NY 151: Playground Mafia (Game Over-Mafia Win!)

[Psyche]

Holy Fuck I'm not doing this deadline lynch bullshit again.

Junpei was scum.

Fallman CLAIMED SCUM IN HIS FIRST POST. THAT POST ONLY HAS SCUM MOTIVATION. SURVIVALISM IS A SCUM MOTIVATED PLAY.

HE DIDN'T SAY "LET ME SCUM HUNT". HE EXPLICTLY SAID HE WOULDN'T!

WE ARE LYNCHING FALLMAN TODAY. I WON'T LET SCUM DERAIL THIS LYNCH!

He's pretty blatantly a dumb newbie and you're driving this way too hard on far too simplistic terms.

Do you think this looks like scumbud vs. scumbud?

No, thats a good point for town maxwell.

Hhhm.....

[Code_X]

Read SC please Psyche before you hammer me. Give me that honour at least.

[Psyche]

Benmage never supported codex lynch, and I've been expressively about maxwell's clearedness and DLG a day ago more against codex than maxwell.

That the NKer would go out of his way to kill someone who isn't totally cleared gives the significance of this more weight.

[Psyche]

the only thing that cleared max was unsubstantial banter...

[Psyche]

I can totally see NN as scum. >.>

[Psyche]

I'll wait for maxwell to respond to my question.

[DLG]

FakeGod was a predictable lynch though.

If we're all in agreement that Maxwell is town as I say it will be simple.

Albeit, I'm not convinced yet on his innocence.

If you want to lynch me before Maxous then fine. Though I'd prefer it the other way around.

I don't know quite what to make of this.

We were at 4 v 2, at the time, although everyone seemed to think it was 5 v 1.

Would scum!Code_X throw himself in front of his buddy Maxous's lynch? A Code_X scum flip would just place an extra burden of suspicion on Maxous.

Would Town!Code_X be willing to die instead of Maxous, there? I can actually see this, especially if he believed that it was 5 v 1.

AAAARRRGGGHHHH!

UNVOTE: Code_X

[maxwell]

Im debating believing this.... at worse it gives maxwell... 1 day of survival. At best it gives us another cleared townie.

Vote Hezzlucky

(Im pissed I didn't PM PV last night that I feared being Nk'd by Hezz whom I epiphanized was the SK.. purely for BA points)

If I were scum lying it wouldn't even give me another day, it would just get me shot by the real SK. And I'm not that stupid.

Could you explain the thought behind this more thoroughly?

It's very important that you make sense.

Okay. If I were to fake-guilty a random townie as scum to get them mislynched, the SK is just going to kill me on that night since I'm confirmed scum. That's really all there is to the thought.

[maxwell]

FakeGod was a predictable lynch though.

If we're all in agreement that Maxwell is town as I say it will be simple.

Albeit, I'm not convinced yet on his innocence.

If you want to lynch me before Maxous then fine. Though I'd prefer it the other way around.

I don't know quite what to make of this.

We were at 4 v 2, at the time, although everyone seemed to think it was 5 v 1.

Would scum!Code_X throw himself in front of his buddy Maxous's lynch? A Code_X scum flip would just place an extra burden of suspicion on Maxous.

Would Town!Code_X be willing to die instead of Maxous, there? I can actually see this, especially if he believed that it was 5 v 1.

AAAARRRGGGHHHH!

UNVOTE: Code_X

I don't understand what you're getting at here. Being self-sacrific is townish in early game, in the late game it just seems off. But regardless, There's a pretty good reason for him to suggest the possibility of him getting lynched befoe maxous - he knew Maxous was flipping MAFIA ROLECOP and that maxous's chances of winning solo were better than his.

Going through NN/Code ISOs tonight.

[Code_X]

Okay. If I were to fake-guilty a random townie as scum to get them mislynched, the SK is just going to kill me on that night since I'm confirmed scum. That's really all there is to the thought.

Yeah but the role-cop would have known he was the serial killer.

He would have told you the exact same information.

Not sure why you think a serial would go out of his way to kill scum neither. He'd more likely try to get you lynched.

[Psyche]

SO MANY PRS. The last listing excluded the universal backup, too. V.V

[DLG]

I don't understand what you're getting at here. Being self-sacrific is townish in early game, in the late game it just seems off. But regardless, There's a pretty good reason for him to suggest the possibility of him getting lynched befoe maxous - he knew Maxous was flipping MAFIA ROLECOP and that maxous's chances of winning solo were better than his.

My point is that from scum!Code_X's point of view, it's a stupid gambit. Suppose we had lynched Code_X, then, and he flipped scum, and the game wasn't over, like it wasn't. Is there any way Maxous survives the fall out from that? It's patently clear that Maxous would have had to die. It just doesn't make any sense.

By that time in the game, there was no difference between scum RoleCop and Goon. All of the PR's had been killed except maybe you.

It was 4 v 2. All scum needed was one single mislynch for the win. For Maxous to distance from you does have advantages, though. He did it without voting for you. That leaves us in the dilemma we now have.

SO MANY PRS. The last listing excluded the universal backup, too. V.V

Well, there's 8 confirmed, out of 17 Town. maxwell's being true would be 9 out of 17. That seems so hugely powered.

I'll be damned if I know.

Ain't this fun? I mean, there's only 15 other players hoping we get this right.

[PeregrineV]

Vote Count 8-4

(as of Post 3161)

Code_X (1)

- maxwell

maxwell (1)

- Code_X

Not Voting (2)

- DLG, Psyche

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline:

Sunday, July 29, 2012, 1pm CDT

Replacing:

No one

Prods:

Psyche

V/LAs:

No one

[Code_X]

Just going to do a quick IIOA of shottiszik/Maxwell. It won't take long to do ...

Shottyiszik

First thing worth noting is his complete lack of contribution. I know this alone doesn't merit him being confirmed scum but Maxwell's first post is 2083. Prior to that Shotty posts 26 posts only. Page 88 on Day 3. I actually thought Maxwell replaced on Day 2 but seems not.

Anyway Shotty.

Moans about a policy lynch. Calls Nero scum.
Says Nero needs to die. Votes Nero.
326 says he's not seeing Rack as scummy. Distancing from the town lynch. Knows he'll flip green.
Says Psyche is coming across as arrogant but not scummy. Knows he is town.
356 - Red votes Firestarter. Shotty in his next post FOS's Red. Merely for wanting the hydra to show its head.
Defends himself against Nero who tells him to grow up.
Says he's catching up, asks Antihero to explain his read on him.
That was on the 19th April. He then posts a V/LA for two days before appearing again on the 3rd May to says he's catching up. 2 weeks zero content.
I vote Red. He then follows me and fails to really explain why.
Junpei asks him to build a case he doesn't.
Accuses Red of not scum-hunting. Pot-kettle. Explains why he can't post more.

Says Mastin's case 1468 against him is awful. Some wonderful defence.

I'm going to wander off a bit into the actual game - TML votes Shotty in 1485. SC posts a lot around this time and votes Mastin. 1494 LLD votes Shotty. No reason. This I can see as a bus easily. SC is very defensive of Shotty in 1499 - calls him a suboptimal lynch. Not much happens next few pages. I need to really re-read. Shotty reappears and makes no reference to the votes from Mastin, TML, LLD - effectively avoiding the accusation. Benmage says he is his strongest scum read in 1560. LLD pops back in 1586 and votes Junpei. Essentially the Shotty vote previously held no force.

Going back to my IIOA on the scumbag.

He says nothing past 1556 which is in response to Red saying we should all vote Shotty.

So in 83 pages, 2000 odd posts, 3 odd days, that is all you get. And you guys think this slot is town. We should have lynched it days ago.


Maxwell later. Again won't take long.... contribution is minimal.

[Code_X]

Maxwell -

Comes in at 2183 says will post reads. They arrive in 2296.

Says he prefers a Fakegod lynch to a Fallman/Kdowns lynch. Asks LLD why we should lynch Fallman says he will vote Fakegod but doesn't. He also says he'll support a Fallman lynch but says Junpei who was Fallman was obvious town. Go figure.

Says Fallman is blatantly a dumb newbie in response to LLD. Responds to Nero says he worded things badly. Calls me dense after I complain that he replaced in and only looked at three leading wagons. Which he did........

He then disappears again until 2449. Which is worth re-reading. Is wary of the Benmage votes (two scum on it). Questions OGML why Hez is scum. I'm thinking to myself scum may have had the role cop result back.
Calls Psyche, Andrew, Fakegod, Code, SC scum. Ends up voting Andrew but happy to change to Fakegod/Psyche.
Bungs Maxous in his town reads pile.

FakeGod gets a few votes and he hops over after accusing Andrew of being the SK.

2675 calls out OGML for not explaning his position on Hez. Says he will vote him.

Gets asked for scum reads not much changes FakeGod, Psyche, SC.

DV's post in 2687 is good. Maxwell offers a kind of flimsy defence. Gets a bit more aggro against DV in 2766.

Keeps throwing dirt at OGML. 2939 votes SC. Also asks to be investigated. 3032 he then claims the FBI Agent and nails Hez.

Says he won't be confirmed town in 3047 just role hmm.

3055 says he's lieing but still right about the investigation. Make of it what you will.

He then busses Maxous and considering most of us felt it was between him and me. He seems to pretty quickly assume Maxous is scum ahead of me. It's WIFOM but he hardly considers at this point that I'm scum. 3080

3107 is complete bull. What is the point of mafia talking at night, having a role cop who cannot communicate with his partners.

The fact is, Maxous's flip should effectively clear me - I'm confirmed not to be a scum rolecop now, and if he had the information, he shouldn't have been able to pass it along.

3108 And look he still seems to think if Benmage had lived it would have been a choice between Ben and Me. Not me, Ben and Code. Why on earth in that case would I as scum kill Benmage?? Maxwell would not have been cleared if Benmage was alive.

I'll respond to 3139 later.

[Code_X]

DLG/Psyche.

What do you make of the night kills?

[Code_X]

Nights 1 and 3 specifically - but all of them if you want to analyse.

[Code_X]

Fine with this. it's one or the other, interactions with LLD point a little more toward Maxous.

VOTE: Maxous

Day 7 - why do you think Maxwell completely ignores me?

He knows Maxous is scum 100%. A townie would consider me surely before voting Maxous.

[Code_X]

Bilbo Baggins.

[Psyche]

I'm more ready to commit to a maxwell lynch atm.

[maxwell]

RE: NN/code interactions

no mention of jason. slight stated town reads on maxous/LLD. They do call out firestarter at the end of their ISO, but it's not done forcefully - "Anyone care to join me?" is going for a passive vote rather than an active one. They also flake from the game before they have a chance to respond to anything, so it doesn't mean too much.

Then, here's the kicker, code replaces in, unvotes, and avoids saying much negative about firestarter.

take a look at this reads list on him replacing in:

4. FakeGod jasonT1981 - Jason struck me as scummy. FakeGod has done nothing.
5. Firestarter - Must re-read. Think again he got picked on somewhat
20. Lady Lambdadelta - Aggressive townish. Does like to take a stance, warming too.
22. Maxous - Need to review but didn't move from Psyche
24. GreyICE Praetyre - Praetyre nothing. ICE no real read

3/5 of those are nothing reads, LLD was universally seen as town, and fakegod was essentially the designated bus target for scum, and a safe one at that.

Breaking it down by member:

LLD - barely mentions/interacts with her until she's dead

Fakegod - calls him scummy a lot, but never votes him until the wagon really takes off.

Firestarter/OGML - #1222 "[pine's] vote on Firestarter today reads like lazy."

Then, he defends him again in #1362 - dismiissing redFF's scumread on him as "lurker'absent" Which is followed up with voting red for "not being productive" which is pretty ironic given the circumstances as well as his push later to just lynch any lurker, all of which are conveniently town

Because I agree with his reads ...

Well apart from Firestarter/OGML who I think is town.

Fakegod - Where's he gone? Another who says Junpei/Fallman is town. Say FakeGod who is scum here? Like you have a vote on Nero but yet to explain. Let's hear it.

Of the rest LLD, Hez - despite there continued push/tunneling against Fallman I think it's coming from a town view. Though I'm keeping an open mind with both.

Maxous and Nero probably give me the best townish feeling. Mastin meh. OGML I have no interest in lynching.

StrangerCoug - seems to be trying to get under a fair few people's skin but he's null.

this is covering all of them, but again he's avoiding lynching OGML and just questions fakegod rather than really pressuring him.

Code_X: What do you think of LLD's reason for wanting a Fallman lynch?

It's better than your case against OGML. It's a more viable lynch.

Junpei made several scummy posts - disputed Drmyshotgun for one. Fallman has essentially flaked/cannot be bothered.

And yeah I can live with a Fallman lynch.

VOTE: Fallman7

speaks for itself.

Then LLD gets shot, and day 2 he does an about face on OGML, does vote him on the basis of LLD defending him, but that's about it, there's no real drive there as much as it was sheeping with andrew94, who people didn't want to piss off. But then, page 103, the moment the fakegod wagon becomes a viable counter, he hops to that to protect the roleblocker. And then there's this, later in the day.

I've got no beef with OGML lynching today.

But, what I don't like is how Andrew is trying to direct the town.

I'll say again Andrew. Why did you claim when you did? There was no reason to. Even if you believe we should lynch OGML - claiming wouldn't help your case. I just find it strange.

Speaks for itself, really. This is similar to how to SC tried to find a way to get off the OGML wagon


Breaking down SC/Maxous next, this post is already fairly long.

[maxwell]

Fine with this. it's one or the other, interactions with LLD point a little more toward Maxous.

VOTE: Maxous

Day 7 - why do you think Maxwell completely ignores me?

He knows Maxous is scum 100%. A townie would consider me surely before voting Maxous.

Terrible argument. I thought we had a mislynch, and I ctrl+F'd scum ISOs to look for clues, decided he was scummier. Just because I didn't feel the need to elaborate on my thought process doesn't mean it was there. Your hesitance that day is what gives you away.

[maxwell]

Okay. Look at the numbers on day 5. It's 5/3/1. This is a make or break day for scum - if they can get a town mislynched, then it goes into night with 2 kills. In the best case scenario, the SK has shitty aim and they win instantly. but if he hits scum it's still 3/2/1 the next day and scum are virtually guaranteed a win

But if scum bus, they suddenly make their odds significantly worse since the cop is getting an investigation which is going to either catch one of them or limit the number of possible mislynxhes they have and for scum at endgame that's a suicide squeeze - not to mention the risk of getting shot by the SK in the night if they bus, leaving them with virtually no chance of winning

So, if I were scum in that scenario, and I suspected Hez of being the SK, why the hell would I bus in that scenario when I know he thought I was scum and I'd just risk him shooting me that night?

Look at code's reaction to that wagon:

@ Benmage. I'm not ignoring SC - but I need to Iso him and the dead scums and their interactions with Praetyre and GreyIce also before even considering voting him. There should be no rush for anyone to hammer or end the day yet. So allow me 24 hours to at least look at him.

This is his only comment on it - HIS ONLY ONE. Try to find mention of Maxous on day 5 from Code, as well - you won't find any. he was going for the mislynch. Yesterday, it's a similar scenario - he didn't want to lynch maxous, that is why he waited as long as absolutely possible to vote him, despite suggesting he was potentially scum way way way back in post #2559 (and then ignoring him for nearly 40 posts). He knew Maxous's flip would leave him in trouble which is why he suggested the possibility of him getting lynched first, TOWN DOES NOT OFFER THEMSELF FOR THE LYNCH IN ENDGAME.

Sorry for taking so long on this, it's just that I have trouble presenting my ideas in an organized format but really the past few days should make it pretty clear

[maxwell]

I don't understand what you're getting at here. Being self-sacrific is townish in early game, in the late game it just seems off. But regardless, There's a pretty good reason for him to suggest the possibility of him getting lynched befoe maxous - he knew Maxous was flipping MAFIA ROLECOP and that maxous's chances of winning solo were better than his.

My point is that from scum!Code_X's point of view, it's a stupid gambit. Suppose we had lynched Code_X, then, and he flipped scum, and the game wasn't over, like it wasn't. Is there any way Maxous survives the fall out from that? It's patently clear that Maxous would have had to die. It just doesn't make any sense.

By that time in the game, there was no difference between scum RoleCop and Goon. All of the PR's had been killed except maybe you.

It was 4 v 2. All scum needed was one single mislynch for the win. For Maxous to distance from you does have advantages, though. He did it without voting for you. That leaves us in the dilemma we now have.

Maxous didn't even get to post that day. And I still don't follow your logic with regard to the lynch. Which do you think is more winnable for the scumteam: having maxous as the dead rolecop, or having code as the dead goon, leaving me as a potential lolscumrolecop suspect. I think between the two moves he did what was more plausible. There hasn't even been a plausible argument as to how I could know the SK if Maxous hadn't rolecopped him, or how that could have been found out.

[Code_X]

Fine with this. it's one or the other, interactions with LLD point a little more toward Maxous.

VOTE: Maxous

Day 7 - why do you think Maxwell completely ignores me?

He knows Maxous is scum 100%. A townie would consider me surely before voting Maxous.

Terrible argument. I thought we had a mislynch, and I ctrl+F'd scum ISOs to look for clues, decided he was scummier. Just because I didn't feel the need to elaborate on my thought process doesn't mean it was there. Your hesitance that day is what gives you away.

Bullshit.

No fucking townie comes in straight away and basically ignores one other unclaimed possible scum. You knew Maxous was 100% scum hence why you didn't bother considering anything else.