Beeboy? Which I’m also confused as to how you missed because it was just brought up

[Taly]

wait that was a decent post from

meuh

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Meuh]

Beeboy/me towncore so real

Yeah that’s kind of my main issue there too, I just don’t buy Beeboy’s overall perspective as being one a townie truly believes in, but I can see scum make it up

????

am i reading the same player as half this game like

VOTE: Meuh

is there humor that's genuinely being lost on me rn?

The joke there is that Beeboy and I were just voting for each other and that a towncore of us would be unconventional and unrealistic, but I’m mentioning it because we just started voting together for a third player.