Mini 1009 ÔÇô Popularity mafia (Game over - Mafia wins)

[Johoohno]

Vote count Day 6

(4 players alive = 3 to lynch before deadline)

(1) No lynch - nopointinactingup
(1) tumescence - Simenon

Not voting: tumescence, Zdenek

Deadline is November 16

[Zdenek]

Rather than posting blocks of quotes, I'm just going to make comments. If you want clarification of anything let me know, and I'll do my best to provide it. It's late in the game, so I may accidentally miss commenting on something that you think is important, but that I happen to overlook. In case I do, please point it out, and I'll let you know what I think.

On Tum:

He doesn't post much in the beginning, which continues throughout the game. He hasn't said too much, but what he has said strikes me as townish. Perhaps the best point against him is that he has avoided controversy.

At the start of the game, he has only has town reads. Note that he correctly went against other's interpretations of Mothrax's "if by some weird chance he flips scum" comment. In retrospect, I agree with him because scum are not likely to speak so loosely, and might actively be trying to hide the fact that they know who is town. Although, that is easy for me to say in hindsight. Most of his reads have been correct except he was willing to lynch Korts early in the game, and his later read on Thief was that he was townish. I don't really see scum backing off of Thief when he did.

He has a brief interaction with Sim about how concise players ought to be, and comments that BB's style of posting helped him get a read on him. To me this comment does not seem forced.

He later makes a case against Sim, which he has been pushing for some time, but he had to back off of it because of night immunity nomination analysis. At the moment, I haven't thought too much about this analysis, so I don't have a comment on its correctness, but it is something that scum could have easily ignored, and the fact that he did it, suggests that he cares about lynching the right person.
___________________________________________________________

On Simenon:

He talks about playing styles at the start of the game. This is an easy way for scum to seem active while doing nothing,

He attacks BB, votes for Iron Man, and drops that to pursue a lurker lynch. This strikes me as definitely scummy.

His attack on Blackberry was based on Blackberry not wanting to participate in RVS, which isn't a bad reason to attack someone early, but he'll need a better reason later. He later continues to softly push a BB lynch, now for saying things like "genuine town player," and for over explaining. The rationale for his vote on Iron was good. As were his arguments against Cuet.

Then there is the mountainous business. He gets the number of mafia wrong which easily could have been contrived, and overall this is null.

He puts his vote back on Taz (Iron Man) and then switches to Thief. This is consistent with his earlier play, and Thief was scummy.

Lately, he's been attacking Tum. This is reasonable considering Tum's lurking, but Tum would be an easy mislynch at this point to secure a mafia win. His rationale for the tum vote is that he's been useless and he has town reads on nopoint and zoneace. Fair enough, but I think if I were in his shoes I would prefer to lynch to try to get my chances of hitting scum with an elimination argument up.
______________________________________________________________
Ectomancer/Shotty/nopoint

Ecto starts of the game aggressively, votes Iron man, Thief, pushes a cuet lynch and gets angry.
His vote on Iron Man was not for great reason, but so early in the game it was fine. His vote on Thief was preceded just by the comment that Thief could make fleas jump off a dog: scummy spaghetti flinging.

Shotty, votes Blackberry, mothrax, mimics Ecto's bad mothrax comment. His case on Mothrax was his only contribution.

On nopoint:

His first vote for Iron Man was for the reasons as Simenon.

He agressively attacked cuet. Cuet was scummy, so I see nothing wrong with this, but he got on the lurker wagon, which I don't like much. The constant attack on cuet could be a good way for scum to hide.

He was very confident about Taz being scum, and suspected bussing, but never really pursued that angle later.

Votes Thief, and correctly thinks the thief wagon is made up of mostly town's people town.

Now he votes no lynch, which is understandable.

______________________________________________________________
Also, I've realized that it will be hard for us to make a save tonight. There will be two town left, so if we both vote, we will end up in a tie. I think in case we miss scum today, we each flip a coin to decide whether or not to vote, and perhaps we'll get lucky. I'm open to other suggestions of course.
______________________________________________________________
Nopoint's and Simenon's votes: Nopoint's votes sort of follow Sim's. Nopoint could have been trying to derail the Thief lynching by pushing Cuet's, and the votes for scot were to avoid a no lynch. They also disagreed about BB.

ecto votes Iron Man, unvotes
Sim votes Iron Man
Shotty vote BB
Shotty votes Mothrax
nopoint votes Iron Man
sim votes CDB
nopoint votes CDB
Nopoint votes Taz
Sim votes Taz (sim voted Iron Man day 1)
nopoint votes cuet
simenon votes Thief
nopoint votes thief
nopoint goes between Cuet and thief
Sim votes BB
Nopoint BB is obv town
Sim votes tum
sim votes scot
nopoint votes scot
______________________________________________________________
BP nomination analysis:

Scot picked Simenon.
Nopoint picked Simenon.
ZONEACE picked scot.
Simenon picked ZONEACE.
Tums picked ZONEACE.

If Nopoint was lying, scum tried to kill Zoneace. This is possible.
If Sim was lying, scum tried to kill him, so he's clear.
If Tum's was lying Scum tried to kill Sims. This is possible.

Sims listed his night immunity nominations first, so he couldn't have ben scheming to get himself cleared this way. That said, scum not killing is possible however unlikely.

Tums went last, and his nomination created a tie.

Nopoint's choices of who to nominate (sim for the first 3 nights) seems to match with his voting pattern. I can't say if it is contrived or not.
____________________________________________________________
Everyone should post who they nominated to save last night.

Zoneace nominated no one.
______________________________________________________________
Despite the fact that I initially had a stronger scum read on Simenon, until more evidence is presented or someone has a good argument, I will not be in favour of a Simenon lynching on account of the night immunity nominations, and I am more suspicious of nopoint than Tums.

[nopointinactingup]

Ecto starts of the game aggressively, votes Iron man, Thief, pushes a cuet lynch and gets angry.
His vote on Iron Man was not for great reason, but so early in the game it was fine. His vote on Thief was preceded just by the comment that Thief could make fleas jump off a dog: scummy spaghetti flinging.

Why is it scummy that Ecto pointed out the two scums before he left?

He agressively attacked cuet. Cuet was scummy, so I see nothing wrong with this, but he got on the lurker wagon, which I don't like much. The constant attack on cuet could be a good way for scum to hide.

Though I hate to admit it, I really thought Cuet was ultra scummy and didn't understand why he didn't earn enough votes.

He was very confident about Taz being scum, and suspected bussing, but never really pursued that angle later.

I did pursue onto Cuet being on the Taz wagon.

Now he votes no lynch, which is understandable.

Why aren't you considering No Lynch. It gives us an edge in terms of probability.

Nopoint could have been trying to derail the Thief lynching by pushing Cuet's

I don't think so seeing as I specifically linked Thief to Cuet as scumbuddies.

Everyone should post who they nominated to save last night.

I nominated Sim.
Sim nominated you.
Tum nominated No one.
We all posted this already.

Some question for you though:
1> What spefically made you think Tum is town? Quote? Do you think the "avoiding controlversy" point is valid?
2> Why do you think it's unlikely that the scum went for a No Lynch on Night 3 and Night 5?
3> You saw and acknowledged the disadvantages of a 3 man LYLO, why do you insist we continue on?

[Zdenek]

Why is it scummy that Ecto pointed out the two scums before he left?

Pointing out the scum isn't scummy, what was scummy was that he made the comment about Thief making fleas jump off a dog without providing any reasoning. It's an unjustified insult to throw suspicion onto someone, and to see what comes of it.

We all posted this already.

Oops, sorry.

Some question for you though:
1> What spefically made you think Tum is town? Quote? Do you think the "avoiding controlversy" point is valid?
2> Why do you think it's unlikely that the scum went for a No Lynch on Night 3 and Night 5?
3> You saw and acknowledged the disadvantages of a 3 man LYLO, why do you insist we continue on?

1. I think avoiding controversy can be scummy, so yes, I think it is valid.

Here is what he's done that makes me think he is town:
ISO 7: Tum seems to be genuine; he's trying to read people.
ISO 20: He backs off of Thief, when it would have probably been convenient to bus him.
ISO 39: He works out that it is unlikely for Simenon to be scum and backs off his lynch, scum could have neglected to point this out.
Voting for Simenon is taking an unpopular position, I would expect scum to take an easier road.

2. I think no lynch on night five is much more likely than on night three. As far as night three goes, I have no idea what actually happened, but the result of it was that Sim because a lot less suspicious, and it seems that analysis of the nominations clears him. Because of the order in which they were revealed, it is unlikely that he setup this result. So either way, whether sum tried to kill or not, I think it is unlikely that Simenon is scum.

3. I don't insist that we continue on. On the one hand our odds of randomly voting scum go up in 3 man LYLO, but in a four man end game there are more town voices to be heard. I can see the advantages with both.

[Zdenek]

Mod:
Nopoint has voted no lynch. I'm not sure if you want to count that in the vote count.
Also, Tumescence and Simenon need to be prodded

After some consideration, I am leaning towards no lynch. We may as well let scum increase the likelihood that we lynch scum tomorrow. I know Simenon objects, and I'd like to hear what Tum has to say about it before voting. Perhaps the best argument against it is that we will simply be wasting our time because the mafia will no kill, so we should just get the game over with today. If we all get our thoughts in now, the extra town voice that we have now, will still be heard tomorrow, and verified as town.

[Simenon]

reading up
Nopoint, you never answered me post-correction.
Not lynching will accomplish nothing that lynching could. If there is remotely a dilemma in the town, the scum will kill the least scummy townsperson. If the town has genuine disagreement, scum will simply hold the kill. If not lynching would genuinely increase the odds, why would the scum allow it?

[Simenon]

Perhaps the best point against him is that he has avoided controversy.

What the hell is this supposed to mean?

In retrospect, I agree with him because scum are not likely to speak so loosely, and might actively be trying to hide the fact that they know who is town.

Loose lips are easy to affect.

At the moment, I haven't thought too much about this analysis, so I don't have a comment on its correctness, but it is something that scum could have easily ignored, and the fact that he did it, suggests that he cares about lynching the right person.

What the hell is this supposed to mean?

He attacks BB, votes for Iron Man, and drops that to pursue a lurker lynch. This strikes me as definitely scummy.

Read more closely.
I switched to a lurker wagon so that we could lynch that day. There was no other way.
I like your coin-flipping idea.

Voting for Simenon is taking an unpopular position, I would expect scum to take an easier road.

Why has this not been easy for him? Who's been giving him shit for this, other than me? Scott, but he's dead. Thanks to tum.

[nopointinactingup]

reading up
Nopoint, you never answered me post-correction.
Not lynching will accomplish nothing that lynching could. If there is remotely a dilemma in the town, the scum will kill the least scummy townsperson. If the town has genuine disagreement, scum will simply hold the kill. If not lynching would genuinely increase the odds, why would the scum allow it?

Exactly .. I don't see much reason to disagree with the No Lynch option. That is why I'm baffled that everyone opposed to it. Think about it. If we don't lynch today there will be 3 towns and 1 scum entering the Night. It doesn't matter which person the scum decides to target (WIFOMic), our odds of getting a successful protect shoots way up in comparison with a 2 towns - 1 scum Night. If we mislynch today, VERY LIKELY ODDS ARE we loose and I do not feel like playing with fire.

[Zdenek]

Perhaps the best point against him is that he has avoided controversy.

What the hell is this supposed to mean?

I think avoiding controversy is scummy and that Tums has done it at times.

At the moment, I haven't thought too much about this analysis, so I don't have a comment on its correctness, but it is something that scum could have easily ignored, and the fact that he did it, suggests that he cares about lynching the right person.

What the hell is this supposed to mean?

Tums did the the analysis of the night kill immunity nominations that essentially cleared you. If he was scum, he could have ignored them or at least waited for someone else to do them.

Voting for Simenon is taking an unpopular position, I would expect scum to take an easier road.

Why has this not been easy for him? Who's been giving him shit for this, other than me? Scott, but he's dead. Thanks to tum.

If he was scum, he could have bussed his partners which would make himself appear more pro-town, and he would have drawn less attention to himself. It was the analysis of the night kill immunity nominations that led him to take his vote off of you, so I don't think the switch was that odd.

Simenon, is your argument that nopoint is town based just on the Cuet night kill?

[Johoohno]

Mod:
Nopoint has voted no lynch. I'm not sure if you want to count that in the vote count.
Also, Tumescence and Simenon need to be prodded

Sorry about missing the no lynch vote, I've edited the vote count at the top of this page now. Tum has now been prooded.

[tumescence]

Sorry for the long absence. Basically my home internet has gone kaput, and I didn't really get a chance to use a cyber cafe uptil now. Will read and post soon. We have 10 days before deadline.

[tumescence]

I'm fine going for a no-lynch.

Vote: no one

.

Hi Zdenek, welcome.
==============
I wouldn't no-kill night 3, but

Simenon might have

. I think a no-kill night 3 would be terrible, but Simenon

might have found it more advantageous than disadvantageous.

Day 4 I gave Simenon the

benefit of the doubt.

I lynched Scot and hoped the game would end.

But this is now

mylo

, and the no-kill analysis is too flimsy to be a point in Simenon's favor.

I don't suspect nopointactingup at all, and I'm iffy on Zdenek.

If I had to, I would lynch Simenon.
===================
@Zdenek:
I'm pretty darn sure that nopointactingup is town. Just as sure as I was about mothrax or cuet or BB. So if you're town, my advice is you should concentrate on me and Simenon.

[Simenon]

Exactly .. I don't see much reason to disagree with the No Lynch option. That is why I'm baffled that everyone opposed to it. Think about it. If we don't lynch today there will be 3 towns and 1 scum entering the Night. It doesn't matter which person the scum decides to target (WIFOMic), our odds of getting a successful protect shoots way up in comparison with a 2 towns - 1 scum Night. If we mislynch today, VERY LIKELY ODDS ARE we loose and I do not feel like playing with fire.

Don't see how that's useful with no nightkill.

I think avoiding controversy is scummy and that Tums has done it at times.[/quote
Read that wrong, sorry

If he was scum, he could have bussed his partners which would make himself appear more pro-town, and he would have drawn less attention to himself. It was the analysis of the night kill immunity nominations that led him to take his vote off of you, so I don't think the switch was that odd.

Again, that's contrary to fact. Tum went under the radar for a substantial stretch of the game, no matter what you think of his motivations.

Simenon, is your argument that nopoint is town based just on the Cuet night kill?

Partially, yes. He's also said the right things at the right times.

I wouldn't no-kill night 3, but Simenon might have. I think a no-kill night 3 would be terrible, but Simenon might have found it more advantageous than disadvantageous.

Day 4 I gave Simenon the benefit of the doubt. I lynched Scot and hoped the game would end.

But this is now mylo, and the no-kill analysis is too flimsy to be a point in Simenon's favor.

Replace "Simenon" with "tumescence" and the effect is the exact same, so I don't know what you're trying to prove here.

[Simenon]

Exactly .. I don't see much reason to disagree with the No Lynch option. That is why I'm baffled that everyone opposed to it. Think about it. If we don't lynch today there will be 3 towns and 1 scum entering the Night. It doesn't matter which person the scum decides to target (WIFOMic), our odds of getting a successful protect shoots way up in comparison with a 2 towns - 1 scum Night. If we mislynch today, VERY LIKELY ODDS ARE we loose and I do not feel like playing with fire.

Don't see how that's useful with no nightkill.

I think avoiding controversy is scummy and that Tums has done it at times.

Read that wrong, sorry

If he was scum, he could have bussed his partners which would make himself appear more pro-town, and he would have drawn less attention to himself. It was the analysis of the night kill immunity nominations that led him to take his vote off of you, so I don't think the switch was that odd.

Again, that's contrary to fact. Tum went under the radar for a substantial stretch of the game, no matter what you think of his motivations.

Simenon, is your argument that nopoint is town based just on the Cuet night kill?

Partially, yes. He's also said the right things at the right times.

I wouldn't no-kill night 3, but Simenon might have. I think a no-kill night 3 would be terrible, but Simenon might have found it more advantageous than disadvantageous.

Day 4 I gave Simenon the benefit of the doubt. I lynched Scot and hoped the game would end.

But this is now mylo, and the no-kill analysis is too flimsy to be a point in Simenon's favor.

[/quote]
Replace "Simenon" with "tumescence" and the effect is the exact same, so I don't know what you're trying to prove here.

[Zdenek]

Vote: no lynch

No point in waiting around for the deadline for something that is almost inevitable.

[nopointinactingup]

@Sim: Well it's worth a try because we have nothing to loose. It opens up more options for us to take as I haven't seen anything that incriminates anyone yet. I don't feel like Tum is buddying up to me because his posts look so forward and genuine so I'm not up for a Tum lynch today. Zdenek looks lynchable, but better safe than sorry, No Lynch is the best option.

[Johoohno]

Final vote count Day 6

(4 players alive = 3 to lynch before deadline)

(3) No lynch – nopointinactingup, tumescence, Zdenek

(1) tumescence - Simenon

Not voting: ---

This day town goes with a new strategy: “let’s not lynch at all! And tomorrow the situation should be a lot clearer.” Eagerly they all awaited the night.

It is now night and all townies should send in a person they want to grant night kill immunity (see rules for proper format, YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO VOTE FOR YOURSELF), and mafia may discuss in their given thread and then PM me the person they want to night kill.

Deadline night 6: November 10

[Johoohno]

Day 7

[/size]

This morning Zdenek doesn’t come down for the town meeting. He’s been killed.

Zdenek,

Townie

, killed Night 6.

Day seven is rolling. With 3 alive it takes 2 to lynch before deadline.

Deadline is December 1

[Simenon]

Protected nopoint.
Lost at the moment because I don't see the advantage either of you could have gained by killing Z.

[nopointinactingup]

I nominated Simenon. But I didn't think the scum would be so foolish enough to do this after my explanation so we're not in bad shape. NK speculation do show that Simenon has more the reason to kill Zdenek than Tum, but Tum could have easily used this deduction to his advantage. Simenon has played a pretty spotless game so far and his above hesitance is town-minded. However, if Tum was scum, he would have to be incredibly manipulative, which by reading his posts and characteristics, I find it hard to believe. In the end, I just don't know who to believe in, though I'm slightly leaning Simenon genius scum at the moment. Will start IsO-ing to see what is up.

[nopointinactingup]

I just realized something. Tum basically called me confirmed town yesterday. So if Tum wasn't scum, there's no way Simenon would kill Zdenek and leave Tum with his confirmed town Nopoint to LYLO. That would mean he would have to bet on being able to convince me that Tum is scum while Tum is certain that he is scum. Would Simenon make that kind of a mistake?

[tumescence]

So if Tum wasn't scum, there's no way Simenon would kill Zdenek and leave Tum with his confirmed town Nopoint to LYLO. That would mean he would have to bet on being able to convince me that Tum is scum while Tum is certain that he is scum. Would Simenon make that kind of a mistake?

How's it a mistake? If you read Zdenet's suspicions, you'll see that he was initially very suspicious of Simenon, but my no-kill analysis was the main thing that dissuaded him to switch away from making Simenon his main FOS. If Zdenet were alive today, I think I could have convinced him that Simenon is mafia.

I've analyzed the night-kill, and really, I could theorize motivations for any of us. Simenon killed Zdenek coz he hopes to convince you/I killed Zdenek coz I hope to convince you/you killed Zdenek coz he was attacking you. That is to say, can we just leave off the night-kill analysis, coz we could argue till this dawn and get no further.

===========================

Vote: Simenon

@nopoint: I'll end up voting Simenon anyway, so I don't want to waste my breath in the off-chance you're scum. So if you're mafia, please just hammer and end the game now (I know I'm gonna get abuse from one of you for being rash on lylo, but I just don't want to waste energy). If you're town, I can try and argue against Simenon.

[nopointinactingup]

Sorry Tum. You bet on an off chance not worth betting. Simenon is town.

Vote:Simenon

My comment will be deferred till after the lynch scene.

[Johoohno]

Final vote count Day 7

(3 players alive = 2 to lynch before deadline)

(2) Simenon – tumescence, nopointinactingup

Not voting: Simenon

With a ”what evah-attitude” Simenon is hastily lynched and nopointinactingup then swiftly kills off tumescence too. He is then heard cheering all the way down the now empty village street ”This all now belongs to me!”

Simenon,

Townie

, lynched Day 7

Scum wins!

First post, night choice and scum thread (if the scums agrees to give it out) will be given later today when I have the time.

[Simenon]

FUCK YOU GUYS