A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!


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Post Post #1050 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:05 am

Post by Eddard Stark »

The Ruby Ford is a crossing of the Green Fork of the Trident in the Riverlands. It is so named for the rubies that were knocked from Prince Rhaegar Targaryen's breastplate during the Battle of the Trident.A large, three-story inn with pale stone walls lies near the ford. There is no crossing of the Green Fork north of it until the Twins.


Day 1, Votecount 35

SnowStorm (3) - Regfan, Feysal, Shinori
Minimum (2) - Salamence20, Hasdgfas
Salamence20 (5) - Amrun, Minimum, bvoigt, Mastermind of Sin, Shadow1psc
Feysal (1) - Starbuck
Shinori (1) - Staeg
Shadow1psc (2) - StefanB, Lyanna Stark
bvoigt (7) - Plum's Yo Mamma, greenknight, SnowStorm, Dolorous Edd, Tyene Sand, Pandora, MagnaofIllusion

Jal (2) - DCLXVI, Benmage

Not Voting (5):
Mockingjaye, BBmolla, kortul, Plessiezrus, Jal

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

  • Deadline
    : 3rd September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  • Countdown to deadline
    : (expired on 2012-09-03 18:59:59)
  • MJ may be V/la for a hurricane.




CHOOSE BOREDOM

Tyene Sand (1) - Feysal
Dolorous Edd (2) - hasdgfas, Jal
Feysal (8) - Salamence20, Bvoigt, greenknight, Shinori, Mastermind of Sin, DCLXVI, Dolorous Edd, Benmage

Hasdgfas (1) - Shadow1psc
Minimum (4) - Regfan, StefanB, Lyanna Stark, MagnaofIllusion
Starbuck (2) - Starbuck, Staeg
Shadow1psc (1) - Mockingjaye
greenknight (6) - Plum's Yo Mamma, Minimum, Tyene Sand, Pandora, Plessiezarus, BBmolla

Not Choosing (3):
kortul, Amrun, SnowStorm

With 28 alive it takes 15 to 'Choose'. Once a choose has 15 votes it will be locked in but not end day.


ANY MISTAKES MAY BE POINTED OUT.
Last edited by Eddard Stark on Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #1051 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:07 am

Post by Jal »

Just a few things at the top of my head while I have some time:

- I'm going to believe Snow's claim. I've noticed there hasn't really been a lot of opposition to Snow's wagon, at least not
strong
opposition. Even if this game is multiball and Snow would have few teammates, I at least would except a decent counter-wagon or argument at the very least. Instead, Snow's wagon seems to have grown as a counter-wagon of its own. I don't think Snow's mason buddy should claim, at least not now. No point right now, unless the other is being ran up.

- I'm a bit skeptical of the "support" I got when a few votes got on me. Maybe it's because in many games I've had scum buddy up to me in many games and throw a town read at me (maybe it's because I'm one of those ones who'll defend a town read to hell and back) but it seemed odd, and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those individuals is scum.

- I need to re-read the last 9 pages more in-depth before I put a vote back down.

Benmage: When did Jal Shinori and Kortul's become the 3 people to vote between?
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Post Post #1052 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:12 am

Post by Benmage »

Find the scum on the Snow wagon for me.
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Post Post #1053 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:27 am

Post by DCLXVI »

In post 1039, Benmage wrote:Fuckit

Unvote Vote JAL


ALL ABOARD



Oh please, and you were just going after me for being on a "useless" wagon.
Sarcasm is
not
a scumtell.
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Post Post #1054 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:41 am

Post by Benmage »

In post 1053, DCLXVI wrote:
In post 1039, Benmage wrote:Fuckit

Unvote Vote JAL


ALL ABOARD



Oh please, and you were just going after me for being on a "useless" wagon.

Where is your point in this statement?

How come you refuse to be able to give a reason for your voting Jal?? THIS IS ME ASKING FOR THE THIRD TIME FOR REASONING.
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Post Post #1055 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:42 am

Post by Shadow1psc »

In post 1053, DCLXVI wrote:Oh please, and you were just going after me for being on a "useless" wagon.


Don't try to make sense of Benmage, it's futile.
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Post Post #1056 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:43 am

Post by Benmage »

In post 1055, Shadow1psc wrote:
In post 1053, DCLXVI wrote:Oh please, and you were just going after me for being on a "useless" wagon.


Don't try to make sense of Benmage, it's futile.

Are u guys fucking retarded.

Prior to Snows mason claim he was the only viable wagon. Hence DC's vote was useless... on a nonplausible wagon.

DO YOU NOT FOLLOW CHANGE OF EVENTS.... since Snow is a mason... other previously non viable wagons are now viable...

w.t.f subjective reading ftl.
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Post Post #1057 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:26 am

Post by Tyene Sand »

Hey Benmage, .
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Post Post #1058 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:38 am

Post by Benmage »

unvote vote Bvoigt
blood it is again.
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Post Post #1059 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:05 am

Post by Tyene Sand »

There's scum hiding against my magical townreads and this is pissing me off--I literally have townreads on 8/10+ of that SnowStorm wagon, but I also have trouble believing that scum would stay off such a juicy wagon for so long. In addition, if this is multiball, my "is scumhunting y/n" reads get shot to hell and back. Regardless, I am not about to start a wagon on a
frigging townread
at this stage in the Day. Honestly I'm not even sure how I'd start to go about de-confirmation-biasing myself with this set. I'm ready for a Night and seeing what happens then.

I also haven't slept in about 24h, so MS is going into the backburner until I take care of myself--food and sleep are priorities. Lynching scum is a veeery distant third at present.
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Post Post #1060 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:11 am

Post by Tyene Sand »

...also, wtf typo.

"There's scum hiding
in
my magical townreads
[...]
"
Going on vacation this summer? Choose Sand! Choose beautiful women! Choose questionable rebellion! Choose Areo Hotah's boring POVs! Choose Darkstar! Choose Alleras the Sphynx! Choose Vengeance. Justice. Fire and Blood. (That will fail.)
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Post Post #1061 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:21 am

Post by BBmolla »

Bvoigt wagon is bad and you should feel bad
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Post Post #1062 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:21 am

Post by BBmolla »

VOTE: Salamence
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Post Post #1063 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:31 am

Post by Minimum »

(Making this two posts for readability.)

I actually did have RL things keeping me away from the game on Tuesday and Wednesday, for the record. I let CES know, but I thought it would be silly to announce it in the thread when my slot would still be posting actively.

Currently having
(was having when I started writing this post hours ago) an AIM board meeting, because we disagree on a few of our scum reads. I agree with those who find it much easier to clear wide swathes of people than pick out scum this game (and feel like I'm overlooking
someone
). I looked at the player list and realized there were only twelve people I didn't think looked particularly town. Only significant update: I'm now pretty confident that Dolorous Edd is town. (SnowStorm too, but given his claim, I don't get points for that.) I buy mockingjaye's explanation of her approach to the game, and am leaning town on her even if I disagree with the kinds of things she finds scummy.

That said, people keep saying, "Salamence20 is a bad wagon, because Salamence is a VI and therefore an easy lynch." I (Mina) have personally never played with Salamence (although I'll look at KH myself today). But some weaker players are very readable. Sell me on him being town. (Actually, sell CES on him being town, because he's a lot more stubborn when it comes to moving our vote. <_<) Meta defence along the lines of "he played similarly to this in X game" is fine, just not "his meta is to be a VI." (I don't agree with Tyene that his copy-and-pasted suspect list is a towntell, but I'll admit I have a couple of doubts: mostly on the "MoI would vig me if he was Chosen" being so bad it's
good
, my liking the players on bvoigt's wagon a lot more than his, and my impression of Sal's OTT post being closer to Benmage's than to...um...Minimum's.)
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Post Post #1064 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:41 am

Post by Minimum »

Benmage:


Overall, I've liked his stream-of-consciousness catch-up posts, and feel like all the indecision, wagon-hopping, and "FMLs" are real--I'm more confident that this is town!Benmage than I did, say, in AFFC. That said...um...I feel like I'm missing something. Is the reason you went from calling us scum to town literally this? That CES is being too lazy to be scum, or that CES called Reck uncool?

hasdgfas


All right. Since I've realized that Edd has become kind of obviously town, you can officially no longer get away with saying, "Yeah, Minimum and Edd are caught scum on page 2. Let's lynch them. *sits on hands for the next thirty pages*"

I understand why you didn't explain your reasons at the time, but now I'd like to know--what gave you your initial scum read on Edd and Minimum? Your vote and Choose haven't changed all game. Why have you neither reconsidered either of these reads nor followed up on them in any way (either by questioning them or by hounding more people onto their wagons)?

Is Shadow your top scum read right now? What are your reasons for having neither voted nor chosen him at any point?

Also, this bugs me (partly gut, partly because I dislike most "Oh, I'll compromise with the majority" posts):
Looking at the vote/Choose counts, the main places to look now are SnowStorm, Salamence, Feysal, greenknight, correct?

Do you believe that the point at which you made this post that no options but those four were viable? Why didn't you suggest another option in this post, or seem remotely perturbed that Minimum, Dolorous Edd, and Shadow weren't among these four?

I'd be interested in hearing your reads on the four players you've mentioned. Really, a glimpse of where you stand (such as an overall reads list) would be good, too.


Regfan:

Spoiler: Because this is too long, and of little interest to someone who isn't Regfan.
In post 668, Regfan wrote:That's not even close to what I said and I know you're not generally the type to purposefully misrepresent someone so interested in hearing whether you skimmed my post and only got a whiff of it or what here. I said that I think his carelessness about attracting attention and the way he's gone about it is a minor town-tell as was his reaction to your wall post, never said it was impossible for him to be scum and it had very minimal to do with him defending against someones lynch.

All right, I ISO'd you, and I concede that I was wrong--what stuck most in my mind afterwards was the argument that Shadow's motivations for defending me didn't make sense for scum, so it's that I remembered a couple of days later when I was starting to become more suspicious of Shadow. I still disagree with this, though (which literally just boils down to "scum wouldn't defend someone in multiball"):
plus don't think Shadow!Scum would protect Mina!Scum if they were partners and don't think he'd defend her if she was town as it'd just be increasing the odds of the lynch being moved to him or him being run up if she flips scum.

Also, didn't Shadow call plenty of attention to himself in AFFC?

Can you explain your 'growing confidence' in Plum being town because their last few posts have weakened my town read on them substantially to the point where I want to go re-read them later when I have the spare time to do so. Also want you to point out Snows specific instances of town flashes.

I feel like we're reading completely different threads if you thought Plum's Your Mamma looked scummier later on than in the beginning. But I thought Nacho's posting felt pretty town (particularly his reaction to being accused of attacking easy targets, his wanting a strong bandwagon, his interactions with Shadow, his backing away from a scum read of us earlier than they had to). I thought it was blatantly obvious that the SnowStorm posts I'd linked to were ones I'd found genuine, but to be more specific:
I really can't see how anyone would do this play as scum. I know I'm very far from looking town, but scum? You're not just accusing me of being scum, you're accusing me of being stupid-scum. According to all of you I just keep digging myself deeper with each post; everything I do is scummy, everything I don't do is scummy. This is starting to get ridiculous.

Maybe I recognized myself in some of his reactions, but it just read as a townie with a clean conscience who felt like he'd be tunneled on no matter what he'd say, particularly with his "I'm laughing so hard at this" follow-up to Tyene turning around and calling that post scummy. There are other posts that only reinforced this read (stances that seemed thought out, anger that looked like town anger), but given that he's claimed mason, this is a waste of time. When the thread is this huge, though, I tend to play more by gut feel and overall impressions of someone's play, because more of the details and subtleties (like "in game 87.634 on Westeros, SnowStorm made a case on House Manderly that was completely different from the case he made on Jal") don't stick in my mind.

By the way, I was serious about wanting an answer to this:

In post 643, Minimum wrote:The few scum reads are incredibly weak right now. Something feels off about Minimum but I can't pin-point what exactly, if I had to specify it's probably a lack of town reads stated by them or reads at all though willing to give them time
to convince me I'm just mad at Mina for picking CES over me to hydra with.
.

You posted this on Page 4 of the game. Our most recent post at that point was on page
two
. Did you seriously expect us to state town reads at that point?


Pretty sure I've missed a few questions, so repeat them if you actually want an answer to them.
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Post Post #1065 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:46 am

Post by Shadow1psc »

Ladies and gentleman, Minatown.
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Post Post #1066 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:54 am

Post by hasdgfas »

Minimum wrote:Also, this bugs me (partly gut, partly because I dislike most "Oh, I'll compromise with the majority" posts):
Looking at the vote/Choose counts, the main places to look now are SnowStorm, Salamence, Feysal, greenknight, correct?

Do you believe that the point at which you made this post that no options but those four were viable? Why didn't you suggest another option in this post, or seem remotely perturbed that Minimum, Dolorous Edd, and Shadow weren't among these four?


That was not a "who should I vote for?", but "who should I read up on?". It was not an "I'm going to sheep one of the big wagons", it was "what are the big wagons I should look at to determine my thoughts on?", which is why it was worded the way it was.

To answer the rest of your questions:

MOD: Please replace me. I do not have the time to give this game what it deserves and I'm not happy with my play/contributions.



Kill shadow soon. kthnxbye.
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Post Post #1067 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:13 am

Post by Benmage »

In post 1064, Minimum wrote: Is the reason you went from calling us scum to town literally this? That CES is being too lazy to be scum, or that CES called Reck uncool?

That reck is a douche who would say I'm being to lazy to be scum while being scum... and CES isn't a douche. But yes.
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Post Post #1068 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:23 am

Post by Minimum »

Cow, I don't suppose you could explain your vote and choose...
before
replacing out, could you? It doesn't require any extra work or reading from you, just "here is why I found this scummy on page two."

Shadow, how were those posts of mine any more town than any other posts I've made this game?
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Post Post #1069 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:26 am

Post by Shadow1psc »

In post 1068, Minimum wrote:Cow, I don't suppose you could explain your vote and choose...
before
replacing out, could you? It doesn't require any extra work or reading from you, just "here is why I found this scummy on page two."

Shadow, how were those posts of mine any more town than any other posts I've made this game?


Did I say they weren't?
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Post Post #1070 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:27 am

Post by Eddard Stark »

Searching for a hasdgfas replacement
War has arrived!

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Post Post #1071 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:27 am

Post by Shadow1psc »

Hint: I said this way long ago.

In post 324, Shadow1psc wrote:We're not lynching Hydrina or choosing them today.
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Post Post #1072 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:29 am

Post by Minimum »

(That said, I'm sorry if my post was what tipped you over into replacing out. I just wanted to see more of your thought process.)

Shadow...are you saying you said we shouldn't lynch Minimum because you had a strong town read on me at that point of the game?

What exactly makes you so confident that I'm town?
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Post Post #1073 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:31 am

Post by kortul »

Ok, finished my ISO on
bvoigt
. He is definitely not my town read, but i am not convinced that he is scum. I agree with some of his thoughts, disagree with some.

Spoiler: Things i don't like
In post 510, bvoigt wrote:
In post 224, Feysal wrote:
In post 75, Starbuck wrote:I don't understand how everyone is so sure that scum would shoot another scum. It's being said like it is fact and that it will definitely happen that way. I don't believe it will, so while my opinion on it is unpopular (look at all the people who have hopped on my bandwagon to prove that point), I don't believe that it is wrong or scummy.

This post has already been torn to shreds by others, but it serves to highlight how Starbuck does not seem to be reading the same game we are. I cannot trace her thoughts at all, and I don't understand how anyone could have a town read on her.

She has seemed confused so far, but you seem to be implying that it's a scumtell. That doesn't make sense to me.
That's misrepresentation based on a logical fallacy - Feysal states that he doesn't understand Starbuck thoughts and how people have a town read on her, that doesn't imply the opposite, that he sees the post as scumtell.

In post 611, bvoigt wrote:
In post 541, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 535, bvoigt wrote:Though I see why you thought I was fencesitting on your post, that wasn't my intention. I think it was a scummy post.

Good. Please elaborate on what was scummy specifically in terms of scum motivation.

I think the motivation was to "manufacture," if you will, a towntell. Again, there's no direct scum motivation to selfchoose. But the way that you pointed out that scum wouldn't want to do it as soon as someone questioned you makes me think that it was a move deliberately calculated to get towncred.
MoI actually gave a reasonable explanation in the post 125. So, him asking in the same post about possible scum motivation looks natural to me. If bvoigt views this as a calculated attempt to get a towncred, the logical thing to do would be call the bluff and CHOOSE MoI.
Also, i don't agree with his scumreads on MoI and Feysal, especially after his
In post 957, bvoigt wrote:3. Yes, Sala is the only case I've really pushed in this game, because he's by far my strongest scumread, and MoI and Feysal haven't really done enough scummy things that I could make a full case on them.

Still, disagreement in reads isn't a scum tell, so now i have a dilemma. I view Salamance20 as more scummy than bvoigt, but i don't like the company on his wagon (only Minimum is ok and Amrun null). Most of those who i believe are town are either on bvoigt or somewhere else.

Can those who vote bvoigt explain,
why he is more scummy than Salamance20 (or why Salamance20 is town for you, if that's the case)? If this is meta based, are there clear examples of bvoigt!scum or Salamance!town that you can link to?
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Post Post #1074 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:36 am

Post by kortul »

Finished ISO on
Feysal
as well, to be sure whether i agree with bvoigt opinion on him. He remained my weak town read. While reading i was agreeing with many of his thoughts and some reads, liked his post 47, most of content in post 448. There were no scum or strong town tells for me, but his playing style is similar to mine, his reads are naturally developing as the game progresses. I don't see why he gathered so many CHOOSE votes.

I am definitely not Choosing him, so will continue with ISO on greenknight and Shadow1psc.

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