Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

danny, what is your current read of fishy?

Same as it has been most of the day; likelier town than not. I'm still high on a big three of Macro/Rhinox/SA though one of those last two might be wrong for someone who is/was voting for Macro.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Macrophage (5) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro, 4nxi3ty, kortul
Debonair Danny DiPietro (4) - rhinox, Seepless Assassin, DCLXVI
DCLXVI (3) - Macrophage, fishythefish
fishythefish (1) - Magua

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is may 3rd, 6PM PST

[Fishythefish]

DCL was the one who made the me-LS link, and so is probtown for me.

<snip>

VOTE: DCL

??

I'm unkeen on all these lynches. DDD's role is pretty obviously last will shenanigans. Essentially, I'm guessing that DDD rewrites a will - fits with the rolename - which is way OP for scum (particularly near endgame). Macro is one of my firmest townreads. Yes, there is something that makes me think DCL is town, but other things make me unsure. Overall, I've got a bit of a town read on him, but I'm more comfortable with his lynch than the others. I don't think anyone else in the game has received enough attention that they could actually get lynched here.

[Rhinox]

Fishy: Switch to 4nx with me? SA makes 5 votes if he joins too, ties it for leading wagon currently.

Otherwise, if I have to choose between macro and DC today I see myself choosing macro.

[Fishythefish]

OK, let's do it. Kind of forgot I was a double voter.

UNVOTE: VOTE: 4n

[DCLXVI]

unvote:DDD

his roleclaim seems believable. Though at this point if he has a 1 shot day ability that could help town. It may be best if it is used before a lynch happens.

[4nxi3ty]

danny, what is your current read of fishy?

Same as it has been most of the day; likelier town than not. I'm still high on a big three of Macro/Rhinox/SA though one of those last two might be wrong for someone who is/was voting for Macro.

his play reminds me of junpei from magician mafia, i've been kinda waiting for you to call him out on all the waffling...

Oooo, a non-standard role.

UNVOTE:

Because DDD being at L-1 doesn't seem a great idea right now.

This feel likes "Oooo, I finally have an avenue to avoid bussing my buddy" when it should feel like "Oooo, this setup is awesome" or "meh i don't like the idea of lynching a possible powerrole"

I want this lynch now.

Vote: DDD

hmm this may be a little premature but I don't want to risk it with deadline, and potentially my lynch, approaching... I am a mason.

If my will gets manipulated and my vote goes to Danny, Fishy, Magua or Macro they ARE NOT masons.

[Macrophage]

Unvote: DCL

Vote: Voided

I'd like this more than a 4n lynch.

PEdit:

I don't want to lynch Debonair and especially don't want to lynch 4n now.

[Fishythefish]

Well. We don't lynch masons. We don't even make them claim their mason buddies at this stage.

I expect you've already thought about it, but you might want to consider

not

leaving your vote to your buddy. Second mason is still a powerful claim later; the balance between that and giving a known townie two votes is not clear.

UNVOTE:

And seriously? I finally have an avenue to avoid bussing my buddy? Read my damn ISO. If DDD was my buddy, and I didn't want to bus him, I've have had plenty of opportunities to stick to my reads on other people to get other lynches.

Thinking about what to do.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

his play reminds me of junpei from magician mafia, i've been kinda waiting for you to call him out on all the waffling...

I didn't read Magician Mafia looking for scum so I didn't really remember that at all. More importantly, why would I use junpei meta for Ftf when I have Ftf meta I can use?

hmm this may be a little premature but I don't want to risk it with deadline, and potentially my lynch, approaching... I am a mason.

A mason in the sense that you have a QT together or a mason in the sense that you're willing to say your partner is confirmed town?

[4nxi3ty]

And seriously? I finally have an avenue to avoid bussing my buddy? Read my damn ISO. If DDD was my buddy, and I didn't want to bus him, I've have had plenty of opportunities to stick to my reads on other people to get other lynches

there is always an oppurtunity to lynch someone else. Your post immediatly after ddd's claim had more vibes of relief and excitement than frustration and sadness about your top scumread possibly being wrong. This is the second day you have adamantly voted ddd yet have backed down later.

his play reminds me of junpei from magician mafia, i've been kinda waiting for you to call him out on all the waffling...

I didn't read Magician Mafia looking for scum so I didn't really remember that at all. More importantly, why would I use junpei meta for Ftf when I have Ftf meta I can use?

It isn't about meta. It is about how you are aware that scum sometimes have the tendency to waffle, yet you haven't expressed the slightest suspicion towards fishy's waffles.

A mason in the sense that you have a QT together or a mason in the sense that you're willing to say your partner is confirmed town?

both, and thats all I really have to say on that matter for now.

[Fishythefish]

And seriously? I finally have an avenue to avoid bussing my buddy? Read my damn ISO. If DDD was my buddy, and I didn't want to bus him, I've have had plenty of opportunities to stick to my reads on other people to get other lynches

there is always an oppurtunity to lynch someone else. Your post immediatly after ddd's claim had more vibes of relief and excitement than frustration and sadness about your top scumread possibly being wrong. This is the second day you have adamantly voted ddd yet have backed down later.

I was taking issue with the "finally found an avenue to avoid bussing your buddy" line. It's pretty clear that I'm not scum who's somehow been pressured into voting DDD - this wagon has never had much momentum, and I've contributed a fair amount of it - and that was the vibe I got from your post.

Excitement is fair - I like claims (and information-ish situations generally), because it's a part of the game I enjoy. Frustration and sadness about my scumread? At that stage I hadn't thought very hard, and hadn't decided that DDD was probtown yet, so I wasn't sad or frustrated. Actually, I don't feel those things now either - though it's obviously not great to be in a deadline lynch scramble without any scumreads, it is quite fun . You may be misreading my unvote - it was a "L-1 halfway through claims is a bad idea" unvote, not a "DDD is town" unvote.

I neither voted DDD adamantly yesterday, nor backed down. Today, I've consistently had a mild to moderate scumread on him, and he's made what I think is a very townie claim.

What do you think of my take on that claim? I think it's pretty likely - a Secretary, who writes out wills, gets to alter someone's will by not typing it out right. This power would be really huge for scum - particularly as the game wears on - and so I doubt they have it.

Where have I waffled?

[Sleepless Assassin]

A.) Relevant*

B.) How are you not getting that I was outweighing (or at least attempting to) the scum case? I mean, yeah, sure, I never mentioned the scum case (though the original draft did), but do you really think that wasn't an/the intention of that post?

I'd have liked to see what you didn't like about the case.

______________________

Ok, here's where I stand:
-I won't vote Macro unless it comes down to him or no lynch.
-DDD's claim looks like a genuine one.
-I want to lay off 4n with the mason claim

Vote DCL

Probably the best lynch today and he already has a miniwagon, so let's do this.

[Macrophage]

Ok then...

Unvote: Voided

Vote: DCL

[DCLXVI]

Probably the best lynch today and he already has a miniwagon, so let's do this.

actually I had

0

votes on me when you laid that vote down. This is scummy. let me paraphrase SA "oh look, a little wagon, let's get on it"

vote:SA

yes, this is an OMGUS vote. Macro is likely town, I believe DDD's claim and right now SA is coming off as scum trying to get an easy last second mislynch.

[Sleepless Assassin]

My bad, I was judging by the last vote count. Either way, I'm happy with my vote. It's the best lynch that actually has support.

By the way, if I wanted an easy mislynch, id vote macro who you just called town so.....yeah....

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: DCL

Best lynch going.

[Voidedmafia]

Reading Fishy's possible description of DDD's claim helps me believe it more, as that makes perfect sense given the theme of the game. DDD is thus off my lynch list.

I'm still rather against a DCL lynch, so I'll only vote him if no one will lynch Macro.

SA: What do you mean, "What I didn't like"? If you don't remember, I heavily agreed that Funky was one of the scummier/scummiest people in the game, second only to Macro and his slot. But DCL has outweighed the parts of the funky case that made me think he's scum. Is that better?

[Macrophage]

Ok. I've updated my will.

I'm not really sure what to do now, because I don't think there's anyone other than me that could get 7 votes on them before deadline. I think my thoughts at this point should be fairly clear from what I've posted, but I also think that the reactions to my claim and people's reasons for being on my wagon could be useful to further consider.

If I was to have a guess at the scumteam, I'd probably say DCL/Voided/Rhinox. Debonair's also still a possibility I think, but that decision can be made later.

[Voidedmafia]

Re-explain Rhonix, please.

[Macrophage]

I haven't really thought about him as much recently, but I think he makes sense with DCL and I have stronger townreads on everyone else.

[Rhinox]

Yeah ok not 4nx with the mason claim.

I think this is the current VC

Macrophage (4) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro, kortul
Debonair Danny DiPietro (3) - rhinox, 4nxi3ty
DCLXVI (4) - fishythefish, Seepless Assassin, Macrophage,
fishythefish (1) - Magua
SA (1) - DCLXVI

Deadline in about 8.5 hours.

DCL - SA really isn't getting lynched today. Magua, neither is fishy.

I really don't like choosing between Macro and DCL. I'm going to renig on what I've been saying though. I like the company on the DCL wagon a lot more than the company on the macro wagon.

unvote, vote DCL

Macrophage (4) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro, kortul
Debonair Danny DiPietro (3) - 4nxi3ty
DCLXVI (6) - fishythefish, Seepless Assassin, Macrophage, rhinox,
fishythefish (1) - Magua
SA (1) - DCLXVI

DCL is at L-1 you should claim ASAP.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I really don't like choosing between Macro and DCL. I'm going to renig on what I've been saying though. I like the company on the DCL wagon a lot more than the company on the macro wagon.

[DCLXVI]

I'm a vanilla townie, and yes my will is set,

There really isn't a case against me right now which will be evident after my town flip (if I am actually lynched.) Honestly, I'm rather surprised I'm even at L-1 right now.

One thing really got my attention though.

OK well I've read through the last 10 pages or so, so I guess I'm officially caught up. But I really don't have anything grounbreaking to say right now.

DCL and alice now magua are still townreads for me.

Nice job putting one of your townreads at L-1.

[4nxi3ty]

What do you think of my take on that claim? I think it's pretty likely - a Secretary, who writes out wills, gets to alter someone's will by not typing it out right. This power would be really huge for scum - particularly as the game wears on - and so I doubt they have it.

The logic makes sense though there an infinite number of ways to balance a game so I don't think it is that clear cut. tbh it sounds like a claim engineered to be believable, especially when I suspect his buddy has been pushing the validity of the claim.

Where have I waffled?

Spoiler:

rhinox

Damn. Rhinox is scum. And I'm never going to convince soberFishy, let alone anyone else.

Note to self: you made this post for a reason. Work out what that reason was, and then meta Rhinox's very early game play.

Hmmm. I think I can see what I was getting at - Rhinox is very flippant and friendly here, without any attempt to get things going. Might just be his style, I'll check out his meta later today.

@Rhinox: I certainly remember playing with you (and enjoyed it every time), but my meta of you isn't good enough that I have a feel for your likely page 1-2 play as town and scum. That's true of everyone, probably including myself.

Anyway, going through some games I don't think RVS flippancy is a particularly good scumtell for Rhinox. Actually, he seems to play seriously pretty early as either alignment, so it might be a Rhinox-is-an-impostor-tell. Still not feeling very good about Rhinox, though. The "I don't have you the top of my last will" seems calculated to remind me that I should want Rhinox to think I'm town (which, of course, I do), and so should back off attacking him. I'm going to

UNVOTE: VOTE: Rhinox

@fishy: just curious, which games of mine did you use to meta my early game play?

I just went down your topics list. Open 338 was the only scum one, and there were plenty of town ones including LWIII. The game most reminiscent of your play here was called something like Round Table Mafia, and you were town - so the meta gives you a mild towntell.

Rhinox's post 54 reeks of town to me. The sentiments are convincing and townish - particularly "hard to seperate wrong from scum" and "this sort of thing encourages town on town BS" (though I'd modify it to "alignment independent BS" to pick a nit). I think scumRhinox would be fighting Lastsurvivor harder - it's a fight that it feels like he could win - rather than this.

UNVOTE:

@Rhinox: I didn't look at the LW games before III. In III, you did joke around on page 1, but there was also content - you talked about mechanics, and asked who wanted your vote. Here, other than answering DDD, you were completely contentless for several posts.

funky/dclxvi

VOTE: funkybike

Do you have nothing to say about the game other than unvoting?

Alice is scum

Alice's move to hiplop is really bad:
LS's case on Alice is a mixed bag. “You didn't apply that tell to everyone” just doesn't do much for me. Of the 4 points, only 2) and 4) do anything for me – Alice's contrived explanation of the simple fact that defending scum is scummy feels off, and not trying to get a read on themoaner is also bad. Also, Alice's backing off from hiplop in the face of pressure looks scummy. All in all, Alice is looking like scum here.

Funkybike is worse than a standard lurker
Themoaner's content so far has been fine. Malee's scumminess is rapidly fading from my mind, but it shouldn't be – this slot is still pretty likely scum.

DDD hasn't done much, and I don't have much of a read on him. If themoaner's scum, so is DDD:

Leaning scum:
DDD (probscum so if themoaner is scum)

Probscum:
Alice, themoaner, funkybike

I think funky was more than a lurker hunt, and Malee was scummy, not just forgetful. See my iso.

Rather DDD than Macro. Both are bad lynches, but Macrotown I'm more sure on.

Oh yeah, I remember. DCL was the one who made the me-LS link, and so is probtown for me. Scum rarely hunt for multiple scum day 1, and probably if they do they connect a townie to a buddy, not two townies. OTOH, I think his push on Macro isn't great, and funky was scummy. Pretty mixed feelings (sorry Magua ), but I think I prefer this lynch to either of the others.

VOTE: DCL

Yes, there is something that makes me think DCL is town, but other things make me unsure. Overall, I've got a bit of a town read on him, but I'm more comfortable with his lynch than the others.

LS

Other townies

LS does the same to a lesser extent – though he doesn't really explain enough that he's at all likely to help. More to the point, I'm pretty much certain he's trying to catch scum, so he's very likely town.

LS is being very appeasey generally. He prodded Rhinox, and only voted when I agreed with him. Rhinox replied, and I backed off, and so did LS.

None of those actions are poorly explained, for me. But I don't like the way they line up with scum avoiding conflict.

Lots of faint townreads on people who feel genuine, which is nice. LS, SA, hiplop and Rhinox are in this category. I don't have any scumreads atm, but I'll spend some time on the game and try to cobble one together tomorrow.

You want to give your vote to town, and preferably competent town. If you have time to read the game, great. If not, pick from this list of townies:

Me, Rhinox, LS, Nacho

Looking at LS, I no longer think he's particularly townish, but tbh I don't really get the case on him. I'll give it another go tomorrow. For now, I'm just going to sheep Nacho.

VOTE: LS

Yes, that what's I'm referring to.

IDK. If you accuse someone of not posting content, and they post content, that doesn't mean your argument was irrelevant and dismissing it is still strange.

Bleh. I'm kind of liking LS's responses here. Strike me as town genuinely trying to explain himself after making a mistake. I wish my scumreads didn't keep falling apart.

malee/theo/macro

In fact,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Malee

I think Malee's prod at Nacho is the scummiest thing in the game so far.

Malee flaking sucks. I really wanted her explanation, and now instead I just have an unsatisfying suspicion on someone who won't be able to explain anything. Maybe we should just lynch her.

It's pretty clear to me that Malee was panicking and backing off without really thinking about what she'd actually said/thought about Nacho. This kind of contradiction seems more likely from scum than town for me.

I think the case against Malee is strong. Sure, there's only one point, but it's a pretty good one.

TBH, I'm quite liking this catchup post from themoaner - lots of it has me nodding along, and it doesn't seem particularly self interested. Bleh. I hate weighing my reads of two different people in one slot.

Definitely want to hear from theo about the Alice flipflop. Actually, I take back some of the strength of feeling in my last post. Alice is still not the right call, but depending on what I hear from funky and theo I could go either way there.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: theomoaner

L-1.

VOTE: Macro

L-1 again. Macro should get his will in order, and then claim, and then get lynched.

Not-VT claim is unacceptable. The main points of a claim is that if it is likely to get confirmed or (less so) shot at, we can leave you alive. If you have the option of making up a claim to fit the facts later, that's no good to us at all.

VOTE: Macro

@Macro: that turnaround from theo looks bad to me because it didn't make sense. He'd called Alice the "voice of reason" in the game, and then because of one thing he found "a little strange" he turned round and voted her. I feel he's scum who'd forgotten how much he'd said Alice was town - possibly rereading only his catchup post, and not the explanation he gave me. That kind of townread just doesn't evaporate that fast.

So, the case on Macro. I think it sucks.

For the people on it, I'm actually swinging round to think DCL is town. Mostly because of his LS-me link. Group scumhunting is a pretty solid towntell. (I had that reaction at the time, but forgot about it until a reread).

there are still some questionable posts about alice and ddd I haven't had time to get to. Also, I didn't quote all the relevant posts just the ones that I felt were most relevant. Some of your read changes are more natural than others but I find the overall evolution of your reads to be very odd.

since DDD isn't getting lynched today, I am going to go with the defacto lynch that will benefit the game dynamic the most.

unvote, vote: macro