Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)


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Post Post #1225 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2012 10:10 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1216, kortul wrote:Fishy, Magua, DDD and hiplop replacement - what are your thoughts on DCL and my case on him?

@Voided, as far as i understand you are not going to vote DCL today, so can you at least give a feedback to my case?

Your analysis of DCL - particularly on D2 - is rather different from what I've been thinking. I'll go back and take a look at him next time I have a decent chunk of time for this game - which will almost certainly be on Monday. I rather doubt I'll be voting him today.

What do you think of his wagon on D2?
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Post Post #1226 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2012 4:34 am

Post by kortul »

In post 1225, Fishythefish wrote:What do you think of his wagon on D2?
I already gave my thoughts before, but can elaborate since this is interesting interactions puzzle.

When during Day 2 i voted DCL to get answers to my questions, only Macro jumped there, which means that there was no real interest to DCL wagon in a middle of the day. Only near the deadline, when DDD and 4nx wagons died, the attention switched to DCL. First attempt was made by you, but Rhinox persuaded you to try rolling 4nx wagon. Second attempt was started by SA, you joined soon, and Rhinox followed. If SA or you are town, those votes are consistent with your Macro-town view, and say nothing about alignment of DCL.

I did no ISO on Rhinox today and didn't realize before, but SA noticed, that before his DCL vote Rhinox (with 2 votes) said twice that he would prefare Macro lynch to DCL. That means, that even if SA or you are scum and were paying attention on possible counterwagons to Macro, i don't see where you were going to gather enough votes for DCL lynch, and that was just a parking place, again telling nothing about DCL alignment (with an added bonus if he flips scum one day).

Once Rhinox joined the wagon and DCL become L-1, situation changed. DCL wagon become a real wagon, and if DCL is town, things were ideal for scum. But, if DCL is scum, scumteam was under pressure and had to choose quickly what to do. Your posts at that time showed no stress, SA made no posts, DCL refused to vote Macro, and right after that Rhinox jumped to Macro.

So, looking at this wagon, i can't convince myself it was serious scum driven attempt. Rhinox joined it unexpectedly, and 4 hours later switched to Macro. Analyzing this wagon isolated from everything else, it was either parking place for town and scum stuck at Macro-town read disrupted by Rhinox, or Rhinox had the dilemma choosing what partner to lynch, and decided to sacrifice Macro, making DCL and himself more townish in process. That's why i said before that Rhinox is conditional scum for me, since Rhinox-scum makes sense mostly with DCL-scum. And the only improbable pair is DCL-Fishy, that's why when i began to doubt my Fishy read, i returned my attention to DCL and happy with that decision now.
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Post Post #1227 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2012 5:13 am

Post by Magua »

I'm not going to be here for the next two days (Memorial Day weekend in the US).
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Post Post #1228 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2012 7:25 am

Post by Voidedmafia »

In post 1216, kortul wrote:Fishy, Magua, DDD and hiplop replacement - what are your thoughts on DCL and my case on him?

@Voided, as far as i understand you are not going to vote DCL today, so can you at least give a feedback to my case?

It's
fine
, inasmuchas I'd reference it should I be brought to believe DCL is scum. If it's consolation, he's move into my lynchpool (and kicked Fishy out).
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Post Post #1229 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2012 6:54 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

Vote Count

Sleepless Assassin (4) - Debonair Danny DiPietro, imaginality, Magua
Magua (4) - fishythefish, Voidedmafia
rhinox (1) - Sleepless Assassin
DCLXVI (1) - kortul
kortul (1) - DCLXVI

Not Voting (2) - rhinox

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Post Post #1230 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2012 9:10 am

Post by kortul »

I hope this is just weekend lethargy. Had small window and started an ISO on Alice, but realized that there are lots of interactions, have to cross reference with other ISOs, so will continue tomorrow.

imaginality, welcome and were you able to read through the thread?
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Post Post #1231 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2012 6:36 pm

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

Well I'm back briefly, but it seems nothing has changed in the meanwhile. SA, kortul, DCL, and rhinox are still fucking around on non-wagons and hiplop's replacement has had nothing to say. Man, I'm glad we didn't lynch SA-scum when he was at L-1; we've gathered so much positive momentum since then.
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Post Post #1232 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2012 6:39 pm

Post by Voidedmafia »

All right, let's just get something done. I agree with Danny, at this rate we're just going to slide into the deadline with shit done.

vote; SA
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Post Post #1233 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 1:13 am

Post by Rhinox »

Back from v/la.

Just in time to:

vote SA
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Post Post #1234 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 1:39 am

Post by DCLXVI »

Unless I'm mistaken that was a hammer.
Sarcasm is
not
a scumtell.
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Post Post #1235 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 3:16 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Yeah that's 8 of the 7 votes. Checking twilight rules quick.
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Post Post #1236 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 3:21 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Ok, it says once your death scene has been posted you are dead. Here's a quick recap of my reads:
Rhinox=scum

Fish= scum read, but I keep questioning it.

Kortul/DCL= I just can't shake a feeling there is a scum here.

Hip=slight town

Magua/void/ddd= town

Id love to sit here and finish analyzing til the Mod posts a death scene, but all I have is my phone and I'm not sure it would help much anyway. I don't think anyone read the beginning of it.

I am very confident that Rhinox is scum though so please lynch him at some point.
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Post Post #1237 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 3:22 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Wait, my role is about to flip anyway.

I HAVE A GUILTY ON RHINOX.

Ok, peace.
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Post Post #1238 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 3:32 am

Post by DCLXVI »

Well, that does explain why rhinox would hammer without a claim.
Sarcasm is
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Post Post #1239 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 3:46 am

Post by kortul »

If you have a guilty then there is no need to post the rest of the analysis on Rhinox, once you flip no extra confirmation would be needed. Unless you noticed some relevant connections to living players there, in that case make short brief from phone while we are still in Twilight - you had original view most of the time, so that may help in future analysis. I used your findings from the first part of analysis in my answer to Fishy.

But why were you so apathetic in defending yourself?
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Post Post #1240 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 7:05 am

Post by Rhinox »

OK good we're getting another scumflip.
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Post Post #1241 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 7:27 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

Vote Count

Sleepless Assassin (8) - Debonair Danny DiPietro, Magua, Voidedmafia, rhinox
Magua (2) - fishythefish
rhinox (1) - Sleepless Assassin
DCLXVI (1) - kortul
kortul (1) - DCLXVI
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Post Post #1242 (ISO) » Mon May 28, 2012 7:31 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

Sleepless Assassin - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day Three


His vote passes to Debonair Danny DiPietro who now has two votes.

It is now night three
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Post Post #1243 (ISO) » Tue May 29, 2012 8:29 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

UberNinja replaces imaginality who requested replacement.
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Post Post #1244 (ISO) » Thu May 31, 2012 7:12 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

UberNinja - Mason - Died Night Three


His vote passes to Voidedmafia who now has three votes.

Deadline for day four is June 14th, 11 AM PST
With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
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Post Post #1245 (ISO) » Thu May 31, 2012 7:19 am

Post by DCLXVI »

@SA, nice twilight fakeclaim

In post 1240, Rhinox wrote:OK good we're getting another scumflip.


Very likely that he is town, I don't think this is something scum would say in response to a guilty.

DDD, rhinox, voided are all clear town for me,

that leaves kortul, magua, fishy as possible scum candidates with two scum remaining.
Sarcasm is
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Post Post #1246 (ISO) » Thu May 31, 2012 7:28 am

Post by Voidedmafia »

Okay, not gonna lie, I seriously thought either I or DDD would be dead.

Rhinox and DDD are town, no doubt.

Vote: Magua
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Post Post #1247 (ISO) » Thu May 31, 2012 7:35 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

I disagree about Rhinox. See this thread for discussion of a similar idea; it's trivial for scum to respond properly; you might catch bad players who are scum with such gambits but Rhinox isn't a bad player.

Town: Voidedmafia

Likely Town: Fishy

Scum Wading Pool: Magua, Rhinox, DCL, kortul

Will wade into the pool later to see what makes sense given the latest bits of info.
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Post Post #1248 (ISO) » Thu May 31, 2012 7:37 am

Post by DCLXVI »

Green=deadtown
blue=alive town
red=scum
black=potential scum

In post 642, LlamaFluff wrote:End of Day Vote Count

Lastsurvivor (7)
-
nachomamma8
,
4nxi3ty
,
DCLXVI
,
Macrophage
, Alicewondering, kortul,
hiplop

Macrophage
(3) -
Voidedmafia, Debonair Danny DiPietro, rhinox

Debonair Danny DiPietro
(3) -
Sleepless Assassin,
fishythefish,
Lastsurvivor


I doubt all three scum jumped on the LS wagon. Fishy is very, very likely to be scum from this votecount.

In post 958, LlamaFluff wrote:Vote Count

Macrophage
(7) -
Voidedmafia
,
hiplop
,
Debonair Danny DiPietro,
kortul,
4nxi3ty
,
rhinox

DCLXVI
(4) -
Sleepless Assassin
,
Macrophage
, fishythefish
fishythefish (1) - Magua
Sleepless Assassin
(1) -
DCLXVI


Nothing really conclusive from this votecount, fishy was calling me town before coming onto my wagon, probably could have wanted to save macro. Either kortul or magua could be bussing a partner with their final vote.

In post 1241, LlamaFluff wrote:Vote Count

Sleepless Assassin
(8) -
Debonair Danny DiPietro
, Magua,
Voidedmafia, rhinox

Magua (2) - fishythefish
rhinox
(1) -
Sleepless Assassin

DCLXVI
(1) - kortul
kortul (1) -
DCLXVI


Me vs kortul is potential town on town...ugh, I'm seeing a fishy and magua scumteam as the most likely right now.

VOTE: fishy
Sarcasm is
not
a scumtell.
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Post Post #1249 (ISO) » Thu May 31, 2012 8:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

Yeah as much as I'd love to take the town points for my end of day comment I'm not going to. Pretty sure I've seen a nearly similar scenario where scum made a comment just like that but it was a long time ago and don't ask me to go dig up the game. Aside from me being town and knowing a guilty is a lie, it should have been clear to anyone that if SA really had a guilty he wouldn't have waited until after he was lynched to claim it. And a cop in a mini with masons? come on.. I didn't make the comment to look town, I was just playing along to keep conversation going during twilight, see if anything came of it. Didn't really expect anything.


Gonna have to look into voided now that he's not 4nx's mason partner.


I was thinking about the 2 reactions to SA's guilty claim overnight. Scum would know the guilty was a lie, but they'd probably be hoping that there was some mechanic like an insane cop or miller that would lead to me getting lynched. I didn't like voided's response because he seemed to just accept the claim without thinking about it, no questions asked. Especially the justification "That explains why Rhinox would hammer without a claim" - How does that explain it? Considering I could have hammered days before when SA was sitting at L-1 and I was threatening to hammer. Kortul's response is better. He continued prodding SA for as much information as possible before twilight ended. Not sure its a pure town only comment, but if I were choosing between DCL and kortul I'd say DCL's comment was more likely to come from scum.


DCL: fishy and magua? You really think that makes any sense?

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