Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Magua]

Magua:

If DDD is scum with macro, what do you make of the whole claiming to flip macro's will with the secretary role to give you macro's vote?

Operating theory is that DDD's power either does something else (and wasn't used), or he claimed to have used it as a cover so he could save it for later.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I don't ignore the "hammering unclaimeds can make your life expectancy short if they flip town," but I do counterpoint that Macrophage was a leading wagon D1 and D2. The scummier facet, as I see it, is Macrophage entirely dropping suspicion of you when you claimed "Secretary" but refused to give out any details. Even with Fishy's unvote in 914, he could have jumped back on and resumed suspicion of you, or pressed for details of your claim to try to get it confirmed (like Fishy did), but he doesn't. Why do you think he was so willing to give up your lynch and move onto DCL?

I don't deny that Macro was a/the leading wagon the first two days; but the only player that I've ever seen make that move was Nobody Special and his game is terrible. I think any reasonable player holds out hope that they can do things the "right" way for even greater long term payoff.

And the follow-up is pretty easy to explain as well; with a claim like mine he would've only brought more attention on himself by trying to get me lynched post-claim; if he had any hope of survival he couldn't continue to push that I was scum. And sure he could've pressed for more details but Fishy was clearly already doing that, but you didn't push for details as far as I can remember, neither did anyone else; I assume because it would've been fairly redundent to do so with Fishy taking the lead on that.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Not really sure how the two are related other than they both vaguely involve hammers; care to explain?

Because no one else as far as I know threatened to hammer.

?

I said I was willing to hammer SA. Shortly after, DCL said he was willing to hammer SA. Whats the difference? Why am I scum for it but you haven't mentioned anything about DCL saying pretty much the same thing?

I actually forgot about DCL threatening to hammer because after that he backed away from that stance and seemed to be holding out for a kortul lynch especially. The situations are a bit different; you threatened the hammer, stalled things out, made one big post that didn't change anything and then hammered anyways; DCL threatened the hammer and then apparently changed his mind about the strength of his read and backed away from his threat.

I need to think about it more, but my first inclination is actually to

UNVOTE:

because it feels more like the motives I ascribed to you about wanting the lynch but not wanting to hammer fit DCL even better.

[DCLXVI]

@mod, I will be semi v/la from tomorrow through next saturday 6/9-6/16

Basically I'm going on vacation for a week. I will have my ipod and laptop with me and do expect to have access to the internet every day so I shouldn't have too much trouble keeping up with the game.

Just posting this because while I am pretty certain I will have internet access there is the small possibility that I won't for parts of the vacation so this is mostly just in case that happens.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

DCLXVI (3) - kortul, fishythefish
Magua (3) - Voidedmafia
Debonair Danny DiPietro (2) - Magua
fishythefish (1) - DCLXVI

Not Voting (4) - rhinox, Debonair Danny DiPietro

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is June 14th, 11AM PST

~Error in vote count corrected

[DCLXVI]

@Llama

VOTE: DCL

[DCLXVI]

I did threaten to hammer SA, but his catchup posts convinced me not to do it.

One of the problem I've noticed before with my play is that as town I've been on mislynches too often, so I've been trying to be less lynch happy.

[Magua]

Doublt DCL is scum, seeing as he was the wagon-of-choice from Macrophage.

I can buy DDD as town and DDD as scum, so: UNVOTE: DDD, VOTE: kortul

[kortul]

Magua, this isn't some newbie game, so conclusions based on straight newbie tells from an experienced player isn't what i expected from you. Macro didn't quickhammer DDD before he started claim therefore DDD is scum? Macro switched to DCL therefore DCL isn't scum? Let me continue this simple logic - Magua lynched two town and didn't lynch scum - he must be one hell of a scum. It all works with people who don't know how to play properly, are trigger happy and live in a current moment, not thinking about the past or planning ahead. Right now you suspect that i am scum who was bussing Macro, yet you don't even think that Macro could be bussing DCL. For all we know he could be bussing both DDD and DCL, we don't know who is his main account to find out how likely this is and what is his base scum behavior. We don't know whether Macro thought his lynch is inevitable or not, whether he needed to survive that day to tell his results to scummates or not, whether he was serious about lynching DCL or had the luxury to leave fake tells, just in case he was lynched that day.

Your vote by vote history was actually more interesting than that "didn't hammer" tell, i still intend to take a close look myself on that period during this weekend, it takes time since ISO's don't help with this, and you have to have whole picture in a head at once.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

One of the problem I've noticed before with my play is that as town I've been on mislynches too often, so I've been trying to be less lynch happy.

Does this bother other people as much as it bothers me?

[Magua]

Magua, this isn't some newbie game, so conclusions based on straight newbie tells from an experienced player isn't what i expected from you.

Obviously I'm far more terrible than you realize.

Macro didn't quickhammer DDD before he started claim therefore DDD is scum? Macro switched to DCL therefore DCL isn't scum?

How about: Macro didn't quickhammer DDD, instead unvoted and asked for a claim. Before he received this claim, he put his vote somewhere else. When DDD claimed, and by claimed I mean, said "I'm a one-shot PR but I'm not going to tell you what," Macrophage said, "Okay, person whom I've been pushing all Day, I believe you" and left it at that.

DCL has everything to do with interaction with Macrophage and nothing to do with DCL's posts himself, but DCL-as-scum-partner requires that DCL-scum sees Macrophage-partner up against DDD, and votes (busses) Macrophage, but then makes the skankiest switch ever to DDD when Macrophage-partner unvotes to get a claim, and is then beset for it. There's no scum motivation. DCL could've hammered DDD before, he could've stayed on Macrophage for towncred, but instead throws all the possible towncred away to join a wagon your partner just left? Nah.

Let me continue this simple logic - Magua lynched two town and didn't lynch scum - he must be one hell of a scum. It all works with people who don't know how to play properly, are trigger happy and live in a current moment, not thinking about the past or planning ahead. Right now you suspect that i am scum who was bussing Macro, yet you don't even think that Macro could be bussing DCL. For all we know he could be bussing both DDD and DCL, we don't know who is his main account to find out how likely this is and what is his base scum behavior. We don't know whether Macro thought his lynch is inevitable or not, whether he needed to survive that day to tell his results to scummates or not, whether he was serious about lynching DCL or had the luxury to leave fake tells, just in case he was lynched that day.

If Macrophage thought his lynch was inevitable, the only reason he wouldn't've hammered DDD when DCL gave him the chance is if DDD was his partner, yes?

So either DDD is partner, or Macrophage thought he could survive his lynch, or Macrophage was being bussed and going down for the towncred. Those are my three operating theories.

The only one in which DCL-scum makes sense is if DCL is too scared too hammer DDD to save his partner, but is not, for some reason, too scared to vote DDD when his partner unvotes. That is, the only potential DCL-scum case involves this thought process:

DDD is at L-1, DCL is voting partner
DCL: Man, if I hammer DDD I'll look hella scummy.
Macrophage unvotes DDD
DCL: I better vote DDD so that my partner can hammer, that won't look scummy at all!

Reeeeeeeegardless, given that my vote's on you and not on DDD, I'm obviously willing to buy that DDD may, in fact, be town, and that Macrophage was hoping something would pop up and save him from being lynched.

Does this bother other people as much as it bothers me?

Nope.jpg.

[Voidedmafia]

I think the third option is a far more likely. Sure, Rhinox's flip-flopping and the way things were going at first may have allowed the 2nd option to follow (and I may be delving into hindsight bias), but I think that his lynch was inevitable.

Though, if Macro did go down for towncred, then that opens the question of who was going for it? I'll try to find something for this once the MLG Spring champs end (just have the LoL part left), unelss Mag or someone beats me to it.

unvote

[DCLXVI]

Prod dodge post.

[Voidedmafia]

Vote Count

Macrophage (7) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro, kortul, 4nxi3ty, rhinox

Since 3/7 are confirmed (Hip and 4nx) or near-confirmed (me) townies, and option three means DDD isn't scum, only need to focus on Kortul and RHinox. That'll be easier.

Kortul:
Post 865 distances from the wagon (also said unvote). Macro's post immediately following this smells of buddying, though.
Post 881 slight reversal of 865 to light bussing.
Most posts past this are heavily (or at least firmly) endorsing DCL's lynch, indicating further distancing.
Post 912 Hesitant bussing, or something like that?

Rhinox - Post 874 Prefers Macro over DCL
Post 906 Again indicates DDD or Macro. Given where his vote finally ended up, should indicate bussing. (Funny note: That pool of four has 3 conf/near-conf, the odd one being Kortul)
Post 920 Abrupt switch to 4nx/me instead of DDD/Macro. Distancing.
Post 928 Back to DDD/Marco just as abruptly. Bussing.
Post 946 Hesitatnce in getting on Macro now indicates distancing.
Post 954 If read as bussing, "Oh please please read this as conflicted town rather than unwilling scum", or something like that.

From 865 to Macro's lynch at 958, with what I think each post means according to whether they push the lynch or avoid it.

Going by Mag's option three (which is that Macro was bussed and went down for towncred), Rhinox actually seems to be better tailored for this, which sucks because of how sure of a town read I have on him.

(Of course, I haven't really done something like this, so I'm probably wrong, but if you all can get something out of it, that'll work for me.)

[Fishythefish]

The only one in which DCL-scum makes sense is if DCL is too scared too hammer DDD to save his partner, but is not, for some reason, too scared to vote DDD when his partner unvotes. That is, the only potential DCL-scum case involves this thought process:

DDD is at L-1, DCL is voting partner
DCL: Man, if I hammer DDD I'll look hella scummy.
Macrophage unvotes DDD
DCL: I better vote DDD so that my partner can hammer, that won't look scummy at all!

This is nonsense. A quick mod/DCL iso shows DCL went on V/LA with the count at Macro 5 (including DCL), 4n 3, DDD 2. He returned at Macro 6, DDD 5, SA 1 and switched his vote. You're crediting DCL with making decisions at times he was definitely not online. I think the actual events fit really well with him being scum; as soon as there was a viable alternative he went for it.

As for your other defense of DCL, I think his wagon doesn't point to him being town, particularly if you believe I'm town. Only Macro joined it who could be scum - not exactly a serious counterwagon, and could easily be a flailing bus from Macro.

[kortul]

Macro didn't quickhammer DDD before he started claim therefore DDD is scum? Macro switched to DCL therefore DCL isn't scum?

How about: Macro didn't quickhammer DDD, instead unvoted and asked for a claim. Before he received this claim, he put his vote somewhere else. When DDD claimed, and by claimed I mean, said "I'm a one-shot PR but I'm not going to tell you what," Macrophage said, "Okay, person whom I've been pushing all Day, I believe you" and left it at that.

How about you follow the facts, not your memory/imagination?

Macro and DDD both at L-1.
847:

Macro

unvotes DDD (L-2 now) and

asks for a claim

.
855:

Fishy

- "

I don't think DDD should be claiming right now

. There's noone ready to hammer AFAIC, and there's no great time pressure."
860:

DCL

comes from V/LA, unvotes Macro (L-2 now) and votes DDD (

L-1

now) with no explanation
865: I am tired by DCL day 2 behavior, unvote Macro (L-3 now), and vote DCL to finally get his thoughts and answers
866:

Macro

votes DCL as well, with a strange emotional context.
874:

Rhinox

- "I'd switch my vote to macro before DCL if DDD isn't going to be lynched."
886:

Hiplop

- "DDD's death isn't something I'm against, i was pretty vocal early on , I think.

I'm open to hammer, just I believe we should wait a bit.

"
888:

Macro

- "@Hiplop: What are you waiting for? Intent to hammer.

Debonair, claim

."
895:

4nx

- "

would like to see a post from rhinox before any sort've claiming/hammering happens.

"
896:

DDD

- "Holding off a claim at 4nxiety’s request."
897:

Magua

- "But if I can't get any traction on fishy, I would far, far, far, far rather hammer DDD than DCL or Macrophage at this point."
906: Rhinox catch-up post.
912: With 2 days to deadline i switch back to Macro (L-2 now).
913:

DDD

started claim
914:

Fishy

unvotes DDD (L-3 now), ans starts interrogation
921: Interrogation finished, Fishy votes DCL
927:

Fishy explains his understanding of DDD role.

928:

Rhinox

- "Fishy: Switch to 4nx with me? <...> Otherwise, if I have to choose between macro and DC today I see myself choosing macro."
929:

Fishy

unvotes DCL and votes 4nx
930:

DCL

unvotes DDD (

L-4

now)
931:

4nx

votes DDD (

L-3

now)
932:

Macro

is back, unvotes DCL, ignores 4nx wagon and votes Voided

Guess we can stop here, and analyse Macro move. He is at L-2, DDD at L-3 with some unusual PR claim, 4nx at L-5 (but potentially at L-2 pretty soon). If he wants to go down, his best option is to either attack DDD claim (let's lynch PR), or jump on started 4nx wagon (4nx was his townread for a long time). His switch to Voided, who is voting him already anyway, means that Macro isn't ready to go down - he perfectly emulated town behavior.

So either DDD is partner, or Macrophage thought he could survive his lynch, or Macrophage was being bussed and going down for the towncred. Those are my three operating theories.

So, following my previous analysis of events i believe that Macro thought he could survive, and was doing all he can with that goal in mind. Actually, i don't see why those are three separate scenarios? How Macro desire to sirvive excludes the possibility of DDD being his partner (they could be bussing each other), DCL being his partner (same here), or that Macrophage was being bussed for towncred.

Actually, attacking his partners at that stage makes sense for Macro - if he somehow succeeds in a natural way, he will gain town credits needed to survive, and if he fails, this would be perfecr cover for a partner later on. After Rhinox said twice that he would rather lynch Macro than DCL, i don't think Macro viewed that wagon as something realistic anyway.

[kortul]

And in case it isn't obvious from a previous post, i was carefully reading that period looking for clues on why Macro didn't hammer DDD. He had a window between posts 860 (DCL put DDD at L-1) and 914 (Fishy put DDD at L-3 once he started claim). He could hammer inbetween without claim but what would be the results?

1) DDD is scum. Macro hammering without waiting for claim would bring more questions than town credits.
2) DDD is town. Macro hammering without waiting for claim would ruin his town image forever. At least three others (me, hiplop and Magua) said that they are ready to hammer DDD closer to deadline, and unless Macro checked DDD at night, he has no idea that DDD is PR. So he would hammer only if he is wants to go down and is content with trading with VT in process (and analysis shows that he wasn't ready to give up).

Once DDD claimed, hammer option wasn't available, and for the rest of analysis read my previous post.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Does this bother other people as much as it bothers me?

Nope.jpg.

Other people who actually have a handle on things like time sequence and casuality.

[Rhinox]

I'm starting to read kortul as town now. He's clearly putting a lot of thought into the analysis he's been doing the last several pages, and I can't find reasons to disagree with his conclusions.

Going by Mag's option three (which is that Macro was bussed and went down for towncred), Rhinox actually seems to be better tailored for this, which sucks because of how sure of a town read I have on him.

My vote on DCL doesn't make sense with me bussing macro for town cred.



I'm starting to consider whether I could believe DCL to be scum. I'm going to have to reread him and funky without my town-confirmation-bias tinted glasses.


I think odds are in favor of DDD and magua having the same alignment due to DDD's claim. If DDD is scum, I think the claim is meant to give magua townpoints since the most natural thought is that scum would place town players on the bottom of their will - namely those who they would least like to have another vote. If DDD is town, then Magua really was at the bottom of macro's will for a reason, either by conscious choice, or because he was last on the playerlist and wasn't moved - both scenarios point to town on a scum's will.

If they're both town, that would make the remaining scum... DCL + fishy? I need to really think about that...


I'm so useless this game...

[Magua]

This is nonsense. A quick mod/DCL iso shows DCL went on V/LA with the count at Macro 5 (including DCL), 4n 3, DDD 2. He returned at Macro 6, DDD 5, SA 1 and switched his vote. You're crediting DCL with making decisions at times he was definitely not online. I think the actual events fit really well with him being scum; as soon as there was a viable alternative he went for it.

DCL's V/LA was till Thursday, 4/26.

His unvote of Macrophage/vote on DDD occurred on Saturday, 4/28, three days after his V/LA was over.

You can see from his posts on this site (hope this link works) that he was posting Thursday through Saturday on site, just not in this thread.

With Sleepless' L-1 vote on DDD at midnight 4/27, and DCL being on the site and posting in other games, I think the argument holds water.

As for your other defense of DCL, I think his wagon doesn't point to him being town, particularly if you believe I'm town. Only Macro joined it who could be scum - not exactly a serious counterwagon, and could easily be a flailing bus from Macro.

The question/problem is, "Why flailing bus when you could've hammered town?"

Stuff from kortul that starts with the assumption that I didn't read all that when my posts have been very clear that I read all that.

It's three days to deadline. Rhinox needs to stop being useless. DDD needs to say who he thinks scum is. DCL needs to realize that Fishy isn't getting lynched today.

[DCLXVI]

I think I made it clear earlier but I will say it again. I'd like today to end with either a fishy, mag, or kort lynch. Fishy is still my first choice. If that isn't going to happen my vote will go to either magua or kortul.

[Magua]

3 days. Literally zero other support for a Fishy wagon. What, exactly, were you waiting for?

[DCLXVI]

I'll have a vote down tonight on someone other than fishy

[DCLXVI]

VOTE: Kortul

[Fishythefish]

@Magua:

1. Interesting. DCL not posting here for two days could just be because he wasn't up to speed and couldn't be bothered to become so, but it definitely seems less likely he'd have done that as scum.
2. Again, interesting - points to DDD scum, although Macro did move to DDD (with "intent to hammer") pretty fast. But I don't see how it says anything about DCL's alignment.