Mini 971: Princess bride - They all lived .......

[Jack]

Final Day 1 Vote Count:

vote count:

bv310 (1) wolframnhart
Parama (2), Steam Powered Shovel, ekiM
SensFan (7) bv310, curiouskarmadog, animorpherv1, Jack, Parama, Kmd439, SensFan
Shovel (1) MacavityLock

Not voting:

Debonair Danny DiPietro

Deadline is May 26th, 2:10pm PST
With 12 alive it will take 7 to lynch

That is a lynch. Story will be up in a few moments.

Does the Sens lynch happen without scum on it? Neither DDD nor wnh (CMAR) were on that lynch. So unless that's a pure townie lynch,

of the SK

, we're looking at

bv

horror, Jack, or Parama.

One of my first games here an obvious townie was strung up D1, including quickhammer. I was off the wagon and vigged the quickhammerer. He was town. All the scum were off the wagon (I'm 90% sure on that).

Remember that the sens wagon was a fast d1 wagon that ended when he hammered himself not by any natural conclusion. DDD also revealed himself as scum by dancing on the edge of it and wolf is a lurker. All in all this is a terrible argument.

[MacavityLock]

Remember that the sens wagon was a fast d1 wagon that ended when he hammered himself not by any natural conclusion. DDD also revealed himself as scum by dancing on the edge of it and wolf is a lurker. All in all this is a terrible argument.

A fast D1 wagon makes it all the more likely that there was scum on it.

[Jack]

Remember that the sens wagon was a fast d1 wagon that ended when he hammered himself not by any natural conclusion. DDD also revealed himself as scum by dancing on the edge of it and wolf is a lurker. All in all this is a terrible argument.

A fast D1 wagon makes it all the more likely that there was scum on it.

No not really, as the example I gave shows.

Also, that argument fails at probability. When we already know that 2 scum weren't on the wagon, it becomes way more likely that the third wasn't. And DDD's posts show that scum were wary of the wagon.

[MacavityLock]

Also, that argument fails at probability. When we already know that 2 scum weren't on the wagon, it becomes way more likely that the third wasn't. And DDD's posts show that scum were wary of the wagon.

BS alert. Scum don't act as a group, especially on Day 1. Why wouldn't scum want to go for the mislynch (from their perspective)?

Time to put my money where my mouth is. VOTE: Jack

[Jack]

Ok, here's some further explanation on a point that Mac's been ignoring.

Actually, I did mention DDD. I voted for him in my first vote of the day, very obviously following Jack. I figured based on Jack's early vote that Jack actually did have role-related info on DDD, I followed him early, and when he claimed the info, I clearly believed him. Read my isos 9 and 17 please.

Interestingly, I had this scenario happen to me in a different game.

I believed that SpyreX had role related info on Anon. This was my townie reaction:

I remember now. I saw something yesterday that made me think Anon was scum. Don't know what it was though.

unvote, vote:Anon

Comment--fabrication, Anon was not on my radar at all.

If SPS was scum (what's the flavor thing about him not being an elf = shouldn't go to Mandos?) then Anon is a likely scumbuddy. He he kind of flits around the wagon. The only person he's really pushed is FFFF. Read his ISO.

I went back and reread to find some dirt on Anon.

I'm voting Anon. Maybe you should too.

Pushed wagon on Anon.

Anon's scumbuddies don't want him to be lynched.

etc.

Can you summarize why you don't know what the case on Anon is for me?

I say full speed ahead on the Anon wagon.

He was kind of a lurker so I couldn't get much in the way of a case going.

I thought we were attempting to destroy Elscouta.

It's kind of like you think saying you haven't been reading this day carefully will make people think you're town.

oh look Anon stretched to find a reason to vote me without trying to look like he is saving self ...lame (not the act of saving self, but the bullshit reason you are doing it).

Yeah, that case was fake.

Now, it turned out SpyreX had only Jailkept Anon and wasn't sure he was scum. He backed off the wagon of his own accord. Anon was scum though. My townie instinct was to automatically try and push the Anon wagon so that the power role wouldn't have to claim and the scum would be lynched. Contrast with Mac's reaction. He mentions ISO's 9-17.

In 9 he calls out some people for lurking

The following people need to post content like now: bv, wolf, DDD.

...
Jack, you're playing a most dangerous game. Vote: DDD

And calls attention to the fact that I posted what he thought meant I had role related information. Which if he actually thought, he shouldn't have mentioned my name at all...

10-12 are about stuff other than DDD.

13 and 14 are about his V/LA.

In 15 he switches to Parama.

In 16 he switches to SPS.

And 17 is the post after I said that bit about role related information.

This is especially nice:

Post 231:

3 more votes on DDD.

Post 232:

The recent ekiM-Parama debate convinces me to

Unvote. Vote: Parama.

[Jack]

Also, that argument fails at probability. When we already know that 2 scum weren't on the wagon, it becomes way more likely that the third wasn't. And DDD's posts show that scum were wary of the wagon.

BS alert. Scum don't act as a group, especially on Day 1. Why wouldn't scum want to go for the mislynch (from their perspective)?

Time to put my money where my mouth is. VOTE: Jack

Here was the vote count:

SensFan (5) bv310, curiouskarmadog, animorpherv1, Jack, SensFan

It went up very quick, some of these are random votes. Now, is scum going to want to be 6th and 7th on a lynch with a self voter and no backing to it? No. In fact, you said:

Towniest self-vote I ever saw.

So you clearly had a reason to avoid the wagon. And we already know that DDD and wolf did.

DDD was cautious of the wagon too:

Two more votes is lynch, so you'll tell us the reasons for lynching Sens after we've already lynched him. Yeah, that's probably not going to work for me so much.

And this is the post I voted him for and pushed him all the next day.

Scum like a quick mislynch, but they sure as hell don't want to be on the tail end of it, that's mafia 101. Lynch was on page 5 btw.

[farside22]

Hey look it's a vote count:

MacavityLock (1) Jack

Not voting:
everyone else

With 6 alive it will take 4 to lynch
Deadline is July 16th, 7:00am PST

Fyi I will be leaving for the weekend July 16 and will not be back till Monday July 19th.

[Jack]

OK, given that Kmd was poisoned, the remaining killer is almost certainly either Vizzini or Westley, probably Vizzini. (Vizzini uses poisons, Westley built up an immunity to them, so would probably have access to them.) Note that all other night kills have been just plain "killed". I'm wondering whether "poisoning" is a special role, and I've had this suspicion since Day 2. Let me present the following. (Yay, we have post numbers back!)

Dear Town,

After we lynch ekiM, and the scum kill me tonight, I have a final request. My wish is that you guys lynch Steam-Powered Shovel tomorrow.

Don't mourn the loss of me as I've grown ill and would be likely to pass soon anyway. Due to this illness, I've become very aware of the strong value of human life, including lives of those who have made bad choices.

However, I must make an exception in Steam's case. The reason for this is that Steam, along with his partner in crime, ekiM, is guilty of conspiracy for murder and a takeover of our wonderful town. I believe in justice and will gladly give my own life for what is right. Do not let these murderer scumbags get away with this wrong doing. Be strong and do what is right after my death. I will be here for the remainder of the day to see to it that ekiM sees the gallows by nightfall.

Yours Truly,

Kmd.

So there's that. First question: Has anyone been told that they have been poisoned?

Secondly, if Poisoner is a role, the last remaining role, wouldn't that conflict with the roleblocking that SPS has been claiming?

Back to Mac's "Poisoner" case. A poisoner targets someone at night, and they die the next night. If kmd was poisoned night 1, he would have died n2. And why would the target be informed that they had been poisoned? Makes no sense. So this argument just seems designed to lynch SPS. And if the scum poisoner was an extra role like a roleblock then the scum would have two kills.

Given even numbers, at some point we should be doing No Lynch, but I don't know if that's today or tomorrow.

This fits in with the general theme I see today. Mac bussed cmar to set himself up as obvtown. That's what he was thinking, and when he comes in today he is ready to be town leader. He organizes the mass claim, and says stuff like this. But this is obviously STUPID. He hasn't really thought about it at all. We have HIDER role (who Mac is supposed to have been thinking about a lot with various theories). It's very possible that we have 2 deaths the night we do a no lynch.

Additionally, his "consideration of the mass claim results" has very little at all to do with the case he posts here. So the pro town leader stuff was just for show.

[MacavityLock]

Here was the vote count:

SensFan (5) bv310, curiouskarmadog, animorpherv1, Jack, SensFan

It went up very quick, some of these are random votes. Now, is scum going to want to be 6th and 7th on a lynch with a self voter and no backing to it? No. In fact, you said:

Towniest self-vote I ever saw.

So you clearly had a reason to avoid the wagon. And we already know that DDD and wolf did.

There was probably scum that jumped on the wagon early, which is likely why DDD and wnh avoided it. That's my point. It makes bv/horror and you look worse, Parama better.

Back to Mac's "Poisoner" case. A poisoner targets someone at night, and they die the next night. If kmd was poisoned night 1, he would have died n2. And why would the target be informed that they had been poisoned? Makes no sense. So this argument just seems designed to lynch SPS. And if the scum poisoner was an extra role like a roleblock then the scum would have two kills.

When Kmd made that post Day 2, my thoughts went to poisoner. When he didn't die Night 2, I moved on. Seeing it now brought the thought back up again. Who says that a Poisoner must kill the following night? It's likely, but is it 100%?

It's very possible that we have 2 deaths the night we do a no lynch.

Uh, what? How would this be possible?

Consideration of mass-claim results gave me the following: ekiM claimed Grandson. Looking back, he specifically had no issue with the Grandfather name-claim. This is a thumbs-up for ekiM. Other than that, there was no real new info, so I went back on the other track I was considering, having to do with the poison.

You've entirely avoided explaining why you lied, and then lied about lying.

[Jack]

Doing a review of yesterday.

Parama and ekiM and to a lesser extent SPS are the targets. ekiM is the only one who suspects cmar.

Mac's comment is:

My current read is that CMAR needs to go.

Then he has several questions for parama and horror.

His cmar vote:

Parama doesn't read as DDD's scumbuddy to me. CMAR definitely does. VOTE: CMAR. This is mostly based on a close skim, so deeper digging is required, but I want to plant a flag in a CMAR wagon for now.

At this point the day is up in the air. Staking out a claim on your buddies wagon is actually a very good move. And coincidentally that is exactly what Mac says ("plant a flag for now").

ekiM is pushing cmar, and I am saying that cmar is next most likely scum.

Horror puts Par at L-1 for shaky reasoning.

I think if you look at this day, after the parama lynch cmar is the next lynch. He hasn't claimed, and the other people are Jack, ekiM (both anti-cmar) the claimed cop and the claimed hider (who will look a lot better when Par flips town). So it is ideal play for Mac to push the cmar lynch. I actually think his reasoning here is very shoddy:

People, the following post does not come from scum buddied with DDD.

WHOOPS DEADLINE PASSED AND I'M NOT CHANGING MY VOTE ANYWAYS. NOT THAT I NEED TO. I BET WE JUST LYNCHED THE MOST POWERFUL TOWN ROLE ON ACCIDENT OR SOMETHING. OR WE LYNCHED SCUM AND MY ML/EKIM THEORY IS WRONG. IF DDD FLIPS SCUM EKIM IS STILL SCUM THOUGH.

Okay, done with the caps for now.

The following is the

only

mention of DDD in WNH and CMAR combined play.

Page 4

...
DDD and Jack argument-I think Jack is just trying to be funny, but DDD has a good point +little town points

We lynch CMAR today.

It is not a good argument for Par's innocence and not a good argument for cmar's guilt. For Mac, it is ideal if Par is lynched while he is urging for cmar.

cmar's reaction to that case:

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeet, now show me one game where I ever buddied my scumbuddy Good luck with that since I try to either stay away from them or bus them

Parama, more setup WIFOM and AtE is awesome

Not the slightest bit hostile.

********

So this smells like a bus from the start, with no power behind it in case the town wants to lynch parama. Which we very, very, very nearly did.


Additionally, by PoE:

Parama and Horror have roles that match the flavor and work together. Weird, but it works.
SPS--cop, role actually does match flavor, town seems underpowered without him.
ekiM--has been obv town all game, killed DDD at deadline.

Additionally parama and SPS have been tunneling on an obvtown player which in retrospect is too silly for them to be scum.


***************

Ok, I think that's everything on Mac. He has been on both scum wagons, but NOT AT ALL in the way a townie would be on those wagons. This is how you catch bussing scum people.

The "town seems underpowered without an SPS-cop" argument is still up in the air. I'm not good at setup analysis. I think it works though. 4 scum, and the town roles are doctor, hider, and limited namecop? Well I don't know what swordsman does unfortunately. In 3-1-8 games town can mislynch twice and lose.

[Jack]

There was probably scum that jumped on the wagon early, which is likely why DDD and wnh avoided it. That's my point. It makes bv/horror and you look worse, Parama better.

What are you babbling about? I look scummy for forcing DDD into the fence sitting position? Scum avoided the wagon because there was already scum on it, what are you talking about? The avoided the wagon because it was really fast and had a self vote and a random vote, tell me why you as scum would put a 6th vote on that wagon.

When Kmd made that post Day 2, my thoughts went to poisoner. When he didn't die Night 2, I moved on. Seeing it now brought the thought back up again. Who says that a Poisoner must kill the following night? It's likely, but is it 100%?

No, it's 99.9%. So lets lynch SPS because there is a .1% chance that there isn't a scum roleblocker because we have a crazy scum poisoner role?

It's very possible that we have 2 deaths the night we do a no lynch.

Uh, what? How would this be possible?

Scum kill the person the hider is hiding behind, they both die. If the hider is silly about it. Which they could very easily be.

You've entirely avoided explaining why you lied, and then lied about lying.

Never lied and you look terrible trying to push this. My role is townie and involves reading the thread. The information on DDD came from reading the thread. Thus it is role related information.

[MacavityLock]

There was probably scum that jumped on the wagon early, which is likely why DDD and wnh avoided it. That's my point. It makes bv/horror and you look worse, Parama better.

What are you babbling about? I look scummy for forcing DDD into the fence sitting position? Scum avoided the wagon because there was already scum on it, what are you talking about? The avoided the wagon because it was really fast and had a self vote and a random vote, tell me why you as scum would put a 6th vote on that wagon.

I wouldn't, but that's not what I'm talking about here. bv was the 1st vote and you were the 4th. Neither of those are particularly scary votes to be as scum.

When Kmd made that post Day 2, my thoughts went to poisoner. When he didn't die Night 2, I moved on. Seeing it now brought the thought back up again. Who says that a Poisoner must kill the following night? It's likely, but is it 100%?

No, it's 99.9%. So lets lynch SPS because there is a .1% chance that there isn't a scum roleblocker because we have a crazy scum poisoner role?

Did I say we should lynch SPS because of it?

It's very possible that we have 2 deaths the night we do a no lynch.

Uh, what? How would this be possible?

Scum kill the person the hider is hiding behind, they both die. If the hider is silly about it. Which they could very easily be.

More BS. I think we can figure out a way to tell the Hider to not hide if we do No Lynch.

You've entirely avoided explaining why you lied, and then lied about lying.

Never lied and you look terrible trying to push this. My role is townie and involves reading the thread. The information on DDD came from reading the thread. Thus it is role related information.

Are you kidding me? That's your excuse?

[Jack]

Okay, so these 4 issues are the only ones Mac feels he has an argument to stand on:

I wouldn't, but that's not what I'm talking about here. bv was the 1st vote and you were the 4th. Neither of those are particularly scary votes to be as scum.

Your argument was that there had to be one scum on the wagon. I am saying that the scumteam is Mac-DDD-Wolf. DDD and Wolf were not on the wagon. You are saying that as scum you would not be on the wagon. So you are saying that there doesn't have to be any scum on the wagon. QED

Did I say we should lynch SPS because of it?

Secondly, if Poisoner is a role, the last remaining role, wouldn't that conflict with the roleblocking that SPS has been claiming?

If SPS was lying about being roleblocked then he would be scum.

More BS. I think we can figure out a way to tell the Hider to not hide if we do No Lynch.

You can figure it out when you mention the possibility of no lynch, and that's what pro-town leaders usually do. My argument is that you were thinking more about looking innocent yourself than about the best town strategy, and not mentioning an obvious and important part of the strategy fits right in with that.

Are you kidding me? That's your excuse?

****************************

3 more votes on Mac. I threw a lot of stuff out there but the important bits are these:

1) town players don't react to what they think is an unstated cop/tracker type result the way he reacted
2) no town cred for bussing like scum
3) flailing today
4) PoE

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Also, that argument fails at probability. When we already know that 2 scum weren't on the wagon, it becomes way more likely that the third wasn't. And DDD's posts show that scum were wary of the wagon.

BS alert. Scum don't act as a group, especially on Day 1. Why wouldn't scum want to go for the mislynch (from their perspective)?

Jack is right here. And it's not about scum acting as a group. If you assume each scum acts independently (or at least that this is a good approximation) and you know that 2 scum weren't on the wagon, then all 3 scum not being on it is a very realistic scenario. You really have to assume that scum actively work towards having 1-2 people on the wagon if you want the "no scum on the wagon"-scenario to be unlikely.

Let's lynch this "Dread Pirate Roberts". I was hesitant earlier because he did contribute to the CMAR and DDD-lynch and I really hadn't adapted to CMAR being scum yet, but having ISOed him and CMAR and having read Jack's latest spate of posting, I see no reason not to.

Vote: MacavityLock

[farside22]

prodding:

horrordude0215
Parama
ekiM

[Parama]

lol that's only the third time ever that I've been prodded

Vote: SPS

dead game is dead

[ekiM]

I don't have time for a complete catch-up + thoughts right now. Hopefully tomorrow.

Flavor for Dread Pirate Roberts = miller, grandfather = cop is fine.

Last scum is Vizzini and kill flavor has changed because it's him carrying out the kill now? I question how common a roleblocker that can also kill the same night is. But I don't really know. I don't think any particular role is more or less likely to be given as a fakeclaim.

Doubt there's an extra kill running around from a poisoner.. we already saw an SK and a mafia kill in a 12p game. And where did the mafia kill go if KMD was an "extra" death? If KMD was poisoned he'd have just said so...

Still don't understand horror's name-claim ban. Doesn't seem like something that would be made up though?

Parama should've investigated the claimed miller (off chance).

It's dangerous to assume things like "scum would definitely be on that D1 wagon". Ain't so.

... and loads of mac vs Jack stuff I need to digest.

---

Interactions, jack vs mac, setup stuff comes later

SPS, Parama, horror need to be saying more than they are.

[farside22]

mass prod will be happening tomorrow if I don't see more posting people

[Jack]

Well I have nothing to say.

[Parama]

Same. There's really not much to do except lynch SPS for our perfect game.

[farside22]

Prodding everyone except Jack and Parama

[Jack]

[farside22]

I swear people.
Horror is close to needing to be replaced I think.

[Parama]

Let's just lynch SPS and get this game over with.

[Jack]

We only need 2 votes on Mac.