Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Looks like VCA (junk) combined with facile appeals to authority in dead townies (logical fallacy). Way to crystalize your spot near the top of my list, Rhinox.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Macrophage (3) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPeitro
Debonair Danny DiPietro (2) - rhinox

Not Voting (8) - 4nxi3ty, Alicewondering, Sleepless Assassin, DCLXVI, fishythefish, Macrophage

With 11 alive and 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is May 3rd, 6PM PST

[Rhinox]

Looks like VCA (junk) combined with facile appeals to authority in dead townies (logical fallacy). Way to crystalize your spot near the top of my list, Rhinox.

I don't really care where I am on your list or how many buzzwords you can fit into a single sentence

[4nxi3ty]

End of Day vote count with my townreads in light green:

End of Day Vote Count

Lastsurvivor

(7) -

nachomamma8

, 4nxi3ty,

DCLXVI

, Macrophage,

Alicewondering

,

kortul

, hiplop
Macrophage (3) - Voidedmafia, Debonair Danny DiPietro,

rhinox

Debonair Danny DiPietro (3) - Sleepless Assassin,

fishythefish

,

Lastsurvivor

My current thinking is DDD-scum. That makes SA and voided lean-town, and likely 2 of {4nxi3ty, Macro, hiplop} scum - probably 4nx and 1 of the other 2. SA's vote doesn't feel like a bus. He made comments at the end of the day about not liking either of Macro/LS wagons, while voting DDD. Voided/DDD, eh possible, but I think DDD's recent post points to no. DDD find reasons to call everyone scummy BUT voided. If DDD is scum, thats a pretty good sign voided is town. I don't think hiplop/macro are scum together, so that would make 4nx scum by POE. One of Macro/hiplop as the last scum? I'm not confident here. I could possibly see myself having a bad read on like kortul, or mayyyybe fishy.

it is too early for wagon analysis, you need at least one scumflip. I have to agree that I don't really like DDD's wide range negative attack on everyone. Your kortul read is good, fishy read could be bad.

---

since I was wrong about LS it stands to reason my Macro read could also be wrong, probably not gonna fight a macro lynch today >.>

just going to sit on my vote until I can get my scumdar recalibrated.

[Rhinox]

Well its not really VCA in the traditional sense. DDD is my strongest scum suspect already I'm not using the VCA to say he's scum. The rest of the VCA is assuming DDD flips scum, following general truths(TM) such as scum likely to be on the D1 mislynch, scum generally spreading out across town wagons, not bussing early if they can avoid it, possibly voting a scum partner if it looks like the lynch won't go through, etc.


Also

V/LA for a couple days

starting now should be back by sunday but don't want to just up and disapear.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Vote 4n

Not a lot has changed since Day 1. Lastlynch was as terrible as it was before it happened. Macrolynch is almost as bad. DDD, DCL, and 4n are still the scums.

And for those who missed it the first time, here's why I'm voting 4n:

Just because I have some free time and laptop access (both of which are rarities for me) and it seemed to help the first time, I'm going to do a few more ISOs.
<chop, irrelevant hip ISO>
Next, I kind of want to look at 4n. I haven't really seen a whole lot that's stood out about him, but for some reason, my gut is leaning towards him possibly being scum. So let's take a look.
ISO 0: Votes fish for "stating the obvious" regarding updated wills. I like this because the same thing stood out to me.
ISO 1: Accepts fish's explanation, but leaves the vote. Could he have forgotten to unvote? Or maybe he saw nothing to vote on?
ISO 2: Votes Last in a vote-only post.
ISO 3: Votes Malee for being "jumpy". Looks like a wagon hop to me. Honestly, I see scum voting town here. Maybe I'm wrong on Malee. Also, what was the Last vote all about?
ISO 7: Answers "what do you think of DDD" with a wishy washy maybe scum maybe town answer. I don't think he's done anything to try to clarify the read either. What really gets me is the use of an exclamation point in "I could easily see scum!" and then where I expect an explanation and maybe mini-case, it starts to turn into maybe he's town, let's wait and see.
ISO 8: This is a pretty bad answer to Rhinox's question about whether Malee's actions make sense as scum.
ISO 9: Another pot-shot like the one on DDD, this time at Rhinox. Says he is reactive rather than proactive. It's a negative, maybe scum, kind of point to make, but nothing to pursue. It seems like he's leaving these trails that he can point back to and say "see, they gave me bad vibes here".
ISO 11: Unvotes Malee for replacement. If 4n was wagon-hopping scum, this is a good move because for whatever reason nobody ever lynches someone who replaces out while being wagoned. Shows a strong preference for Alicescum rather than Bikescum. If my reads on the two are correct, this makes sense for 4nScum because Bike would be his scumbuddy.
Overall: Holy fuck, 4n is scum. Assuming I'm right, Malee is town because there is no way they are buddies. Bike and 4n are definitely buddies though. If I was a dayvig, I'd be shooting 4n in this post and voting Bike because they both need to die Day 1.

That's gonna have to be all for now.
<chop, irrelevant overall reads portion of post>

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Looks like VCA (junk) combined with facile appeals to authority in dead townies (logical fallacy). Way to crystalize your spot near the top of my list, Rhinox.

I don't really care where I am on your list or how many buzzwords you can fit into a single sentence

Hey, I don't care about those things either; I care about how you apparently don't have your own opinion just using the opinions of others for cover.

[4nxi3ty]

ISO 1: Accepts fish's explanation, but leaves the vote. Could he have forgotten to unvote? Or maybe he saw nothing to vote on?

there really wasn't much to vote on considering it we were only on the first page of D1.

ISO 2: Votes Last in a vote-only post.

is there scum motivation in this post? objectively, I find it very hard to see any indication of either alignment in iso2. Also, I did expand on my ls vote in a later post:

yep, your points against SA are a bit of an overstatement in my eyes. Had similar feelings about your case against rhinox though I think it comes from a more confirmationbias shootfirst playstyle than a scum mindest.

ISO 3: Votes Malee for being "jumpy". Looks like a wagon hop to me. Honestly, I see scum voting town here. Maybe I'm wrong on Malee. Also, what was the Last vote all about?

At that stage in the game seeing someone with a jumpy(or paranoid) vibe is as good to go off of as anything else. A wagonhop from fishy to malee? eh your a little off base there. If I think someone is scummy the amount votes on that person won't deter from joining a wagon in most circumstances.

ISO 7: Answers "what do you think of DDD" with a wishy washy maybe scum maybe town answer. I don't think he's done anything to try to clarify the read either. What really gets me is the use of an exclamation point in "I could easily see scum!" and then where I expect an explanation and maybe mini-case, it starts to turn into maybe he's town, let's wait and see.

I don't think being unsure about someone's alignment at the very early stages in the game is wish-washy.

your reading this part wrong:

I could easily see scum!Danny playing in a way not to stand out

it is a different way of saying scumDDD or 'DDD's-scumplay'

ISO 8: This is a pretty bad answer to Rhinox's question about whether Malee's actions make sense as scum.

don't really get how thats a bad answer. rhinox asked if scum-malee would push a case on nacho voting vincent? malee never really made a case(it was just a few post barely out of rvs) and her vote was based on nacho skimming(the push was never based on the voting). the question itself was flawed.

ISO 9: Another pot-shot like the one on DDD, this time at Rhinox. Says he is reactive rather than proactive. It's a negative, maybe scum, kind of point to make, but nothing to pursue. It seems like he's leaving these trails that he can point back to and say "see, they gave me bad vibes here".

meh I don't mind using pot-shots for pressure. Me leaving trails would only be valid if rhinox flipped scum and I went "see, I knew he was scum give me towncred", neither of those things have happened though.

ISO 11: Unvotes Malee for replacement. If 4n was wagon-hopping scum, this is a good move because for whatever reason nobody ever lynches someone who replaces out while being wagoned. Shows a strong preference for Alicescum rather than Bikescum. If my reads on the two are correct, this makes sense for 4nScum because Bike would be his scumbuddy.

it is also a good move for town since a replacement can take some time and a replacement might shed new light on a slot. bike hasn't flipped so basing my lynch on being scumbuddies with him makes for weak scumhunting.

[kortul]

Friday 13 was tough. Will clear my head on weekend from all the work, finish the research in another game and reassess my reads. I did a quick skimming of today posts, and have two quick questions.

Rhinox, can you give your thoughts behind the scumread on DDD, if you will find some time or after the weekend? Though, if you already did it on day 1, i will see that during rereading.

DDD, your Macro case is based on a tell. Can you explain the

logic

behind it, and why you believe it is reliable. Can you link to some successful examples of Amished-tell? If you expect us to consider the case, we have to understand why it works.

[Macrophage]

There are only three people I don't have some sort of townread on: DDD, Voided, Rhinox, but I'm pretty sure they can't all be scum together. DDD and Voided are probably the stronger two scumreads and I'll explain why a bit later.

@Rhinox How do you have a strong scumread on Debonair?

@Sleepless I remember thinking your case was ok, but I really see 4n as town here.

[Voidedmafia]

First I'm scum, then I'm town, then I'm scum again. I'm all for changing reads, but really, man? Your read on me has been changing faster than a smoker goes through cigarettes, almost (probably not the best analogy/simile, but w/e), and it's getting rediculous.

Practically the only thing I agree with you on is that 4n is town.

[Nachomamma8]

</3

[Voidedmafia]

</3

If that's directed at me: Tough.

If not: who're you heartbroken over?

[Voidedmafia]

EBWOP:... Derp.

[DCLXVI]

thoughts on the new day...


First, blahh....I screwed up on my LS read. My apologies LS.

Really don't like macro's switch on his voided read, is it just me or does it seem like macro swapped from calling voided scum to town late in day 1 simply to try and get voided off of his wagon?

I don't like the way DDD was dismissive of Rhinox post.

I'm glad that Rhinox got the extra vote, as far as reads go he is the person I think is most likely to be town.

I'm going to do a re-read sometime tomorrow, yeah for weekends without homework.

[Alicewondering]

DDD, I notice that a lot of the post references are in the first 200 posts. What do you think of the middle of the game? I think you're just trying to look helpful now, but got lazy in the middle of rereading the thread.

I'm going to hold off on a Macro vote at least for today.

VOTE: DDD

[Alicewondering]

@Sleepless Assassin

Why is DCL scum? I actually think scum would be very unlikely to push a lynch on a townie so hard.

Aww bye Nacho ):

[Fishythefish]

I'm not up for lynching Macro. DDD seems an ok choice, but no more than that. I have bad feelings about DCL and Alice I can't really pin down. I owe this game a serious chunk of time, and I'm not sure when that's going to happen. Sorry.

[Macrophage]

Really don't like macro's switch on his voided read, is it just me or does it seem like macro swapped from calling voided scum to town late in day 1 simply to try and get voided off of his wagon?

Reread and tell me how likely you think this is.

I'll wait for Rhinox to post before saying why I think Debonair is scum, but regarding Voided...

Mostly it's his continued scumread on me. He says stuff like he's going to refresh himself on my posts, but he's not considering my alignment and is using almost everything I do or say against me.

[Rhinox]

Looks like VCA (junk) combined with facile appeals to authority in dead townies (logical fallacy). Way to crystalize your spot near the top of my list, Rhinox.

I don't really care where I am on your list or how many buzzwords you can fit into a single sentence

Hey, I don't care about those things either; I care about how you apparently don't have your own opinion just using the opinions of others for cover.

Yeah thats pretty much complete bullshit

@guys asking me about DDD, i said suff about him throughout D1, ask questions, DDD ignored me mostlyy except when it was convenient for him to through out an accusation. I'll organize my thoughts when I'm back to a comp, but DDD saying i dont have my own oppinions is blantant rhettoric bullshit.

[Voidedmafia]

Really don't like macro's switch on his voided read, is it just me or does it seem like macro swapped from calling voided scum to town late in day 1 simply to try and get voided off of his wagon?

Reread and tell me how likely you think this is.

I'll wait for Rhinox to post before saying why I think Debonair is scum, but regarding Voided...

Mostly it's his continued scumread on me. He says stuff like he's going to refresh himself on my posts, but he's not considering my alignment and is using almost everything I do or say against me.

I don't know you're alignment exactly. Yes, you claimed VT, but that doesn't mean anything until you flipped.

Also, you were still acting scummy as hell yesterday, so why shouldn't I press that? Besides, it's pretty likely:

You had me as scum when you came in but weren't exactly under pressure yourself (your slot's past actions aside). When you got ran up to L-1 and asked to claim, I'm MAGICALLY a townread. And now that you're safe (with one of our DVs actively refusing to endorse your lynch at this time), you're back to a scumread on me.

Read that and tell me that's not oppurtunistic as hell.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I have to say some of the “points” against me are pretty absurd. I don’t have enough town reads? I didn’t talk about the middle of the day enough? Sorry, I put down what stuck out to me one way or another when I re-read the game. I’m not going to arbitrarily make up town reads or talk about things I don’t think are important.

~

DDD, your Macro case is based on a tell. Can you explain the

logic

behind it, and why you believe it is reliable. Can you link to some successful examples of Amished-tell? If you expect us to consider the case, we have to understand why it works.

It’s a straight damage control move; attempting to make a player’s slot seem more town by excusing their prior play due to incompetence. Town’s first instincts upon replacing in are “who are scum?”; scum’s first instinct is “protect myself”.

[Macrophage]

Vote: Debonair

Apart from not being very town, it's his continued use of the Amished tell to justify my lynch and lack of attempt to get a better read of me that making me feel scum here. I'll just let you know though, if a Voided wagon pops up, I'd totally consider joining it. I'm doubting that they're both scum and I'd maybe feel a little better voting Voided, but it really isn't much.

@Debonair What's your experience with the amished tell?

@Voided Why the misrep?

[Macrophage]

Also, what do people think of Rhinox's reasoning for voting Debonair?

[4nxi3ty]

Hey, I don't care about those things either; I care about how you apparently don't have your own opinion just using the opinions of others for cover.

can you go into detail about which opinions rhinox is using for cover?

I have to say some of the “points” against me are pretty absurd. I don’t have enough town reads? I didn’t talk about the middle of the day enough? Sorry, I put down what stuck out to me one way or another when I re-read the game. I’m not going to arbitrarily make up town reads or talk about things I don’t think are important.

when anybody goes missing for a chunk of time it is going to raise suspicions, I don't think that is absurd. To me it wasn't about not having enough townreads. It was about only saying negative things,no positives, about 8 different people. In theory, you are simultaneously moving all 8 closer to being lynched; and since we know it is impossible for all 8 to be scum, that bothers me.

Also, what do people think of Rhinox's reasoning for voting Debonair?

what do

you

about rhinox's reasoning... you are on the same wagon as him?