Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[hiplop]

Honestly, I'm not even sure what to say - I've said my thing a bunch of times - ill be legitimately shocked if macro flips town

[DCLXVI]

Sorry about not responding to this earlier, but yeah I'll go through this paragraph by paragraph.

Since the beginning of the day, it's seemed a lot like he wants to suspect me, but has been too hesitant to get on my wagon.

He hasn't really mentioned anyone else as possible scum, which I don't really know how to explain, but I think town would consider other people as scum while making up their mind about one person.

The thing that has made me think DCL scummy is his vote on me in 748.

Three reasons I didn't vote you quickly.

1. I didn't want a quicklynch day 2, you wagon started off very fast which is one reason I did not join.
2. I wasn't as sure of my reads since being wrong on LS
3. I wasn't as sure you were scum, I wanted to see some more from you before I made my decision

Yes, I suppose I am a little guilty of tunneling right now however I do have some other suspects just haven't called them out yet, I'm working on finishing up reads in the next 1-2 hours for this game. Meant to do it earlier and put it off.

This is the definition of OMGUS.

First->

The reasons he presents are interesting. As expected, there is the voided read change.

The second point is hard for me to figure out. Possibly scum trying look convinced that I'm scum? It's really unnatural considering the reasons for his change in opinion of me from 746, which I'll get to now.

As expected? Not sure what that is trying to imply

The second point is simply me admitting that I was wrong in interpreting you pr to vt roleclaim switch as a sign that of you being town. Again not sure why this is unnatural

There's the *not liking me calling him town*. Firstly, this is exaggerated because I just said something he said was townish. I can't see myself having any problem with someone saying that to me. Secondly, he claims that his response was not actually townish or scummy. I think this strongly indicates scum, because it's trying too hard to justify his reason for voting me, but also because if I'm town, and someone says something I said was town, I would naturally believe that what I said was indicative of town. I could see scum thinking that they didn't do anything townish in a post though. Thirdly, if he believes that I had him as a townread, how does he think he knows my reasoning for calling him town? which I didn't even do! And he's not even asking why I found it townish, which I would expect before going on about how my reasoning is terrible.

This was already addressed in my post 760. Which I don't believe macro has yet responded to.

The fourth point is really bad and I can easily see scum putting it there just to justify their vote better.

Again, excellent argumentation by macro, "the fourth point is really bad" saying something is bad does not equal showing why it is bad.

So, back to what I was saying earlier. I don't see how these two poorly thought out additional reasons can lead him to go from making his mind up about me to being convinced I'm scum, especially considering his cautiousness by not voting me. It doesn't make any sense from town, but it does fit together for DCL-scum being concerned about jumping on my wagon and wanting to have sufficient unique reasoning to support it. Even the vote post itself leads me to believe this.

Well, first off as I've shown my third point was actually well thought out, and all you did was call my fourth point bad without explaining what was bad. So I to claim that I changed my read on you based on two poorly thought out additional reasons is just rhetoric.


tl;dr

Basically, macros's "case" against me is pure OMGUS fluff aimed at drawing attention away from his wagon and onto to one of his accusers.

There are a lot of claims made in his case that aren't backed up, macro calls parts of my case unatural and another part of it bad and neither time does he try to back up those claims. There is a lot of rhetoric, and little logical analysis and proof behind his attack on me.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Macrophage (5) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro, kortul, DCLXVI
Debonair Danny DiPietro (3) - rhinox, Alicewondering
DCLXVI (1) - Macrophage
4nxi3ty (1) - Sleepless Assassin

Not Voting (3) - 4nxi3ty, fishythefish

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is May 3rd, 6PM PST

Alicewondering is V/LA through 4/22
Fishythefish is V/LA through 4/43

[Sleepless Assassin]

The last part is a real gem.

you call 4n town for not providing a lot of content,

I am deeply offended by this comment.

SA can you take the time to pressure other people as well? that way you don't squander all of D2 pushing a scumread that is town.

The content thing was actually macro's pooint, not mine.

And most of my reads from earlier still stand. Assuming there isn't a random push towards you, I'll probably vote DDD near deadline.

Looking at the vote count, it's weird that fish is V/LA til the 43rd.

[Voidedmafia]

This just in, April was suddenly granted 13 extra days!

[hiplop]

hes never coming back, is he?

[Voidedmafia]

hes never coming back, is he?

nnnnnnnnnnnnnnope.

He will be missed...

[Alicewondering]

Yes, I got my scum read on the slot when Bike was still in the game. As far as DCL, his play looks pretty solid. Obviously, the two share a Role PM though.

o___o, so despite other evidence, you're sticking with your scumread on a lurker?

Sure looked like some form of sucking up to me, though.

I would suck up if I were about to be lynched too.

Macro's giant wall looks genuinely town-motivated.

@Hiplop

, why do you think that post comes from scum?

DDD's Post 764 brings up a good point. I think I might be shifting DDD towards a leaning townread.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sleepless Assassin

I don't feel good about a DDD vote today. I do like an SA vote though. I'll tell you why when I'm less sleepy.

[Alicewondering]

But we can start with Post 740. It doesn't seem like a genuine read. It seems like a read he's decided on, then chosen to justify poorly later on.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Alice, lurking wasn't one of my points against Bike. Also, what evidence?

[Macrophage]

@DCL: Re-760-> I'm pretty sure I've expressed my thoughts on these points somewhere. First, you're exaggerating my comment that your response was townish and desperately using it as ammunition against me. Second, I don't get why you think I'd call you town in an attempt to get you to unvote me after this kerfuffle with Voided.

I don't feel like arguing with DCL's post against me, but I'm really thinking he's scum. If people are ignoring me because they think DCL is town/my points are bad, please say why.

Macro, to answer your first question, I feel I've layed out my case. He responded and I responded back. No one else seems interested except for the fact that you have a town read on him. I'm leaving my vote there to basically say "I think he is scum and I'm not letting it go".

And your other question...honestly, your town case looks more like a case against him except that "scum would never be so obvious". Your first point is the same point I made with the same reasoning except you finish yours with "scum would provide reasoning". Really? How often are people voted for not providing enough reasoning? Next is that he went against your lynch. Well, it looked (or looks) inevidible that you will be lynched at some point. If I was scum and you were town, id want to distance myself from the mislynch. If you are scum, this point (and this discussion for that matter) is null.

The last part is a real gem.

you call 4n town for not providing a lot of content, which scum would apparently never ever do because they'd get attacked. So he MUST be town, right? WRONG

.

Listen. Scum do scummy things. Scumtells are, believe it or not, NOT town tells.

Do you think 4nx will be lynched today?

But that's right. First, they're horrible scumtells, and second, scum would feel uncomfortable doing them because they'd think it likely they'd get attacked because of it. Scum wouldn't do this to try and look town either, and your response is the reason why.

I have considered the distancing possibility and I would have agreed with you in the past, but in my experience, people strongly saying I'm town when I'm suspected have been town. Distancing is what I think DCL/funky were both doing.

It's easy for scum to provide content, but "fluff" posts and lack of content are always used as scumtells.

[kortul]

@

Macro

- thank you for the explanation. I can't say that your thoughts on why 4nxi3ty is town helped me to read him much better, but there was one point that i missed earlier. At the same time i came to conclusion that i was wrong assuming that i can reliably understand your logic.

@

hiplop

, you are becoming more active, it seems - what are your thoughts on other players?

@

DCLXVI

, can you answer my question in post 762?

@

Alice

- i also suspected funky, and not because of lurking. What "other evidence" do you mean? Also, can you tell your current reads, and why do you like an SA vote?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, then why wouldn't he claim a less common power role or something? Oh and by the way, unorthodox play also has a tendency to find the ropes. The more you elaborate on why he is scum, the stronger a town case I see.

@Debonair & Voided: Claiming VT is what VT's generally do too, in case you forgot that... And voided, the read changes aren't scummy because I'm town- more reasonable than any explanations for me being scummy.

Sure I’ll accept that; but what does that make you guy who claimed non-VT and then revised it to a VT claim?

I’ve already trapped him with his own words; he knows what a vanilla townie SHOULD have done and yet he has no explanation for what he did other than, "uh, but I'm vanilla". Busted.

[Rhinox]

/proddodge

Will try to get caught back up but I feel lost in this game now.

[4nxi3ty]

The content thing was actually macro's pooint, not mine.

yeh I see that now. I exaggerated a bit as well. I don't mind be called scum when I post questionable content, I do get a bit flustered when I see someone say I haven't posted content after I have invested considerable time into a game.

---

I keep going back n' forth about macro. sometime I see him as town pressuring a lot of people yet than I keep going back to D1 and agreeing that all he did was placate and wifom to avoid getting lynched.

I'll probably join his lynch just cause my reads of fishy, alice, and ddd aren't that great.

[hiplop]

@hiplop, you are becoming more active, it seems - what are your thoughts on other players?

Macro is scum, 4nxiety town, Rhinox Null-Scum, fishy null-town, kortul town, and alice Scum i think

[Sleepless Assassin]

Macro, most likely not, but that's no reason to just forget about him being scum. I want my voice to reflect my opinions.

Kort, what exactly is your read on 4n?

DDD, have you ever seen a VT fakeclaim or a mafia discussion thread where it was discussed? I'm not necessarily saying it's the right thing to do, but the fact that it's out there means it's an option that it happened here. You seem to accept no answer except "welp, he fakeclaimed. MUST be scum." Like, I don't even think you are trying to determine what happened. You are either scum who already knows or town who refuses to remove the blinders.

4n, understandable. I've felt that way before. One question though. Why the avatar change?

[Fishythefish]

I'm back. Reading, thinking, stuff soon.

[hiplop]

<3 <3 <3

THEY SAID YOU WOULD NEVER COME BACK

[Fishythefish]

Firstly, dealing with stuff addressed to me:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DDD

Read DDD's ISO. It won't take long. There's nothing in there that looks like he's trying to catch scum - the closest he comes is with the Amished tell, when he wants the support of others. He's never really pushed anything.

DDD seems an ok choice, but no more than that.

???

This intervening quote is also relevant:

Someone-or-other's DDD meta (he always plays like this) is noted. It's not my impression of DDD, but I may be misremembering. At any rate, with the options we've got here someone who is never going to do anything and is not going to be easy to read seems a solid lynch.

My DDD scumread has never been very strong. In that first quote I'm saying he is useless, which for me is a minor scumtell. When somebody said this is null for him, and I realised my memories of his play are very vague, that became even weaker. When I said he was an ok choice (and now, at least before my catchup) that's because he's a player who I don't see being useful, I don't see any reason why he's town, and I don't see his alignment becoming much clearer.

fishy, you've played with DDD before right? have you seen him tunnel as either alighnment?

Sorry, I can't remember DDD's play well enough to answer this. I *might* have a look over our games together some time, but tbh I probably won't any time soon.

So, the case on Macro. I think it sucks. Points I can find against him:

- His original vote on Voided. I see nothing scummy about it at all.
- His turnaround from thinking Voided is scum to town. I can't see a scum motivation for this at all - Voided was dead set on Macro, and appeasing him wasn't going to do Macro any good. And the timing makes it really fit with Macro-town-giving-up at that point; I can really see Macro thinking that the argument he'd had with Voided made Voided look ok, and he just didn't care about consistency.
- The claims. I don't think they look scummy. I don't think scum are likely claim not-VT and then VT - that's just not how you
getting lynched.
- His turnaround back to thinking Voided is scummy. It happened a while after he attacked Voided, and they'd interacted in the mean time. I don't see why this is scummy at all. How is this a particularly scummy change of opinion?
- Defending himself by saying he is town. This isn't typically scummy, and I can't find any scummy examples of it in Macro's play.
- Calling DCL town with poor reasoning. This is pretty weak; DCL's response is what a townie *should* say, and to call it townish is hardly unlikely.

I think Macro generally looks town. I find his frustration today convincing; there's clearly some serious confirmation bias going round - a lot of the above looks like the result of assigning the scum motivation to something which has perfectly good scum and town motivations. His predecessors still count against him, and that's the only thing that gives me pause, but I'm not interested in that wagon.

For the people on it, I'm actually swinging round to think DCL is town. Mostly because of his LS-me link. Group scumhunting is a pretty solid towntell. (I had that reaction at the time, but forgot about it until a reread).

hiplop is still looking like town to me. See my hiplop/Rhinox wall for why he was town there. Lately, he's wrong about Macro but looks like genuine convinced town.

Voided is on the scummy side of neutral. I didn't like his early posting on Macro - looked like he was using Macro's bad position to write off what he said about him. Since then he's looked pretty tunnelled, in a way I've found tough to read. Recently, he said that Macro's 756, in which he criticised DCL's vote, was good. This looks kind of forced to me. Voided doesn't give any analysis of the post - which is odd because it's mostly a refutation of DCL's case, which overlaps with Voided's and is obviously relevant to Voided thinking Macro is scum. And, generally, I think it's pretty rare to see someone nod and say "yeah, townie post" to someone they are attacking go after another of the attackers. It feels more like Voided is trying to show he's not tunnelled than like he actually agrees with Macro.

@Voided: what was it you found townie about post 756? How did it affect your read on DCL?

DDD is doing more today, which is nice. I can't say I've got much of a read on him atm. I'll try harder soon.

kortul I don't really know about. His posting reads fine, but there's nothing really controversial in there.

On other people; SA is still town, as is Rhinox. Hooray! Alice and 4n I need to have a think about, and I'll do that later tonight. Then I'll vote for one of them, or Voided, or just possibly DDD.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Is it the 43rd already?

Fish basically summed up my thoughts on the macro case. He just did it in a more . . .well-written kind of way.

[Fishythefish]

@Alice: please do expand on your SA vote.

Hmmm. SA's early case on 4n is ok. 4n's response is pretty bad. He ignores the case at first, which I really don't know what to think of (it's pretty alien to me). But the bad bit is after that; when SA asks him why he's ignoring it, he says

So... you . . . Don't defend yourself ever in a mafia game or...?

don't be ridiculous, I wouldn't be playing the game if I never had to defend myself. Just not a priority of mine to dispel every accusation thrown at me, especially when that person already has it cemented into their head that me and funkybile are scum.

Ew. SA hadn't at all shown that he had anything of the kind "cemented into his head". He'd made one post, saying why he thought various things from SA were scum. It's pretty implausible that that post made 4n write SA off as hopelessly tunnelled, which is what this implies.

@4n: if you remember, what were you thinking about SA's case at this point? Later, you responded to it, and you had pretty reasonable explanations. Why didn't you post them at the time, to try to convince SA you were town?

I'm going to wait on the answers to these questions before voting.

[Voidedmafia]

Fishy: Eh, I meant to do a second post to articulate what I felt about it, but I forgot. Though, he posted that as I was making that decrying of DCL's vote, hence the P-edit to include it.

Long and short of it is that it didn't change my read of DCL very much (in the sense of going from town to scum; to be specific at the time , it went from fairly solidly town to about null), but it just felt like that was a good place to make a post, even if people (or just DCL, if he's the only one who's actually replied to it at this point) think it's kinda crappy.

Even now, I still feel like that post was fairly townie, which, again, is why I'm somewhat staying my hand from pushing him. However, even though I was denying it, I'm a bit too tunneled on him. I was (and still am) hoping to get somewhere after he flips (and I think I still can even if he flips town). And I have nearly everyone else at some level of towniness, which is obviously bad. DCL is currently the worst of those townreads, followed rather loosely by SA and DDP somewhat, and of the two DVs Rhonix is townier than Fishy.

LS's lynch just put me off on a bad start, and my ability to really get this game is dwindling by the second, and you can be sure that this is annoying the shit outta me.

[Macrophage]

I’ve already trapped him with his own words; he knows what a vanilla townie SHOULD have done and yet he has no explanation for what he did other than, "uh, but I'm vanilla". Busted.

Are you serious?

I don't know what to think of this post. What do others think?

@Fishy: I'm starting doubt my 4nx townread, but despite what has been said, I do think I have good reasons to think him town. What do you think of them?

@Voided: Imagine I've been lynched and have flipped town. How do you see the game then?

[Voidedmafia]

Well, I've already said that the "I'm VT" argument is really falling flat already. Other than that, I am slightly confused.

As for your hypothetical: DCL still stays town. Despite your post on him that pushed him lower, he's still pretty much revived funky's slot to me, and nothing makes me overly keen to change my mind on him.

DDP drops down to the slightly scummy range. It's nice that he's using more than the amished tell against you, but the fact that that was pretty much his only point of attack against you for quite a while doesn't sit right.

SA would look more town due to his dismissal of the case against you (though it just seems to be him arguing for the town/non-scum motivations while I argue the scum motivations). It's not abrupt or anything, but the tone just really sounds like, "Guys, you're wrong, get off his back, stop tunneling, and get some goddamn work done." Of course, if you flip scum it looks like scum trying to get pressure off a buddy, but that's not the point of this hypo, is it?

Anyways, the only other read that would feasibly change would be alicewondering, but my memory's starting to get fuzzy around the end of D1 in regards to who else was pressuring you along with me, and it's nearing bedtime, so this'll be all from me for now.