Large Normal 246: Game Over

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Using this pagetop to announce dave's scumday is my birthday

[davesaz]

davesaz, do you remember 4 hours ago when you made this post?

Is there uh, anything I can do to help dave?

Quote things and say what you think about them would be a good start. More than just like or don't like. For me to evaluate your alignment (or anyone's) I need to know if what you say makes sense given the events, and that's pretty well impossible without a fair amount of because clauses.

In light of this post, do you think it is fair to say that you are not following your own standards for others as written above?

I made a post about you. I didn't elaborate because I didn't want to seem to be offensive, but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.
I had a similar aha moment in a recent game about someone else who happens to be in this game, and flipping that person's meta turned out to be spot on as a scumtell, at least in that game.
So I'm giving it a go here to see if there's anything to it.

[Dunnstral]

My bad :oops:

Yes I scumread Davesaz and I believe that is what prompted them to vote for me.

When asking them their reasons for voting me they replied in a vague way to make it seem coincidental.

I am pointing out that their response does not fit with what they expect other people to do as they wrote in 693. I'd equate what they wrote to "like or don't like" rather than using because clauses to explain what they mean. They are being inconsistent in how they apply they reasoning.

So why is that? The way I see it, either they simply don't hold themselves to the same standard they expect from others, in which case this is not a smoking gun, and they could be either town or mafia. The other possibility is that once questioned about the reason for their vote, they lied about it and wasn't able to give supporting information, as it is not a real thought process and also not something they thought to fake ahead of time; hence the vague response which is at odds with what they said earlier.

[TimmerRC]

Can someone explain the case on Celebloki?

Spoiler: case highlighted in color

I've also been in a lot of games that Random Nurse was in a the start, my RVS vote on him is basically because I knew he wasn't going to show.

VOTE: Celebloki

It feels strange to me that nobody else took issue with this for the same reason I did. Guillotina voted here but not for the same reason.

The issue I have with this post is it reveals that Celebloki wanted a 'safe' RVS vote. Who but scum wants that?

Who but scum even thinks "I know this guy isnt going to show so I'll vote him in RVS"

If you're doing this as town you can just not vote. This is scum trying to fit in during RVS and now that we're out of it he felt comfortable enough to admit it.

He slipped imo

Who but scum even thinks "I know this guy isnt going to show so I'll vote him in RVS"

If you're doing this as town you can just not vote. This is scum trying to fit in during RVS and now that we're out of it he felt comfortable enough to admit it.

He slipped imo

I always have a reason for a vote, even in RVS. It can sometimes be just because I think their name is silly, because of a previous game with that person, or any other random reason. Are you saying all townies always truly randomly vote in RVS? You had no reason to vote Nono or guillotina at the start?

Nono, no. No reason I mean.

Guillotina, yes. For that one time he was scum (that I found on D1 who then turned it around on me and got me mislimmed D1) in that one game (Chrono Trigger Chronicles: The Rise of Yakra).

I don't think townies truly "randomly" vote, no. For me I was just looking through the player list and the name caught my eye so I voted nono. Then I stopped looking at the playerlist and got back to reading the game. Later on I looked at the full playerlist and recognized Guillotina and I did have a reason for that vote.

I dont think the problem is that your vote wasnt random

, I dont think town is always going to open up a random number generator and pick someone.

The reason you had I think is scum-indicative. If you think RN isn't going to join the game, why vote there (rhetorical)? You'll never get a reaction that way and I think as town (the royal) you would want to avoid that kind of vote that does nothing when they could make a different one that might produce something.

That's why I moved my vote from Nono to Guillotina, because with Nono it was just a vote for whomever, not that likely to get attention, but I did get Guillotina's attention when he started reading

So you're entire case on Celebloki is that you think his RVS vote was safe? I don't really think scum would be concerned over the optics of an RVS vote

Does anyone else have anything more substantial?

There isn't much else to go on, I was happy to help apply some pressure there but it is def getting stale. That said they seem to have disappeared which isn't very towny imo. Town fights back against even a weak train, scum are more likely to fret in their chatroom.

[davesaz]

Using this pagetop to announce dave's scumday is my birthday

If you had joined 6 days later we'd be mirrors.

[Dunnstral]

but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.

Are you referring to this post?

[TimmerRC]

I would like to propose a plan:

Every person list 2-4 people they are sure are town with higher than 90% certainty.

Then we make a pool of 4-5 people who never get voted today.

Then we just wagon a random person who's not in the pool, and repeat the same tomorrow. If the reads are accurate, that gives 33% chance to hit scum each day, or about 60% chance to to succeed on either.

My 2 are Gamma and Nurse btw.

Not loving this idea, it seems a little too guide-the-townies-to-their-death to me.

[Gamma Emerald]

I joined 1 day after my parent’s anniversary

[TimmerRC]

If you want to be less scumread, STOP talking about how scummy or not scummy your RVS vote was, and start posting reads on OTHER players.

This sums up what I said about Celeb nicely, it seems like they is nothing in their game but quiet bewilderment about the chords against them. That said, at least they are now posting a bit more in my catch up

[davesaz]

but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.

Are you referring to this post?

Not exactly, but it's the right game.
This post is where I had the epiphany I'm referring to, about a different player in that game.

[davesaz]

I would like to propose a plan:

Every person list 2-4 people they are sure are town with higher than 90% certainty.

Then we make a pool of 4-5 people who never get voted today.

Then we just wagon a random person who's not in the pool, and repeat the same tomorrow. If the reads are accurate, that gives 33% chance to hit scum each day, or about 60% chance to to succeed on either.

My 2 are Gamma and Nurse btw.

Not loving this idea, it seems a little too guide-the-townies-to-their-death to me.

Thanks, I was having trouble thinking of words that I could use to describe my reaction.
I generally like broccoli, but that post didn't quite taste right to me.

[davesaz]

but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.

Are you referring to this post?

Not exactly, but it's the right game.
This post is where I had the epiphany I'm referring to, about a different player in that game.

Putting that a little differently -- yeah the 1st link is an example of the general type of thing, the 2nd link is evidence that this isn't the first situation where I've used that technique.
It's kinda hard to prove the negative, and it's not an invitation to go off in the weeds to get me to TR you.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

but when town you tend to push a lot of questionable theories that make very little sense.

Are you referring to this post?

Not exactly, but it's the right game.
This post is where I had the epiphany I'm referring to, about a different player in that game.

Why didn't you reply to Random Nurse when he asked specifically for anyone that has success meta-reading Gamma or earlier when he more generally asked about meta-reading anyone in the game?

Anyone here known of any of the other players her that have legitimate meta/alignment tells?

Not really. You?

Dave and Dunn I think I can tell now which they are, but I need to see more content/behavioral patterns.

Anyone here have useful information on the Scum version of Gamma Emerald?

As is I slightly Townread the slot based on gutvibes.

This is kinda just rhetorical because I'm pretty sure if you were town you should have shared since Gamma

was

scum in that game

[davesaz]

I don't think things that gut ping me are useful to others.

[Dunnstral]

So. I know you didn't like that when I posted it, but are you aware that in hindsight, It turned out that my theory was correct?

I wrote that between two replacements, one had received their initial role pm and then manually replaced out, rather than both replacements being due to not picking up any pms. One of those slots happened to be mafia, and there is a record of them posting in their pt in between the two pms.

My point is you're framing me as someone who proposes theories that

don't make sense

. However, when I linked you to a

theory that was correct

, you say that it is an example of what you are talking about. You did have a seemingly strong personal dislike of my post at the time, I'm perhaps sensing a personal bias here. I don't suppose you are saying that I open up every town game with a theory?

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Being generous and assuming we get a pool of 5 to not be limmed that contains 1 scum because its D1 and reads are gonna be bad overall - the odds of at least one success over 2 days should be closer to 40% not 60, I think. If mental math isnt hard now that I'm old

That is like mega un-generous. It's super easy to find 3-4 people who are town in a 13p, so it shouldn't be hard to find 4-5 town in a 17p.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

I don't agree on this reasoning being a good indicator of mafia.

Just to be clear, are you saying that this post by myself is not scum indicative for myself?

[davesaz]

This is kinda just rhetorical because I'm pretty sure if you were town you should have shared since Gamma was scum in that game

It's only useful if Gamma is scum here, and if she doesn't change to avoid the tell. So far Gamma in this game has been matching up well with previous town meta.

[Dunnstral]

I'm referring to, specifically, the complete lack of interest in any fluff and the overly trying hard attitude.

What I am saying is that I disagree with this reasoning, both in general and when applied to me.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Damn, seems I am POPULAR! I had FIVE notifications on pages 31 and I don't know how many posts talking about my plan on page 32 and calling me town. If this doesn't stop I might turn into a tomato!

[Broccoli Quest 2]

I'm referring to, specifically, the complete lack of interest in any fluff and the overly trying hard attitude.

What I am saying is that I disagree with this reasoning, both in general and when applied to me.

Ohhhh okay makes sense.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Question, Dunn: Why do you TR me then if you disagree with everything I said so far?

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Anyway I think Black asked who would be a good wagon rn since she doesn't want Naerys. My answer is one of Kawaii/Hu Tao/CSF.

VOTE: Hu Tao

[davesaz]

So. I know you didn't like that when I posted it, but are you aware that in hindsight, It turned out that my theory was correct?

I wrote that between two replacements, one had received their initial role pm and then manually replaced out, rather than both replacements being due to not picking up any pms. One of those slots happened to be mafia, and there is a record of them posting in their pt in between the two pms.

My point is you're framing me as someone who proposes theories that

don't make sense

. However, when I linked you to a

theory that was correct

, you say that it is an example of what you are talking about. You did have a seemingly strong personal dislike of my post at the time, I'm perhaps sensing a personal bias here. I don't suppose you are saying that I open up every town game with a theory?

I would dislike that specific approach (doing any kind of reads based on whether people flake upon seeing role pm) coming from anyone.

There is more nuance to the meta than a single example can convey. The technique I'm trying to use goes roughly like: player does things that I don't like; I scumread them; they're usually town when this happens and scum when it doesn't; I start looking for an absence of things I don't like. I have no idea whether this is going to work or not. It only applies to people I'm always getting spectacularly wrong.

[Black]

Anyway I think Black asked who would be a good wagon rn since she doesn't want Naerys. My answer is one of Kawaii/Hu Tao/CSF.

VOTE: Hu Tao

Why Hu Tao?