A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[kortul]

@Shinori

, wait, take a look at the two previous pages, there were questions for you.

[Shinori]

oh, let me check.

[Shinori]

Checking over the past 3 pages I didnt really see any actual questions for me. The only thing I saw close to it was Pandora's case on me and people's responses to that. I didnt see anyone specifically asking me anything.

[Lyanna Stark]

I think kortul said you a couple questions...don't remember how far back that as though.

[kortul]

Hmm, there were unasked questions in Pandora case you found (and probably some farther posts, don't remember all of them). For example, i would like to know why did you check Tierce.

[Shinori]

Oh, I checked tierce because I was second guessing myself. I also remember someone I thought was town saying they thought tierce was scum, I THINK, which had to do with me second guessing myself. I also wasn't quite sure of a better inspect target, I didn't forsee anyone under pressure to choose to do the kill since they knew I was follower.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS, at first glance your method just rewards scum, who likes to bus the partners and avoid other major wagons, sitting on vanity wagons, and as in any statistical system the points you look for and the weights you use really change the results. It can be useful for you to pick a players to ISO (given 18 players alive and the number of pages), but that's about it.

You said that "points system is just a guideline for further analysis", but in the end came to conclusion that several players are scummy for showing "up on pretty much every list", which means that your conclusions ARE based on points system, not on detailed ISOs.

Cases where the follow-up analysis supports the conclusion of the points system indicate players who are most likely to be scum, because not only did they exhibit base behaviors that can be indicative as scum, but the timing and positioning of those actions further supports that possibility. Just because the points system is part of my results doesn't mean it was the only part. Several people who were indicated as possible scum due to the points system are not people I suspect, because the follow-up analysis didn't support them being scum.

Also i think that somewhere on a road in your VCA you took a wrong turn, since the final Stannis list changed a lot, and in that final post you weren't really analyzing that faction...

At least one

Stannis scum

is in this group:

Benmage, Magua, Shinori

(obviously I know it's not me)

Stannis Faction

possible:

Benmage, Shinori, BBmolla, Magua, 4nxiety

Stannis Faction

:

kortul, Jal, Shinori

You'll note that Benmage and Magua (the only two guys you claim "dropped off") are still in line as possible Stannis, just not quite as likely as they were before. Just because I narrowed my lists down to two tiers for each faction doesn't mean they're no longer suspicious or can't be in the Stannis faction.

Also, how the hell can you claim that my conclusions are completely based on the points system in one post and then in the next post turn around and question why my suspicions changed during follow-up analysis and don't match the initial points results? That doesn't make any sense at all.

[Zdenek]

MoS do you think that scum would be more inclined to bus on a choose wagon on day one than on a voting wagon that day?

[Zdenek]

bvoigt (9) - Plum's Yo Mamma, greenknight, SnowStorm, Dolorous Edd, Tyene Sand, Pandora, MagnaofIllusion, Seraphim, StefanB

If there's scum on the wagon its Plum or Tierce.

[kortul]

MoS, timing and positioning without deep ISO is meh. Lyanna already started explaining this, i can add that replacements and reread influence timing and positioning as well.

I do not "claim", i quote your own words. And the next post shows that you missed something on a road. I hope that regardless of your alignment you are looking for scum, so pointing out things to consider should help.

Anyway, based on your response i think you are not really interested in my input, so i won't farther comment on this.

[Mastermind of Sin]

You're directly contradicting yourself, kortul.

[Minimum]

Also, reading Saporient's claim, I suspect that their scum team probably consists of people who are inactive or fairly weak because of the failure to come up with at least a reasonable claim for their question to the mod.

Self-watcher is something that does straddle the line between active and passive so it doesn't strike me as that unreasonable? Given the flip, it might even have been a more plausible explanation than the real one.

[Zdenek]

Yoo hoo, MoS,

MoS do you think that scum would be more inclined to bus on a choose wagon on day one than on a voting wagon that day?

Also, reading Saporient's claim, I suspect that their scum team probably consists of people who are inactive or fairly weak because of the failure to come up with at least a reasonable claim for their question to the mod.

Self-watcher is something that does straddle the line between active and passive so it doesn't strike me as that unreasonable? Given the flip, it might even have been a more plausible explanation than the real one.

That's not the part of the claim I was thinking of. Recall,

I'm about to go to bed, but it looks like our claim is warranted.

We are

Barbrey Dustin

. Our flavor is that we hate the Starks. We're supporting the Lannisters mainly out of hatred of the Starks. The flavor makes numerous references to the remains of the Starks, the implication being that our enduring hatred is out of touch with reality.

Our only ability is called

Knick-knack paddywack, give a dog a bone Ned Stark 'aint [sic] coming home

. The ability is described as a self-watcher ability. It's a Passive ability, but I didn't notice that it was so labeled explicitly until Shadow pointed it out. If anyone targets us, we will be told who targeted us. If no one targets us, we will receive no result. Both N1 and N2, we received no result.

Well, it's a bit late for it to matter either way, but you've just been caught in a lie. Can you figure out what it is, based solely on information that is in the thread?

My assumption was that the lie is that they get no result when no one visits them, which is contrary to both shinori's and shadow1's results when they aren't roleblocked.

[Lyanna Stark]

On page 19, Mina says that ces is confident in his ability thread benmage.

ces

I'm assuming you have a town read on benmage based on you saying that I should play around benmage?

If plum mamma is scum, they are probably not Aegon aligned.

Did I say earlier that bb was likely town, if not, he is.

The troll buddying thing MoS is doing to Mina is annoying...probably not alignment relevant though. I know what environment I can read MoS to some extent and it hasn't really happened this game yet so I'm without a read completely. Would not object to a lynch of him though because of this absence.

Oh, Post 507 makes me think of feysal as not likely Stannis aligned. This is a type of not sure/frustrated read that I don't expect scum giving...it's similar to what I've been talking about with respect to me ns my inability to read bvoigt. As his partner, he doesn't have a reason to read him this way.

Bvoigt's Post 510 has him saying that th following people are town: benmage, Has/magua, (defending Starbucks in a sense), Hyp/shinori, Pandora. Calls Sala scum.

I'm not reading mjayes posts again. I made a summary somewhere.

Bvoigt in Post 535 defends starbucks some more, claims bb was role fishing and calls me town. Says he hasn't notice edd or minimum.

still uncertain about jal, but think once pine starts posting the reading should be easier.

Okay, so I'm having a weird bit of paranoia about the people calling me town. Now for the people who have played with me, this isn't such an issue in a sense, because ~meta~ but I also don't think I've been all that townie this game. I'm almost half convinced that scum have just said "call er town she's easier to deal with that way" and think that tose who have expressed suspicion of me like jal, BB, and to a lesser extent MoS look better for expressing suspicion of me. Is that weird?

I now want nachos and should probably make dinner soon.

Jal comes put of the snowstorm convo looking pretty bad, but eh, she looks bad in most...

Feeling better about minimum town,

Tyene Post 569 just had me in hysterics over the call me paranoid maybe. Have you heard the rendition of "you're a scumbag, let's lynch you baby" as performed by farastark for scumminamum? If not, ask him to send you the link. It's hilarious. (this has nothing to do with the current game, btw)

Tyene Post 571 you indicate a scum read on MoS...what is your read on him now?

Benmage is town...most likely.

Post 611 slight defense of MoS and Post 611 is his case on sala.

Green knight raises a similar point in Post 619 that I've been feeling about feysal.

Shinori's likely town...any time I doubt this, slap me. It's mostly paranoia based on the fact that he's been scum in every game we have experience with each other so far...however, I'm sticking him in my don't care if it's a mislynch pile like Scumhunter due to th lack of activity and my desire to not want him near lylo ATM.

Townie read on tyene getting stronger, paranoia aside.

Oh have I told you that pandora is town? They are. Oh for magua, in case he actually reads this, cuz he's all metametameta. I think when you've seen a person from all aspects they become easier to read to you. So I've been town when shadowed has been town and scum, and vice versa...and we've been scum in opposing factions before. I've correctly read her as scum when I was town, and misread her when I was town and she was town. I think when there are that many combinations you're able to read people better, which makes me really super confident in my pandora read. (there will be, of course, a scream heard round the world if I'm wrong on this one).

Which makes me wonder magua, if you're all about meta, why haven't you used it in your read on me? Have I convinced you metas not all its cracked up to be! :p

Eh...that's to the bottom of 27...need to plug in my iPad...again notes as reading, I'll compile later.

[Minimum]

My assumption was that the lie is that they get no result when no one visits them, which is contrary to both shinori's and shadow1's results when they aren't roleblocked.

Nope, that seems fine to me given their ability was a passive. The lie was that Edd obviously targeted Sapo Night 2.

That is correct, Tammy.

[Zdenek]

My assumption was that the lie is that they get no result when no one visits them, which is contrary to both shinori's and shadow1's results when they aren't roleblocked.

Nope, that seems fine to me given their ability was a passive. The lie was that Edd obviously targeted Sapo Night 2.

That is correct, Tammy.

Okay. My point is rendered irrelevant.

Tammy, would you agree that this is a reasonable summary of your reads?

Minimum (Mina/CES) -town
4nxi3ty - fencesitting
Tyene Sand (Tierce) -town
kortul - no read
Shinori - town
Plum's Yo Mamma (Nacho/Plum) - ??, but irrelevant
Magua - feels good about, but he's lurking
Regfan - feels really good about
Zdenek - feels really good about
Benmage - town
Mastermind of Sin - looks better, null
Feysal - not stannis aligned, not argon aligned, but agrees with GK
Pandora (Shadoweh/Quilford) - town
Scumhunter - town
BBmolla - town
Jal - null look bad

[Lyanna Stark]

Have I called nearly everyone town? By the old gods my reads are useless this game. I know that I feel good about Pandora, BBMolla, Zdenek and Regfan. I feel decently good about Shinori, Minimum, Benmage, Scumhunter, Tyene...I felt good about Magua, but now that he's been lurking I don't feel good about him anymore and am kicking myself for feeling good about him in the first place. On a gut level I feel okay about Mockingjaye, but on paper they dont look so good. Kortul looks pretty good as well, but there's something holding me back on him...I haven't decided what it is yet.

Everyone that I said is probably not Aegon aligned comes with its own caveat though. If they don't know each other, relational tells won't be present, so it's best to look at what Sala/Sapo said about them.

[Eddard Stark]

Scumhunter has been prodded

[Pandora]

Well if you look at what you just wrote, there isn't anything -bad- about anyone in there. You name 12 people you feel/have felt decent about. How do you feel about the rest?

Zdenek, Miss Stark doesn't seem to be on your scum list, so I have to ask, where are you going with this interogation? The point about Sapo's lie is probably still true since any competent team would have pointed out how dumb that self-watcher claim was. Really one has to wonder why they thought it was reasonable at all.

I'm holding my head in pain here. As much as it hurts me to say, I think even someone like Shinori would show a bit more worry when he's being pushed as a suspect instead of uh.. how would you describe that reaction.. yes. I really don't know what to do with people who are too oblivious to react under pressure. I'm also not sure where to go from here. Anxiety seems too much like 'the next scapegoat' at this point, because this town is seriously sinking into lazy lynch syndrome. I can't even sheep NotTierce because she's not doing anything. -_- It feels like there are alot of people who have gotten this far by promising content someday over the rainbow.

[Magua]

WHY IS MAGUA LURKING???

Because I've yet to engage in some emotional back-and-forth that has me F5'ing the page every minute.

Other stuff:

Pine replacing Jal is doubleplusgood.

Zdenek-townread is increased.

kortul-scumread is increased. Started off with a good question to MoS, but that's just where it stays. Question to MoS, question to Shinori. No reactions, no reads, no responses to analyze. But he's voting Scumhunter, so, it's all good.

Mastermind of Sin's stuff smells like busywork. Tammy already noted the bussing-bias with bvoigt. On the one hand, there's the "He posted his information even though it puts him in a scummy light" (from the Stannis results); on the other hand, there's the "He posted his information even though it puts him in a scummy light, and yet doesn't seem to care that his assumptions might be wrong." It seems like the sort of thing I like to do as scum -- collect data and present it in a framework that suits my purposes (Zdenek saw me do this in War in Heaven III). It looks impressive and frames the conversation.

Despite this, Scumhunter still needs some death.

[Zdenek]

Zdenek, Miss Stark doesn't seem to be on your scum list, so I have to ask, where are you going with this interogation? The point about Sapo's lie is probably still true since any competent team would have pointed out how dumb that self-watcher claim was. Really one has to wonder why they thought it was reasonable at all.

The reason that I don't think that the point stands is that the lie they were caught in was on that they couldn't have been accounted for at night. They were somewhat limited about what they could have claimed because they needed a role that could have justified their question to the mod.

Tammy might not be on my scum-list, but she doesn't get a free pass, and forgetting to scum hunt is something that happens to scum. I noticed that she seemed to have a pile of null or town reads. It's something that want to keep track of.

Since I noticed that about Tammy, I decided to do the same thing for everyone. There is no question that some of these reads are stale, but here is what I could glean from people's ISO's:

Spoiler:

For minimum:

2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - town
Mockingjaye3) 4nxi3ty - scum
6) Tyene Sand (Tierce) - town
Petyr Baelish7) kortul - town
Hyperion8) Shinori - unclear
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - town?, but irrelevant
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - null, more likely town than scum.
14) Regfan - town
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - no read
18) Benmage - town
19) Mastermind of Sin - null, thinks positively about
21) Feysal - null
22) Pandora (Hydra) - probtown
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - town
25) BBmolla - not confident that he's town
27) Jal - leaning town


Mockingjaye (not enough to do this with anx, yet)

1) Minimum (Mina/CES) - Scum
2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - never mentions
6) Tyene Sand (Tierce) - no read
Petyr Baelish7) kortul - no read
Hyperion8) Shinori - maybe town
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - town,null but irrelevant
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - scum/null
14) Regfan - town/null
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - no read
18) Benmage - no read
19) Mastermind of Sin - scum/null
21) Feysal - Town
22) Pandora (Hydra) - no read
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - nullish scum
25) BBmolla - no read
27) Jal - no read (Anxiety thinks Jal is scum.)

Tierce:

1) Minimum (Mina/CES) - town
2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - town
Mockingjaye3) 4nxi3ty - no read.
Petyr Baelish7) kortul - town
Hyperion8) Shinori - town
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - town?, but irrelevant
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - town
14) Regfan - town
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - scum, lyncher?
18) Benmage - no read
19) Mastermind of Sin - weak scum read
21) Feysal - weak town? weak scum?
22) Pandora (Hydra) - town
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - starbuck was town, but she suggests that scumhunter is trolling with his Jamie Claim
25) BBmolla - weak town
27) Jal - isn't scum, but perhaps that's weakened

Kortul:

He's made his reads clear. post 2394

Shinori:

1) Minimum (Mina/CES) - scum
2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - town
Mockingjaye3) 4nxi3ty - no read
6) Tyene Sand (Tierce) -town
Petyr Baelish7) kortul - no read
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - town
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - scum
14) Regfan - town
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - no read
18) Benmage - town
19) Mastermind of Sin - scum
21) Feysal - town?
22) Pandora (Hydra) - no read
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - scum
25) BBmolla - no read
27) Jal - no read

Magua:

It's clear.

Regfan:

Clear.

Benmage: It's hard to actually tell because of his willingness to lynch town.

1) Minimum (Mina/CES) - town
2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - town
Mockingjaye3) 4nxi3ty - town
6) Tyene Sand (Tierce) - town
Petyr Baelish7) kortul - null feeling better
Hyperion8) Shinori - scum
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - plum
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - scum?
14) Regfan - town
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - scum?
19) Mastermind of Sin - town
21) Feysal - scum
22) Pandora (Hydra) - town
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - town
25) BBmolla - scum
27) Jal - scum?

MoS:

Clear from his recent posting

Feysal:

1) Minimum (Mina/CES) - town
2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - town
Mockingjaye3) 4nxi3ty - town
6) Tyene Sand (Tierce) - leaning town
Petyr Baelish7) kortul - town
Hyperion8) Shinori - scum?
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - probable town
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - null?
14) Regfan - town
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - null?
18) Benmage - leaning town
19) Mastermind of Sin - scum, then feeling better
22) Pandora (Hydra) - town
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - scum
25) BBmolla- town
27) Jal-null

Pandora:

1) Minimum (Mina/CES) - null
2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - town
Mockingjaye3) 4nxi3ty - town
6) Tyene Sand (Tierce) - town
Petyr Baelish7) kortul - town
Hyperion8) Shinori - scum
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - null
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - null?
14) Regfan - town
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - town
18) Benmage - scum
19) Mastermind of Sin - town
21) Feysal - scum
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - null, scum
25) BBmolla - null
27) Jal - not scum


Starbuck/Scumhunter

No point, just awful


BBMolla:

Pretty clear

Jal:

1) Minimum (Mina/CES) - scum?
2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy) - scum
Mockingjaye3) 4nxi3ty - null, scum?
6) Tyene Sand (Tierce) - scum, not with argon
Petyr Baelish7) kortul -null/scum
Hyperion8) Shinori - town
10) Plum's Yo Mamma - ??
hasdgfas Albert B. Rampage12) Magua - town?
14) Regfan -town
pappums rat Amrun Seraphim15) Zdenek - no read
18) Benmage - scum?
19) Mastermind of Sin - no read
21) Feysal - null/scummy?
22) Pandora (Hydra) -??
Starbuck 24) Scumhunter - ???
25) BBmolla - ??

Some points:

Considering her lack of activity, MockingJaye looks pretty good.

It is hard to actually tell with Benmage because of his stated willingness to lynch town reads.

There was no point to doing this with Starbuck because she appears to have no suspects

I found it hard to get a precise idea of what Jal thought about people because it's not always clear while she's interacting with people.
It's basically useless on the recent replacements

People with a definite lack of scum reads:
Tammy
Minimum
Tierce
Feysal

[Lyanna Stark]

Well if you look at what you just wrote, there isn't anything -bad- about anyone in there. You name 12 people you feel/have felt decent about. How do you feel about the rest?

Can we carpet bomb them and see what's left in the rubble? Because, no really, that's how I feel.

[Lyanna Stark]

WHY IS MAGUA LURKING???

Because I've yet to engage in some emotional back-and-forth that has me F5'ing the page every minute.

I'd start yelling at you if that's what it took but I took a solemn vow to not be so emotional/annoying/crazy this game. Sorry

[Lyanna Stark]

Tammy might not be on my scum-list, but she doesn't get a free pass, and forgetting to scum hunt is something that happens to scum. I noticed that she seemed to have a pile of null or town reads. It's something that want to keep track of.

People with a definite lack of scum reads:
Tammy
Minimum
Tierce
Feysal

I'm hainvg a hard time with scum reads this game that's for sure, it's not about forgetting, it's about having trouble.

I don't think minimum belongs on your list though as they've expressed a scum read on mockinganx and jalpine.

Although I do think it's worth noting that in each of your people without scum reads, it's people who don't tend to make lists so it's more a playstle preference than it is a lack of reads.

[Zdenek]

I don't think minimum belongs on your list though as they've expressed a scum read on mockinganx and jalpine.

Although I do think it's worth noting that in each of your people without scum reads, it's people who don't tend to make lists so it's more a playstle preference than it is a lack of reads

Okay, they have a scum read on Jal. That brings them from one to two scum reads. They certainly stay on the list.

Having scum reads is not a play-style thing.