A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[greenknight]

So congratulations. Your protown bandwagoning vote ... has just guaranteed we'll be lynched today. (Well, a roleclaim could hypothetically save us, but I'm not dumb enough to softclaim either VT or useful/confirmable PR this early by my reaction.) Because there's no other serious option, and people are slowly trickling in and going. "Well, we're halfway through the day and we need to consolidate. I haven't actually caught up with the thread, but I see a large block of people have parked their votes on Minimum, and sure, they haven't proven that they're town. I know MagnaofIllusion is a brilliant scumhunter who would never lead the town astray, so I'm just going to be protown and sheep him."

... this is just exaggeration. I've GUARANTEED that you will be lynched today? No, if anything, voting you earlier rather than later makes it more likely that alternate viable wagons will form in time by the end of the day if you're town, since people are reacting to your wagon. The "trickle" of other people voting you is so far 1 person - Shinori - and he's voting you for stated reasons that have nothing to do with consolidation or MoI.

Why aren't the other current wagons a serious option? And why do you think that MoI would policy lynch you on d1 for the hell of it?

[Plessiezarus]

Greenknight's entry post is also rather odd. Jumping on two somewhat-popular wagons without catching up on the thread, at this point in the day? Can't see the town-motivation for that.

That's simple enough... It's a 28p game which means a lot of inertia in terms of moving wagons to the point of being a serious lynch threat. Since my predecessor wasn't actually voting and catching up will take a while, it's correct play to place initial votes quickly imo.

This explanation doesn't make much sense to me. If you think it's hard to move wagons in a big game, adding your vote to the biggest wagon is surely not going to make it easier to pressure new people. And until you've caught up on the thread, how can you be confident that the most popular wagon in the middle of day 1 is also the best wagon?

Mina's reaction to this vote is more the sort of thing we were expecting to see from a town-Mina. Would have probably been more convinced by a non-edited version of Post 641 though (assuming such a non-edited version actually existed, of course).

I still don't like the Minimum wagon, so I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Shinori

to give a little competition for a better option.

At the point you cast this vote Shinori and SnowStorm were tied on five votes each. What do you think of SnowStorm? Don't think you've mentioned him as a town-read, or ... well, at all, yet. Can't see that you mentioned Shinori before, either. Why Shinori over SnowStorm? For that matter, why not try voting for Tyene? (She's the only person you've really talked about suspecting to date.)

And yes, we promised a post about Tyene. Still working on it. Will respond to Edd's long post later too (just reading it was effort enough for now).

~ Pless

[Eddard Stark]

House Buckler of Bronzegate is one of the noble houses from the Stormlands sworn to Storm's End.

Day 1, Votecount 23

MagnaofIllusion (1) - Shadow1psc
Starbuck (1) - redFF
SnowStorm (5) - Plessiezarus, Regfan, Tyene Sand, Feysal, Jal

Minimum (8) - MagnaofIllusion, Salamence20, Hasdgfas, Lyanna Stark, StefanB, Benmage, greenknight, Shinori

Salamence20 (3) - Amrun, Minimum, bvoigt
Feysal (1) - Starbuck
Shinori (6) - Pandora, BBmolla, Staeg, Plum's Yo Mamma, Dolorous Edd, Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (3):

Mockingjaye, kortul, SnowStorm

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 3rd September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-03 18:59:59)
  
• MOI is V/la.

CHOOSE THUNDER

Tyene Sand (1) - Feysal
Dolorous Edd (2) - hasdgfas, Jal
Feysal (5) - Dolorous Edd, Salamence20, Bvoigt, greenknight, Shinori
Hasdgfas (1) - Shadow1psc
Minimum (1) - Regfan
Starbuck (2) - Starbuck, Staeg
redFF (2) - Minimum, Pandora

Shadow1psc (6) - BBmolla, StefanB, MagnaofIllusion, Plum's Yo Mamma, Benmage, Mastermind of Sin

Mastermind of Sin (1) - Tyene Sand

Not Choosing (7):

Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, kortul, redFF, Amrun, Plessiezarus, SnowStorm

With 28 alive it takes 15 to 'Choose'. Once a choose has 15 votes it will be locked in but not end day.i

Any mistakes, please point them out.

[Plessiezarus]

OK. Tyene first, then we'll respond to Edd's big post.

People have already pointed out that Post 247 is a bad post. There's no good reason to choose somebody you think is a bad lynch (and Tyene's stance on choosing had earlier been that you should choose people you'd want to lynch; see for instance Post 45). Her responses when challenged about this post (see Post 261-, Post 569) seem disingenuous - she spends a lot of time focusing on things other than the incongruity of choosing somebody you've just called "a bad lynch". And the oft-repeated "I'm just sheeping Regfan because the game's so hard to follow" excuse wears a bit thin; it seems to be something she brings up to defend odd looking votes, but ignores when she's promoting her own pro-town credentials (see for instance Post 414).

More generally we have the sense that Tyene cares more about what people think of her than she does about hunting scum. She actually has some good posts (we quite like the redFF vote as explained in Post 91, for instance) but things don't seem to fit together quite right.

* Don't like the repeated defense of Edd. This might be what Regfan called a town-tell for Tierce earlier (in Post 425) but to us it feels like more than defending a town-read. It feels like an attempt to buddy up to Edd. (The repeated remarks to the effect that she "could do worse than sheeping Regfan" also feel at times like an attempt to curry favour with Regfan.) It doesn't seem that Tyene has ever seriously wondered about Edd's alignment; she's just looking for a reason to call him town.

* Given that she's claimed to be sheeping Regfan because "there are walls that I have skimmed at most, and at this stage I'm following the game mostly by virtue of reading Regfan's posts.", it seems odd that she'd chide Shadow1psc for "wanting to stifle discussion" or berate MoS for daring to vote for somebody before reading them in iso. Yes, "hypocrisy is not a scum tell", but this sort of disconnect seems very strange. The posts aimed at Shadow1psc and MoS seem like attempts to gain town-credit by mouthing platitudes ("discussion is good", "town players should be careful and reread before voting"). They don't seem like the sort of things you'd say if you were finding it hard to keep up with the thread and needed to rely on another player's summary posts. But this is exactly what Tyene has claimed.

* Although we suspect SnowStorm (and encourage more people to vote for him), we don't like the manner in which Tyene does so. We didn't find SnowStorm not unvoting Benmage all that suspicious. As Snowtorm says himself, there was no scum-motivation for him to keep his vote on Benmage while declaring him a town-read. Benmage was in no danger of being lynched. It's "odd", maybe, but surely not

suspicious

. In Post 352 it seems to us that Tyene is just happy to have a found a vote that other people have explained for her. She's very careful to point out that she's just agreeing with Regfan and Lyanna here. This vote does not seem consistent with her Post 417 ("You should stop assuming stupid = scum") or her irritated response to MoS's "lazy" vote on her. The fact somebody's actions seem to make little sense shouldn't automatically lead you to assume they are scum.

* Something about the repeated RP also gets on our nerves. It feels slightly too self-aware, as if she knows people are going to gloss over it. (Certainly, the closing line of Post 93 - in which Tyene preemptively defends a possible mislynch of Feysal on the grounds he'd make a good vig-choice - seems like something that would have attracted more comment if it wasn't cloaked in RP language.)

Tyene

: can you link to other games in which you've defended your town-reads (as town yourself, preferably)? Can you link to any theme games in which you've RPed in this way before, for that matter?

Why (and when) did Minimum go from being a scum-read (as late as Post 554) to being somebody whose survival you "would much appreciate"?

~ Pless (but really this is a proper hydra post)

[StefanB]

Okay we should probably switch the waggons:
I feel better with giving Minimum a gun than Shadow.
So I try:

Unvote

Unchoose

Choose: Minimum

Vote: Shadow

Of to read ISOs at the moment.

[Plessiezarus]

So it’s much better right now to create pressure than really having to believe in your vote. I’m not saying just bandwagon or something, but you don’t really necessarily have to believe with all your soul and heart that someone is scum to be voting/choosing them at this point. At least, that’s the way I see it, because otherwise, scum can easily slip by.

Ok. Fair enough. Now, can you tell me how did you intend your vote on Hyperion to cause pressure if you did not state any reasons for it?

As I said, he started the game out strongly, jumped right in, wasn’t really cautious, and really started scumhunting at an early stage. I think the majority if not all of scum would start the game on a cautious note especially in a game this large. You know, if you put yourself in a scum shoes, would you just really come out and start posting a lot and interact and stuff, or would you lean more towards the side of cautious?

Can you point at the posts that make you feel this way?

That’s why upon reading Regfan’s post first, my mind clicked right away “town”. Upon assessing it, however, it really didn’t strike me as town as it did the first time around, and I realized that someone can easily begin the game like that and look strong while merely just writing a lot of words summarizing and putting tiers and stuff.

Ok, so something in Regfan's post is rubbing you off wrong. Can you give me some insight at what you think is iffy about Regfan's summary post in this game as compared as what he's done in other games? Or, can you just tell me what you find off in his summary?

Umm, not really sure. I really can’t speak for Alek, but for me, I really don’t take “I suck” or something along those lines as you’re not getting lynched. Sorry I can’t really expand on this. But me and Alek are really two different people <_<

This isn't addressed to us, but touches on a point that has been bugging Pless. You seem to assume that players should discern which Hydra head has said what? Not everyone here is familiar with either of you, and

Plessiez can't distinguish you for his life

some of us aren't that good at noticing posting quirks in people (unless you of course are Mina and CES, in which the difference in

the gargantuan verbosity of Mina is obvious

posting style is rather evident, --well unless Mina takes vow of silence, which she could but it then would be boring and we'd be yelling at her for it?--). I would appreciate if from now on you would make clear which head is saying what, and, for the sake of everyone's sanity, at least

try

to start acting like a single slot. Also,

this is why Hydras should sign their posts

.

~Zar.

[Mastermind of Sin]

At the point you cast this vote Shinori and SnowStorm were tied on five votes each. What do you think of SnowStorm? Don't think you've mentioned him as a town-read, or ... well, at all, yet. Can't see that you mentioned Shinori before, either. Why Shinori over SnowStorm? For that matter, why not try voting for Tyene? (She's the only person you've really talked about suspecting to date.)

Didn't even see the SnowStorm wagon. I could go for either one over Minimum.

Why would I continue to vote for Tierce after it's clearly been demonstrated that most of my case was based on mistaken facts? I'm not going to pretend that it's still a good case, even though I thought it was decent at the time I posted it, because I now know more than I did then. It wouldn't make sense to vote her at this point.

[hasdgfas]

Are you comfortable with a Choose vote on Shadow after who he said he'd vig?

I'm not basing my choose off who I think they're going to vig, so...yes?

Interesting. You're just completely ignoring an important part of the event? Why?

[Staeg]

I'm sorta here-ish
Would prefer minimum to not die, but mainly because I think there are far better choices
Don't think MoS doing the tierce vote ass-forward is a scumtell (would shoot anytime, though)
Aaand that's it for now.

[Tyene Sand]

Now that is an embarassing slip. Don't mind the puppy.

On Plessiezarus's Post 653:

Why is Post 247 a bad post? The only people bringing it up have been MoS (for reasons he cannot keep up once questioned about it) and Hascow (who hasn't explained it yet). And yes, there are reasons for choosing someone you think is a bad lynch, namely that you're putting a vig choice in their hands. I've explained this, Regfan has explained this, this isn't rocket surgery.

The game isn't hard to follow, nor am I findinding it hard to keep up, I have plenty of time; I'm mostly being lazy. I'm not a spectacular scumhunter and I work better with townreads than with scumreads, especially in the early game. There are 28 slots here and I'm not going to pay the same attention to everyone today, so yes, Regfan's posts are actually a good way to keep up with the game. I was being partially facetious when I commented on that, as I tend to read his posts

while

referencing back to the actual events. But no, I haven't read some of the walls. I didn't do so in the D1 of Weather Mafia II either, if you want a frame of reference.

As for defending townreads, Regfan has already touched on this. Yes, I defend townreads. A lot. Won't bother linking--basically, check any and all of my games. As I've said, I'm a better townhunter than scumhunter, so watching how people interact with my townreads and how they make points against them is a good way for me to get later reads.

As for stupid = scum, I fall in that trap all too often and tend to tunnel on stupid. The fact that I was aware BB was doing it doesn't mean I'm not capable of doing the same error--I'm pretty self-aware, but I tend to tunnel people for matters of Justice. Which is a bad thing, I know, and I'm working on it--thus my indecision with MoS. "The fact somebody's actions seem to make little sense shouldn't automatically lead you to assume they are scum." You're absolutely right with this, motivations > behavior, and I tend to get caught-up in that "aha, what you did makes no sense" thing without much on the why. Basically, see every town game in which I've tunneled someone. >.> I managed to work myself out of a wrong town tunnel in Catch-22 Mafia with someone else's help, and here I'm trying to reason out MoS. No, I haven't put much time into

that

yet. You have no idea how much electronic hell I've been in for the last 24h when trying to work 4 years' worth of updates on an old Windows laptop.

I know people will gloss over the RP. I'm aware of that, so I'm trying not to leave anything that is game-relevant in there, because I know people skip it and I'm okay with that. But I'm having a bit of fun, and my RP is hardly extensive or my words hard to understand if you have knowledge of the source material. (No one has complained about

that

yet.) I haven't used a flavor alt before, and while I've touched at RP before in games and I'm a tabletop RPer outside games, there has never been a sort of

consistency

with a single character in a mafia game. This is mostly due to the fact that I like Dorne, I lke the Sand Snakes, this playerlist is mostly decent so I like the game so far, and I've been waiting for this game since I've joined, as AFFC Mafia was just slightly before my time and far too long by the time I considered replacing in.

Also, this post shows something else about me--I'm extensively self-aware and I know a good chunk of my meta as both town and scum. (Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it, etc., etc.) I also know I'm terrible at changing it anyway, so my scumgame kind of outright sucks. Good thing I'm never scum anyway~

~Duplicate post deleted

[Pandora]

I'm getting mad. I feel like I could make a statement and copy/paste it every 24 hours and this could be my Day 1 contribution:

Shinori and redFF: still doing nothing. Votes plz.
At least Shinori is answering my questions, even if it's to say he doesn't have time to read (so why did you /in?) Look, what I want isn't that complicated. Form your own opinions and tell us what they are. Make an informed decision based on all the choices, not just by reading the two most unpopular people. It's not hard to find something wrong with their posts when that something has been pointed out five hundred billion times.

Actually, I can ask you something, your choice on Feysal is because it's not Shadow1, because he's scummy but his shots are bad? If so, what do you think of Stefan's suggestion to switch the Minimum/Shadow1 vote/choose wagons around? I'm wondering if people on those wagons have considered that might be a good idea.

omg a puppy! Not-Tierce defending town reads is a given. I think I read somewhere you were trying to get rid of that habit though? Blood for the Blood God or something. Trying to reason out MoS seems pointless, he seems to play exactly the same as town and scum to me.

[Shinori]

I have a vote down, okay I have tomorrow off and I'm good for the rest of the day. You will have more opinions and probably a quote dump from me sometime in the next few hours. All I did at that point in time was do what I could in a very small amount of time.

[Tyene Sand]

Not quite. There's a difference between white-knighting VI-townreads, which was I brought up in Mafia Behind the Maiden as a point of frustration (mostly due to events in Experimental Role Mafia and in Chrono Trigger Resurrection), and explaining/defending townreads on players I think are able to stand their ground and not make utterly stupid choices later in the game.

Stop* stalking me.

I agree with the Totally Anonymous Head of the furry critter re: Shinori and redFF. Town guns pointed this way please and thank you.

[Tyene Sand]

Why (and when) did Minimum go from being a scum-read (as late as Post 554) to being somebody whose survival you "would much appreciate"?

Sorry, missed this in the avalanche.

I think my reads are probably shittier than they usually are, because I'm too inclined to feel positively about people (like bvoigt and MoS) whose play looks scummy but who are defending us (either directly, or by chainsawing people who attack us). So it's hard to untangle "people who are playing toward a scum wincon" from "people I want to (metaphorically) die in a fire." It's a bad sign when I'm getting paranoid of my town reads for no reason whatsoever other than "They're voting me/don't like me/kind of looked at me funny."

This rings true and I've been in that position as Town. Mina sounds genuinely frustrated for a wagon that, on her eyes, has reasoning like "you're not obvtowning enough". I've been there enough times (Chrono Trigger Resurrection, Otherworld, late Weather Mafia II) that this feels like something I would post as Town and not as scum in a similar situation, and I

have

been (rightfully) paranoid about some such townreads.

[Jal]

We'll see, Plums. I think I'd prefer a Sal wagon if I chose my pet-lynch. Old games, old games.

@SnowStorm

Of all the people voting me I think you presented one of the worst reasons. Why would I (or anyone in my position) as scum, make that post?

I don't have any scum reads atm, as I said, I need to re-read. But I do have some bad feelings about Minimum and now about you.

Why scum would make that post:

"Especially when he asks "What do you think?" It feels like a callback to Dolorous Edd's post 14 which someone called a town-tell not much sooner."

To use a phrase that someone already declared was a town-tell of sorts and hopefully apply said tell to work for themselves. Helpful when a bandwagon is starting on someone, no?

Now then, is my post really one of the worst reasonings presented? Tsk. I thought I was

at the very least

ahead of the people getting on you for not saying hi or being too serious at the beginning.

Maybe instead of writing walls explaining how you don't have any scum reads or that you need to reread, you should do just go ahead on the rereading bit and come back to us.

Hey Jal, what are YOUR thoughts on Minimum? You keep asking that to D.Edd but you never expressed any thoughts on Minimum yourself.

Hmm, my gut currently leans to the townier side of things. I'd like to see Minimum without all the pressure, though.

By the way, asking the question (again) yourself isn't going to help you gain any town cred.

@Minimum

: I'd actually prefer to see more bitchiness and self-pitying instead of telling us how you could have/were going to be moreso. Being a bitch and sore about yourself can come across as very genuine and sometimes town-like. Telling us about it, is not.

@Dolorous Edd

Thus, scum can easily fly through that, because just because they are being pressured by one or two or even five or six people, they can still easily wiggle out of it, esp by lurking or something. For example right now (and I know he didn’t do this on purpose, but just an example), when Hyper went on V/LA or whatever, and got replaced and stuff, he significantly lowered the suspicion on him, because a) It’s really pointless to create pressure when someone isn’t here to respond to it and b) People just start losing that passion, that drive, when someone isn’t posting, interacting, etc.

How and where do you notice that the suspicion on Hyperion was lowered significantly when he went on V/LA? He actually

gained

a vote after he declared V/LA and when his replacement came in.

I seem to be better at evaluating the events surrounding Min

You say this, but I haven't see this evaluation in-game.

[greenknight]

Greenknight's entry post is also rather odd. Jumping on two somewhat-popular wagons without catching up on the thread, at this point in the day? Can't see the town-motivation for that.

That's simple enough... It's a 28p game which means a lot of inertia in terms of moving wagons to the point of being a serious lynch threat. Since my predecessor wasn't actually voting and catching up will take a while, it's correct play to place initial votes quickly imo.

This explanation doesn't make much sense to me. If you think it's hard to move wagons in a big game, adding your vote to the biggest wagon is surely not going to make it easier to pressure new people.

Well, look at what happened since I voted. Pushing the Minimum wagon caused reactions from both heads of the hydra, and also from people defending minimum. This gives us useful content to analyse, and speeds up the process of reaching a consensus on whether the wagon's good or not. So, if we decide the wagon's bad there'll be more time to conside other targets.

And until you've caught up on the thread, how can you be confident that the most popular wagon in the middle of day 1 is also the best wagon?

Voting is better than not voting on d1, imo you should go with the material you have and move later if you find a better target.

Mina's reaction to this vote is more the sort of thing we were expecting to see from a town-Mina. Would have probably been more convinced by a non-edited version of Post 641 though (assuming such a non-edited version actually existed, of course).

I do expect emotional outbursts from Mina. This one feels rather exaggerated with the "guaranteed lynch" stuff though, as I mentioned in my previous post.

Mina sounds genuinely frustrated for a wagon that, on her eyes, has reasoning like "you're not obvtowning enough". I've been there enough times (Chrono Trigger Resurrection, Otherworld, late Weather Mafia II) that this feels like something I would post as Town and not as scum in a similar situation, and I have been (rightfully) paranoid about some such townreads.

Sure she's frustrated... but wouldn't she also be frustrated as scum? I'm sure it's very annoying if you happen to draw scum, feel like you are playing a decent game and someone pulls "not obvtown enough" as evidence against you. I do see with your point about paranoia being a typical town reaction when the attacked player feels the reasons for voting are bad, but I don't see why scum could not also make a "you guys all suck" post.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Are you comfortable with a Choose vote on Shadow after who he said he'd vig?

I'm not basing my choose off who I think they're going to vig, so...yes?

Interesting. You're just completely ignoring an important part of the event? Why?

Because if the person we're choosing is scum (which should be the goal), then they probably lied about who they're going to shoot anyway.

[Tyene Sand]

Greenknight's entry post is also rather odd. Jumping on two somewhat-popular wagons without catching up on the thread, at this point in the day? Can't see the town-motivation for that.

That's simple enough... It's a 28p game which means a lot of inertia in terms of moving wagons to the point of being a serious lynch threat. Since my predecessor wasn't actually voting and catching up will take a while, it's correct play to place initial votes quickly imo.

This explanation doesn't make much sense to me. If you think it's hard to move wagons in a big game, adding your vote to the biggest wagon is surely not going to make it easier to pressure new people.

Well, look at what happened since I voted. Pushing the Minimum wagon caused reactions from both heads of the hydra, and also from people defending minimum. This gives us useful content to analyse, and speeds up the process of reaching a consensus on whether the wagon's good or not. So, if we decide the wagon's bad there'll be more time to conside other targets.

So where's your view on this? Where's the analysis? What you had later on this post is not any kind of proper analysis of their alignment.

Mina sounds genuinely frustrated for a wagon that, on her eyes, has reasoning like "you're not obvtowning enough". I've been there enough times (Chrono Trigger Resurrection, Otherworld, late Weather Mafia II) that this feels like something I would post as Town and not as scum in a similar situation, and I have been (rightfully) paranoid about some such townreads.

Sure she's frustrated... but wouldn't she also be frustrated as scum? I'm sure it's very annoying if you happen to draw scum, feel like you are playing a decent game and someone pulls "not obvtown enough" as evidence against you. I do see with your point about paranoia being a typical town reaction when the attacked player feels the reasons for voting are bad, but I don't see why scum could not also make a "you guys all suck" post.

Town frustration isn't nearly the same. The "not obvtown enough" is complete bullshit and tends to draw resignation from town players, whose hands are tied because they don't even know what to change. In addition, she's not making a "you guys all suck" post, unlike what you're saying. Mina criticized a few players in particular, but you're implying she's throwing her hands up in the air and walking away, when this is not what is happening. Her attitude reminds me of my own

and

of hitogoroshi-Town in Ponybash Invitational. We're all players with whom people like to use this kind of tell, and it's frustrating as hell when you're Town because

you're already trying, dammit

, and you can't work miracles if you're not looking Town enough for someone's ridiculous standards while there is blatant scummy play floating around from others. (It's like... it's not the kind of thing in which scum have to look more town than town players to not be lynched, you have to look more town than people's (usually) wrongful perception of your usual-town-look

when you are town to begin with

, and shouldn't have to be concerned about it. It's a stupid burden and I sympathize with her.) It's hard to explain, but the scum reaction is different.

I did say it was difficult to explain. You have to be in that position to know what it feels like, and not many players have this kind of reputation.

Furthermore, CES is a stronger scum player than Mina is. I see no reason why he'd leave her so much in the spotlight if they were trying to guarantee their own survival at this stage.

Your reaction to all this makes me really uncomfortable, though. You're saying that she would do this as scum as well as town. But why is she scum to begin with? Where is she failing that badly to show Town motivation? You're trying to justify a vote by an hypothetical lack of counterarguments, but you don't really have an argument in the first place.

So, greenknight: why are Minimum scum?

[Regfan]

Sorry about my abscene the last two days, finally moved back home and didn't get any internet access last night so woke up early trying to get some done before work. I don't neccesarily agree with all of Mockings points in Post 514 and would have prefered to see her take actual stances on players with reads stated in it but I think the angles that she's discussing with what she's using to back each one up hold quite a lot of weight and comes across as town.

I'm also not seeing anyones scum-read on Pless at all, finding thier scumhunting, lines of questioning and pushing and prodding to be a big town-tell, their attempt to get me to explain my town read on Tierce and then progression to continue to think she's mafia elaborating on their reasoning is very townie even though I think they're wrong on her (Like really really wrong, Zar you should trust me on this read and her defending town-reads is her town-meta). Simiarily I like the way they're trying to get more out of Edd but fairly sure he's town too (His explanation over his paranoia about me actually makes quite a bit of sense so I think you're pushing a dead end now). Got a guttish sort of weak town read on Bvoigts posts so far and liking Jal more too. Nothing stands out as that weird about MoS's play at all, he's generally fairly useless on D1 and enjoys just getting through the day as town, as scum he tends to be a bit more involved and actually follows along much more closely to make sure he doesn't tread on too many toes so while his play here is frustratingly bad I think the chances that he's town are rather high. Also liked Kortuls Post 648, it shows that he's putting some real effort into reading into specifics rather than just coming in and jumping on a wagon which is a big town-tell.

Not a fan at all of Shinoris replacing in posts, the fact that he jumped right away on everyone that was garnering suspicion comes across as off, willing to wait for his dump of information and analysis he's promised soon to judge him completely though. Also have hated Greens posts, about the only thing I agree with him on is that Minas frustration here is what I would expect to come from her as scum and town; she's known for showing frustration when run up as town and from what I know of her he'd be using that angle as scum to try and force town-tell or seem genuine, either way don't think her reaction is a massive tell for either side.

I really didn't like SnowStorms Post 561 and Post 566 at all, both feel forced and come across more of him being annoyed due to caught-for-the-wrong-reason, the fact that he claims to be annoyed at being pushed on while having zero scum reads and pushing on no one else himself makes no sense since Town!SnowStorm should be focusing on re-reading and re-reading and re-reading to find a scum-read but he seems fine having no suspects.

There's a few too many players that have seemed to have faded into the background like Molla now that's making me uncertainish on my town-reads on them, going to need to sit down later today and do a bunch of re-reading and re-analysis on them because right now I can't get a town(s)->(w) order out at the top of my head being confident in it at all which is worrisome.

Also, it just occurred to me Regfan's reasons for trusting him were terrible; they were literally, "Shadow can't be scum, because scum never argue hard against someone's lynch!" Changed my mind. I'll give Shadow

a few more RL days

to look like Innocent Shadow--even if he thinks no one will listen to his precious cases, that doesn't stop him from making them.)

That's not even close to what I said and I know you're not generally the type to purposefully misrepresent someone so interested in hearing whether you skimmed my post and only got a whiff of it or what here. I said that I think his carelessness about attracting attention and the way he's gone about it is a minor town-tell as was his reaction to your wall post, never said it was impossible for him to be scum and it had very minimal to do with him defending against someones lynch.

Can you explain your 'growing confidence' in Plum being town because their last few posts have weakened my town read on them substantially to the point where I want to go re-read them later when I have the spare time to do so. Also want you to point out Snows specific instances of town flashes.

[Plessiezarus]

Why is Post 247 a bad post?

The only people bringing it up have been MoS (for reasons he cannot keep up once questioned about it) and Hascow (who hasn't explained it yet)

. And yes, there are reasons for choosing someone you think is a bad lynch, namely that you're putting a vig choice in their hands. I've explained this, Regfan has explained this, this isn't rocket surgery.

The underlined isn't actually true (but I'm only saying this since sniping from the sidelines is so fun). In any case, the number of people bringing it up so far isn't really relevant to whether or not Zar and I find it to be a bad post.

As for defending townreads, Regfan has already touched on this. Yes, I defend townreads. A lot. Won't bother linking--basically, check any and all of my games. As I've said, I'm a better townhunter than scumhunter, so watching how people interact with my townreads and how they make points against them is a good way for me to get later reads.

This still doesn't quite feel like what you're doing with Edd though . (Had a skim through day 1 of Weather Mafia II and your town-defending in that game seems different to what you're doing here. Perhaps that's mainly because the person you seem to spend the most time defending in that game, BBmolla, is somebody you then flip completely on and push to be lynched .) I guess if enough people who've seen you play insist this fits your town meta I'll have to accept that I'm wrong, but

I don't like admitting I'm wrong

it's still bothering me for now.

Anyway, might have a longer response to this once I've had a chance to talk things over with Zar.

Shinori and redFF: still doing nothing. Votes plz.

I agree with the Totally Anonymous Head of the furry critter re: Shinori and redFF. Town guns pointed this way please and thank you.

You aren't actually voting for either of them yourself though ...

We think that redFF is a much better choice to be lynched than Shinori. I don't know enough about him to know if he's a sensible choice to choose, though, and I'm still happiest with our vote on SnowStorm. If people think redFF is a poor person to give a strongman vig-shot to, I wouldn't mind voting for redFF and choosing SnowStorm. SnowStorm hasn't offered much in the way of reads, but I at least agree with the few town-reads he's come up with.

I also agree with people who are suggesting switching Shadow1psc and Minimum as lynch/choose options. I don't think either are ideal, but I'd trust either Mina or CES with a vig-shot more than Shadow1psc after reading Post 419.

@Minimum

: I'd actually prefer to see more bitchiness and self-pitying instead of telling us how you could have/were going to be moreso. Being a bitch and sore about yourself can come across as very genuine and sometimes town-like.

... and in any case, those posts are always fun to read .

[Plessiezarus]

*sigh* Knew I'd mess up sooner or later. Obviously (or not?) Post 669 is me, not Zar.

~ Pless

[MagnaofIllusion]

I guess if enough people who've seen you play insist this fits your town meta I'll have to accept that I'm wrong, but I don't like admitting I'm wrong it's still bothering me for now.

Tierce if fully cognizant of her own meta (both Town and scum) therefore giving her a read based on "Town Tierce does this" or "Scum Tierce doesn't do this" is going to be completely useless. Don't listen to meta-reads from other players in that regard.

[Tyene Sand]

Why is Post 247 a bad post?

The only people bringing it up have been MoS (for reasons he cannot keep up once questioned about it) and Hascow (who hasn't explained it yet)

. And yes, there are reasons for choosing someone you think is a bad lynch, namely that you're putting a vig choice in their hands. I've explained this, Regfan has explained this, this isn't rocket surgery.

The underlined isn't actually true (but I'm only saying this since sniping from the sidelines is so fun). In any case, the number of people bringing it up so far isn't really relevant to whether or not Zar and I find it to be a bad post.

My bad, I

try to block out everything MoI says

forgot that. And I answered that then; my view on why Choosing is different from Lynching hasn't changed and I won't change my view on theory because you disagree.

As for defending townreads, Regfan has already touched on this. Yes, I defend townreads. A lot. Won't bother linking--basically, check any and all of my games. As I've said, I'm a better townhunter than scumhunter, so watching how people interact with my townreads and how they make points against them is a good way for me to get later reads.

This still doesn't quite feel like what you're doing with Edd though . (Had a skim through day 1 of Weather Mafia II and your town-defending in that game seems different to what you're doing here. Perhaps that's mainly because the person you seem to spend the most time defending in that game, BBmolla, is somebody you then flip completely on and push to be lynched .) I guess if enough people who've seen you play insist this fits your town meta I'll have to accept that I'm wrong, but

I don't like admitting I'm wrong

it's still bothering me for now.

What's happening with Edd is that I keep seeing points that make me think they are town and I keep bringing them up. I should probably save them for when/if he ever gets decently run-up, but I've never been up to conceal the reasons for my townreads, I'm pretty transparent about that.

Shinori and redFF: still doing nothing. Votes plz.

I agree with the Totally Anonymous Head of the furry critter re: Shinori and redFF. Town guns pointed this way please and thank you.

You aren't actually voting for either of them yourself though ...

I'm not, I still have to recheck MoS and I have a scumread on SnowStorm--I'm saying who I'd like to see vigged if the Chosen is Town or we have other killing powers in the hands of Town. This game needs a real purge through the playerlist and I don't have a handful of votes to apply liberally and get them lynched all at once.

I also agree with people who are suggesting switching Shadow1psc and Minimum as lynch/choose options. I don't think either are ideal, but I'd trust either Mina or CES with a vig-shot more than Shadow1psc after reading Post 419.

I don't get this. You were criticizing me for my lynch/choosing theory (that is, you pick a good player who is a scumread to get Chosen and Lynch the chaff) but now seem to have a similar logic. What

is

the problem with Post 247, then?


PEdit: You also know me to be incapable of decently changing my scum meta around, so, huh, whatever. I like subverting my meta as scum, I admit, but there are core aspects that I can't change, not because I don't want to (oh god trust tells please no) but because I'm hardly spectacular as scum. :3

[Minimum]

Tierce, you should Choose redFF. And the best way to read MoS is to wait for him to get nightkilled.

[redFF]

[/b]@mod
I have to replace out. Sorry but I haven't caught up yet and I'm going to be very busy over the next week too so likely won't be able to give such a fast moving game, that I'm already behind in, the attention it deserves, probably shouldn't have /inned but I was pre-in and excited. Sorry again.