A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Regfan]

Hold the fuck up. No ones hammering until I get time to do the big sit down I want to do in a few hours from now to look at Feysal (4-5 in all likelihood).

Initial impression is still that I don't like this at all. Most of the points that I'm understanding put up against Feysal are meta proven to be null and really are just more of an attack of playstyle (Him posting bigger posts less frequently then others post and him focusing on a sole target wanting to have them lynched rather then working on everyone at once.) Anyway still very much want 4nxiety lynched, not understanding peoples shifting town reads on him at all. Someone explain it to me, with that said I'll settle for a Timeater lynch happily.

I don't actually like Timeaters 'explanation' of why he insta-claimed his role, comes across as forced still and the link to the thread of him saying 'town should be see-through and genuine' doesn't really explain his moves if he's claiming that he didn't' realize he was being voted or wagoned at the time. Really comes across as him trying to force-through a town-tell rather than anything else. Not just that though but in Post 2612 I mentioned that Scumhunter had claimed their role-name and then in Post 2618 he insinuates he doesn't know that his role name has been claimed, then in Post 2621 he goes 'oh fuck my role name has already been claimed which doesn't match in order of thought process. Either 1) He didn't read my initial post carefully and skimmed past the fact that Jaime was already claimed which is scummy given that there was only two lines in my post directed towards him or 2) He knew that Scumhunter had claimed Jaime from reading my post or even beforehand making the following 'ace up my sleeves' completley fabricated. In 1) it's not just that he didn't read my post properly but instead of going 'ace up my sleeve' 'im jaime booyah' he goes 'ace up my sleeve' 'oh names already claimed' which means instead of just posting it instantly he actually went back and looked through Scumhunters ISO which I can't understand the motivation behind as town at all.

[4nxi3ty]

Majority of your posts contain little to discuss deeply about and the greyscalling conversation lasted more than one post

broad generalization about my play and acting like I spent a significant amount of time on that greyscale idea?

the 'Think MoS is town because VCA doesnt' push on anyone' is relatively illogical since scums aim isn't as much to push on someone in a 28 player game but moreso to avoid the lynch themselves and faking contributions and efforts via something like a VCA does that.

thats not true, scum will push a lynch to keep the lynch off themselves or their buddies.

Your argument agaisnt MoS is he used a VCA to justify a vote on someone he thought was scum earlier, kortul(ie. he needed something to fake a scumread)

I'm saying scum are more likely to use a VCA to justify a jump on a more popular target. Why would he put all that effort into justifying a vote for kortul when he wasn't even close to being lynched? especially when he could easily just point to the original reason for thinking kortul was scum.

The main reason I find you scummy is, ime, you are much more objective with your reads as town. Here it feels like you are much more concerned with portraying someone's actions as scummy rather than looking at the motivations behind them.

Fair enough.

Vote: Feysal

Let's speed lynch him too, just for yucks.

Why do you think it is a good idea to sheep plums yo mama andor zdenek?

[Regfan]

Ok. Time to dissect Plums case on Feysal, will see if any of it has real merit.

#1. Nachos Post 2530 brings up the point of "Feysal having one scum read = Scum". Wish I could find or devote more time to linkages but a mere summary will have to suffice here. Feysal as a player tends to not cope super well in larger games, he struggles to keep up and therefore cuts down the number of players he pays attention to or focuses on, he normally doesn't pick up more than one suspect, he'll comment here and there on everyone else but overall he'll focus his actions and movements on getting his strongest scum read lynched as town. Best example that comes to mind is AFFC where he pushed all out on MoI if my memory is correct and he showed tunneling tendencys in G v E as well although he did branch out slightly more there too. So really the 'So few focus = Scum' doesn't mesh with Feysal at all.

#2. Plums Post 2545 brings up three things, 1) Being his stance on Staeg, 2) Being his stance on Shinori and 3) Being his response to Scumhunter. I'll go backwards, I find 3) to be a town-tell from him rather than anything else, as scum he's locking himself into stating a 'saying' or 'words' later on that fits with his fake-claim which isn't something that I think Scum!Feysal would do. I also think him lying about getting a messaage like that would be suicide, in other words he's not lying. That means that he legitimately got a worded PM, it's possible he got one that state words that are something aimed for scum but in those cases I don't think he'd bring it up, so yes long story short his statement of recieving the prodding words directed towards Scumhunter is actually a reasonably strong town-tell rather than anything else. In regards to 1) I can understand where you're coming from but disagree, I was also caught up with his claim being 'weird' and as for 2) I actually really liked the points he brought up against Shinori and don't see how they're scum tells in the slightest. (Did that really weird order, 3->1->2, not sure why even).

#3. Nachos Post 2564 about DCL/Feysals interactions. Will accept that my Feysal/DCL not partners! is nowhere near as strong now as it was in the past but at the same time think the argument you're making for them being partners is incredibly weak and highly due to confirmation-bias rather than anything else.

So all up I think the case is horseshit. Lynch Timeater or 4nxiety over Feysal anyday.

thats not true, scum will push a lynch to keep the lynch off themselves or their buddies. Your argument agaisnt MoS is he used a VCA to justify a vote on someone he thought was scum earlier, kortul(ie. he needed something to fake a scumread). I'm saying scum are more likely to use a VCA to justify a jump on a more popular target. Why would he put all that effort into justifying a vote for kortul when he wasn't even close to being lynched? especially when he could easily just point to the original reason for thinking kortul was scum. The main reason I find you scummy is, ime, you are much more objective with your reads as town. Here it feels like you are much more concerned with portraying someone's actions as scummy rather than looking at the motivations behind them.

Ok. Lets for the sake of it say that MoS is scum, he either has 1 other partner or 2 other partners in all likelihood. What's the likelihood of him having to need to defend them or avoid them getting lynched with those odds? Answer is reasonably low, with there being 17 or whatever people alive the odds are probably close to something like 1/10 of his partner being run up therefore his motive behind the VCA would be less defend partners and moreso avoid getting lynched himself. I don't think he went into it entirely aiming to come out of it voting Kortul nor do I think that was his pure motivation behind it. I think his aim was to go in and do something he thought he would get town read of and also something that would allow him to throw down a vote while adding little real justification behind. Not just that but doing something that would allow him to change votes at will. For instance he could easily say "Voting X because they have a lot of points on my scale" and the vote is something that he wouldn't really have to explain in any more depth because of his VCA which is why his actions make perfect sense as scum. With all that said I don't know exactly what to make of his replace out and am in multiple minds about it so at this point really not willing to lynch AV until I see more from him or get a solid read on MoS's replace out. (If you want a little opening into my thought process it's that MoS prefers scum to town from memory and know that he's better as scum than town, also know he puts more effort in as scum than town which makes his replace out less likely to come from ScumMoS but on the flip side I know as scum MoS gets aggravated easily with mod decisions, mod setup and partners, Plums game is perfect proof of it and I think he might have used the entire argument debacle to get out and clear his name from a game he couldn't stand as scum and if the case would mean his partners are people he's not super respectful of. Still trying to process it all but you see where I'm at now).

[Regfan]

Bleh. 3 days to go and no real likelihood for any more extensions. (If I die though you're lynching 4nxiety without a doubt).

Vote: Timeater

People need to seriously pick up there activity for the next few days.

[Thor665]

Hold the Smurf up. No ones hammering until I get time to do the big sit down I want to do in a few hours from now to look at Feysal (4-5 in all likelihood).

Who is the scum on the wagon?

Why do you think it is a good idea to sheep plums yo mama andor zdenek?

It isn't a good idea?

[Regfan]

Who is the scum on the wagon?

I really wouldn't be suprised to find Plum be Stannis scum with one of 4nxiety/Timeater and their push on Feysal being saving partner. Know 4nxiety/DCL/Nacho all fit really well as partners, don't know how Timeater fits with Nacho/DCL, might look at it later but we find out Nachos alignment end of tomorrow for certain. Mollas town, Pandoras town, Zdeneks town, Tammys town, AV I'm undecided on, was scum on MoS all the way until his replace out, not so sure now.

[Thor665]

Why are you so sure on Timeater when, on Day 3 you're still unable to tie him in functionally to a scum group?

[Thor665]

Or Day 4, even more embarrassing.

[Regfan]

He fits well with both scum-teams (From memory, know he was one of the two most likely to fit with Bvoigt/Sapor too) I just don't know if he fits with Nacho as well.

[Timeater]

i still havent read this game sigh

[Timeater]

So all up I think the case is horseshit. Lynch Timeater or 4nxiety over Feysal anyday.

stop being retarded reg

or stop being maf

[Thor665]

@Timeater - Why aren't you voting RegFan?

[Eddard Stark]

Day 4, Votecount 15

Thor665 (2) - 4nxi3ty, Minimum
Timeater (4) - Magua, Feysal, kortul, Regfan
Magua (1) - Timeater

Feysal (8) - Plums Yo Mamma, BBmolla, Pandora, Zdenek, Lyanna Stark, AurorosVox, Benmage, Thor665

Mastermind of Sin (1) - Tyene Sand

Not Voting (1):

Shinori

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline

: 9th October at 19:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-09 14:30:47)
kortul is V/la

Prodding Feysal

[Regfan]

Thor, read the game or at least skim it and unvote Feysal, I don't want Timeater or anyone else to have a chance to blitz hammer ending the day.

stop being retarded reg. or stop being maf

I like how you've ignored the entirety of Post 2675 where I explain my scum-read on you and instead call me 'retarded/scum'.

[Lyanna Stark]

I can help with that.

VOTE: timeater

Part of the reason it's difficult to place the timeater slot is because day one Starbuck made a suggestion and lurked away most of the resulting pressure before replacing out. Scumhunter replaced, read only his predecessors iso and nothing else and spent the next two game days essentially going "MoI's a scumlord, regfan is scum for expecting me to contribute, I'm soooooo lazy" and then never came back.

Still might go back to the feysal wagon if necessary, but we've got three days and no reason to hammer right now.

[BBmolla]

Regfan you did this shit about 5 days too late.

[Tammy]

The main reason I find you scummy is, ime, you are much more objective with your reads as town. Here it feels like you are much more concerned with portraying someone's actions as scummy rather than looking at the motivations behind them.

Where do you see this specifically?

[Lyanna Stark]

The main reason I find you scummy is, ime, you are much more objective with your reads as town. Here it feels like you are much more concerned with portraying someone's actions as scummy rather than looking at the motivations behind them.

Where do you see this specifically?

Sorries.

[Thor665]

Thor, read the game or at least skim it and unvote Feysal, I don't want Timeater or anyone else to have a chance to blitz hammer ending the day.

Timeater is probably town.
I would be fine with a blitz hammer that ends the day.

[Zdenek]

First I try to put some effort into this game with what little time I have (there's a reason I'm only in one game right now), and immediately you come after me for not putting MORE effort into the game. And then I have to spend the rest of my time explaining to your fucking retarded brain why I'm not doing MORE to scumhunt, when YOU are the exact reason I don't have time to do MORE. So seriously, fuck off and get off your goddamn high horse.

I'm done with you and your bitch ass.

Mod: Replace me

MoS pulled this spazz (albeit over something differrent, I think) and replace out move as scum in Consulmaker III. That game was lost to the crash, but there's some over lap between that game and this one, so someone might be able to remember it better than me.

Was that the game where he replaced out after fighting with grey ice? He mentioned that one in GvE. I was taking the replace out from the fight as a bit of a town tell, actually.

Yes, that's the game.

And another thing, in GvE, MoS pulled the do nothing until people might lynch me trick and then do something a bit over the top. In that game he decided to argue that after tunneling on each other most of day one that Tammy and I were probably scum buddies. I know it's not the same thing, but it fits a pattern of doing nothing, then doing something controversial.

Meta-wise, I'd have to say that MoS is scum.

I had a leaning scum read on jal, but this is not a reliable scum tell for pine though I will say its odd he replaced in if he wasn't going to have time, and that shoot I forgot to bookmark is a pretty reliable scum tell anyway, but replacing out isn't a scum tell. I've been in three games where pine replaced out and two were town where one was scum.

A sample size of 3 is irrelevant (and 1 out of 3 is just average anyway, so it's not a real sign it's not). Pine dislikes and lurks as scum.

These are not examples.

I was scum with Pine in AFFC, my impression was that he had a great time.

Mastermind of Sin's replace out is either a towntell or a nulltell, but is certainly not a scumtell. I was reading it as a towntell (replace out due to actual anger at being misrepresented). Adjusting slightly after Zdenek saying he did this as scum in Consulmaker III, but I'm still not seeing it as a scumtell -- I'm seeing it as something that MoS does as an emotional response, making it a nulltell.

Have you seen him do it as town?

Continue to have a scumread on this slot. Timeater replacing hasn't really changed anything. Immediate claim in first post just screams of having ISOd his predecessor, but then he denies having done that.

Yep.

Alright, so inspired by Regfan's defense of Feysal I checked Feysal's play in AFFC:

Looking at what's left of AFFC, Feysal's posting rate is something like half of what it was in that game. This already sends off warning bells. Early on he gave a few town-reads, he attacked MoI and voting Magister Ludi for doing nothing. He continued to give town reads - one on the leading wagon and push Ludi and argue with MoI. He attacked Magua and MoI. So he had three scum reads: Ludi (that was early and later he voted him because of his gambit), Magua and MoI, with MoI being the strongest. He also thought that Plum and me were scum. Magua became town to him because of his interactions with MoI. Finally he voted Plum because of someone else's case.

Looking at this, I disagree with Regfan's point #1 about Feysal.

The only reason Timeater might be town is the early VT claim, which is a pretty risky move coming from scum, I still think lynching him is fine.

[AurorusVox]

Thor, read the game or at least skim it and unvote Feysal, I don't want Timeater or anyone else to have a chance to blitz hammer ending the day.

Timeater is probably town.
I would be fine with a blitz hammer that ends the day.

Time is not the lynch today.
Feysal is a superior lynch to Time.

[AurorusVox]

Oops there was meant to be a QFT with that.

[Timeater]

I

DONT

HAVE

TIME

FOR

THIS

GAME

RIGHT

NOW

YES I CLAIMED SO WHAT THATS IRRELEVANT ALL YOUR POINTS ABOUT IT ARE CONTRIVED AND OVERDEVELOPED

IM JAIME FUCKING LANNISTER

DO YOU UNDERSTAND

JAIME

FUCKING

LANNISTER

I WILL -TRY- TO READ THE GAME SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT I SIMPLY CANNOT RIGHT NOW

[Timeater]

should I hammer feysal???

[Timeater]

nvm he's l-2

and we got 2 days