Newbie 1024 -- Minimalist Mafia (Game Over)

[RedCoyote]

ØØOOOOOO

Final Vote Count

• Nachomamma8

  (Neruz - Mute - Kayi - Jay)
  
  
  Trendall

  (Mastin - Yenros)

  
  

  Neruz

  (Nachomamma8)

  
  

  Yenros

  (Trendall)

With no candidate reaching the minimum number of votes required to lynch before the deadline, there will be no lynch and an end to the second day.
Night 2 has a three day deadline and begins now.

Current Deadline: Dec. 14th, 2010 at 1:30 PM

[RedCoyote]

ØØOOOOOO

No one died Night 2.

Vote Count 1

• Not Voting

  (Jay - Kayi - Neruz - Mastin - Yenros - Mute - Trendall - Nachomamma8)

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.

New

Deadline: Jan. 4th, 2011 at 1:30 PM

[Mastin]

...Huh? Not Mute?!?

Anyway, I've been working on Trendall's past games. The results are definitely intriguing; I'm on the last two pages (post-game) of his first game; I'm looking for issues to be resolved in there, 'cause I'm seeing some things which make no sense compared to Trendall's current play, in my mind.

[Mute]

I'm just as surprised as you are Mastin.
If it matters, last night I protected Neruz. Figured that the scum'd rather target someone who was causing an uproar, and it was a toss-up between you and him if they were going to kill anyone.

I've got crazy dumb luck, or there was no kill again.

[Neruz]

Well now, that's interesting. I can't help but wonder if the mafia is deliberately no killing.

[Mastin]

For reference, Trendall's play this game isn't making much sense to me right now with his first game in mind. *irrelevant stuff about timezones and waiting for day to dawn deleted*

To answer Trendall in 473, I am referring to it seeming like you and I haven't been seeing eye to eye, and it's been that way for quite some time. Hence, the line about it being hard this game, and the curiosity which ensues.
Anyway, I'm resuming my Trendall read. (In Notepad. >_<)

Spoiler: Trendall's Past Games Continued

Trendall claims to be doing a reread here.

Is hesitant to vote, claiming to be unfamiliar with theory and strategy at that point. He fears mislynching. Says that he's suspicious of Esurious (expecting her to have played better--a familiar fallacy to this game [EDIT WITH BELOW INFORMATION: Given esurious's role, Trendall's stance this game is slightly more believable--what I don't get is his reversal]), and thinks information can be gained either way.

Hmm...I wonder,

Trendall:

Are there any players this game which you think valuable information will be gained regardless of their alignment if they are lynched? (If everyone, who would you say would gain the most information, regardless of their alignment?) If so, why?

Apparently, I have a lot in common with esorios, based on that rant of a wall. This is relevant because if Trendall has seen this kind of play before, he should know how to better handle it, logically. (Things you've encountered before, you're far more likely to be prepared for. Makes sense to me.) (EDIT WITH BELOW: Her alignment explains Trendall's view.)

Hmm...what was esurios's alignment? *checks the first po--* Oh.

That

explains a lot. I thought the scum was someone else. (Note to self: When reading games for meta, stop reading them from the viewpoint of a spectator [trying to be a player] [I read a lot of games {mainly, to keep my skills up}] and put a note as to who the scum are--in this game, Foilist and esurious.) It being esurios actually *does* explain Trendall's early view on me, though it now makes me wonder why he switched from seeing me as scum (like he [correctly] did esurious) to seeing me as town.

Trendall:

What caused your change in opinion about me? From most likely scum to very likely town? (I think that was your wording, roughly. I'll get the exact phrasing if necessary, but you get the idea; I want to know what caused the reversal.) I don't see it. I can't see anything in your past games (so far), so it must've been from this game; what was it?

Interesting note: In Trendall's first game, the scum both advocated for a No Lynch, with no discussion (after a failed NK). (This is how I was taught to play those situations too, by the way. The logic of the No Lynch has been explained this game as well--even numbers have worse odds for a successful lynch.) To me, this seems to show that Trendall--if he followed the logic of most (newbie, at least) players--would be weary to no lynch after a No Death night.

Also interesting: AlamasterGM brought up pretty much exactly what's happened this game (only a day later): The doctor claimed with their protect, meaning said protect (Kayi) is more likely to be town, and the doctor (Mute) is confirmed, and will almost surely die due to the No Lynch, when we should've lynched. The first post says that Foilist (scum) was lynched Day 3 (the day after the no-death), with a setup pretty similar to what's gone on this game.

Trendall:

What's changed since your first game that makes your opinion on the matter nearly identical to the scum of your first game? (You advocated a No Lynch on even numbers, like Foilist and Esurios did in your first game, instead of AGM's/Friend's strategy of the doctor claiming.)

(In my experience, newbies tend to think that play from scum is play to think is wrong.)

Anyway, this is (hopefully) part 2 of only 3 on gathering Trendall's Meta into one location. Then, when the final picture is assembled, I'll put it all together in one spot, and compare to Trendall's play this game. So far, I'm getting a lot of conflicting data.

[Mastin]

Ack, I have to leave sooner than expected. Be back soon. :/

[Neruz]

Well, in light of the events in a game that just finished, i am reminded that letting someone get away with obfuscating posting styles is a really bad idea because it masks real scumtells (same concept as LaL). So with that in mind.

VOTE: Mastin

[Trendall]

So, did anyone catch what happened at the end of day two there? Mastin had a choice. He could either hammer on Nacho, who was apparently equal with me at the top of his list of suspects, or he could not vote for Nacho and have the day end in a no-lynch. Mastin was vehemently opposing a no-lynch throughout the whole of day two, yet he still chose to not hammer on Nacho. Mastin chose not to hammer on Nacho, despite the fact that he was arguing against me throughout all of day two for 'fencesitting'. Mastin chose not to hammer on Nacho, despite the fact that he thinks that, and I quote,

'if you're more than 25% sure someone's scum (9 players minus self-->8 players, 2 scum-->2/8-->25%.), then you should still be voting them'

. As far as I can see here, Mastin and Nacho are the two mafia. If they're not, then I don't know what to think.

VOTE: Mastin

[Nachomamma8]

I remain open to be convinced otherwise, but until you turned up the only people i had any sort of reasonable scumread on were Trendall and Mastin, 'one of them is probably scum' seems like a fairly logical conclusion.

And how, exactly, do you get two mislynches just from that? Obviously if i conclude that there is likely to be scum within a group i am going to analyse the group very carefully, work out which one is scum and attempt to lynch that one. You seem to be implying that if that person flips town the correct response is to go "Oh that means the other person must be scum!" But without having conflicting accounts that is not even remotely the logical choice. If you conclude that there is probably scum within a group, pick out the person within said group you believe to be scum, lynch them and find they flip town, the correct conclusion is that you were probably wrong about there being scum in the group.

This is the optimal town procedure, yes, but this isn't what ends up happening. I'll find an example later.

Which means it's still your job. Just because everyone has the same job doesn't lessen the fact that you have it too.

No, but just because I'm one of the few people who was actually working on his job doesn't mean that I should be expected to do all of it, comprende?

Uh, i'm not acting ilke hyperbole is new to me, i'm acting like it's a scum tell, because it is. Hyperbole is used to create a stronger impression than would normally be gotten from simply referencing the facts, now tell me Nacho, in a Mafia game, who would want to create a stronger impression than normal towards something. Which side would want to exxagurate in order to manipulate people into seeing something as better or worse than it really is? Hmm...

Town wants to do that because they can never be very confident whether they've truly netted scum or not, and acting more confident then you really are is a great way to apply a good amount of pressure.
Scum want to do that too so they can push a case harder with less evidence.

So, both sides...?

[Neruz]

Acting more confident than you really are is a great way to tunnel and end up lynching someone completely incorrectly.

We're into Day 3 Nacho, surely you can find something a little more solid to apply pressure with than mere confidence? That's Day 1 play.

[Nachomamma8]

Bleh. I can't convince myself that Mastin is scum, though. Why would he NOT hammer me if he was? He set up the hammer perfectly by being vehemently against a no-lynch today, like Trendall said. Especially considering that I hadn't claimed yet.

And yeah, yeah, I'm working on it.

[Nachomamma8]

For now, though

Vote: Yoenros

.
I expect some content now...

[Neruz]

I also noticed this just now, purely by coincidence;

...Huh? Not Mute?!?

Now, correct me if i'm wrong, but i'm fairly sure that kind of 'surprise' type reaction after the night is a relatively basic scum tell. It's not much, but given the situation it is relevant.


Also, interesting vote there Nacho.

Also also, you spelled Yenros wrong.

[Nachomamma8]

Unvote, Vote: Yenros

It's more of a placeholder than anything. It will happily be pushed to a lynch if Yenros doesn't respond soon, however, since I've seen his name at the bottom of my screen for the second time in a row and he sure as hell isn't in any other games but this one.

[Yenros]

Trendall, you never answered me or jay.

@Trendall: I can see where you are coming from, but could you explain your Yenros vote a little more, just in case I'm missing something. I assume it is because you have answered many of those suspicions/arguments already, but... I'm not sure.

Trend, that really looks like OMGUS when you don't explain, so may Io ask why?

Mastin, I always thought active lurking was when someone was posting just enough to keep from getting prodded, but not posting content.

@ Nacho, I'm actually rereading parts of day 2, and have been interrupted twice.

[Yenros]

going to finish rereading day 2 tomorrow, also I noticed in my last post I left out that the questions was in reference to this

I'm done with defending myself against these ridiculous arguments. I also think that Mastin is probably town.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Yenros

I also feel I should point out that the interruptions were RL, since reading that last part makes it sound like Nacho was one of those.

[Mute]

I also noticed this just now, purely by coincidence;

...Huh? Not Mute?!?

Now, correct me if i'm wrong, but i'm fairly sure that kind of 'surprise' type reaction after the night is a relatively basic scum tell. It's not much, but given the situation it is relevant.

I'm actually with Nacho on this, even though I still hold Nacho as a mafia member. Why'd Mastin go out on such a lark to make that sta--

So, did anyone catch what happened at the end of day two there? Mastin had a choice. He could either hammer on Nacho, who was apparently equal with me at the top of his list of suspects, or he could not vote for Nacho and have the day end in a no-lynch. Mastin was vehemently opposing a no-lynch throughout the whole of day two, yet he still chose to not hammer on Nacho. Mastin chose not to hammer on Nacho, despite the fact that he was arguing against me throughout all of day two for 'fencesitting'. Mastin chose not to hammer on Nacho, despite the fact that he thinks that, and I quote,

'if you're more than 25% sure someone's scum (9 players minus self-->8 players, 2 scum-->2/8-->25%.), then you should still be voting them'

. As far as I can see here, Mastin and Nacho are the two mafia. If they're not, then I don't know what to think.

Well... damn.

HoS: Mastin

You did the same thing L22 did (prior to his replacement with Nacho8) and withheld a hammer vote? Your reaction seems rather silly as well, as common sense would tell you a doctor generally can't protect ones self from harm.

Lucy, you got some 'splainin' to do.

[Neruz]

I said that, not Nacho

[Mute]

I was referring to this Neruz:

Bleh. I can't convince myself that Mastin is scum, though. Why would he NOT hammer me if he was? He set up the hammer perfectly by being vehemently against a no-lynch today, like Trendall said. Especially considering that I hadn't claimed yet.

I just can't understand why Mastin'd react like that.

[Trendall]

Trendall, you never answered me or jay.

Is this the only thing you have to be concerned about right now? Somebody voting for you? If you want to know, I voted for you for pretty much the same reasons that Nacho is voting for you today. I wanted to get you to actually say something useful.

[Kayi]

Mastin: Why did you not hammer Nacho, even though by your logic a No Lynch was statistically worse for the town?
Trendall: Why do you thought Mastin was town on D2? What made you change your mind? And why did you change your mind again now?
Yenros: Why do you keep lurking and not post anything positive?


The fact that Nacho wasn't hammered though, makes me feel that he's scum and that his partner is one of those who didn't vote.

[Trendall]

Trendall: Why do you thought Mastin was town on D2? What made you change your mind? And why did you change your mind again now?

I'd never really made that much of a decision in the first place, which you'll be able to see me repeatedly saying in my posts. I came to the conclusion that he was probably town near the end of the day, but then his hesitation to hammer on Nacho seems mega scummy to me, so I now think that he's probably mafia. I'm allowed to change my mind, aren't I?

[Jay]

If mafia was purposely not killing anyone, what would they benefit from it? It seems to me like that'd be more of a hassle than anything. But, since this is the second time no one was killed, it seems like it is more of a possibility than before.

[Mastin]

Side-note:

Spoiler: This Is Just a Mild Off-topic Ramble

I feel like IC's aren't what they used to be. (Edit: I don't think it's their fault--they know HOW to teach due to the Being a Good IC article, but not WHAT to teach.) IC's used to be the beacons of light in Newbie Games. I feel like nowadays, they put far too much opinion** into their posts about teaching. This furthers my need to write that guide I want to, for Newbies. I'm thinking of making an abridged version of that guide, basically a guide list of things every IC should tell their Newbies to do, to give a standard baseline for them, to take a lot of the opinion out of it and give ICs a great way to, well, teach.
How I'd do this, not sure, but I'm thinking that I should take the best pieces of every IC's lesson in every game*. (It's not so hard, 'specially with ISO and Ctrl+F to find their lessons.) Combining the best of the better ICs gives you an excellent starting point. People who SE the way I do (as in, acting like a second or [in lucky cases] third IC) would also be included.
(I plan to do this for the more extensive version of my Newbie Guide, too, but even BETTER done.)

*Obviously not every Newbie Game Ever; basically, every game in the last hundred or so, plus games in the 500-800 range (particularly, the 700's), where I used to play.
**Heck, just take a look at me. I had to stop labeling my SEssions as SEssions 'cause I feared they were beginning to have too much opinion in them. It's not something an IC would EVER do intentionally; that violates a clause in the Being a Good IC article, which--contrary to the article saying it's for scum-aligned IC's only--I feel applies for all alignments. It just happens, without them noticing. This needs to change.

When I get around to actually doing the guide--if this game is still ongoing--I'll probably need mod permission to post it, though. :/

Anyway, with that small side-thought out of my system, it's time for me to address the points. (I have an hour.) Maybe I'll finish the Trendall Meta, too, depending on how long this distraction lasts.

---

Well, in light of the events in a game that just finished,

Do link me. I cannot defend against a game I cannot see.

Mastin had a choice. He could either hammer on Nacho, who was apparently equal with me at the top of his list of suspects, or he could not vote for Nacho and have the day end in a no-lynch.

My data was not finished, Trendall. If I had voted Nacho, that would've been the hammer. So, obviously, I wanted to do my analysis. I did, but wasn't finished when I had to leave. Considering I had to leave five minutes before I posted that, obviously, posting that was a bit rushed. Naturally, I didn't hammer. It was a day before the deadline. Others probably would've chimed in, I figured. Others would have hammered, so I shouldn't end the day a day before deadline, even if I wouldn't be online at the deadline, to let others talk. Like, oh, say, YOU, instead of making a last-minute vote for Yenros who you had no chance of getting a lynch on.

My data's still inconclusive, because I haven't had the chance to finish my reads. Nacho, for example, hasn't given me a link to his meta, like I asked him to yesterday. He didn't claim, despite being at L-1, either, and he deserved that chance.

Give me the time I need to finish my reads; I'm almost done. Then, I'll form a conclusion. I'm so close. Just need a little more time to put the pieces of the puzzle together. Once the last pieces of data are strung together, I can look at it all put together, to form a solid view. I've got a lot of info. I'm this close to finishing the last of it, and then I do the analysis half. And when I do, I'll have it. I'll have the scum; I'm sure of it. Off-site, this stage in the game is my specialty. Off-site, when we're this late in a game, when I have all the evidence ready, I'll be capable of stringing it all together, to weave the small hints here and there together, and find the scum. So, just you wait, Trendall. I will not stay inconclusive for long. No more gut reads. It's all information, from here-on out.

So, that should adequately explain why I didn't hammer Nacho. 1: Inconclusive data; too late into the game for me to use my gut between the two. 2: A day before deadline; people still needed to talk. 3: Nacho hadn't claimed. 4: Related to two, it was a whole day before deadline. While I knew it was MY last day of access, it was not the whole town's. Others should've had the chance to talk, and more than that, there were two other players who could've hammered. (Three, if Nacho believed that his lynch would be more valuable than a no lynch. It's something which a town-player at L-1 on the day of the deadline would consider.) Essentially.

Now, correct me if i'm wrong, but i'm fairly sure that kind of 'surprise' type reaction after the night is a relatively basic scum tell.

You're referring to the classic scum tell which is basically Congratulating the Doctor, cursing at the death of a PR, etc. It's outdated, to say the least. No, I was honestly surprised. If you look at the post I made (the spoilered stuff), you'd notice that I was saying that Mute was almost surely going to die. I was typing that up Tuesday, before day dawned. When it turned out Mute was alive, I truly was shocked, because, well, quite frankly, Mute SHOULD have died. Mute's clear, to me. Why SHOULDN'T Mute have died, Neruz? I am--by nature--quite analytical. (Which is why I hate by irony that I use my gut so much.) And by analysis, Mute was the logical choice of kills. It makes no sense to me for Mute to be alive.

---

Anyway, I've got 40 minutes left. If you don't mind, I'm going to ignore any further attacks on me for a while. "WTF?!? WHY?!?" Simple: If I continue to defend myself, I might convince people I'm telling the truth...but, well, quite frankly, I suck. More likely than not, I wouldn't; we'd stalemate, and my time would be wasted.

...Instead, I'll actually use my time productively, and try to finish gathering the information on Trendall. (Also,

Nacho:

Please give me a link to your latest scum game and your latest town game, like I requested of you yesterday.) That way, I can analyze it. It'll be there for everyone to see, so that when I'm dead, everyone will know where I stood, will have that information available, and will understand why I came to the conclusions I did, and they might make the most of it. In other words, right now, I really need to scum hunt, not waste my time defending myself.