A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

Zdenek · Post Post #2425 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:30 am

Tammy might be scum because of http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4298801 there were nice wagons on Bvoigt and Salamance at the time.

Zdenek · Post Post #2426 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:39 am

Although, my gut on Tammy screams town, so probably I'll ignore that for now.

Although, rereading my gut makes me think that Mockingjaye was town, and I think that the fact that she works as a member of both scum teams is just as attributable to her lack of activity as the possibility that she's scum.

Tyene Sand · Post Post #2427 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:42 am

Greyscaling someone because they are playing their role badly is a stupid idea. I love Justice wagons, but they don't catch scum.

And I still haven't looked more carefully at this game. fffff okay will try and do that today.

Scumhunter is trolling and those of you who believe the Jaime Lannister claim are, well, being trolled.

At a first glance, I don't like any of the present wagons. I need to really pay attention to this game.

Probably

after the concerts today. >.>

Tyene Sand · Post Post #2428 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:45 am

In post 2423, Lyanna Stark wrote:Post 252 makes me a little paranoid of Tyene along with has's commenton Post 264

Explain. Because it makes no sense for you to say these posts make you paranoid when you then say I'm not aligned with the Stannis faction (redFF/DCLXVI).

Zdenek · Post Post #2429 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 3:28 am

So I've read back over day one.

So many people were defending scum at the end of day one, I don't really know what to say about it. Probably it's best to generally forgive them, but keep it in mind.

If we forgive Benmage for defending scum, he comes across as rather townie at the end of day one.

I'm also pretty much convinced that Regfan is scum.

Minimum is probably not a reasonable lynch today.

I see that Kortul has put in a lot of work at various times during the game. That's pretty townie.

MockingJaye's 1274 is bad.

Tammy started off looking strongly town, but that read diminished by the end of the day.

If Feysal is scum, I agree with plumamma that he is Stannis scum. PoE makes Feysal pretty likely scum.

Because of interactions with flipped scum, I don't think that scum hunter is a reasonable lynch today.

BBMolla's "the aegon faction is split up" could be an attempt at in game communication with the other group and his play could easily make him scum.

I really don't understand the town reads on Hascow and Magua could easily be scum.

So let's see:

Anxiety is an acceptable lynch, primarily because of MockingJaye's 1274.

I'd back a Feysal, bbmolla or Magua lynch.

Optimal lynches would be Sands and MoS.

I don't see myself voting outside of those 6 today.

Regfan · Post Post #2430 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:56 am

Tierce, don't see what you mean about Scumhunters Jaime claim being 'trolling' at all. Think it's his legitimate claim.

Zdenek, if you're pretty convinced that I'm scum why am I not in your 'preferred list of votes'.

Zdenek · Post Post #2431 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:02 am

Oops, I meant I'm pretty convinced that Regfan is town.

Also, reading Saporient's claim, I suspect that their scum team probably consists of people who are inactive or fairly weak because of the failure to come up with at least a reasonable claim for their question to the mod.

4nxi3ty · Post Post #2432 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:06 am

In post 2345, Plums Yo Mamma wrote:jal is town

In post 2339, Plums Yo Mamma wrote:4nxiety can die the death but I love that kid so much that i can't let him die it quite yet

In post 2415, Plums Yo Mamma wrote:

4nxi3ty wrote:If one of my scumreads ended up in a 1v1, I would've had something to say about it. Your lack of comment on sapo during the trial by combat bothers me.

is a really good point

so I am not so happy lynching 4nxi3ty today

In post 2304, Magua wrote:

Jal
- Revised reading heavily townwards. Scum do not, as a rule, go after what is essentially a confirmed town, painting a big ol' target on their back while everyone else stands around and says, "Look at what that Jal is doing, that's so
scummy
!" Scum know Staeg's not on their team, no need to stir up trouble or attract notice, just go along with things and take care of Edd that Night. Jal does pretty much zero of these things. Newbie scum is like this but twice as much so.

hmm I thought Jal's interaction with Edd was suspect. Her comment about Edd being town doesn't fit in with how she treated him throughout the game. Despite calling him scummy multiple times only votes Edd in very first post. Once again, she avoids talking about him during the trial by combat.

what is your take on nacho's recent post?

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2433 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:04 am

Spoiler: Day 1 Major Wagons (in sequence)

In post 77, Eddard Stark wrote:Starbuck (7) -
Dolorous Edd
, Tyene Sand
Staeg
, Minimum, Plum's Yo Mamma, Feysal, redFF

In post 302, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (4) -
Dolorous Edd
,
Salamence20
,
StefanB
, BBmolla
Minimum (4) - Pandora, Regfan, Tyene Sand, Plum's Yo Mamma

In post 383, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (5) -
Dolorous Edd
,
Salamence20
,
StefanB
, BBmolla, Pandora
Minimum (3) - Regfan, Tyene Sand, Plum's Yo Mamma

In post 552, Eddard Stark wrote:
Shadow1psc
(6) - BBmolla,
StefanB
,
MagnaofIllusion
, Plum's Yo Mamma, Benmage, Mastermind of Sin

In post 652, Eddard Stark wrote:Minimum (8) -
MagnaofIllusion
,
Salamence20
, Hasdgfas, Lyanna Stark,
StefanB
, Benmage,
greenknight
, Shinori

In post 728, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (5) -
Dolorous Edd
,
Salamence20
,
bvoigt
,
greenknight
, Shinori

Shadow1psc
(4) - BBmolla,
MagnaofIllusion
, Plum's Yo Mamma, Mastermind of Sin

In post 925, Eddard Stark wrote:
SnowStorm
(10) -
Plessiezarus
, Regfan, Tyene Sand, Feysal, Jal, Shinori,
MagnaofIllusion
, Pandora, BBmolla, kortul

Salamence20
(5) - Amrun, Minimum,
bvoigt
, Mastermind of Sin,
Shadow1psc

In post 1010, Eddard Stark wrote:
SnowStorm
(5) - Regfan, Feysal, Jal, Shinori,
MagnaofIllusion

Salamence20
(5) - Amrun, Minimum,
bvoigt
, Mastermind of Sin,
Shadow1psc

bvoigt
(7) - Plum's Yo Mamma,
greenknight
,
SnowStorm
,
Dolorous Edd
, Benmage, Tyene Sand, Pandora

In post 1010, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (8) -
Salamence20
,
bvoigt
,
greenknight
, Shinori, Mastermind of Sin,
DCLXVI
,
Dolorous Edd
, Benmage

greenknight
(6) - Plum's Yo Mamma, Minimum, Tyene Sand, Pandora,
Plessiezarus
, BBmolla

In post 1182, Eddard Stark wrote:
Saporerint
(8) - Minimum,
bvoigt
, Mastermind of Sin,
Shadow1psc
, BBmolla, Shinori, Regfan, Albert B. Rampage

bvoigt
(10) - Plum's Yo Mamma,
greenknight
,
SnowStorm
,
Dolorous Edd
, Tyene Sand, Pandora,
MagnaofIllusion
, Seraphim,
StefanB
, kortul

In post 1182, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (10) -
Saporerint
,
bvoigt
,
greenknight
, Shinori,
DCLXVI
,
Dolorous Edd
, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage, Pandora,
SnowStorm

greenknight
(9) - Plum's Yo Mamma, Minimum, Tyene Sand,
Plessiezarus
, kortul, Seraphim,
MagnaofIllusion
, Regfan, Feysal

In post 1282, Eddard Stark wrote:
Saporerint
(6) -
bvoigt
, Mastermind of Sin,
Shadow1psc
, BBmolla, Shinori, Albert B. Rampag

Shadow1psc
(8) - Lyanna Stark, Benmage, kortul, Minimum,
Dolorous Edd
,
Saporerint
, Mockingjaye, Plums Yo Mamma

bvoigt
(8) -
greenknight
,
SnowStorm
, Tyene Sand, Pandora,
MagnaofIllusion
, Seraphim,
StefanB
,
Plessiezarus

In post 1282, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (9) -
bvoigt
,
greenknight
, Shinori,
DCLXVI
, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage,
SnowStorm
,
Dolorous Edd
,
Saporerint

DCLXVI
(9) - Tyene Sand,
Plessiezarus
, Minimum, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma

In post 1301, Eddard Stark wrote:
Saporerint
(5) - Mastermind of Sin,
Shadow1psc
, BBmolla, Shinori, Albert B. Rampage

Shadow1psc
(13) - Lyanna Stark, Benmage, kortul, Minimum,
Dolorous Edd
,
Saporerint
, Mockingjaye, Plums Yo Mamma,
Staeg
,
MagnaofIllusion
,
bvoigt
, Tyene Sand,
StefanB

bvoigt
(5) -
greenknight
,
SnowStorm
, Pandora, Seraphim,
Plessiezarus

In post 1301, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (8) -
bvoigt
,
greenknight
, Shinori,
DCLXVI
, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage,
SnowStorm
,
Saporerint

DCLXVI
(12) - Tyene Sand,
Plessiezarus
, Minimum, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma,
Staeg
,
Dolorous Edd
,
StefanB

In post 1407, Eddard Stark wrote:
Shadow1psc
(2) - Mockingjaye,
bvoigt

bvoigt
(9) -
greenknight
,
SnowStorm
, Pandora, Seraphim,
Plessiezarus
,
MagnaofIllusion
, Plums Yo Mamma,
Dolorous Edd
,
Staeg

In post 1471, Eddard Stark wrote:Feysal (7) -
greenknight
, Shinori, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage,
Saporerint
, Mastermind of Sin, Jal

DCLXVI
(15) - Tyene Sand,
Plessiezarus
, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma,
Staeg
,
Dolorous Edd
,
SnowStorm
,
Shadow1psc
,
bvoigt
,
DCLXVI
,
MagnaofIllusion

In post 1558, Eddard Stark wrote:
bvoigt
(8) -
SnowStorm
, Seraphim, Plums Yo Mamma,
Dolorous Edd
, Shinori, Feysal,
Shadow1psc
, Minimum

StefanB
(15) - Regfan, Tyene Sand,
Saporerint
, kortul,
DCLXVI
,
bvoigt
,
Staeg
, Mockingjaye,
MagnaofIllusion
,
greenknight
, BBmolla, Pandora, Jal, Lyanna Stark,
Plessiezarus

There's a LOT of information here, especially with both votes and chooses going on at the same time. I'm going to try to decipher this by assigning positive and negative points to players based on various voting actions they took in relation to our flipped scum.

Spoiler: Point Assignment

You can skip to the summary below if you don't want to read through the gritty details, but I've included them above for the curious. It's not a perfect system, but we'll see how it ends up.

Spoiler: Points Summary (Negative is scummier)

Conclusions from Day 1:

Feysal is town, based on the chooses in post 1182.

Mockingjaye looks bad for being left voting Shadow with bvoigt by herself.

Zdenek and Minimum are almost definitely not

Aegon

faction.

Our remaining

Aegon scum

are most likely in this group:

Tammy, kortul, 4nxiety, BBmolla, Jal, Pandora, Regfan

At least one

Stannis scum

is in this group:

Benmage, Magua, Shinori

(obviously I know it's not me)

I'm going to go back and look more closely at the ISOs of the players listed above to see if I can narrow it down a bit more.

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2434 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:31 am

I forgot about one major thing for the points assignment...oops. (Also forgot to put BBmolla and Mockingjaye on one of the summary lists, lol...)

Spoiler: Point Assignment

Spoiler: Points Summary (Negative is scummier)

Adjusted Conclusions:

Aegon Faction

possible:

Tammy, kortul, 4nxiety, BBmolla, Pandora, Regfan, Jal, Tierce

Stannis Faction

possible:

Benmage, Shinori, BBmolla, Magua, 4nxiety

Off for lunch, then back for individual looks at these players.

Lyanna Stark · Post Post #2435 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 6:54 am

In post 2425, Zdenek wrote:Tammy might be scum because of http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4298801 there were nice wagons on Bvoigt and Salamance at the time.

Yeah in retrospect I should have realized that bvoigt's interaction with me was light buddying or at least an attempt to be different enough with me to affect my read. He spent weeks calling me scum int he game we had just ended when he was scum, and that was my only experience with bvoigt before this game. I have a really hard time reading people in that situation. I drove the people in experimental mafia crazy when I fence sat and waxed wafflelicious over havingfitz after a similar situation.

Thinking about bvoigt though there's something that is bothering me. What do you make of bvoigt's change of read on sala? He was pushing for a Sala lynch, but then Sapo replaces in and started pushing really hard on the idea that bvoigt is town. Bvoigt then changed his read on that slot. Do you think that makes it more likely that Aegon don't know each other?

Lyanna Stark · Post Post #2436 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:14 am

In post 2428, Tyene Sand wrote:
In post 2423, Lyanna Stark wrote:Post 252 makes me a little paranoid of Tyene along with has's commenton Post 264
Explain. Because it makes no sense for you to say these posts make you paranoid when you then say I'm not aligned with the Stannis faction (redFF/DCLXVI).

It's paranoia, don't really know how that can be explained. Saying this post makes me paranoid is different than this post makes me doubt my read. It's just something I need to come back to and deal with.

Lyanna Stark · Post Post #2437 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:24 am

So MoS according to your points system, people are being rewarded with townie points for potential bussing? Like bvoigt spent a good portion of day one voting for his partner Sala, which would make him unlikely to be Aegon aligned according to your system. Like for instance I don't think I should be removed from the possible Stannis faction because I ended up choosing dcl because I could have easily done that as his partner. I should be removed from that because of the way dcl interacted/responded to me.

What do you make of the possibility that Aegon don't know each other?

BBmolla · Post Post #2438 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:57 am

Forgive me if I doubt the usefulness of your method for obvious reasons MoS.

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2439 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:59 am

It's not a perfect system (and I've never tried it before, just made it up today lol), but that's why I awarded more points based on how/when people voted scum. For the record, bvoigt would have scored a -2 overall just based off the information of Sapo being Aegon scum, I believe. Sapo would have scored a -4 for being scum with bvoigt. I'm not really sure how that would stack up against other players, since those scores were calculated against both scum, but I imagine that both of them (Sapo almost certainly) would be in the upper echelon of Aegon scum.

However, I'm not sure why you question why bvoigt would have gotten some positive points for voting Sapo and then turn around and bring up the fact that they might not have known they were scumbuddies. Those points seem contrary to each other.

Regardless, the points system is just a guideline for further analysis, it's not the end result. I'm still working on my continuation post.

P-Edit: BBmolla that's because you suck at this game.

Lyanna Stark · Post Post #2440 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:21 am

Not really. In one instance, the bvoigt points, I'm looking at your system as it stands and using bvoigt as an example as he's the only known scum we have who voted for his partner.

In the second instance, the Aegon faction maybe not knowing each other, I'm asking for your opinion on the situation as it definitely isn't a certainty. If you do believe it's a possibility, then what impact would that have on your points system?

Do you think that bvoigt's changing attitude to the sala/sapo slot makes it more likely they don't know each other?

Also, when looking at the potential Aegon aligned, look at how sala treats some of the people you suspect. He's only played scum once before and I think he would be too nervous to interact with his partners too much, so think that because he was informed and more likely knew the Aegon faction if others don't, his interactions could definitely be taken into account. So for instance he barely interacted with bvoigt even though he had made a case on him, but kept harping on BB finding him suspicious. I think that makes it less likely that BB is Aegon aligned.

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2441 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:35 am

So, I started out doing ISOs and then I got lazy and didn't do it that closely for everyone. I might go back over the people who still stand out after this analysis, though.

Spoiler: Continued Analysis

Revised Potential Scum:

Aegon Faction

:

kortul, Tammy, 4nxiety, Benmage

Other possible: Shinori, Jal, Regfan, Tierce, Magua

Stannis Faction

:

kortul, Jal, Shinori

Other Possible: 4nxiety, Benmage, Tammy, Magua

Interesting Notes:

In post 1407, bvoigt has 9 votes, 6 of which have already flipped town. There's a high chance that at least one of Pandora, Magua, or Plums Yo Mamma are scum.

The final DCLXVI wagon had 15 votes, 6 of which have flipped town, 2 of which were late scum votes. Additionally, the last 7 votes on DCLXVI are now dead, which leaves the early voters still alive. That means it's likely one or more of Tierce, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Tammy, kortul, and Plums Yo Mamma are scum.

In Post 1010, we have three major wagons on flipped players, 1 town and 2 scum. There's a decent possibility that an Aegon scum is in the group of Regfan, Feysal, Jal, and Shinori that were still keeping the SnowStorm wagon alive as two Aegon wagons were countering it.

The following players are of note when cross-referenced with the above lists:

Magua, Tierce, Regfan, Tammy, kortul, Jal, Shinori

. Plums Yo Mamma is of mild interest for showing up in two of my notes, even though they didn't score low in the previous analysis, so I went back and looked at them a bit further.

Spoiler: Bonus Analysis

Kortul, Tammy, Jal, Shinori, and Magua

showed up on pretty much every list (which were created from independent reasons), so that's where I'd look first for scum.

Vote: kortul

for showing up high on all the lists, he could very well be with either faction so I think that's the best place to start.

P-Edit: I don't think the points system can be adjusted for a possible split within the Aegon faction. I think you just have to take that (and possible bussing as well) into account when you look more closely at players individually (I certainly tried to think about those possibilities in my continued analysis). The idea behind the points system is to keep the values low so that if a scum player manages to do one thing that makes them slightly more likely to be town (such as bussing), those positive points can be outweighed by something else they do that is scummy (such as vote clumping or being on town wagons). It's very hard for scum players to avoid doing scummy things when you look at it from so many angles. Now, perhaps a case could be made for there to be more categories under which we assign points, but I feel like this initial run gave me a good idea of who I wanted to look more closely at.

BBmolla · Post Post #2442 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 8:52 am

In post 2439, Mastermind of Sin wrote:P-Edit: BBmolla that's because you suck at this game.

But I'm town

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2443 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:02 am

Which, coincidentally, I agree with. But you probably didn't read past the fact that you scored horribly to realize I think you're town, lol...

Lyanna Stark · Post Post #2444 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:28 am

MoS - did you read the post in which I voted shadow? I had a scum read on him, but stated that I knew I was going to be moving it soon. I had no idea the wagon was actually going to take off. There's no way with the way I presented it you could think I was trying to start a counter wagon. Pretty sure if I wanted to start a counter wagon, I'd at least make a case I thought would get people to jump on. Sure, on paper and in hindsight it looks like that, but if you go deeper, I'm not sure that you can confidently assign that to me. I moved my choose to minimum because I was starting to doubt my scum read on them but not enough to fully remove my vote.

Why are you just reducing things to numbers? Aren't you the one who said that the problem with the way people scum hunt today is that they don't look at motivations they just look at actions? Why aren't you digging deeper then? You're not even looking at interactions or what people said about scum or what scum said about people.

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2445 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:40 am

Like fuck I'm going to read 98 pages in-depth. I don't have that kind of time, and so the list of things I focus on has to be narrowed down in a fashion that takes far less time.

That said, you're misquoting me and not really looking at the point of what I said. In general, I believe that actions reveal motivations, and that you can't make conclusions based on actions without considering the motivations. That's why I started off looking at the actions and then delved a bit deeper to see if the actions matched possible scum motivations. If I had just run the numbers and then declared my suspicions based off that first post, that would be looking at actions without motivations (although even then it would already be a bit more in-depth than what you are referring to). For example, if I wasn't looking at motivations and other details I wouldn't have droppped Pandora or BBmolla off the lists from my first post. That doesn't mean I looked at every single person's interactions in-depth, though, and if you were paying attention you'd notice that I already said I didn't look *that* closely at ISOs.

Just because I have a list to work with and have placed a vote based on my current analysis doesn't mean that I won't go back and look more closely at those people later. I've already spent 3 hours on this game today, and it would have been another 3 hours if I'd tried to read in detail just the people who ended up on my list, much less the others who I was considering. Do you really think that everyone has the ability to make that kind of time investment into a game?

kortul · Post Post #2446 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:08 am

MoS, at first glance your method just rewards scum, who likes to bus the partners and avoid other major wagons, sitting on vanity wagons, and as in any statistical system the points you look for and the weights you use really change the results. It can be useful for you to pick a players to ISO (given 18 players alive and the number of pages), but that's about it.

You said that "points system is just a guideline for further analysis", but in the end came to conclusion that several players are scummy for showing "up on pretty much every list", which means that your conclusions ARE based on points system, not on detailed ISOs.

kortul · Post Post #2447 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:14 am

Also i think that somewhere on a road in your VCA you took a wrong turn, since the final Stannis list changed a lot, and in that final post you weren't really analyzing that faction...

In post 2433, Mastermind of Sin wrote:At least one
Stannis scum
is in this group:
Benmage, Magua, Shinori
(obviously I know it's not me)

In post 2434, Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Stannis Faction
possible:
Benmage, Shinori, BBmolla, Magua, 4nxiety

In post 2441, Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Stannis Faction
:
kortul, Jal, Shinori

Shinori · Post Post #2448 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:15 am

I have been prodded.

Thought I posted, I'm bad.

My preffered lynch targets are in between scumhunter, Magua, and MoS.

I don't like Scumhunters Day 4 play so far.

Lyanna Stark · Post Post #2449 (ISO) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:16 am

Didn't say you should spend more time MoS, and I certainly don't have that type of time either. Also, if I misquoted you, I didn't mean to, I'm repeating from memory as I can't even remember what game that came from.

As far as digging deepier, I'll totally admit to being self absorbed in this instance because I can totally see why through my votes/chooses someone could see me as Aegon aligned, but if you look deeper you'd have to ask yourself why did I spend day one complaining that I felt I was unable to be impartial where bvoigt was concerned and therefore couldn't get a read if we were partnered. Why did sapo replace in and call me scum immediately and question why bvoigt had a town read on me when they were defending bvoigt so strongly, then move me to ambivalence if we were partnered? Why did I avoid the bvoigt wagon when it was pretty clear he'd be going down that day or the next and would have known his claim was fake by voting for someone with not much reasoning at all? You say that I'm on all the lists, but I'm only on the dcl list because I happened to choose him, but would have also been on the list if I hadn't chose him so your list is pretty artificial and if you would actually have looked at my interaction with dcl. Yes, scum can argue and bus, but look at that interaction then tell me it makes sense for us as partners.

These things you did not do, and I realize my scum game is severely lacking but none of this makes sense from a Tammy scum perspective.