Newbie 927 - FrEeky Town - Game Over

[My Milked Eek]

>> Official Votecount 4.02

Not Voting: [ Sotty7, Nikanor, MagnaofIllusion ]

With 3 alive, it takes 2 votes to lynch.

Prodding Nikanor.

Deadline

: June 3rd, Noon GMT

[Sotty7]

Okay I was coming to ask for a Nik prod. I am feeling quite alone in the is game at the moment.

[My Milked Eek]

No worries, your mod is always there for you.

[Sotty7]

<3

[Nikanor]

Hello, hello!
Sorry, I'm just waiting on the motivation to do that re-read. It just never seems to be there.
I'll try to get it done tomorrow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, back from a weekends of laying tile and painting …

First I’ll address Sotty’s accusastions before delving into whether Sotty or Nik is the last Mafian.

First off, he gets the vote count wrong in here. He says Sin is at lynch -1 when really it is lynch-2. I find this strange because there is a vote count literally three posts above this post. He does later vote Sin after his mistake is pointed out. But I do find this to be some what of an extension to the tell of not voting during the day that sarali was guilty of. He uses the excuse of Sin being at lynch -1 as a reason for why he can't vote. It's a big stretch to say that no one else is scummy enough to warrant a vote at this point, why not u se your vote as a tool to push people into playing? He has been questioning people but the reluctance of putting his vote where his mouth is feels very off to me. He literally feels like he has to vote Sin once his mistake has been pointed out, because it would have looked even worse for him if he didn't.

Let’s correct a salient points about this analysis – You accuse me of missing the vote count right above me. You fail to mention, however, I was directly responding to your post (124) on the previous page which took place before the vote count in question.

I didn’t vote for Sinspawn because, as I typed, I believed he was at L-1 when I posted my response and don’t like to end Day 1 so early (page 5). When it was brought to my attention that he wasn’t at L-1 I voted. All the conjecture in the paragraph above is wonderful but is simply based on your “gut” feeling. And what line do you draw on your ‘extension’ of the tell. What amount or frequency of voting would be sufficient for it to stop being linked to this ‘tell’? I note, for future reference, the use of feel, as bolded, in this post.

In post 18 MoI votes for Zodiark for being the last to confirm. This is basically is his RVS vote. Later we then get this vote for Z-P surrounding his use of a dice. This is a vote I actually agreed with at the time because I also hate the use of dice in RVS. But it clearly isn't an RVS so my the attempt to distance away from it in post 122? I don't understand.

Voting at post 42 for Z-P for use of Dice was a pressure vote to see his reaction pure and simple. By post 122 there had been plenty of issues discussed. You yourself say I was actively questioning others. Keeping a vote on Z-P simply for his use of dice in RVS wasn’t warranted at that point IMO, RVS or not.

Once we get to day two MoI chooses to vote for a lurker of all things in this post. There is a lot going on in this post, he questions Alex and myself in particular but instead decides to slap a vote on the nik/zazzie/evil slot. It just feels like such a cop out to pick a player that can't defend themselves to vote. There is some build to this over the end of day one, but it all

feels

weak. His heavy attacks on Alex here also look like a chainsaw now we know of confirmed saraliScum.

First you are ignoring that I had listed Evilsnail / Zaz / Nik as one of my top two candidates in Post 283. You are trying to portray this as if I just suddenly voted for Nik’s slot without any consideration at all, which is a complete mis-rep. The fact that Nik’s slot never responded to any of my questions during Day 2 only strengthened my thoughts that it was / is a scum slot.

Second questioning Apayah / Alex or yourself about the abrupt shift, as I did all of Day 2, doesn’t oblige me to have to vote for them.

And again, I see that you are going by “feel”.

The next few posts show MoI argue a Alex/Zazzier link only to seemingly abandon that by ranking Alex 3rd in his lynch list by post 375. A distant 3rd even. I don't see any real progress of thought that makes him lower Alex so much so quickly other than he is “active” that's not a good reason. I am starting to think it is because no one else appeared too willing to lynch that slot.

Looking for links between slots isn’t the only indication of who I found scummy. And your second link shows my inherent belief that lurking and active lurking is a scum-tell. So questioning why I listed Alex third on my list (mainly for the perceived link to my top suspect (Nik / Zaz / evil) and his sudden shift to Salari, which was poor play as the cop) as opposed to Nik’s slot and Ani (both for lurking / total lack of scum-hunting, btw) is at best a smear tactic.

Also, please point me anwhere where I pushed for an Apayah / Alex lynch. You can’t. Questioning motives isn’t pushing a lynch.

Then there was the whole reaction yesterday that twigged my gut. Where he questions my vote on Chaos while spending the rest of the post agreeing with my conculsion. Almost as if he knew what Chaos would flip but was trying to see if the town would lynch else where so he could win the game right out.

Questioning you about the casual way you dropped a vote in LYLO is scummy? Furthermore point me where I suggested we vote anywhere other than Chaos. Again, you can’t. And note that I agreed with your conclusion by voting only after I decided to look closely to see if the Cop breadcrumb was supported by the slot’s Day 2 play. You point about knowing the flip actually weakens this point, as only someone who knew Chaos was Mafia would accept without analysis that the Alex had a guilty read on Chaos.

In summary your analysis here is mostly based on either not liking my playstyle or ‘gut / feeling’ with significant heaps of conjecture.

I’ll address some questions to the both of you in my next post.

[Sotty7]

Let’s correct a salient points about this analysis – You accuse me of missing the vote count right above me. You fail to mention, however, I was directly responding to your post (124) on the previous page which took place before the vote count in question.

If this is true and you knew the vote count at the time of responding to me, why didn't you place your vote then? Why did it take greendirt pointing it out for you to vote?

When it was brought to my attention that he wasn’t at L-1 I voted. All the conjecture in the paragraph above is wonderful but is simply based on your “gut” feeling. And what line do you draw on your ‘extension’ of the tell. What amount or frequency of voting would be sufficient for it to stop being linked to this ‘tell’? I note, for future reference, the use of feel, as bolded, in this post. 

The bulk of mafia is all about gut feelings and being able to translate them into reasons. It's about looking at posts and trying to figure out why someone said what they said and the motivations behind it. Now if I had said I had a simple gut feeling about you that would be one thing. I didn't, carely taking the time to explain why I found this whole deal scummy on my re-read. Trying to dismiss it all as “gut” is baseless on your end.

The tell of weak/non voting has been proven again by the Chaos flip and yet you still seem to be trying to say it doesn't exist. I can't honestly tell you the cut off point for it, it all depends on the players and circumstances. I am of the opinion your voting patten on day one is pretty off, when you combine that with how you defended Chaos/sarali though the game I think it speaks for itself.

Voting at post 42 for Z-P for use of Dice was a pressure vote to see his reaction pure and simple. By post 122 there had been plenty of issues discussed. You yourself say I was actively questioning others. Keeping a vote on Z-P simply for his use of dice in RVS wasn’t warranted at that point IMO, RVS or not.

Okay, so why claim when you unvoted that you were unvoting a RVS vote when even in your own words you were not?

First you are ignoring that I had listed Evilsnail / Zaz / Nik as one of my top two candidates in Post 283. You are trying to portray this as if I just suddenly voted for Nik’s slot without any consideration at all, which is a complete mis-rep. The fact that Nik’s slot never responded to any of my questions during Day 2 only strengthened my thoughts that it was / is a scum slot.

I'm not ignoring it. My issue is that you stick with a lurker when you had strong points against others in that post. It's was a fall back vote because you barely mention your case against that slot instead choosing to push elsewhere. Your actions and vote don't add up here even more so when evils only post between 283 and 322 was a v/la post and that slot was replaced in that time. Why not ask more questions of that slot and vote Alex who you seemed to think was the buddy? What made you want to vote from 283 to 322 when nothing had changed apart from replacement?

Basically I don't understand what made you suddenly want to vote when before you were uneasy to.

Also, what is your issue with the word feel? You seem to be suggesting it is scummy, but when I am trying to figure out your motivations my feel of your attitude is what I have.

Looking for links between slots isn’t the only indication of who I found scummy. And your second link shows my inherent belief that lurking and active lurking is a scum-tell. So questioning why I listed Alex third on my list (mainly for the perceived link to my top suspect (Nik / Zaz / evil) and his sudden shift to Salari, which was poor play as the cop) as opposed to Nik’s slot and Ani (both for lurking / total lack of scum-hunting, btw) is at best a smear tactic.

Active lurking is scummy, but Alex didn't replace an active lurker. He replaced Apayha who was pretty active up until she flaked out. Evil didn't active lurk when he was around, zazzie never posted and so was just out right lurking. So your “active lurking is scummy” thing does not explain how others moved up your list and Alex moved down. Unless you find Zazzie's non posting as scummy (which is a cop out btw).

I have noted your somewhat aggressive over tones to my case on you, using words like smear tactic despite what I say being the truth is a very passive aggressive way of making me look bad. Rather than quote and show or fully explaining your thought process you are trying to subtly attack me and my case in hopes that something will stick. I really can't wait for your “questions” (I have no idea why it is taking so long) but I think you are laying the ground work for an all out assault on me if the wind happens to blow that way.

Also, please point me anwhere where I pushed for an Apayah / Alex lynch. You can’t. Questioning motives isn’t pushing a lynch.

Did I say you were pushing for an Alex lynch? I said that I thought you gave up on that slot because it became clear no one wanted to lynch it. There is no clear process of your opinions changing between you and Alex, you just move him down and place lurkers above him.

Questioning you about the casual way you dropped a vote in LYLO is scummy? Furthermore point me where I suggested we vote anywhere other than Chaos. Again, you can’t. And note that I agreed with your conclusion by voting only after I decided to look closely to see if the Cop breadcrumb was supported by the slot’s Day 2 play. You point about knowing the flip actually weakens this point, as only someone who knew Chaos was Mafia would accept without analysis that the Alex had a guilty read on Chaos. 

There was nothing casual about my Chaos vote. I was trying to lynch him the day before but no one else outside of Alex was interested. As soon as Alex flipped cop I knew that he had a guilty on Chaos, it was obvious. I guess my experience speaks here. I think it is more likely that scum would try and cover up a possible cop investigation in the hopes that the town might throw out a crazy vote and they could win the game out right. Your questioning of my vote makes no sense in the context of your post.

In summary your analysis here is mostly based on either not liking my playstyle or ‘gut / feeling’ with significant heaps of conjecture. 

Welcome to mafia. This post doesn't sway me from my belief that you are the final scum. You spent more time trying to discredit me rather than answering my points or explaining what really happened. For the record I have zero issue with your playstyle, it's actually pretty good. I just happen to believe you are scum because of your voting record and your subtle defense of scumChaos.

Nikanor? Where are you?

[Nikanor]

Hey Sotty, I think that MagnaofIllusion is the last scum, too!
I did some research into your isos checking to see the order in which you've mentioned each player slot. I find this telling because most scum will try to ignore their buddies for as long as possible. Here's what I found:

1 ani/Zod
2 evil/Zaz/Nik
3 Groningen/Zombeh
4 Sotty
5 Sin
6 Alex/Apayah
7 green
8 Chaos/serali

1 green
2 Groningen/Zombeh
3 Chaos/serali
4 evil/Zaz/Nik
5 Alex/Apayah
6 Magna
7 Sin
8 ani/Zod

As you can see, MoI mentions serali/Mr. Chaos last out of all the players, and only mentions that slot a couple times, but never to attack it:

I’d like to see Sarali’s comments regarding everything that has occurred since her V/LA notice before we even consider an end of the day.

@ Apayah – I notice that your only vote of Day 1 was for Sinspawn, which you placed in RVS? Should Sarali be held to a higher standard than you given you maintained your RVS vote (albeit on a very scummy candidate) the entire Day and only voted once yourself?

Reading you in ISO I see barely a mention of Sarali Day 1 other than wanting to see input. And why do you have faith in the strength of your gut read now when you didn’t Day 1 with Sinspawn? When pressed on it you said you “really didn’t think” Sin was town. When pressured now will you really decide that Sarali isn’t scum?

etc. etc. etc. until the hammer vote on Mr. Chaos.

You spent more time trying to discredit me rather than answering my points or explaining what really happened.

Quoted for reality.
I'd like to see what MoI has to say when he goes on the offensive, though.

[Nikanor]

And yes I know that's not a very good post for the... two weeks? it took for me to write it. It's a bigger than normal post for me though, dammit.

[Sotty7]

Just a heads up guys. My Grandma died today on my birthday so I don't know how present I'm gonna be for the next few days mafia wise. I probably won't check in for reals until tomorrow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Sorry to hear that .. make the best of it!

There's plenty of time to sort this game out after you get things taken care of.

[Nikanor]

Sotty: Happy birthday? Sorry to hear about your grandmother.

Magna, L'homme des Illusions: Why don't I have questions to address yet?

[My Milked Eek]

>> Official Votecount 4.03

Not Voting: [ Sotty7, Nikanor, MagnaofIllusion ]

With 3 alive, it takes 2 votes to lynch.

Deadline

: June 3rd, Noon GMT

Sotty, I'm sorry to hear about your grandmother as well. Take care of yourself first and don't worry about this game too much, play it when you can/feel like it.

[Sotty7]

Okay so, MoI seems to be MIA for some reason. I really want to know why he is posting in his other games and yet obviously ignoring this one.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I've got alot on my plate here and in real life so this game is perhaps not getting the attention it deserves. Given the rope you were inclined to give Nik I'm not going to rush my thoughts together given I appear to be likely the lynch if I don't present a convincing case.

Note I'm not going to lay out the typical "Don't vote for me you'll lose" emotional appeal usually seen here.

Hopefully I'll have time to pull together some thoughts later tonight.

[Nikanor]

I hope so MoI!
Oh wait, that post of yours was made yesterday.

[Sotty7]

Okay so, MoI has been posting in 6 other games over this one. Yeah he hasn't been posting on the weekends, but during the week he has. My patience is starting to run out as I have no idea why a townie would wait so long to post actual content. I smell a caught scum.

[Nikanor]

Hey,

I

waited pretty long to post content.
That said, I'm willing to give him until the end of today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First a few responses to Sotty’s questions –

If this is true and you knew the vote count at the time of responding to me, why didn't you place your vote then? Why did it take greendirt pointing it out for you to vote?

Once again you’re assuming facts to make this argument. I obviously thought that Sinspawn was at L-1 when I posted my statement. When greendirt pointed out that he wasn’t I voted. Pretty simple set of facts.

I am of the opinion your voting patten on day one is pretty off, when you combine that with how you defended Chaos/sarali though the game I think it speaks for itself.

My voting pattern was pretty off because I didn’t want to hammer (mistakenly) and then when the correct facts were brought to my attention I voted for my top candidate? And that I voted in RVS, then voted for pressure a stupid dice mechanic? And that I unvoted and incorrectly stated I was unvoting an RVS vote? If that’s your case I don’t think there is much I can explain.

I'm not ignoring it. My issue is that you stick with a lurker when you had strong points against others in that post. It's was a fall back vote because you barely mention your case against that slot instead choosing to push elsewhere. Your actions and vote don't add up here even more so when evils only post between 283 and 322 was a v/la post and that slot was replaced in that time.

Questioning others is something I feel free to do when my top candidate is MIA and isn’t answering the questions I had put forward. I’m not going to just ignore the player I thought was most likely scum just because he goes inactive. I voted to place pressure on the slot in hopes that activity by evil / replacement would follow. I don’t subscribe to the theory that I have to vote for others simply because my scum candidate isn’t popular. You may (and apparently) disagree.

Active lurking is scummy, but Alex didn't replace an active lurker. He replaced Apayha who was pretty active up until she flaked out. Evil didn't active lurk when he was around, zazzie never posted and so was just out right lurking. So your “active lurking is scummy” thing does not explain how others moved up your list and Alex moved down. Unless you find Zazzie's non posting as scummy (which is a cop out btw).

Umm let’s review.

1. I find lurking / active lurking scummy.
2. I placed evil and ani, who I believe were guilty of those behaviors higher on the list than Apayah / alex

How is that not logical? I never said Alex / Apayah lurked / active lurked. And a player replacing in and not posting for a slot I find suspicious is scummy in my eyes. You can, once again, disagree.

I really can't wait for your “questions” (I have no idea why it is taking so long) but I think you are laying the ground work for an all out assault on me if the wind happens to blow that way.

Am I not allowed to suspect you and attack you if I think you are scum?

I think it is more likely that scum would try and cover up a possible cop investigation in the hopes that the town might throw out a crazy vote and they could win the game out right. Your questioning of my vote makes no sense in the context of your post.

Really? Sounds like WIFOM to me. I think it’s just as likely scum would aggressively bus their partner in that situation.

Welcome to mafia.

Thanks, I’m just so lost and overwhelmed. Yes, that is of course sarcasm.

My response to Nik at 457 –

I guess this is better than no post at all. Otherwise you’ve just quickly looked at the order people mention / question others and included a few quotations directly solely at me. I expected something more from you given the build-up.

Questions and comments–

For Sotty –

You’ve played the game I expected out of an IC. You’ve been active and contributed in a consistent and generally (in appearance, at least) helpful manner all game.

1. In ISO 27 you stated the following “For example I am waiting on the evilsnail/Zazzie spot to do something, anything. Evil's lurking was pretty bad yesterday and so I have no real idea where that slot stands.” So at that point in Day 2 you are stating that the slot has done nothing to give you a solid read. What is you opinion on Nik’s contributions to the game from his replace in point?

2. You are an experienced player and have been under little scrutiny or pressure during the game. In light of this please explain the motivation for scum to eliminate FC last night and leave you, the IC and generally most Pro-town perceived player alive.

3. Which is more likely, in your opinion, in a Newb game environment with only 2 scum – defending a scum-buddy or bussing a scum-buddy?

For Nik –

1. What are your thoughts on the Night 1 and Night 3 kills?

2. Given your knowledge of Sotty’s playstyle do you feel she would actively bus a partner at the first sign of pressure on here partner?

[Sotty7]

Once again you’re assuming facts to make this argument. I obviously thought that Sinspawn was at L-1 when I posted my statement. When greendirt pointed out that he wasn’t I voted. Pretty simple set of facts.

This still doesn't explain how you missed the vote count. I get you were responding to me or whatever, but the count is right there unless you don't read all the post before you post. Anyway, circular argument is circular, I'm putting a pin in this and moving on.

My voting pattern was pretty off because I didn’t want to hammer (mistakenly) and then when the correct facts were brought to my attention I voted for my top candidate? And that I voted in RVS, then voted for pressure a stupid dice mechanic? And that I unvoted and incorrectly stated I was unvoting an RVS vote? If that’s your case I don’t think there is much I can explain.

Well at least an attempt to say that you were wrong and made a mistake would have been nice. Instead you try to wordily scoot around the whole RVS vote deal and when I don't buy it you resort to a bunch of rhetorical questions that don't really help anyone. Nice.

Questioning others is something I feel free to do when my top candidate is MIA and isn’t answering the questions I had put forward. I’m not going to just ignore the player I thought was most likely scum just because he goes inactive. I voted to place pressure on the slot in hopes that activity by evil / replacement would follow. I don’t subscribe to the theory that I have to vote for others simply because my scum candidate isn’t popular. You may (and apparently) disagree.

I think unless you have a good reason your vote should be active at all times. You didn't have a good reason considering your suspect list and how you were pressuring at this point.

Umm let’s review. 

1. I find lurking / active lurking scummy. 
2. I placed evil and ani, who I believe were guilty of those behaviors higher on the list than Apayah / alex 

How is that not logical? I never said Alex / Apayah lurked / active lurked. And a player replacing in and not posting for a slot I find suspicious is scummy in my eyes. You can, once again, disagree.

Well to begin with Apayah/Alex was higher on your list than Ani. you actually seemed to be arguing for a alex/evil scum team but you dropped that and instead decided to run with the two lurkers as your one and two. I am saying I see no logical reason for you to drop your scum team buddying thoughts here.

My issue is how you seem to simply suspect people on activity alone and how I feel that is a big cop out. Scum going after people who can't defend themselves (lurkers) is bad.

Am I not allowed to suspect you and attack you if I think you are scum?

You think I am scum? This is news to me, because other than your backhanded attempts at dirtying me you have made no real solid stance on this until now. In fact all game you seemed to have thought I was town right up until I built a case on you. By all means build a case if you think I am scum, the lack of any substantial from you about myself or Nikanor is very telling considering how you played the rest of this game.

1. In ISO 27 you stated the following “For example I am waiting on the evilsnail/Zazzie spot to do something, anything. Evil's lurking was pretty bad yesterday and so I have no real idea where that slot stands.” So at that point in Day 2 you are stating that the slot has done nothing to give you a solid read. What is you opinion on Nik’s contributions to the game from his replace in point?

It is simply because of Nik's lack of content today that I haven't taken the plunge and voted for you yet. I have a nagging thought in the back of my mind that he is just waiting and agreeing with me for now until I vote. But that's lylo paranoia for you. I think Nik started off pretty well when he replaced in, playing in the fashion I have come to expect. Lately not so good. Would like to see more before I am fully comfortable in voting.

2. You are an experienced player and have been under little scrutiny or pressure during the game. In light of this please explain the motivation for scum to eliminate FC last night and leave you, the IC and generally most Pro-town perceived player alive.

So you could make this argument. Also I was leaning town on you before this day so I could have easily been on the wrong track. There are a number of reasons why I could have been kept alive but they are all WIFOM.

3. Which is more likely, in your opinion, in a Newb game environment with only 2 scum – defending a scum-buddy or bussing a scum-buddy? 

Both are equally as likely. I really don't understand how you could argue any different with a straight face.

[My Milked Eek]

>> Official Votecount 4.04

Not Voting: [ Sotty7, Nikanor, MagnaofIllusion ]

With 3 alive, it takes 2 votes to lynch.

Deadline

: June 3rd, Noon GMT

[Nikanor]

1. What are your thoughts on the Night 1 and Night 3 kills?

I thought that green was pretty obvtown and that that is probably why he died, but I have no idea why that other guy was killed.

2. Given your knowledge of Sotty’s playstyle do you feel she would actively bus a partner at the first sign of pressure on here partner?

I don't really have that much experience with Sotty, sorry. And I'm really not getting what you're trying to say, either. As far as I know, Sotty was the first vote on her partner.

It is simply because of Nik's lack of content today that I haven't taken the plunge and voted for you yet.

Sorrrry. I've been busy with being in too many games and it being summer and whatnot.

[Sotty7]

Just a heads up, tomorrow afternoon is my Grandmother's wake and then Friday is her funeral. So I will be V/LA over that time and depending on how things go I might not be around much over the weekend either.

[Sotty7]

This game is really starting to make me sad.

[Nikanor]

Yep. I guess I can

Vote: MagnaofIllusion

to move the game forward a bit.