Mini 909: Nice'n'Fun Mafia (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

/confirm

[Hoopla]

What goes in to everyone's decisions when they decide on their Day 1 lynch candidate?

[Hoopla]

Cathart, Cyberbob; what do you think about utility lynches on Day 1? For example, we give player X a 35% chance of being scum for whatever reasons, and we give player Y a 30% chance of being scum.

X is generally active, and has a known reputation of catching scum.
Y is occasionally lurky and has a poor ability to analyse players and the game state.

Is it right to lynch Y in this situation? What if the gap was wider than 5%? Or should we be lynching whoever we collectively deem as the scummiest?

[Hoopla]

RedCoyote; what is the most effective scumtell/towntell you've discovered in your time at mafiascum?

cruelty; is it okay to skim wall of text posts?

Nachomamma; do you know what the Saudi Gazette is?

[Hoopla]

cruelty; is it okay to skim wall of text posts?

Yes.

90% of content in wall posts is useless filler used to make the critical 10% seem important. Just gotta make sure you find the chocolate centre.

How are you going to find the chocolate center by skimming?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, are you going to offer any opinions of your own on the actual game? All you've had to offer so far has been questions that either belong in MD or are totally irrelevant (thinking of that question about the Saudi Gazette).

I like understanding the general philosophy of player's approaches to the game - I think this can serve to eliminate misunderstandings later on, rather than superimposing my own thought process on to what other people say, and assuming they think similarly to me.

Do you want me to analyse the game so far?

[Hoopla]

Not a fan of hoopla's hivemind mentality. Going to watch that one, too.

What does this mean?

[Hoopla]

Do you want me to analyse the game so far?

I'd like you to make a genuine stab at it, yeah. If we all just sit around throwing our hands up at the lack of information or the poor quality of the discourse then the town isn't going to get anywhere.

I'm not bemoaning the lack of information so far - I'm criticising the criticism I'm receiving for asking theory questions instead of submitting myself into the role of arguing about nothing.

So my stance on the only real event in the game so far (the alleged scumslip), is that it is not a slip and I do not find the participants in that back-and-forth suspicious.

[Hoopla]

I've been debating with myself over this, and initially wasn't going to claim, but I've decided the safer option is to. I am a miller.

I'll explain my reasoning behind my decision later, when I finish work.

[Hoopla]

What initially made me hesitate about claiming in my opening post(s) was that this set-up was reviewed by Vi, who is notorious for disliking cops. I don't know how strong her influence on this set-up is, but having dealt with her previously, she's usually reluctant to tear down your ideas as a designer and rather offer ways to balance it.

But I've read a lot about miller strategy and what the optimum play is, and there really is no consensus either way. What tipped it for me was trying to weigh up the likelihood of being investigated versus the benefit of not claiming. The benefit of not claiming is keeping the pool of town powerroles slightly more open, and leaving the option of soaking up a night kill alive.

On the flipside, it is significantly more damaging (despite being less likely) if I get investigated, waste the Day 2 lynch

and

out a powerful town role, which is why I think it is right to claim.

[Hoopla]

unvote, vote tracker

Let's get this party started kids.


Interested in the claim, as hito said it's basically null. I tend to think though that it'd take some balls for scum to claim miller this early day 1 with no pressure, it's at the very least an attention getter.

Cruelty, why have you put The Tracker at L-2 without explanation?

---

Unvote

VOTE: The Tracker

Switching back to what it was before I changed

Is it really necessary to switch your vote back to this;

VOTE: The Tracker

For also liking Pokemon

[Hoopla]

I like hitogoroshi's play so far - he's the strongest town read I have. It's easy for scum to take advantage of a sedate town, so his activity and probing is good behavior. I'm going to help him kickstart the Quagmire wagon.

Vote: Quagmire

[Hoopla]

I still don't have much to add... the wagon building on me is silly but probably necessary, I don't have any solid enough scum reads yet, and only two people read town to me so far. I believe I've commented on everything else.

Have you read your role PM?

[Hoopla]

I still don't have much to add... the wagon building on me is silly but probably necessary, I don't have any solid enough scum reads yet, and only two people read town to me so far. I believe I've commented on everything else.

Have you read your role PM?

Whether he did or not is irrelevant to his amount of participation.

It isn't irrelevant, as it means you can not possibly find anything he does as scummy.

[Hoopla]

The mod would've said something if he didn't open his role PM

Opening doesn't equate to reading.

[Hoopla]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 53&start=0

here's a recent thread

[Hoopla]

Have you read your role PM?

It doesn't matter. For today, he's town. Tomorrow, we'll monitor his behavior and see how it changes, and we'll simply throw out everything he's done today out of their minds. Policy lynching based on a playstyle you don't agree with is something I've been through before, and it just plain doesn't work in the town's benefit. Especially when you're suggesting to lynch a playstyle that only affects D1...

He is not town. He is not anything at the moment. Until he knows his win condition, there is no way he can work toward it. This has nothing to do with a playstyle disagreement, because he isn't playing the game.

The only way this 'tactic' could possibly be viable is if you don't tell people you didn't read your role PM. The supposed benefit is not creating any obvious links between you and scum partners, as you don't know who they are. But this benefit becomes moot when everyone knows this is your tactic.

Not reading your role PM can only possibly help your scum game (even though it won't), therefore it is scummy/anti-town, as it's an attempt to gain an advantage

only

as scum.

[Hoopla]

How many times do I have to explain this before people understand it? No matter what I am, I am working towards my win condition. If I'm town, I am actively scumhunting and finding scum (even though it may not seem as such so far, as I haven't found much, but I am). If I'm scum, I'm spending day one actively scumhunting, and that goes an incredibly long way for me for future days. The latter is the same situation if I'm third-party.

So therefore not reading my role PM advances my win condition in all three ways, therefore it is a pro-whatever-side-I'm-on move. For today, it's pro-town. Any attempt from here on out to try and manipulate this position as anti-town in the manner Hoopla just did I will consider absurd and I'm not even going to take the time to respond to it. Unless you're just disagreeing with me and want to ask me about it some more.

But if you read your role PM and you were town, you would be behaving in this manner you are now; scum-hunting, acting pro-town, whatever. You're trying to cloak your scum game by removing clues to scum partners if you are in fact scum. There is no simpler way for me to explain this, and if you don't understand I'm going to rally for your lynch based on your inability to comprehend basic concepts. You're only helping your scum game, don't try and twist it any other way.

---

Nachomamma, it is anti-town because everyone else is leaving clues to their alignment due to the knowledge they have of their roles, and their attempts to further their win condition. There is no possible way to guess what Quagmire's alignment is, as he doesn't even know himself.

I'm really annoyed you're trying to give him a free pass to Day 2, because it isn't fair on everyone else risking outing themself (or their partners) as scum and Quagmire to sit in the background twiddling his thumbs until Day 2.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla:

Would you mind offering up some kind of response to my point about you declaring Hito to be your strongest town read right after he had conveniently managed to convince a bunch of people to keep you alive? Because it seems to me like there's definitely an element of buddying there.

Hitogoroshi has been logical, concise and active all game - this wasn't as if it was his first post doing so. You're right in saying I've noticed more now that he has been supporting me - but knowing my alignment, I think there is a good chance his motivation is sincere.

It's kind of like wagon analysis, it is usually the easiest to understand what is happening when it is your wagon, because you have more personal investment in the event.

[Hoopla]

When does this scumhunting actually happen?

[Hoopla]

It is extremely interesting to see the vehemence with which Nacho is trying to defend Quag here.

I'm worried that some players, not to name names, with non-town roles might be trying take advantage of the Quagmire situation for personal gain. What do you think of that?

Vague accusations like that suck. Name names, don't be scared.

[Hoopla]

Angelmouse, where are you?

[Hoopla]

Quagmire, do you have reads on any other players? Do you still think Flareon is solidly town? Do you find any players voting you/challenging your 'playstyle' suspicious?

[Hoopla]

I've decided that under no circumstances I will read my role PM today, mostly because I want to troll Cyberbob and Hoopla some more. With that said, if I end up getting lynched, I'm ultimately no better a lynch choice than random chance... which is without question an "anti-town" way of playing the game.

Borrowing a statistic I posted a couple of months ago in Mini 865;

* Of the last 3:9 closed Mini Normals, mafia were only lynched 13 times out of 64 on Day 1.

I haven't updated this yet to include recently completed games, but I doubt town's ability to lynch scum D1 would have gone above random. As far as I am concerned, lynching anti-town play D1 is a viable strategy, as it still gives decent enough odds of hitting scum, but then has the added bonus of eliminating someone anti-town tied in. I think many players overvalue their reads (especially on D1).

[Hoopla]

Quagmire - No, I'd suggest the majority of D1 lynches are from people deluding themself into thinking they've caught some awesome scumslip. I very rarely see policy-lynches against anti-town play - occasionally a lurker will die, but even then it is rare to have them lynched purely for this reason.

[Hoopla]

This is all a big smokescreen, and I won't really have any part in it any longer. It is a waste of our time, and it's distracting most of the townies from doing anything else. I don't know whether or not it's worth using the lynch on Quagmire if only the quell this principled uproar, but I don't think everyone on his wagon is there honestly. I implore those voting him to keep a closer eye on your wagon buddies as the day marches on.

You've mentioned a couple of time that you think people (scum) are abusing the situation - but you seem to be avoiding the possibility of Quagmire scum. If he is scum, do you think his buddies would be bussing him, or trying to make use of his tactic and keep him alive?

What makes you think his wagon is scum-driven? What chance do you give his wagon being town-driven?

[Hoopla]

Someone give me some reasons of why my play is anti-town please... I'd like to shoot them town and then we'll move on. "Because it can benefit me as scum" doesn't work as an argument, because as I've already said it also benefits me as town.

I'll try again, I suppose.

Are you accurately representing your opinions about your play? I get a small inkling that you have read your role PM and you just enjoy creating drama.

If you are true about your motives, you must be assuming your play is valid and arguing your point to change the positions of those that oppose you. But your play only works for you if you're the only one doing it, as multiple players operating under the same strategy would significantly weaken your advantage, and trivialise Day 1.

Take a game of Prisoner's dilemma - where altruism is best mutual benefit for

both

players. You can occasionally be sneaky and defect to improve gain at the expense of others, but it is a mutually bad result if both players defect.

I deem your play as defecting because you are trying to gain an advantage at the expense of others. The odd curiousity is, you're trying to convince us your play is tactically sound, when it is blindingly obvious it only serves to benefit you at the expense of others (we can't guess your alignment, you can guess ours).

If others played this way (an approach you endorse), it would be a far worse net result for all players, than everyone being altruistic. It may be true that the best

personal

play is to play this way, but when others do it, it goes down the gurgler, therefore it is in your interests to keep others from doing so to maximise the benefit of your advantage.

There is no possible way to claim your action is pro-town when more people doing it would be a worse result.

[Hoopla]

In theory, that's correct. However, in reality, I'm the only one playing like this, aren't I?

Although that last sentence is false. PBPAs are a quick counterexample I can think of off the top of my head, if you're not convinced about my strategy.

Since you know more people doing it would be bad, why wouldn't you just keep it to yourself that you're playing this way? You could get your special advantage without the risk of being policy lynched (which probably outweighs any slight benefits). You then also reduce the risk of other players playing this way.

[Hoopla]

What makes you think his wagon is scum-driven? What chance do you give his wagon being town-driven?

Because it's a red herring. We're missing opportunities to get multiple wagons going. The strategy in question is causing smokescreen, and D1 is turning into a referendum on the strategy itself. You can discuss mafia politics in the Mafia Discussion forum, let's use this thread to discuss who in our town is scummy. I've proposed Flare as a D1 lynch on account of his spinelessness and flipfloping. Nacho thinks that we're letting The Tracker get away with too much. Are you interested in these cases at all, Hoopla?

It's only a red herring if he is town - this smokescreen allegation is not true, and I'd suggest that a Quagmire lynch is now quite informative of other player's alignments regardless of what he flips. The way that you're arguing this, it really seems as if you

know

Quagmire is town and are trying to rustle up some town points and throw suspicion on the policy wagon if he is lynched.

Policy lynching/pressuring anti-town play is viable Day 1 talk, just as important (sometimes more) than genuine scumhunting. Damning cases on Day 1 are not common, and are usually overstated and the percentages misinterpreted. There is no confirmed information to go off which is how most successful scumhunting operates. Policy lynches are the way forward.

~~

As for Flareon, his flipflopping is odd but I don't think it is scummy. The reverting back to the random vote is his scummiest action. It looks like a deliberate attempt to avoid stepping on any toes.

I still don't understand the Tracker case - explain it to me.

~~

Quag is getting some heat for this and i am totally convinced there is at least one scum on the wagon for his lynch and will be one of those pushing for it.

I love this statement to death. This is the kind of critical thinking that I think the game has been lacking.

I think you're mistaking critical thinking for 'guesswork'. By sheer probabilities alone, any random 5 players will more likely than not contain one scum member. This is a policy based wagon. If Quagmire is indeed town, I'd expect scum to go the other way, and not add fuel to the fire, maybe even try to condemn it and gain town points. Is my guesswork good too?

[Hoopla]

This isn't "guesswork" it is my firm belief, my reasoning is posted before. Only scum have the information that Quagmire doesn't and i firmly believe that they would use it to their advantage. If they aren't, well they are playing a bad game and deserve to lose and quickly. Yes they could go the other way and not support it, but they would have to be certain that the quagmire lynch would happen without the vote(s) and not everyone in this game agrees with policy lynches so by 'sheer probabilities alone' there must be scum on that wagon whether he is town or not. Actually whatever quagmire role, for scum he is a good lynch target today as it gives the town little to no info on day 2 and if he turns scum, yes they have lost a partner but they can say "woohoo look at my scum hunting skills" and if he turns town they can say "well his play deserved it and it was a policy lynch".

Just because i don't agree with you doesn't make my feelings and reasoning behind the game "guesswork".

Quagmire is likely to be lynched at some point - it may not necessarily be Day 1, but condemning the lynch or staying off it could be just as fine of a scum tactic as pushing it. There has been enough (almost half) of the town that have expressed distaste in Quagmires play and an extra couple who would probably join the wagon. Scum have options in their stances even if you think one way is the only possibility.

I completely disagree about the value of his lynch, too. The beauty of this event means that every player has posted an opinion, argued, defended and reacted to Quagmire's claim. Very rarely in mafia do you get a constanst variable to compare information on. Usually you're comparing apples to oranges (ie; is X's defense on Y more scummy than Z's role claim or J's buddying with K). This is where human error and scum manipulation kick in.

Because we have had the whole town talking about the same event it means Quamire's flip is very important, as every player has ties with him (even if he has no ties to them).

[Hoopla]

@Red: the reason i didn't vote someone on the quagmire wagon is that i am not convinced on which one it is. After posting last time i did have a chance to re-read some of the game and think about changing some of my positions on players and will def be taking into account where peoples vote lie at this point in time.

Which is likelier, one, two, three scum on Quagmire's wagon?

[Hoopla]

I think you're mistaking critical thinking for 'guesswork'.

Well, technically speaking, the entire game is guesswork short of an open game or possibly a confirmed investigation. Are you trying to say that, despite it being likely that there is a scum on the Quagmire wagon, it's useless to try and figure out who it is? Explain why this statement puts you off, because I think it's something that needs to be said to a group of people who may or may not be letting their mafia philosophies cloud their scumhunting.

Of course - but her guesswork is inconsistent with where her vote lies, and irrelevant if she only thinks there is one scum on the wagon (as there is a better chance of scum being off it ). If she thinks there are multiple scum on the wagon she should be taking the 2/3 in 5 chance and placing her vote there, rather than taking the 0/1 in 6 chance.

It's silly.

[Hoopla]

If it comes down to a choice between Tracker and No Lynch I'll switch back to him without a second thought, but I don't want to give up on the Quag wagon just yet. I'll be around between now and the deadline, don't worry.

Echoing these sentiments.

~~

Tracker, what exactly does an FBI agent do?

[Hoopla]

Unvote

VOTE: Quagmire

If we have a serial killer then we need the trackers help, Quagmire is the only other person that will have a majority by the time the deadline hits

The information we get from his role if he's truthful, is that if there is two-kill nights, it's likely a SK. Actually finding a SK from one of his investiagtions is very unlikely - I'm sure he'd be killed if a SK thought it was a chance he'd be targeted.

[Hoopla]

I think I believe the roleclaim, but it isn't strong enough to keep him alive if the rest of the town find him scummy. Still wanting a Quagmire lynch, here.

[Hoopla]

I cut myself off there because speculation is bad but you asked.

A doctor could protect tracker so the SK can't get rid of him but now that I said it the SK probably wouldn't kill tracker.

Don't assume any role is in the set-up - doctor isn't a guarenteed role, like some other mafia websites (or real life mafia).

Even if there was a doctor, I'd rather it protect a pro-town player than worry about saving Tracker. His role is not as valuable as you think it is.

[Hoopla]

it's more valuable then a VT role

but not enough to deter a lynch if the town deemed him scummy enough. his powers have been significantly compromised by being outed. it isn't a worthwhile investment to keep a scummy player alive for a very slim chance at catching an SK.

we'll see what the rest of the town thinks though, but whatever we do, we need to do it quickly. Quagmire and Tracker are really the only options with enough support to beat the deadline.

[Hoopla]

I agree that a lynch is better than none. Tracker I think it's tine to claim.

FBI Agent

Looking back over the last page, I really don't like this passage of play. Tracker

and

Quagmire were both at L-3, however angelmouse pushes a claim from Tracker. Granted, we are close to deadline, but the ease and readiness from Tracker to claim feels off.

The most damning thing is Quagmire probably had more support for a lynch, but angelmouse pushed for a Tracker claim based on her own opinion of the candidates, not the collective town's. This is either bad town play, or a clever defense on Quagmire, as another claim right now might not be a good idea for the town. This increases Tracker's chance of lynch by a lot.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, whether you believe it or not is up to you. Angel pushed for a claim and I figured I was at L-1 because of that.

I seriously don't believe that. And even if it is true, your reads aren't worth much because it shows you're not paying any attention to the game.

[Hoopla]

I cut myself off there because speculation is bad but you asked.

A doctor could protect tracker so the SK can't get rid of him but now that I said it the SK probably wouldn't kill tracker.

Why do you think there is a doctor?

Not relevant. Stop fishing.

[Hoopla]

You guys are seriously cutting it fine. Hito, just hammer, I have no idea why you're dragging this out until the very last hour. There is no reason to.

[Hoopla]

What else were you expecting to see by waiting an extra 6 hours?

[Hoopla]

A Tracker flip does not bode well for our Miller claim.

How does the CPR doctor flip and lack of second night kill bode for our FBI Agent claim then?

[Hoopla]

Well, the role PM warned me there was a chance there was no SK. But I knew a wagon was going to start and if I get lynched anyway, eh, it happens.

I 95% believe Tracker's claim, based on the knowledge I have of my role.

I fail to imagine a set-up where an SK can currently exist. Trying to balance a mini-normal with three killing roles is ridiculous, even for someone zany like Cruciare. Without an NK now, it isn't even worth considering.

The symmetry with the FBI Agent/CPR Doctor (Vig) and Miller/Tracker combinations seem too purposeful to fabricate. An important thing to note is that my claim, and Tracker's came before these confirmed flips. This means it eliminates the possibility of planned claims based on set-up knowledge. From my perspective, it is far more likely that this is a set-up gimmick, rather than scum-Tracker getting lucky with a fakeclaim that locks in with other roles. Although, having the knowledge a miller/tracker combination exists probably gives me more reason to believe this theory than other townspeople.

~~

Current suspects are RedCoyote and angelmouse, but I'll discuss that a bit later on.

[Hoopla]

Angelmouse, yesterday your most valuable piece of scumhunting revolved around the Quagmire wagon. Now that he has flipped town, I'd like you to look at his lynch wagon and figure out who is there insincerely.

~~

My take on the Quagmire lynch is that it's possible scum weren't manipulating the latter stages of the lynch. This is due to a strong town read on Tracker, who was the main lynch rival of Quagmire at the end of Day 1. If this is true and both competing wagons were town, scum have far more options to either sit back or push them as they please. If one of the competing wagons is scum, it makes for far more information, but I don't think it was.

Mindgamer is currently a good wagon, but I'd like to see someone else with a few votes to vie for lynch. The worse thing that can happen today is a Mindgamer lynch (if he's town) without someone else feeling the pressure of the noose.

If my theory about two town wagons on D1 is true, it improves my RedCoyote theory of condemning the Quagmire lynch in order for town points. If there is no risk of a scum lynch (a townie leading the back-up lynch), it enables these stances for scum - a good chance to try and gain town credit by being 'right' about a situation. The way RedCoyote was arguing, it looked as if he

knew

Quagmire would flip town, and was specifically tailoring his arguments to fit this option.

Vote: RedCoyote

[Hoopla]

Can you explain further? I have never played with a tracker before and a little unfamilure with the role and how that doesn't bode well for a Miller.

The only thing that makes a Miller different than any other townie is the results you get upon a Cop's investigation. With Cyberbob flipping Tracker, one of three things must be true:

Either the town has a Tracker and a Cop role, the town has a Miller and no Cop role (defeating the purpose of the Miller, but the setup maybe designed to throw us off), or there is no Miller and potentially no Cop.

Lets apply this logic to The Tracker's situation now.

Either the town has a CPR Doctor (basically a vig) and an SK, the town has an FBI Agent and no SK (defeating the purpose of an FBI Agent, but the set-up may be designed to throw us off), or there is no FBI Agent and potentially no SK.

~~

So, how are you finding my claim suspicious, but not The Trackers? I think they are

very

comparable.

[Hoopla]

Here's a pop quiz for RedCoyote (and anyone else who wants to be awesome);


1. If Tracker's claim is found to be fake, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be real or fake?
2. If Hoopla's claim is found to be fake, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
3. If Tracker's claim is found to be real, is Hoopla's claim more likely to be fake or real?
4. If Hoopla's claim is found to be real, is Tracker's claim more likely to be fake or real?
5. Which is a more likely combination; Tracker/Cop or CPR Doctor/SK?
6. Which is a more likely combination; no cop/SK, SK but no cop, Cop but no SK, Cop and SK?
7. If neither a cop or SK exist in this set-up, which is more likely; an FBI agent, a miller, both miller and FBI, or neither roles?

Remember to show your work.

[Hoopla]

From my perspective, it is far more likely that this is a set-up gimmick, rather than scum-Tracker getting lucky with a fakeclaim that locks in with other roles.

I think you're trying to slip your way into The Tracker's, in my opinion, much more believable situation. I do not think FBI Agents are a common as Millers are, but I am open to being proven wrong.

Millers are more normal, although a recent trend seems to be that some mods don't tell you you're a miller. FBI Agent also can go by the name of Psychologist but is still quite uncommon. Why do you associate commonness of the role with believability?

[Hoopla]

1. I'd like to say it wouldn't have any effect, because that doesn't change the fact that it's hard for me to stomach a town with a Tracker and a Cop. It would likely make your claim more believable though.

You cannot fathom two investigation roles in the one set-up, but think three different killing roles is a real chance?

~~

Ignoring the FBI Agent/SK side of things, how do you rate the possibility of a miller with no cop?

[Hoopla]

The correct answer to Hoopla's quiz is 'stop defensively speculating about PR's and start playing the game.'

I can sort of see where she's coming from with her vote on RC. While statistically Quag was more likely to be town that scum, he did seem to be fairly strongly neglecting the possibility of Quag-scum. But Hoopla's last three posts really rub me the wrong way. I get the impression that she went for a deliberately 'hard' looking target so she can look townie, doesn't actually intend to PUSH the RC wagon but instead will just defend her claim, and will 'compromise' on a lynch later in the day. Hoopla, let's focus less on 'this is why I'm a miller' and more on 'this is why you should all vote for RC'.

Hito, the reason why I am probing is because I think RedCoyote's decision is gut, but he is trying to use logic to justify it.

Questions 1-4 were designed to identify a slightly more visual map of his suspicions of the claims. The other questions (and my previous post where I superimposed my scenario on RC's logic) create a bigger logical hole - it seems as if he genuinely believes it is a decent chance that there is an SK in this set-up (although answers 5 and 7 seem to be conficting on this issue).

Either way, it's really quite bizarre to consider an SK when there was no second nightkill

and

a town killing role has been flipped, and then NOT consider a cop because a tracker role flipped. He is freely creating suspicion on me from the logic there is probably no cop in this set-up, and letting Tracker off even though there is probably no SK.

The other reasoning behind his suspicions I don't believe. Letting The Tracker off because he claimed an uncommon role as opposed to a common role is laughable. Quick question for RC; if roles were reversed, and I had claimed FBI Agent, and Tracker had claimed Miller, would you hold the same suspicions?
~~

Hito, the day has barely begun, give me some time before I start churning out cases to break the game. This is important to me at the moment.

[Hoopla]

How about instead of this speculation nonsense, we either discuss the claims at hand (Miller, FBI Agent) and their respective likelihood alone - timing, nature - and also look into possibly lynching people who are looking scummy without claims - i.e, Mindgamer, who has been active lurking THE ENTIRE GAME.

Sure, how about you begin.

[Hoopla]

Complete thoughts on Hoopla's claim? It's bogus. Nevermind the fact that a self-aware miller is, in my opinion, bullshit. The claim had no reason to be put out there other than to basically fuck with any potential cop we have. It was unprovoked and just useless. If you're town, we gain nothing from the claim. Scum gains everything from it whether you are scum or you aren't scum. If you are scum, you basically nullify any potential investigations on yourself and leave us to a wonderful guessing game of the veracity, while as for if you aren't mafia, you've wonderfully created us this guessing game of "what the hell is going on" and your smokescreen posting and your games of 20 questions are doing nothing to help the town find the actual scum.

I'm not sure which games you've been involved in, but I've only encountered ~*~secret~*~ millers once, which was in Zoraster's recent large normal game, as opposed to 5-6 other times where miller's have knowledge they are a miller. I'm genuinely puzzled that you think self-aware millers are rare, especially when almost all miller threads in MD are about which way to play the miller role.

Town gaining nothing from my claim is a lie. I explained my motivation for claiming miller - the risk of not claiming and then being investigated by a cop is too damaging

not

to claim. The only downside is scum know I am not a powerrole and it slightly lowers the pool to catch one in. That downside is not significant compared to the outside chance of being investigated and wasting a Day 2 lynch

and

outing a cop.

This is not a massive scum advantage like you're trying to spin - as the only thing it protects me from is investigations. I think Hito summed it up well, stating my claim equated to this;

"If we have a cop, you're wasting your time investigating me."

I think I tend to get targeted at night more than random, so this was the percentage play to me. I hope you can agree too!

[Hoopla]

how do you rate the possibility of a miller with no cop?

It's possible. Are you implying there is a theme to the roles?

Letting The Tracker off because he claimed an uncommon role as opposed to a common role is laughable.

Well, I answered your question, now you get to defend your side. Why? Why does claiming a more "common" role necessarily make you more believable than The Tracker?

Quick question for RC; if roles were reversed, and I had claimed FBI Agent, and Tracker had claimed Miller, would you hold the same suspicions?

Same suspicions of you or of the role situation?

I strongly think this set-up has a symmetry or gimmick, by the way The Tracker worded his post about his role. I doubt there is an SK and I doubt there is a cop.

~~

It doesn't - claims need to be assessed in the context of the game, not based on how common they are. I actually strongly believe Tracker's claim. I think the reason why some people associate rarity with believability is because when they try to catch liars, they have an imprint of previous lies and what they look like wired in their subconcious. They've seen more lies from common claims, as opposed to the obscure. Many times they discount the other angle of seeing more truth's from common claims, as opposed to the obscure. You need to weigh up the for/against from both sides, rather than just adding up the for, because you'll always remember more lies in common claims.

That probably doesn't make much sense, so allow me to give another example. Say you're the boss of a small company, and two of your workers call in absent. One claims to be feeling sick. The other claims to be unavailable due to a swarm of maniacal termites eroding a wooden beam in their garage, crushing the bonnet of their car.

Which would you believe more? Probably the obscure, detailed excuse as you've never encountered this type of lie before. Although as the boss, you probably wouldn't condemn the common excuse as a lie, but you'd naturally be more skeptical. I think most people have this bias.

~~

The role situation. Does the personality/ability of the player affect your decision?

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: angelmouse

Start posting or I'll tear you apart.

[Hoopla]

So your motivation was self-preservation. Cool. That's not scummy at all.

The claim doesn't help us as town, other than avoiding a mislynch. But the upside is if you're scum, an investigation doesn't give us any footing. I'd say that's pretty significant if you're scum and managed to stay off the radar, and then an investigation pops up.

The timing was unprovoked, the context wasn't useful at all, and the motivation wasn't protown.

No, it was cop preservation. The reason why I claimed is so a cop doesn't potentially waste an investigation on me, causing him to out himself. How on earth are you reading it as self-preservation?

Some players support policy lynches of millers, and they always almost come under fire/draw excessive attention to themself because of their claim. They are also hot choices for vig kills. If this is self preservation, then I'm doing it wrong.

You make it seem as if the worse case scenario (by not claiming) is not a big deal at all. Outing a cop falsely for a mislynch is a disasterous situation for the town. Claiming miller is not explicitely pro-town, because it narrows the pool of power roles for scum to hit. But it is a far better situation than the worse case scenario in not claiming and being investigated. Both are negative results, but claiming is imo the lesser of two evils. Therefore it was the protown decision.

[Hoopla]

My vote on Mindgamer isn't a lurker vote. And the reason I dislike Hoopla's vote is not because it's "easy" - it's because it's an easy vote after she assured me her points on RC and the ensuing PR discussion was something very important and it seems it all has amounted to absolutely nothing.

My vote on angelmouse is temporary, unless she doesn't start posting. I requested information from her three days ago. Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about RC!

It's also an important vote. The vote is the most important tool the town has - it can be used to gain information, threaten and to create a visual representation of every player's suspicion. Utilizing the vote is important town play. I am voting angelmouse to get what I need out of her.

[Hoopla]

Also, Hoopla - Pressure votes fail to be pressure votes when you say they are pressure votes.

I don't remember making a pressure vote.

[Hoopla]

Also, Hoopla - Pressure votes fail to be pressure votes when you say they are pressure votes.

I don't remember making a pressure vote.

I am voting angelmouse to get what I need out of her.

My vote will stay on her if she doesn't comply - pressure votes are usually done to generate reactions. I am doing it to get what I need to hear from her.

[Hoopla]

I still disagree, but I like the way you've been arguing.

I have solid town reads on AGar, hitogoroshi and The Tracker. Who should we lynch, guys? Does it have to be Mindgamer? What are your thoughts on RedCoyote and angelmouse?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla was a town read.

Yesterday, I said that. Earlier today, I said that she had the highest chance of being the SK, if there is one. As an SK, claiming miller is a pretty good way to go, and lately the positions she's been taking (lurker votes, but not jumping on any wagons) have smelled strongly of self-preservation.

Wouldn't wagoning someone else available, ie; Mindgamer, be a better way to do the self-preservation thing? Why are lurker votes suspicious?

I'm laughing at the SK thing though - why would you even attempt to use this as a genuine point? There was no NK. It would be such a bad play to go after a supposed SK out of paranoia, rather than trying to lynch mafia.

[Hoopla]

Opening day post was #312. Thus, you are lying.

Well, I stand corrected... Hoopla still isn't a strong enough town read to no-lynch instead of lynching her.

That's helpful - I'd argue that lynching

anyone

is better than no lynching, but we should never be scrambling for lynches at deadlines.

[Hoopla]

Ok Red, let's take your vote seriously.

I seriously got the impression that cruelty voted Quagmire almost purely out of spite

, especially after their little slapfest at the end of the day. He won't agree with that characterization of course, but the town can draw their own conclusions. cruelty played a big part in artifically extending that wagon.

He either did so out of emotion and principle, being against Quagmire's D1 play, or he did so to because he did not want another wagon to garner any steam

, as lynching townQuagmire or (supposedly) townTheTracker would've been good enough.

That's inconsistent. The first bolded part, you're sure I'm basing my vote on emotion, then you're suddenly ascribing devious logic to it, saying that I artificially extended the wagon out of

either

spite or strategy.

That's not a case. That's a silly little justification for a vote with a backdoor you can quietly slip out if things don't work out.

mmm yeah, i think i side with cruelty here. hey cruelty, want to start a bandwagon on RC with me? It'll be fun.

[Hoopla]

If deadline hits us by surprise, the only people I'd rather no lynch than lynch are RC and AGar.

Nice misrepresentation. Although I must admit, I should read through the game again because I was pretty damn sure Cyberbob didn't just disappear into thin air.

And I would go after a supposed SK before no-lynching, whether "out of paranoia" or not.

Wouldn't you?

People really need to stop using this mode of thinking to justify a lynch - it's classic 'keep your options open' play, a premium for scum. Even if these are town posts, it isn't helpful, as it allows scum to manipulate play knowing that players are open to multiple lynches.

If we are scrambling for a lynch at deadline, we have such low chances of actually hitting scum. If we want to lynch scum, we need to organise it before it's too late.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: RedCoyote

[Hoopla]

Hey Ed, earn yourself some early town points and jump on the RedCoyote wagon.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla still may snap out of whatever trance she's in, but even if she doesn't, I don't see a cruelty or Nacho lynch as unreasonable. I think, when push comes to shove, I can put together scenarios for both of those wagons. Mindgamer is of course still the favorite, I think, in everyone's book, but it's most definitely not a sure thing.

What trance is that, mister?

[Hoopla]

If we are scrambling for a lynch at deadline, we have such low chances of actually hitting scum. If we want to lynch scum, we need to organise it before it's too late.

Congratulations, you're stating the obvious. Instead of just saying things that sound pro-town, why don't you do something that'll make sure we don't have to scramble for a lynch at deadline (i.e. actively scumhunting, being more aggressive on a wider range of people, actually making a case on someone...)

Speaking of which, your case on RC is weak. Try harder, please. What do you think of Mindgamer? What do you think of Tracker?

Hey mate, I'm organising a lynch on RC, that's about as proactive as it gets! I acknowledge my 'case' on RC is weak (I personally don't think it's a case) - it's more a genuine inkling that his response to the Quagmire wagon is fabricated. I understand that chaps like you need neat dot point cases to consider someone scummy, and I will do that, just for you. Give me a moment please.

Mindgamer lacks motivation (fair enough), but the wagon on him I don't disagree with (I think I've said that).

Tracker is still 95% town according to me, but this is based on what he said about his role PM, which I'm apparently not allowed to repeat.

*twiddles thumbs*

~~

Ed, I haven't forgotten about your inquiries. I'm responding to it shortly.

[Hoopla]

I'm not sure how to summarize a concise case on RedCoyote, because he posts in big blobs and is very wordy. But here is some posts that tickled me incorrectly;

This is all a big smokescreen, and I won't really have any part in it any longer. It is a waste of our time, and it's distracting most of the townies from doing anything else. I don't know whether or not it's worth using the lynch on Quagmire if only the quell this principled uproar, but I don't think everyone on his wagon is there honestly. I implore those voting him to keep a closer eye on your wagon buddies as the day marches on.

Because it's a red herring. We're missing opportunities to get multiple wagons going. The strategy in question is causing smokescreen, and D1 is turning into a referendum on the strategy itself. You can discuss mafia politics in the Mafia Discussion forum, let's use this thread to discuss who in our town is scummy. I've proposed Flare as a D1 lynch on account of his spinelessness and flipfloping. Nacho thinks that we're letting The Tracker get away with too much. Are you interested in these cases at all, Hoopla?

Look at Red condemning it for all it's worth - the thing that makes me click, is the amount of huffing and puffing he does about how it's a smokescreen, but he then never contributes to any other major wagon. In fact his opinions on The Tracker are limited to a couple of little quotes - this the most substancial;

I like Nacho's 132, and I think he breaths a little life into what may or may not have been a dying Tracker wagon.

I think it's really weird (assuming The Tracker is town) for Red to take such a stance (or non stance). I can see merit in him chasing Flare in between his sandwich of Quagmire votes - but I was surprised how little interaction he with The Tracker considering his mantra for wanting competing wagons.

~~

Also, this frustrated me;

A Tracker flip does not bode well for our Miller claim.

Trying to scoop suspicion on me, when an FBI Agent was alive without an SK. I imagine Red to be more logical to not not see the comparisons between the two. But we've covered this.

[Hoopla]

What trance is that, mister?

Your tunnel, your blinders, your unhealthy obsession with me and the wagon you've constructed on my behalf. You're absolutely deadlocked here, to the point where you're no longer even speaking to me.

Are you angry at me?

Hey, how do you feel about Flare now, compared to Day 1?

[Hoopla]

Of course not. At least, I'm not mad at the real Hoopla. I think the Nice'n'Fun Hoopla has been shirking her duties as a supposed townie. I think there is a group of people who need more from you than, "RC lynch, yum yum!" It's great if I flip scum for you, but what if I flip town?

I'm dazzled by this statement about people wanting more from me. I've gotten that a lot recently, and I don't know why. I'm not making excuses for anything, but why are my duties higher than other players? My position on almost every player is known - I think I've contributed more than a lot of players here. I've been a little preoccupied with you, sure, but I don't want to let you slip away.

If you flip scum I look like a genius, and if you flip town, well I hope the town can see sincerity in my attacks.

[Hoopla]

You made the right decision.

[Hoopla]

First off I wanna say that this is an account with a lot of experience behind it; some of which was with some of the players in this game.

Me?

~~

Can someone please summarise the case on Mindgamer?

He was very defensive D1, and as D2 began he was out for a quick lynch of the player who had claimed FBI Agent the day before.

When he was criticized for the vote, he immediately unvoted, and then got very upset as the wagon on him grew.

I'm starting to believe the Mindgamer wagon will result in a scum lynch less and less now, for some reason. The way it unfolded seemed far too simple - it was the easy go-to wagon, when it shouldn't have been that easy. I'm okay with easy wagons when there is a bulky, incriminating case, but I don't see it.

[Hoopla]

I knew this would happen, the town is forced into another situation where too many people have to compromise, and we have to scramble. If I don't get any sign of interest from other players soon towards an RC lynch, I will swap to Mindgamer to prevent a no-lynch. But I urge everyone to consider RC as a possibility please!

[Hoopla]

Ugh this is really frustrating that no one seems open to an RC lynch. Hito and edfrost find it almost impossible that I could find him scummy, it's just surreal.

Hoopla/cruelty thoughts on edfrost?

Angelmouse was a lurker, and she used logic I didn't agree with toward the Quagmire wagon. Her most suspicious moment came late on D1, where she prompted a claim from The Tracker over Quagmire, despite them both being at L-3 (which I noted previously here). I think it was probably loopy town play though, as I'm not sure she was paying a lot of attention to the game.

Since EdFrost's introduction, he has done nothing to tickle me the wrong way. In fact he has seemed pro-town in his activity and scumhunting. Good on him.

~~

Hito, you'd seriously prefer no-lynch over an RC lynch?

[Hoopla]

Mindgamer, if I'm the

only

genuine voter, then what are your reasons for voting me? Obv, it's no based off of the wagon on you, so you'll have to explain quite well what your reasoning for finding me scummy is.

I like this point.

[Hoopla]

Why not be FrostEd? that sounds so much better.

[Hoopla]

Oh cool, what an interesting concept.

You should have at look at two of Adel's hydra games (run simultaneously) - here and here. Every player had to play in a hydra, but was in both games ran separately, with quick deadlines. It was fun.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, cruelty: thoughts on faraday?

I think his stances are inconsistant, but he is going for RedCoyote, so that is pro-town points for Faraday there. I don't think he is scummy enough to be in my top two or three though. To be honest, I don't understand the case against. Can someone summarize?

Dear Hoopla, Faraday, and AGar:

your next post either has a vote for cruelty or an explanation why {RC,Mindgamer} is a better lynch today. This would have to include cruelty's merits along with {RC,Mindgamer}'s scuminess.

love,
hito

Hello hito, I think cruelty's play is pro-town, I admit I have a nagging feeling about him (as he did of me), but it isn't substancial. I'm online up until deadline, so I will compromise if necessary, but I'd rather lynch Mindgamer over anyone else (if we can't have an RC lynch).

[Hoopla]

le sigh

Unvote, vote: Mindgamer

[Hoopla]

I'm here, but it doesn't matter...

We can hug if you want.

[Hoopla]

What chance do you give a Mindgamer scum flip, RedCoyote?

[Hoopla]

Welcome back to the game Nacho. Hmm, that extra long break has seemed to scatter my brain. Oh no, wait, I remember!

Vote: RedCoyote

[Hoopla]

You have to at least lynch

one

of the scum before you lose!

Does this read like a weird thing for the mod to say? I think he's hinting that we're in mylo. Although, it's not so much a hint, as I can't imagine a balanced set-up with only 2 scum considering what has already flipped.

The truth is, after 4 dead townies without hitting scum, we basically need to lynch correctly 3 times in a row. Town's don't often win these situations, so we need to maximise our chances in every way we possibly can to find scum

today

. So, I propose a massclaim - especially after the flip of a doc enabler. There is too much weirdness going on in this set-up.

I think it's time to be more sensible too. No silly bandwagons without adequate discussion.

Unvote

Sorry.

[Hoopla]

Popcorn? Nobody is cleared at this point. I think we're comfortable nom'ing Faraday or cruelty to go first.

I'd love RC to go first, but either of them are fine too.

We should wait for everyone else to check in before we start doing anything, though.

[Hoopla]

what's popcorn?

A variety of corn that when heated explodes from the kernel. It's popular with salt or icing sugar, so much so it's the cornerstone snack of the cinematic industry.

[Hoopla]

Hmmm.

[Hoopla]

Final Vote Count

Quagmire

(7)

Hoopla,

Cyberbob

, cruelty,

AGar

, Flareonage, RedCoyote, hitogoroshi

The Tracker (2)

Nachomamma8, angelmouse

Flareonage (1)

The Tracker

Cyberbob

(1)

Quagmire

angelmouse (1)

Mindgamer

Not Voting (0)

With twelve alive, it took seven to guillotine. Quagmire has 'achieved' a majority.

(flip colors added)

Hoopla and Cyberbob were both emotionally (or at least politically) interested in lynching Quagmire. These are reasonable disagreements, but not necessarily scummy ones. Me and hito were both "forced" on the wagon due to time contraints and (at least on my part) the unwillingness to lynch The Tracker.

AGar has since flipped town, but as I noted above, the person he replaced was not interested in lynching Quagmire. Seeing as how the Colonel played for the majority of Day 1, this is important to consider.

Who does that leave? cruelty and Faraday.

I mean, talk about a smoking gun. You're going to tell me the entire town lynched Quagmire? No, I don't buy it. I won't buy it. cruelty and Faraday have to say that's the case, they've both supported one another throughout Day 2 (unless one of them has a revelation now that I've made this post that is).

Even if it isn't both cruelty and Faraday, I will eat my hat if at least one of them isn't scum. And I'd bet you dollars to donuts that hito is a second scum (if cruelty and Faraday aren't scum together).

This is actually a very compelling piece of evidence. I don't like how you're giving yourself such an easy out along with hito, on the Quagmire wagon. But cruelty and Faraday are looking highly suspect. Knowing I'm town, I seriously doubt the first 5 votes on this lynch are town. As much as I hate to say it, cruelty or Faraday has to be today's lynch.

I want to look through possible scumteams, but the site is intermittently cutting out on me, so I'll leave this post with a point about role/set-up speculation;

Despite EdFrost being one of my stronger reads, I think out of all of the claims, his is most likely to be fake. I strongly believe the FBI claim, but having two SK related roles for a non-SK set-up seems a bit, well, too much. Doc-vig (one that can be disabled) and a tracker doesn't seem like enough power to balance out against a 3-player scumteam, when you have multiple roles in the town designed to confuse/mislead players. This makes me think there is a decent chance Ed's claim is fake - but I don't think he should be lynched over cruelty or Faraday, especially when Ed (angelmouse) wasn't on the Quagmire lynch either.

[Hoopla]

Is Snow_Bunny around?

Really? She's in this game?


I still have some reading to do but FYI im vanilla. If enough people i find town tell me where it is im to place my vote i will abide.

If you don't know where to place your vote (who is scummy), then how do you know who is town?

[Hoopla]

FYI im vanilla.

OH YEAHHHH

[Hoopla]

Is this a lynch all liars situation?

Yes, almost certainly. This is one of the most objetive pieces of evidence you'll ever find against someone in a game of mafia. The chances of some sort of pro-town explaination for this is so slim compared to the obvious answer of scum not realizing their predecessor had already fakeclaimed. But I'm curious to hear Snow's response.

It doesn't matter if we're back in the same boat tomorrow having to lynch correctly again - that's the only way we can win. Having a confirmed scum will improve our reads tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Nahhh. Okay i lied. I didnt misread btw, i intentionally lied. Im an FBI agent and wanted to try to keep it as much in the dark as possible having just replaced in. Because its not a role you would just out in 2days or less.

I can find a serial killer who may or may not be in the game. But if the SK is the only danger, docs dead, so i be dead tonight anyway.

I knew EdFrost claimed Arsonist and i thought that was kinda enough and didnt see the harm in lying apparently yall already knew so wtf gives? Anyway, not much help but Mindgamer was targeted N1.
TheTracker went missing N2.
And thus here i am.

Discuss.
-Nachoman is scummy.
-Cruelty/hito appears town.

I don't understand your motivation for lying. The point of massclaim is to say what your role is, so the town has every piece if information it can possibly have to make a collective decision. Obscuring information is silly, especially when there hasn't been a kill on both nights so far.

[Hoopla]

Ok, so Hoopla, Faraday, cruelty: Do you really think that RC would lay that kind of trap as a scumbuddy? Will you finally move on with your tunneling (specifically cruelty)?

No, I probably don't - there is no point when all they need is one mislynch to win. When Snow flips scum, I'll reevaluate my reads tomorrow.

But I definitely think the two (presumably) other scum are between cruelty/Faraday/hito. Tracker wasn't on the Quagmire lynch, and there is no way it wasn't pushed by scum at some point.

Is there anything else that needs to be discussed today?

[Hoopla]

Vote: Snow White

Also, just posting some random pictures to fit in.

[Hoopla]

Are you town Snow? I hammered you. Sorry to cut our playing together experience short.

[Hoopla]

No Hoopla. I should not have lied. I deserved to be hammered and i am sorry to all for acting so foolishly.

I was indeed a town FBI agent.

Did I do it right, hito?

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]

I knew that there wasn't an SK or Arsonist in the game... Hoopla, did you craft your miller claim on the fact that Vi helped review the setup?

It was actually a lot deeper than some people would have expected. The Vi thing was a small factor, but my main reason for doing it, was that I knew I could get away with it on D1. It was essentially a free pass for me.

I breadcrumbed on D1 that my miller claim was fake, and that I was actually a cop, trying this gambit to get a guarenteed investigation through to Day 2. I was going to justify this by how often I've been getting targeted at night recently, and saw this as a viable play. Then, that night I was hammering out potential paths I could take this gmabit - the most elaborate was breadcrumbing an innocent result on angelmouse at the start of D2, then claiming a guilty on one of my scumbuddies to 'gauge their reaction'. As soon as they looked town from that, I was going to unclaim, and show my breadcrumb of my 'true' result on angelmouse, then try and pass it off as a town gambit.

This went into the background when Cyberbob flipped tracker - it made cop a very risky fakeclaim, and coincidentally made my miller claim look a lot more solid. To me, I thought it was a better option to try and sell the 'gimmick setup' over an elaborate nonsensical gambit. I was really happy when Ed brought up the Vi-meta showing a miller without a cop set-up. I think if I brought it up, it would have made me look like I was being manipulative. I think there was a lot of pieces of luck that fell my way this game, which is a large reason why it was successful.

Also, sorry for tunnelling so much on your Red, and making your life difficult, but I thought it was necessary!

[Hoopla]

I also think the town probably needed one more decent powerrole to counteract the potential wild goose chase that could have resulted from a non-existant SK. There was too much deliberately confusing/distracting roles that probably had a net anti-town effect. Because the two town powerroles died so early, it really made it an uphill battle to win this game for the town.