Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[Hu Tao]

Hi.

[Hu Tao]

I used a binomial calculator to get these numbers on the probability of these shipment configurations occurring (only counting the town players because this is the POV that scum will have if we follow this strat):
0L-5C: 0.03125
1L-4C: 0.15625
2L-3C: 0.3125
3L-2C: 0.3125
4L-1C: 0.15625
5L-0C: 0.03125

Treat these configurations as distinct rather than collapsing them and consider the Linen to be inspected every time (in actuality this will be random, but you could reverse the L and C and the numbers are the same. Scum are guessing the PA from amongst the off-wagon players (the Copper number plus 2) and if they are correct they gain a nightkill to POE their TD guess down to the Copper Number (if they guess the PA then the PA is removed from the denominator and the NK removes one more, or in the case of 5-0 wagon, scum just win due to the PA guess + the TD guess).

Here are the odds of scum guessing the TD in each configuration

if we mislim on D2

, which includes their ability to POE by guessing the PA:
0L-5C: 100% (If we mislim with 5 clears it means we killed a PR so there is only 1 potential PR left for scum to guess)
1L-4C: (1/6 guess * (1/5 NK TD + (4/5 miss NK * 1/4 guess TD))) + (5/6 fail * 1/6 guess TD) = 20.5%
2L-3C: (1/5 guess * (1/4 NK TD + (3/4 miss NK * 1/3 guess TD))) + (4/5 fail * 1/5 guess TD) = 26.0%
3L-2C: (1/4 guess * (1/3 NK TD + (2/3 miss NK * 1/2 guess TD))) + (3/4 fail * 1/4 guess TD) = 35.4%
4L-1C: (1/3 guess * (1/2 NK TD + (1/2 miss NK * 1/1 guess TD))) + (2/3 fail * 1/3 guess TD) = 55.6%
5L-0C: 100% (If we mislim with 5 clears it means we killed a PR so there is only 1 potential PR left for scum to guess)

Multiply the odds of each configuration occurring by scum's chance to guess the TD and we get scum's EV in the D2 mislim scenario. Note that if we eliminate scum on D2 that they do not get to know if their PA guess was correct because we move straight to their guessing game before N2, which is when they would learn whether they guess correctly.

0L-5C: (0.03125 * 1) +
1L-4C: (0.15625 * .205) +
2L-3C: (0.3125 * .26) +
3L-2C: (0.3125 * .354) +
4L-1C: (0.15625 * .556) +
5L-0C: (0.03125 * 1) = 37.3% chance to have guessed or killed the TD by the end of D3 if we fail to eliminate scum on D1 or D2

I need to run some additional numbers on the distribution of wagons if all the townies randomly choose between all 3 products instead of between 2 - the distributions may end up being more favorable that way. I won't have time to do this until tomorrow though.

I didn't know I signed up for math class

[Hu Tao]

Ahoy, what are your opinions on tea?

I like tea

[Hu Tao]

Alive

1. Hu Tao
   
2. Roden
   
3. Dunnstral
   
4. atsi
   
5. HighPrincessErinys
   
6. SirCakez
   
7. Claptastik
   
8. Celebloki
   
9. ssbm_Kyouko
   
10. Gamma Emerald

So here's our list of 10 above. After someone dies, take me for example, re-number the list as though the dead player is gone and split the shipments as follows:

Alive after D1 elimination

1. Hu Tao
   
   
2. Roden
   
   
3. Dunnstral
   
   
4. atsi
   
   
5. HighPrincessErinys
   
   
6. SirCakez
   
   
7. Claptastik
   
   
8. Celebloki
   
   
9. Gamma Emerald

Ships Linen

Ships Copper

Ships Wheat

This is fine. I think we just renumber after we decide who to remove today.

[Hu Tao]

No elimination is a bad move, I feel. Smugglers win if both are alive on day 3.

Agreed

[Hu Tao]

This ISO, woof.

VOTE: atsi

This ISO, woof.

Agreed, but to tell the truth, I don't think yours is much better.

I was going to say something similar so I like this from clap

[Hu Tao]

In my heart I want to vote for scum rather than go straight to the mechanical approach. But, logically, the numbers don't add up. 10 players. 6 to lim. Scum can't benefit from busing. So, to hit scum, we need 6 of 8 town to agree. That's not going to happen. Whoever we lim today, they're going to be town, so it makes sense to go with the plan.

Since we're using the mechanical approach, additional time talking today is more beneficial to scum than town.

VOTE: Kyouko

Here's the shipping plan. Variation from this is a scum claim. I'm shipping Linen.

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Why do you follow their plan if you think their scum?

[Hu Tao]

So I don't understand why we are voting out kyouko? Why not just scumhunt and vote someone we actually think is scum?

[Hu Tao]

Someone in the PT will remind Hu to shop copper dw

I can just read at night no need to ask my pt

[Hu Tao]

Pls confirm which item you are shipping

I thought I already said I was fine with the plan. Sorry.

[Hu Tao]

I get the impression that Hu Tao hasn't really read any of the mech talk that's been done.

Why?

[Hu Tao]

I would also prefer to not flip them

[Hu Tao]

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Just snipping this for Hu Tao since I'm worried from the way they've confirmed what they'll ship that they are being intentionally vague about what they're agreeing to do ("the plan"). There have been 3 plans that I've thrown around toDay so just want to remind everyone it's not being done in the playerlist order

I don't know why this needs to be said like 5 times. I said I understand and agreed with the plan. but thanks

[Hu Tao]

Pls confirm which item you are shipping

I thought I already said I was fine with the plan. Sorry.

I'm starting to think we should just lim Hu Tao at this point since she still hasn't said

which item

she intends to ship.

? I'm pretty sure it's pretty simple to figure out which post I was talking about. This seems like pointless shade

[Hu Tao]

Pls confirm which item you are shipping

I thought I already said I was fine with the plan. Sorry.

I'm starting to think we should just lim Hu Tao at this point since she still hasn't said

which item

she intends to ship.

Kind of agree, the vagueness Kyouko's talking about is giving me bad vibes. We need people to

cooperate

here.

Okay, riddle me this. If I was scum why would I even risk being 'vague' even though it's clear that I said I agree with the plan already. I think this is pretty surface level read and I'm not sure how to read it.

[Hu Tao]

How to read the last two posts:

We should lim Hu... but I'm not going to be the one to cast the first vote.

Scummy af.

I agree atsi's post was scummy, especially after we were saying not to vote ssbm. Ssbm probably town and atsi scum

[Hu Tao]

I'm not sure it would seriously believe that as town. So Hpe could be scum. I'm not sure if it would be scum with atsi though. Hmm.

[Hu Tao]

If we’re yeeting someone that isn’t kyouko I’d prefer atsi

Big agree

[Hu Tao]

I'm still like 90% on board to follow the plan, but maybe this is just as easy as yeeting Hu Tao now and making the other smuggler guess the TD D1.

This doesn't line up with your other posts. For someone so worried about me not knowing the plan, why are you only 90% sure you want to even follow this plan?

[Hu Tao]

Only Hu hasn't confirmed what they are shipping, Cakez also said 2 things, but I assume he knows he should do Copper.

I get the impression that Hu Tao hasn't really read any of the mech talk that's been done.

I was wanting people to explicitly post what they were shipping based on Kyouko's post so there was no confusion.

[Hu Tao]

Yes, caught me. I got that juicy smuggler pm. I'm scumreading HPE for having not the best logic on why I would be scum for being 'vague'

[Hu Tao]

There is this false narrative that I was being vague or against the plan. When neither of those th8ngs were ever the case

[Hu Tao]

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I'm shipping

Copper

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I like this plan, and I agree to ship

Wheat

.

I'd rather flip Atsi instead of Kyouko tbh.

VOTE: Atsi

I think we just proceed at this point. Everyone should chime in with the 3x3 Kyouko made and confirm what they are Shipping. I'm shipping

Copper

I have intent to vote Kyouko, but again, I don't want people to argue tomorrow that they got confused.

I'm shipping

Copper

Linen

on my end then.

I'll be shipping

Linen

tonight.

I will ship

wheat

I'll ship Wheat

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Cakes you ship Copper.

I'm shipping Linen.

Everyone has confirmed which item they are shipping, except for Hu Tao. When asked directly what item she intends to ship, it's always a vague answer like "I agree with the plan" instead of just answering the question.

I literally copied the wheat post and said yes i confirm. This is fake outrage. I've seen you as town and this is not comparable to before.

VOTE: atsi

[Hu Tao]

Ok but what if it is just Atsi and we don't even have to engage the main mechanic of the set up

I think it's just atsi too at this point

[Hu Tao]

So if a lot of these people vote atsi maybe I will

Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Well that's 2 of 6 already. You should take atsi's spot in shipping

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: atsi

3/6

[Hu Tao]

I don't like the trio of (Hu, atsi, HPE)
Someone in that pile is scum

I think it's atsi over hpe right now

[Hu Tao]

Go on, show us this cool post you made where you clearly and concisely confirm what goods you're shipping tonight. Link it, quote it, do SOMETHING to prove it exists. This one'll wait.

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Just snipping this for Hu Tao since I'm worried from the way they've confirmed what they'll ship that they are being intentionally vague about what they're agreeing to do ("the plan"). There have been 3 plans that I've thrown around toDay so just want to remind everyone it's not being done in the playerlist order

I don't know why this needs to be said like 5 times. I said I understand and agreed with the plan. but thanks

How is this not saying I understand and agree

[Hu Tao]

I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her

I'm starting to think maybe it's hpe over atsi. What do you think?

[Hu Tao]

I don't think both scum would be taking this same opinion

[Hu Tao]

I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her

You were just in a game with scum!HT same as me and you don't think there's similarities? You don't realize that scum!HT doesn't do that?

Ok what?? You mean the game where I was widely Town read the whole game??

[Hu Tao]

Go on, show us this cool post you made where you clearly and concisely confirm what goods you're shipping tonight. Link it, quote it, do SOMETHING to prove it exists. This one'll wait.

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki

Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Just snipping this for Hu Tao since I'm worried from the way they've confirmed what they'll ship that they are being intentionally vague about what they're agreeing to do ("the plan"). There have been 3 plans that I've thrown around toDay so just want to remind everyone it's not being done in the playerlist order

I don't know why this needs to be said like 5 times. I said

I understand and agreed with the plan

. but thanks

How is this not saying I understand and agree

Because you are NOT telling us what the HELL you are SHIPPING. Tell us! C'mon! Copper? Linen? Wheat? Tea? SOMETHING, woman.

Hope this helps

[Hu Tao]

I need to think about this. I do really think one of hpe or atsi is scum. I need to figure out which has the fakest reaction. I've seen HPE genuinely upset in a game. And this doesn't seem the same. Atsi was way calmer in clocktower in the beginning, so this is kind of a 180⁰ but, maybe I should look back on it.

[Hu Tao]

Actually looking back on clocktower, I'm going to go VOTE: HPE

[Hu Tao]

I'm sorry but HPE's outrage seems so fake to me. It's not that serious. The argument is basically: "You were good at scum last game, so this game since you aren't 100% clear on something the first time, you're probably scum again"

[Hu Tao]

If it is actually town this game, then I'm sorry and we can talk about it post game. Because I just don't understand.

[Hu Tao]

I think you should address the issue that scum!Hu Tao would likely be more self-conscious
I think that’s the biggest proponent towards not voting her

I'm starting to think maybe it's hpe over atsi. What do you think?

Is this because of the push or something else?

I think atsi could just be misguided. On looking back his questioning wasn't as bad as I first thought. I think hpe has had the worse day

[Hu Tao]

If all goes well with the gambit she doesn't get voted up and finds a way to weasel a small but fatal change in the plan that gives scum a better chance at winning come D2.

[Hu Tao]

Cele could be scum tbh, they kind of said the same thing as hpe and atsi but kind of did it in the background

[Hu Tao]

I'm still like 90% on board to follow the plan, but maybe this is just as easy as yeeting Hu Tao now and making the other smuggler guess the TD D1.

Also like I said earlier, this doesn't match the energy with the rest of the posts. They were so much into the plan, then suddenly not

[Hu Tao]

What do you two think of Dunn and Cakez?

Dunn seems okay right now. Cakes I guess could be scum. But I don't think I'd go there today

[Hu Tao]

illicit

Illicit? Like smuggling???

[Hu Tao]

Still sus of Hu Tao but at least she's made it clear now what she's shipping.

Did I?

[Hu Tao]

I'm fine with just going with the majority vote.

[Hu Tao]

I just think you're town so I don't see the reason to vote you

[Hu Tao]

[Hu Tao]

^ scum post

[Hu Tao]

Ship Inspection

The following merchants are identified as sending shipments on the ship marked for Linen last night:

atsi
HighPrincessErinys
Claptastik

The office of the Port Authority announces that upon inspection, Tea, a contraband item,

has been found

on the ship, and we will follow up in pursuit of justice, fair trade, and public health.

Respectfully signed,

the Port Authority.

Shocking!!

[Hu Tao]

I want to say it's HPE out of that group but let's take our time. No rush

[Hu Tao]

Okay. Then who ships what?

[Hu Tao]

Okay I see it now.

VOTE: HPE

[Hu Tao]

We need 1 more vote

[Hu Tao]

Scum claim.

[Hu Tao]

Not gamma but hpe

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys
I will ship

Linen

.
Claptastik ships

Copper

.

Everyone else

ships

Wheat

.

PA

checks either

Linen

or

Copper

.

We are guaranteed to catch scum if everyone follows this strat. Any deviation from this strat should be considered a scumclaim.

Quoting for recency

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Atsi

Darn I was right on Atsi but got distracted by hpe.

[Hu Tao]

UNVOTE:

Wait what do we all ship tonight?

[Hu Tao]

I think this could have been solved day 1. As long as a proper strategy was made. Ssbm mvp regardless

[Hu Tao]

The suspense

[Hu Tao]

Also HT actually being willfully ignorant shitposty town hurts my soul.

I correctly called scum but you threw me off I also wanted scum to guess me and it worked n1

[Hu Tao]

I guessed Roden as Tomboy Daughter.

[Hu Tao]

I figured being vague would make scum think I was pr