First, analysis of people's interactions with our dead scumbag. IMO, Macro's play is fairly dull, as is his predecessors'. Makes me think DCL and DDD are town, but doesn't really point to any scumbags. Much more interesting is what other people said about him.
Alice/Magua
Alice attacked Malee early with a serious case in
96. But then she said "hmmm, I'll think about it" to Malee's rather weak response of "I wasn't paying enough attention", then declares intention of moving off to funkybike before actually doing so, with this rather weird post:
In post 166, Alicewondering wrote:Nacho makes an excellent point on funky. Also Kortul. Consider me persuaded, though I'll keep my vote on Malee for now. I'd probably be willing to switch to funky whenever.
Reads like possible distancing - the serious seeming case gets abandoned pretty quickly without any more pushing, and in this rather forced way. She also says, very early "If Malee flips scum, LS becomes scummier". Could be an attempt to put LS in trouble after Macro goes down. And then Alice doesn't mention the slot for ages, until she
thinks it's been lynched
when she supports the lynch:
In post 389, Alicewondering wrote:Actually, hiplop's post was hammer by my count O___O
That said, I'm not too upset with a Theo lynch. I think that between Malee's poor case-pushing, Theo's amish tell, and Theo's hop onto my wagon, Theo is scummier than Bike. There's more concrete evidence for Theo being scum. While Bike may be scummy (especially with a wagon hop and no explanation), I still feel a bit more uncertain because there's so much lurking going on. While Bike is slightly scummy, I'm paranoid also that he's just an easy target for scum to latch on to. So I will think about that a little more.
For D2, DDD definitely needs to put more effort into scumhunting. I want to see an expanded set of reads from you. Funky should also be examined closely.
This looks like scum trying to distance a bit from theo, by calling attention to her scumread on the slot. She keeps up pressure on theo and then Macro after this, saying she's willing to hammer, and driving home her newly remembered scumread. I can easily imagine this from scum - when her partner is going down, she tries to hop on for late town points. As soon as the pressure on Macro eases (after the VT claim), she hops off.
None of that is impossible for Alice town. But it all fits really, really well with Alice scum with Macro. Magua didn't have much interaction with Macro - called him town and then moved on, essentially. From Alice's play, there's a pretty decent link here for me.
DCL
Something else that looks town to me:
In post 730, DCLXVI wrote: In post 724, Macrophage wrote:Really, the pushing on me from DCL, Debonair, Kortul, hiplop and voided are what I'd expect from scum
I wouldn't say that I have been pushing you much.
In post 724, Macrophage wrote:@Kortul/hiplop/voided/debonair/DCL: Are you likely to continue seeing what I post as scummy or do you think you could come to see me as town?
That really depends on you. If you act like town I hopefully will see you as town. If you act like scum I will most likely see you as scum. I don't see you as definite scum right now.
I just can't imagine scum denying attacking their buddy like this - scum usually want to appear more on the case of a buddy than they really are.
DDD
I thought there was a strong Malee-DDD link early on. Here's me from when it was more fresh in my mind:
In post 322, Fishythefish wrote:DDD hasn't done much, and I don't have much of a read on him. If themoaner's scum, so is DDD:
In post 136, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:Can't say I'm really interested in a Malee wagon right now since I think the fundamental point she made was a sound one about Nacho.
Here, DDD is saying that the Malee case is poor because she made a decent point against Nacho. But that's not the point at all – DDD expressed the actual case
himself
here:
In post 63, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote: In post 51, Rhinox wrote:It was a good point (not a strong point or a scum point) you had but it says more about you than DDD.
I'd love to know why it was a good point other than pandering to LastSurvivor because even you recognize the point was easily addressed.
VOTE: Nachomamma8
Malee is pathetically shrimping away from this, but I like the point. Nacho's an above-average player and when he's on cruise control and not reading things deeply that suggests to me he's not really looking for scum that deeply.
Malee's “pathetic shrimping” is pretty much the issue with her attack on Nacho. I said that I thought the case wasn't about the actual point, and DDD's answer was that Malee wouldn't bus Nacho. So, we have DDD basing a Malee townread on a Nacho scumread. That seems pretty tenuous – particularly since it seems unlikely that by post 136 DDD had a very strong scumread on Nacho.
This still looks pretty bad to me - DDD is strawmanning the case on Malee in order to dismiss it. Other factors make me pretty certain DDD is town, though - I just don't think you get the wagon pattern we had yesterday if both wagons are on scum. DDD's claim of his power and how he used it makes good sense, and I doubt he'd have used it there as scum. These firmly outweigh this link for me.
kortul
kortul listed Malee/theo/Macro as scum throughout day 1, without ever voting until threatening to hammer at L-1. There always seems to be someone a little bit scummier - SA, then bike, then Alice, then bike. This constant second scumread seems reasonably likely scum-on-scum - wanting to distance from your partner without putting them in too much danger. Fits with his posting on the slot as well - while he kept reiterating his scumread, he never gave much in the way of reasons and didn't do anything to put much pressure on the slot.
After the claim, kortul thought the VT claim was fairly null, and said he hated reading replacement slots. Doesn't fit so well with what I'd have expected of scumkortul, unless Alice is also scum - if Alice is town, he could have taken the opportunity to back off Macro in the company of myself and Alice. Very much FMPOV, of course. Day 2 kortul looks much better. He was consistent on Macro all day, and switched back to him at a key time - when the three wagons (DCL, DDD, Macro) all had 4 votes. He could have stuck on DCL easily, and the move back was important in getting the lynch.
Overall, kortul's play could be bussing, but I'd guess not.
hiplop
hiplop didn't mention Malee/theo for a surprisingly long time, and when questioned said things like this:
In post 214, hiplop wrote:While going through his ISO today, i noticed that he never commented on Malee or funkybike1. hiplop, what are you reads (or just thoughts) on them?
Heavily neutral. Which kinda scares me, for that rarely happens. I have a feeling one of them is scum, I just lack the competence to pin point which one
Mentioning the slot for pretty much the first time, he said:
This seems weird given that his favoured wagon (Alice) was joint with theo at this stage.
@hiplop: can you remember why you felt a theo vote was forced here?
hiplop reacted very badly to Macro's claim, and just called him confirmed scum after that. It seems a bit too strong - the claim takes him from very neutral to totally tunelled immediately. Then, extraordinarily, he say this:
In post 886, hiplop wrote:DDD's death isn't something I'm against, i was pretty vocal early on , I think. I'm open to hammer, just I believe we should wait a bit.
This looks very much like trying to save his partner. Given that Macro was the second candidate here, and he'd been railing against him so firmly, I struggle to believe hiplop was actually happy for DDD to die - if you thought Macro was scum, DDD was an obvious counterwagon. I think hiplop's a very decent candidate for bussing Macro.
Voided
Pretty simple one. Voided's attacks on Macro look sincere, and like they were intended to get Macro lynched. I don't think they are likely bussing.
Rhinox
Rhinox didn't say much about the slot for most of Day 1, and then made a good a new point and voted theo. Then this about Macro seems unlikely from Rhinoxscum:
In post 417, Rhinox wrote: In post 415, Fishythefish wrote:@Rhinox: yeah, meant Voided. What do you think of him, here and in the rest of the game?
Idk, I'm having a tough time being confident of reads in this game. Its like, I see big posts from mac up there and now I'm starting to have doubts about lynching the slot, even though big posts shouldn't mean anything about alignment.
I can't really see Rhinox scum admitting that he's dropping his scumread on a buddy for a bad reason. It would take some balls. He then seems to be floundering towards the end of day 1, but in the end tries to go for a Macro lynch. I feel like Rhinox-scum would be taking a firmer stance here - either get some credit for bussing Macro, or actually do something to avert the lynch. Then again, his play doesn't feel like scum day 2 - he changes from Macro to DDD as #1 suspect based partly on the reads of dead townies, which is just the kind of thing that gets negative attention. Again, I don't think Rhinoxscum would use this reasoning, which most people think of as weak, to justify a move on his buddy. The only reason to post this, like the quote above, is if Rhinox is just trying to tell us what he's thinking. Or faking that, rather brilliantly - but I doubt that. He then goes for DDD, and later DCL, all day (insofar as he was doing anything), before finally hammering. That hammer took the votecount from (DCL 6, Macro 5) to (Macro 7, DCL 4) - so it was critical in deciding the lynch. This line of play from Rhinox gets Macro lynched, without getting Rhinox much credit. Doesn't look like bussing scum.
SA
Twice on Day 1, SA said things amounting to "X is scum. X thinks Malee is scum. Malee is probably not scum." - first with me early on, then later with 4n. This seems a stretch - it's excluding the possibility of SA's Day 1 reads being wrong - and it's a convenient way to not have to either vote or defend her. His read on the slot fluctuates, and I tend to believe it, if only because his feelings mirror mine pretty accurately on Day 2. We both moved towards Macro town, and that was partly because we thought the wagon was really weak. And yeah, DDD, I am going to say "scum wouldn't defend their partner so blatantly" - or, at least, it's not very likely. Perhaps likelier than going all out for his lynch and trying to convince people, but not a particularly convincing fit for a scumbuddy.
So, to summarise, how well people fit as scumbuddies for Macro:
Pretty well
Magua/Alice
hiplop
Neutrally
SA
Pretty Badly
kortul
Rhinox
Very Badly
DDD
DCL
Voided
My next step is to focus on the people at the top of this list individually - so Magua, hiplop, SA. Perhaps kortul. I'll try to get this done tonight, but tomorrow is probably more realistic.