Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Debonair Danny DiPietro (4) - rhinox, Alicewondering, Macrophage
Macrophage (3) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro
4nxi3ty (1) - Sleepless Assassin

Not Voting (5) - 4nxi3ty, DCLXVI, kortul, fishythefish

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is May 3rd, 6PM PST

[Alicewondering]

I'm not up for lynching Macro. DDD seems an ok choice, but no more than that. I have bad feelings about DCL and Alice I can't really pin down. I owe this game a serious chunk of time, and I'm not sure when that's going to happen. Sorry.

Could you be more specific about bad feelings on DCL?

In regards to Macro flipflopping on Voided, I don't think it's that unusual for someone just replacing into the game (especially someone under a lot of pressure) to change reads quickly. It would have been scummier to keep a scumread that he didn't believe in.

[Sleepless Assassin]

is there scum motivation in this post?

Not every post that scum makes has scum motivation. I was simply noting the vote to see where it went. Remember, it was an ISO read so everything that stood out was mentioned. As for my conclusion on the Last vote, I can't say I really came up with one in that specific ISO, hence the question about it. You immediately hopped on to Malee after it.

The thing that gets me about Last is the fact that he was one of my strongest town reads. With him being dead, I have no problem sharing this. He was at the top of my will until he started being wagoned. I never understood the case against him. I have only seen one game where a Day 1 mislynch didn't include scum and if I'm right about you being scum, this stands out as evidence that one or more of your buddies were on the lynch with you:

it is too early for wagon analysis, you need at least one scumflip.

Of course, if you are town, the above quote means nothing.

At that stage in the game seeing someone with a jumpy(or paranoid) vibe is as good to go off of as anything else. A wagonhop from fishy to malee? eh your a little off base there. If I think someone is scummy the amount votes on that person won't deter from joining a wagon in most circumstances.

This may be true, but I strongly believe scum are more prone to bandwagoning even if it's not a generally accepted tell anymore.

I don't think being unsure about someone's alignment at the very early stages in the game is wish-washy.

it is a different way of saying scumDDD or 'DDD's-scumplay'

Actually, I didn't say you were unsure and neither did you. And if you had a scum read, why didn't it come up until the question about him. And "could easily see" doesn't really seem the same as "scumDDD" to me. Your view on DDD looks like someone who was asked about his scumbuddy and gave an "OMG maybe he's scum. let's watch out for him" kind of answer. Honestly though, when I go back to your ISO and ctrl+f "DDD" (which I just did to see if it strengthened this point), your interactions don't look like scum on scum interactions.

meh I don't mind using pot-shots for pressure. Me leaving trails would only be valid if rhinox flipped scum and I went "see, I knew he was scum give me towncred", neither of those things have happened though.

That's not my issue with the pot-shots. It's more that if... let me give an example. Let's say we get near deadline and we only have one major wagon and the guy claims a power role and we all go "oh shit, that makes sense. Who the fuck do we lynch now?" Well, obviously we end up with a rushed wagon and, for sake of example, assume we get the lynch off. Now this random "how the fuck did they get lynched" person flips town. Next day, everyone is flipping out and saying scum had to have pushed the lynch through. If you hopped the wagon and people didn't like your vote, you can say "nooo, see? I called them scum back there". And don't say "OMG that like never happens!" because it's one of many examples.

Granted, pot shots like that are only a big deal if you do it to most of the players in the game and not just a couple, but that's why I pointed out a later one and not the first. I saw a trend.

it is also a good move for town since a replacement can take some time and a replacement might shed new light on a slot. bike hasn't flipped so basing my lynch on being scumbuddies with him makes for weak scumhunting.

I tend to disagree with most people when it comes to replacements. I just don't like it when someone's read changes entirely on a replaced player. They have the exact same Role PM, so I don't see how you can have a scum read on one and a town read on the other. This is probably a theory argument that isn't completely relevant here though.

As for the bike connection, I'm not basing the vote on that. I'm just noting it to try and understand some connections later on. I tend to leave myself some things to look back on, maybe because I don't take notes for games and that's just my version of it. Either way, it's not really important unless you are trying to argue that "no, bike isn't my scumbuddy. X and Y are!", in which case, feel free.

Basically, my case isn't really one major thing that stands out. It's just the large number of small things which is probably what lead to my vibe with nothing standing out before I ISO'd.

~Quote tag cleaned up

[Sleepless Assassin]

Mod, is there any way you can fix that tag for me please? Should have previewed...

Also, responding to everything else now. I'm not ignoring the rest, just felt I shouldn't mix other things in with that post.

[Sleepless Assassin]

@Sleepless Assassin

Why is DCL scum? I actually think scum would be very unlikely to push a lynch on a townie so hard.

Uhhhhh.

I'm not sure how many games you've played, but almost ALL of the ones I've been in have had a scum push a mislynch pretty hard.

But to answer your question:

Next up is funky. He seems to be under the radar, yet called scum a lot. It also looks like a wagon could be brewing on him. I want to make sure I'm satisfied with an opinion on him.
ISO 0,1,2: Irrelevant. I don't think he was playing the game up to this point.
ISO 4: These are the "reads" I mentioned having a problem with before. Look at them. According to bike, Vince is "Overly town", "[probably] vanilla town", and "at least for now". So he sees play that looks very town, decides to openly guess that he isn't a power role, and throw in the disclaimer at the end that it could change. Read on 4n is "no information". hip "has contributed" but bike "can't get a read". So he has three town reads (Last, Rhinox, and Kort). And Kort is somehow "proven town". The way I see these reads is he won't commit to reads on some players (why even list them? Why not list other players who may or may not be null?) and even his reads have no real reasons. The closest to reasoning he gets is on Last, because "scum wouldn't post like that". He calls Nacho scum and "can't see any other possibility, yet in....
ISO 5: he says Nacho provided a "decent explanation". So we're back to no scum reads and three unexplained town reads.
Overall: Really not liking Bike.

______________________________________________

It’s a straight damage control move; attempting to make a player’s slot seem more town by excusing their prior play due to incompetence. Town’s first instincts upon replacing in are “who are scum?”; scum’s first instinct is “protect myself”.

I feel like anyone with a wagon on them is going to want to protect themself.

[Voidedmafia]

SA" The point of the tell isn't that you're defending yourself, the point is that you're going out of your way to say that your predecessors were bad, not just trying to defend yourself.

Macro: How is it a misrep? That's pretty much EXACTLY what happened (except the beginning part, but I was ignoring that you were near L-1 because of your predecessors).

[Macrophage]

@4nxi3ty: I don't like it, but I want to see what other people think before elaborating. What do you think?

@Mod

I think Alice is voting Debonair

@Voided: You magically being a townread and when I was and when I wasn't under pressure.

I don't really know how well the amished tell has been used before, but it seems fairly obvious to me that if you think your predecessors are bad when you read through, you're quite likely to say it.

~Vote Count fixed

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, what else can you say to defend yourself in your first post of the game?

[4nxi3ty]

throwing this idea out there to see what richochets.

scumteam-

fishy

,

alice

,

ddd

<.< O.o

macro

-.- ddd :/

[Voidedmafia]

Void, what else can you say to defend yourself in your first post of the game?

Uh, not go out of your way to say, "Yeah, the guy before me was scum?" I'm not saying don't do it period, but don't be so...blatant about it, for lack of a better way to say it.

Macro: I was a townread when you were at L-1 and were on the verge of being the lynch. When you were either not threatened with a hammer (or for today, weren't under suspicion), I was a scumread. What's not hard to understand here?

[Macrophage]

@4n: I think Fishy's town, so I'd take him off. Alice maybe, but I'm not really feeling it. If I was to guess, I'd probably say something like:

Two of Debonair/Voided/Rhinox

And then I'm not sure, could be any of Alice/DCL/hiplop, but they do seem town to me.

@Voided: Er, I was at L-1 when I called you scum too... I did think at the time that people would unvote me and move onto someone else, but I don't think I would have felt that way as scum, and it became quite clear that wasn't going to happen quite a while before I said I thought you were town. And really, I don't know how having you, hiplop and Debonair refusing to believe I'm town is considered safe. (Actually note: Voided scum makes hiplop-scum more likely) But regardless of this, do you really think that I as scum would think expressing a townread on you would make you unvote me? My main problem though is you saying I magically got a townread on you.

[Voidedmafia]

Did you not see the post I made right after you went to claiming VT? THREE SEPARATE POSTS had you declaring an intent to want me dead, and then VWIP! townread!

Perhaps magically is a bit too strong of a word, but the reasoning used was fairly poor as an excuse.

[Macrophage]

Did you not see the post I made right after you went to claiming VT? THREE SEPARATE POSTS had you declaring an intent to want me dead, and then VWIP! townread!

My point is that I was under pressure long before that despite what you say. This read change point feels so much like scum trying to keep me as a likely lynch, as after thinking about it, I'm not sure how it could be considered scummy. Hmm, can people please answer these questions:

What do you think of my read change on Voided? Do you think you could see it as scummy?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

It’s a straight damage control move; attempting to make a player’s slot seem more town by excusing their prior play due to incompetence. Town’s first instincts upon replacing in are “who are scum?”; scum’s first instinct is “protect myself”.

I feel like anyone with a wagon on them is going to want to protect themself.

Sure, but we’re talking about first instincts; I get that town PM as a replacement and my first instinct is always, “who is scum”? I don’t even bother reading the person I’m replacing beyond what I absorb from reading the entire thread because I know they’re town and nothing I can do can change what they’ve already done on my behalf.

[Rhinox]

Ok, so a couple things about DDD I didn't like from D1:

firstly, I was not a fan of how he rode his vote on nacho for nacho being on cruise control. I think DDD himself was on cruise control. Yeah, I get the point that cruise control is not generally scummy for everyone but due to nacho's supposed meta it is for him. But posts like this one rub me the wrong way:

Hey guys Nacho is still totally doing nothing useful; maybe he'd start doing something useful or at very least we'd lynch scum if ya'll voted him as well!!!

Because I don't particularly see that DDD was being any more useful than Nacho was. I mean, just in total posts, nacho had 54 D1 posts to DDD's 27 - twice as many. Sure quantity != quality, what I'm trying to say is that nacho wasn't being useless, and I felt DDD was, and his push on nacho was hypocritical and lazy.

secondly, I don't like how he exaggerated points against me and ignored questions I asked. For Example, for the 3rd time.

also, things like:

DDD, you have left your vote on nacho for being on cruise control yet you haven't really pressured any of his recent posts or actions...?

Hey guys Nacho is still totally doing nothing useful; maybe he'd start doing something useful or at very least we'd lynch scum if ya'll voted him as well!!!

This post is starting to give me the impression you're a lyncher with nacho as a target. You haven't done anything the whole game except ride this minor "nacho is on cruise control" point, but I see you as being as equally on cruise control.

You still haven't expanded on the vague accusations you made towards me that I asked you about here

How did I miss that he accused me of being a lyncher in #257?

DDD cherry picks the 3rd most important thing I said to him in that post, the obviously not-serious lyncher accusation. I was obviously trying to make a point that DDD's push on nacho was weak and lazy, and it didn't seem natural for DDD to be so focused on just Nacho for something so minor.

So DDD can go find this post and say I'm scum for calling him a lyncher, but he never addresses the point I was actually making about his push on nacho being bad, nor does he bother answering the questions I asked. Its like he's just trying to paint things I say in the scummiest possible way.

Couple other minor things raised my eyebrows in D1 but probably not important enough to list. Even the above, I mean I know its not real conclusive if it was I'd have voted him yesterday. What really pushed it over the edge for me was #648 - DDD calling basically everyone scummy, except for voided. I mean he says his list is scum to town, but that at the end he's all everyone inbetween me and voided is interchangeable.


So thats why I voted DDD, and I don't much care for all his rhetoric after my vote either.

Its clear today my top 2 suspects would be macro or DDD. Thats where I was at at the end of the day yesterday. I had macro over DDD but a couple of confirmed townies believing macro to be town bumps DDD ahead of macro. DDD wants to call that a logical fallacy - its not like I'm saying "welp macro is town because dead townies say so", just that I can take that into consideration and trust it a little more. I don't see a problem with that. There's always MD threads about how no one listens to dead townies and scum know that and use it to their advantage. So yeah, I'm going to use nacho and LS reads as another data point. Not THE data point, but a datapoint nonetheless. And as for the VCA, when I said at the end "if DD is not scum then all the above is thrown out", its clear the implication is "iff DDD is scum, then this", and not "this, ergo DDD is scum."


======================================================================

I have bad feelings about DCL and Alice I can't really pin down.

eyebrows raised - specifically because you mentioned alice. What happened between #378 and now that caused you to go from "we're not lynching alice her posting feels fairly convincing" to "bad feelings you can't pin down"?

[Fishythefish]

On my bad feelings: that was very quickly posted. Giving it a smidgeon more time, I don't like the way Alice went under the radar the moment the wagon on her dropped off. She really just went along with things for the rest of the day. My feelings on DCL are even more wishy-washy. In his argument with LS, I just feel DCL is arguing to prove his points are justified, rather than to figure out LS's alignment.

RL situation has clarified, but not really improved. I'm sorry, but I'm probably going to be low on time and making short, poorly thought through posts for the next week. After that, things will be much better.

[kortul]

I finished my research in the other game yesterday night, so will post my thoughts this evening (hopefully), or tomorrow morning.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Points labeled to match to Rhinox’s generally

1) Rhinox completely ignores meta context in this point; I was clearly wrong but absolutely no one disagreed with my assessment of Nacho being on cruise control and in my experience (Scummies Winvitational) that was a significant red flag. Conversely, you’ll note several people in this game have noted how my play is not inconsistent with my town play. It’s easy to cry “hypocrisy” but it doesn’t actually make a good argument.

2) Yes, I will sometimes ignore things if I don’t think they’re worth my time; I had no interest in addressing points about Nacho because all I could do was restate the facts as I saw them because when nothing changes there’s nothing new to present. As regards to the other question, basically I hate every post of yours from the first pander to LS (#29) to where you restate it again (#51) insisting his question was a good point when it so very clearly wasn’t. And I brought up the lyncher thing because it was so very clearly bizarre upon re-read; it’s like suggesting someone is a jester, completely out of left field.

3) And he just restates the same nonsense that basically amounts to me not having good enough town reads being a scumtell and using the words of dead townies to bolster his case which are both junk.

Look if you want me lynched don’t push it off on the opinion of dead players; own it, and if I do get lynched or killed andwhen I flip green then you can’t hide from this nonsense.

[Voidedmafia]

Did you not see the post I made right after you went to claiming VT? THREE SEPARATE POSTS had you declaring an intent to want me dead, and then VWIP! townread!

My point is that I was under pressure long before that despite what you say. This read change point feels so much like scum trying to keep me as a likely lynch, as after thinking about it, I'm not sure how it could be considered scummy. Hmm, can people please answer these questions:

What do you think of my read change on Voided? Do you think you could see it as scummy?

There's pressure, and then there's

pressure

. When I was a scumread, you were under pressure (or under very little as of today). When I was a townread, you were under

pressure

. And I hope I don't need to tell you what differentiates the emphasis.

Also, if that second sentence is supposed to be about me, then All I have is this: O____O.

[Rhinox]

Points labeled to match DDD

1) I did not ignore that you had meta and to paint it as such is missing the point. I thought you were being useless while you were lazily parking your vote on nacho, and I think your uselessness was scummy. And I didn't even feel nacho was being useless anyways. I don't have a good meta on you, but I read through both examples posted by someone earlier on and I don't think your play early on in D1 matches either of the games linked. So I threw out the meta and made up my own mind. Why is it that I'm supposed to accept the meta reasoning of others (who I don't know the alignment of by the way) using it to supposedly clear you or nullify the points against you, but using the beliefs of dead players I know are town is junk?

2) No comment not worth my time.

>.>

No I really can't be that snarky. If someone's ignoring my questions or not acknowledging that I just said something, I'm going to assume its because you don't want attention drawn to it and you're trying to sweep it under a rug. Especially when comments are cherry picked out later on from a post that was ignored, like that lyncher comment. So I'm gonna play devil's advocate - suggesting someone is a lyncher or jester is out of left field. OK. Left field is scummy? Why is this something scum would do?

(and what was odd was that you were so concerned with nacho and only nacho at the time, it was as if you had him as a lyncher target. It seemed unnatural for you to be so focused on nacho. That is what I was trynig to say with the lyncher comment. I was hoping the comment would actually get a response out of you then, not the next day to be used as case filler).

3) Its not about how many town reads or scum reads you have, its that you went out looking to find something scummy to say about everyone, except for voided aparently. (even then, you found something negative to say.). I think its a position scum would like to take. For one, it sets you up to be able to vote just about anyone. Its a good way to hide your scum partners in the list of players that are all interchangeable. Nobody can question why you voted A instead of B, because you can just say well they're interchangeable scum reads.

As for taking into consideration the reads of dead townies, that junk because...? Like I said already, its not like I'm taking their opinions as truths, just taking them into consideration, as I would any living player. As I did when 3 or 4 people were telling me that my case on hiplop was weak. Only now I know the opinion was coming from confirmed town, so it holds a little more weight than coming from a living player I don't know the alignment of. As you're telling me to do when you point how people who say your play is not inconsistent with your town play. Just because a player is dead, doesn't make their opinion junk, and it doesn't make their opinion truth either. Its still just a valid opinion to be considered. However I think scum would love to call the opinion of dead townies junk because scum love to kill off threats and generally no one gives another thought to the opinion the townie had before they were killed.

And as for your underlined comment. Don't you worry, I put on my big boy underoo's this morning and concluded you were scum all by myself. I don't recall saying that because any dead player thought you were scum, I think your scum. What I did was reconsider how I felt about macro (just like when I reconsidered how I felt about hiplop), leaving my very own suspicions of you. Don't you worry, I'll be sure to take ALL the credit when you flip scum

[LlamaFluff]

hiplop prodded

[Macrophage]

It’s a straight damage control move; attempting to make a player’s slot seem more town by excusing their prior play due to incompetence. Town’s first instincts upon replacing in are “who are scum?”; scum’s first instinct is “protect myself”.

I feel like anyone with a wagon on them is going to want to protect themself.

Sure, but we’re talking about first instincts; I get that town PM as a replacement and my first instinct is always, “who is scum”? I don’t even bother reading the person I’m replacing beyond what I absorb from reading the entire thread because I know they’re town and nothing I can do can change what they’ve already done on my behalf.

@Debonair: But what about if you replace in, read the game, and a day later everyone says "Yeah, macro's posting is fine, but he's scum because of his predecessors, so LYYYYNCH!!!!"? When you know someone is town, you stop them from getting lynched.

@Rhinox: Why did you not meta Debonair yourself?

[kortul]

With last will mechanics in mind from now on i will list my town reads in random order, not really telling how strong the top ones are.

Rhinox and Fishythefish - leaning town. There was a moment i began to question my read on Fishy, but his answer was ok.

Sleepless Assassin - slightly leaning town. Overall impression. He is consistent, and digging in his own direction.

hiplop - slightly leaning town. He still feels natural, his day 2 vote is consistent, and he wasn't afread to hammer LS. Not much of a presence though for a second half of the game.

Voidedmafia - slightly leaning town. I didn't like Vincent, so this read change is mostly based on his active and consistent stance on Macro. He isn't just sitting there, he is doing something.

4nxi3ty - middle ground. I didn't agree with his logic and thoughts day 1, but i actually like his input on day 2, find the questions he is asking and comments good and relevant, though i don't understand his latest "idea throwing".

DCLXVI - slightly leaning scum. I was suspicious of funky, and have mixed feelings on DCL. He seems to be active, consistent and logical, which i like, though was focused almost only on LS and i really didn't get some of his conclusions from VCA. Also, i do not agree with his view that "wagons on Theo and Macro were based mostly off of the wagon on Malee" - theo is equally (if not more) tainted the slot.

Alice - leaning scum. I still don't like her behaviour during day 1, unvote (and the explanation) after the VT claim from Macro. But i am not as convinced as on day 1 - if she indeed is working on building townreads, some of her actions make sense, and she started Day 2 with a really good question to DDD.

Macrophage - leaning scum. Slot is scummy, and the explanations on both read changes on Voided are borderline, taking into account the moments they were done.

DDD - leaning scum. My impression from the previous day is only getting worse. He become more active today, but most of this activity is criticizing, he is sitting on Macro based on Amished tell from theo, and his reads look like inverted version from funky (ie almost everyone is scummy for him).

VOTE: Macrophage

Macro

, what you don't like about Rhinox reasoning for voting DDD? Why not argue those points, to either understand them and improve your read on both Rhinox and DDD, or to prove they are bad?

I have some other questions/comments, will make a separate post.

[kortul]

Vote 4n

Not a lot has changed since Day 1. Lastlynch was as terrible as it was before it happened. Macrolynch is almost as bad. DDD, DCL, and 4n are still the scums.

SA

, any particular reason to concentrate only on 4nxi3ty? I can see you working to improve your read, but do you have questions for your other scumreads?

I'm going to hold off on a Macro vote at least for today.

Alice

, what do you mean by hold off? From your posts i got an impression that you finally believed the VT claim.

@

4nxi3ty

- what are your thoughts behind the idea?

Macro wagon was in much better shape yesterday, so to keep it rolling today just sitting there isn't enough.

hiplop, DDD

, if it isn't just a parking place for you, question him, question your other suspects.

@

DDD

- is Amished tell on theo the only reason for your vote on Macro?

@

DCLXVI

- so what are your thoughts and suspects after the re-read?

[Macrophage]

@Kortul: No, please don't vote me. I know my predecessors are going to be a big reason why you're voting me, but just trust me when I say I'm town. I don't understand your problem with my Voided read changes though. I think I'd have better reasoning if anything as scum. Also, what is your theory regarding the scum motivation behind the change?

Oh yeah I forgot about that. I thought that avoiding questions was a bad reason to think Debonair was scum.