Fishythefish 472 wrote:I disagree. magnus has produced what I think is a very weak defense of RayFrost. There are three reasons he might do this –
1. He is a scumpartner of Ray, trying to prevent his lynch.
2. He is scum without Ray, trying to look good after the latter’s lynch. Note: this requires magnus to think his defence looks good, which descends into WIFOM.
3. He is a misguided townie.
What I am saying is that magnus’s defence is bad enough that I think 2 and 3 relatively unlikely. Taken in isolation, this episode would make me think that magnus was scum with Ray. If Ray is town, I see magnus’s case as pretty much a nulltell, and so I’d consider magnus pretty townie based on the rest of his play.
There’s no WIFOM in saying “magnus is making a bad case on Ray. If Ray is scum, there’s a good motivation for scum-magnus to do this. (*) So if Ray flips scum, magnus is more likely scum”.
I am not using this as an argument to lynch RF. His own slot merits that. I’m just saying that if he flips scum, we should have a good look at magnus tomorrow.
Thanks for the clarification, I can see your train of thought.
I think something is missing at (*), though. Just because the scum have a good reason to have done something doesn't mean they did it. Your argument overstresses optimal play, imo, which is not the situation at all in most mafia games.
RayFrost 478 wrote:As it is, if I gave an answer to that, it'd make me feel like I was trying to deflect attention away from myself
It really is your last chance to scumhunt, but I take it that's not something you're interested in doing, because you're scum.
I am ready to drop the hammer.
magnus_orion 479 wrote:Plus, if I were scum in a situation where one of my scum partners was to be lynched, which isn't an experience I'm unfamiliar with, my primary objective is not saving my scum partner, its making a towny look like my scumpartner's scumpartner. I'd look too scummy defending my own scum partner.
Interesting, but also WIFOM.
@chamber
:
chamber 483 wrote:If someone wants to point them out before deadline for me I'll make sure to get them answered but other then I can't promise anything (I'll try though)
OK, there's this one about Rosso. You said:
chamber 432 wrote:On rosso: Do I have a definitive scum/town meta for him? No. Have I seen him do everything he's being attacked for as town? Yes. Im mostly using my meta knowledge of him to make certain events neutral and in light of that he seems to be acting relatively towny imo.
...so I asked:
Percy 436 wrote:I'm curious as to what he has done in this game to identify himself to you as town that he hasn't done in any other game. Can you give an example?
The question is perhaps poorly phrased, so I'll have another go at it.
I'm curious as to what Rosso has done to make you think he's a townie. You're rendering all his scumtells to nulltells based on "he's done them in other games as a townie", so what makes him stand out
as a townie
in this game?
Also, a comment on this would be good too:
chamber wrote:At whatever point I reread the game I'll point out some forced actions, they are probably more subtle then you are expecting. I still have no desire to make any cases.
I don't even know what a "forced action" is.